How Far Will The Market Fall?

[basilio]

Worth rehighting Omegas find on negative interest home loans
Danish bank launches world’s first negative interest rate mortgage
This article is more than 7 months old
Jyske Bank will effectively pay borrowers 0.5% a year to take out aloan

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage

 

[basilio]

Sit down, put your arms around your knees, lean well forward and kiss something goodby.

Nah. Just get off this crazy thread and do something useful!!

Bye !!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Market is RS at the moment. ASX200 well under 5000
The economics of this situation will only get worse. We will really have to come up with creative solutions that keep our infrastructure mostly intact and not destroy peoples lives.
How ?

buying in last 20 minutes ... up nearly 200 pts. 5050

let's see what 4:10 closes bring

 

[moXJO]

and the share to be under 4500 within 2 months

Two monthsI'm thinking this week

I'll lose interest by two months.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

lost a hundred at close-out

 

[moXJO]

lost a hundred at close-out

View attachment 101444

Interesting day tomorrow if the dow dumps.

 

[tech/a]

Dow will test the low just as we are.
Still think we are close to a consolidation area.

 

[Logique]

Dow will test the low just as we are.
Still think we are close to a consolidation area.

This is what the great technician has to contribute? Don't strain yourself tech/a. People out there losing money

 

[bluekelah]

I think only the businesses with good margins would be able to weather the storm.

I just noticed today Woolies have pushed the prices up on quite a lot of everyday items. Not blaming them because I don't know if their suppliers have done it, and Woolies is just passing them on... Either way it is putting more stress on family budgets and other smaller businesses with thin margins that rely on them.

With the AUD now less than 60c to USD everything is gonna spike in price! Especially imported stuff.

 

[bluekelah]

Dow will test the low just as we are.
Still think we are close to a consolidation area.

Virus hasnt even spiked here yet. Will spike in USA this coming 2 weeks just like Italy has done. Then Dow wil be truly farked. Aus as usual will be late to the party.

 

[tech/a]

Yes!!!

Mind you there are those who are far more qualified than I who think
We are only at the bottom of the ” J “ curve.

if we see Europe and the US with 10s of 1000s of deaths in the next few weeks
They will be right.

Pessimistic?

Maybe I’m Optimistic?

 

[Smurf1976]

if we see Europe and the US with 10s of 1000s of deaths in the next few weeks
They will be right.

Pessimistic?

Maybe I’m Optimistic?

My thinking is more that you’re half right.

A bottom is near, we get a bounce, then we go to new lows.

Just my thoughts, I could well be wrong.

 

[wayneL]

My thinking is more that you’re half right.

A bottom is near, we get a bounce, then we go to new lows.

Just my thoughts, I could well be wrong.

that would be pretty typical market behaviour especially considering what is lilely to come with the next earnings season.

That's what I'm waiting for, or rather, the preceding intel.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

that would be pretty typical market behaviour especially considering what is lilely to come with the next earnings season.

That's what I'm waiting for, or rather, the preceding intel.

each time it goes down, we get more forced selling. So when it goes up, this will stop.

Hold on a minute, went up 11 % on Friday. Mmmm, where are we now, three days later?

IMO still haven't seen panic / capitulation

 

[sptrawler]

So what has really happened, apart from the fact we are already in the doldrums, the mining hasn't been hit yet, oil and gas has.
The retail sector was already on its knees, tourism is shot, education sector is shot, Coles, Woolies and suppliers going gangbusters ATM.
Airlines shot, travel agents shot. Sections of the agricultural sector will be doing well, again may be short lived but people tend to keep eating and not the same thing over and over.
Hopefully the news doesn't get worse, but ATM a lot of fear is factored in IMO.

 

[wayneL]

each time it goes down, we get more forced selling. So when it goes up, this will stop.

Hold on a minute, went up 11 % on Friday. Mmmm, where are we now, three days later?

IMO still haven't seen panic / capitulation

Agree.

But we have also not seen the revaluing of businesses. I think there could be some reality checks there.

 

[explod]

The increasing volatility measures sentiment which atm is fear.

Anything can happen but the signs ATM are all down.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I must admit that I am in the camp where I'm getting ready to buy.

Not quite today or tomorrow, but getting ready.

gg

 

[brookybandicoot]

My thinking is more that you’re half right.

A bottom is near, we get a bounce, then we go to new lows.

Just my thoughts, I could well be wrong.

Dead cat bounce

 

[aus_trader]

My thinking is more that you’re half right.

A bottom is near, we get a bounce, then we go to new lows.

Just my thoughts, I could well be wrong.

What's really hard to believe is that it's been a one way move since the end of February. Where are the rallies or counter-trends ?
I would like to look at the other crashes and bear markets all the way back to the start of the century but not on a static graph but on one where you can scroll along. Is there any resource online to do that? Even if it's a line graph ?
Google graphs and other sites I looked at only goes back about 40years max. Current crash looks so steep, somewhat like the 1987 flash crash. I would like to go all the way back to 1929 crash and earlier. Is there an online resource for historical charts up to modern day ?