How Far Will The Market Fall?

[sptrawler]

it took until 1931 for Andrew Mellon to write these words for President Hoover



- not a happy time.

Good post Dona IMO.
Sometimes the reset button does need pushing, especially in the capitalist system,otherwise the gap between the haves and the have nots gets too wide.
The gap will always be there and it is a bit like an elastic band it gets stretched so far, then it twangs back and so the process repeats.
Everyone has been saying, how is the post GFC money printing asset bubble going to deflate, well this could well be the 'pop'.
Just my thoughts.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The gap will always be there and it is a bit like an elastic band it gets stretched so far, then it twangs back and so the process repeats.

Just my thoughts.

your "Allow for the worst, hope for the best" is a neat encapsulation of how we should 'manage' things. The Mellon quote is memorable because of its extreme position-taking. But it took two years for such a view to be put and not shot down. The Dantean descent, indeed.

Market's up today, at open. RBA extraordinary meeting today likely to have a further interest rate drop (useless) and QE buying of Govt bonds to introduce cash to the system.

Eventually we'll have a social wage for all (NewStart); lets call it FreshStart

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Today's action: slipper, dipper, by no means a ripper today (except as a shredder)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

RBA at 2:30 ? can't see it!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So tech/a, is CBA a Buy, Hold or Sell ..LT monthly
View attachment 101446

It would be nice to see some volume although I've looked at a 10 year chart and it didn't help me.

It looks like a descending triangle from 2014 about to break down now. It's one of the stronger signals as is the fact it has been range-bound since 2016 and a break down is even stronger indication of further falls.

I'd not buy CBA yet.

The fall is often commensurate with the range which puts CBA at $50 which is support and resistance 2010 to 2013.

Next buy level if it breaks through that is $30 which again earlier was support and resistance.

Thanks for putting the chart up.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

You all know I am more a permabear but I did compare historic XAo (and approximate before 1950 to population growth since the 50s:

I see a reasonable level for xao around 5500 so we are probably now undervalued.Yes..I say that
This does NOT mean the market will not go lower but it means it makes sense IMHO to start reinvesting for those who went out before that crash.Obviously taking the actual virus into consideration..Virgin might be a good price but .....

 

[matty77]

What happens when a recession is announced? What happens when companies start downgrading forecast or going broke? I still think there is PLENTY of downside coming up. The market has priced in fear so far, the facts, actual numbers and bad news from companies will turn up in another month or two then its going to plummet. OR it goes up... whos to say.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

LLC illustrates well on the chart how we should be looking at trading the XAO.

Intraday traders should go Daily
Daily traders should go Weekly.
Weekly traders should go Monthly ......

I'm awaiting LLC to test $6.70, but it will take a time with bull traps to get there imo.

Possibly in the channel outlined in the attached 10 year monthly chartchart. Who knows?

gg

 

[sptrawler]

What happens when a recession is announced? What happens when companies start downgrading forecast or going broke? I still think there is PLENTY of downside coming up. The market has priced in fear so far, the facts, actual numbers and bad news from companies will turn up in another month or two then its going to plummet. OR it goes up... whos to say.

Always remember, not all companies will go broke, the trick is only investing in those that dont.
Some will look cheap and some will be cheap.
Buy wisely, not just on price, opportunity knocks.

 

[MrChow]

-30% has more or less priced in a recession.

It's just a matter of whether it's one of those historic ones like 1929, GFC, Dot Com.

 

[matty77]

Always remember, not all companies will go broke, the trick is only investing in those that dont.
Some will look cheap and some will be cheap.
Buy wisely, not just on price, opportunity knocks.

Yup I agree lots wont go bust but plenty still will.

Opportunity knocks for sure.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

What's really hard to believe is that it's been a one way move since the end of February. Where are the rallies or counter-trends ?
I would like to look at the other crashes and bear markets all the way back to the start of the century but not on a static graph but on one where you can scroll along. Is there any resource online to do that? Even if it's a line graph ?
Google graphs and other sites I looked at only goes back about 40years max. Current crash looks so steep, somewhat like the 1987 flash crash. I would like to go all the way back to 1929 crash and earlier. Is there an online resource for historical charts up to modern day ?

Found the US comparison I was mentioning earlier:

 

[kid hustlr]

Why is there multiple in 1931 ?

 

[gartley]

Have decided to jump in and get my feet wet. This market has completed a nice impulse down. Time and price have come together here. 34% decline ( as in fibonacci number 34). has fallen in 62 ( as in 61.8%) 2hr bars.

 

[Porper]

Your wave count at all degrees is almost the same as mine. I am still in cash though as I am not convinced wave-5 is locked in. It is truncated in both time and price compared to wave-1. Nice Fib confluence though so who knows.

I would like one final blow-off to get rid of all the weak hands.

 

[gartley]

Your wave count at all degrees is almost the same as mine. I am still in cash though as I am not convinced wave-5 is locked in. It is truncated in both time and price compared to wave-1. Nice Fib confluence though so who knows.

I would like one final blow-off to get rid of all the weak hands.

Hello Porper, long time no see, good to here from you!
Yes, likewise I would like to see one last thrust down ( and it may yet still come), but because time and price have come togther here and I have a buy signal on my daily cycles routine attached I have decided to jump in for now. I figure that even if wrong, and impulse still not complete, we will at least get a 10 to 13% rally here if another last leg down decides to come

 

[Porper]

You make a very good point regarding getting involved...even if a bounce only unfolds.

Taking on low risk trades is a great strategy when a potential turning point is hit. Small gains and losses is part and parcel of trading. It also allows you to be on board if a significant low is locked in.

There is nothing worse than watching the market rally hard when you are sitting on the sidelines !!

 

[aus_trader]

Have decided to jump in and get my feet wet. This market has completed a nice impulse down. Time and price have come together here. 34% decline ( as in fibonacci number 34). has fallen in 62 ( as in 61.8%) 2hr bars.

Something is suspicious about the attached graph you posted. Does the indicators re-paint ? Surely they cannot predict the future ? !

 

[Smurf1976]

California, including Los Angeles, has been ordered into full lockdown. Significance in this context is that LA is one of the most well known cities globally.

US stock futures not showing any real response and the ASX is up a bit today. Oil's up too as are some more speculative things like Bitcoin.

Seems that the market has stopped selling off in response to bad news. If that continues then it looks like a short term bottom may be at hand?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

started OK but found it hard to hold the upkick today