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House prices to stagnate for 'years'

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From Nightline
By VICKI MABREY and CHARLES HERMAN
July 27, 2007



In Sacramento, Calif., not far from where prospectors sought quick
riches in the gold rush more than a century ago, another speculative
boom is going bust.

This time, however, it's not the lure of precious metals -- it's real estate.



"The market was hot, and I decided to give it a shot," said Casey
Serin, a modern-day speculator who hoped to strike it rich quick by
buying homes, fixing them up and then flipping them for a profit.

The Lure of Quick Cash

Serin said he has always had an entrepreneurial spirit. Born in
Uzbekistan, the 24-year-old came to the United States with his family
in 1994 and became a U.S. citizen nine years later.

After graduating from high school, he found a full-time job as a Web
site programmer. But Serin was always interested in starting his own
business.

In particular, he was drawn to real estate. So Serin attended real
estate seminars and bought how-to CDs, DVDs and books.

"My first set of seminars was $15,000," he said. He was hooked,
eventually spending nearly $35,000 on what he calls his real estate
education.

"I kept spending because I thought, 'I need more education,'" Serin said.

And after he made a profit buying and selling one property, he
eventually jumped into the real estate boom that was gripping the
nation.

"My first deal was $30,000. I got a bit of euphoria. I thought I could
do this more and more. Exuberant feelings led me to buy more
property."

Buying Spree

Starting in 2005 Serin went on a real estate shopping binge, buying
eight homes in eight months in four different states. Along the way,
he quit his job to devote himself full-time to real estate investing.

In October 2005, he bought one home in Sacramento, then another one in
January 2006. The next month, he purchased two properties in New
Mexico. Next, he closed on a home in Modesto, Calif. In March 2006, he
bought a home, sight unseen, in Utah as well as another in California.

In May of that year, he bought a home in Dallas, the same way he
bought the house in Utah -- sight unseen.

In all, he acquired eight homes over eight months, and a lot of debt.
"In total I was $2.2 million in debt between mortgages and unsecured
lines of credit and credit cards," said Serin.

"It was a very tough thing to face."

Cracks in the Foundation

Serin's problems started when the home repairs often took longer than expected.

"My goal was always to fix up the house and resell it for profit
quickly," he said, "say within three to four months. [The] problem is
three to four months turned into six months, and then my money ran
out, and I couldn't finish fixing it."

Another problem was timing.

Serin started buying just as the real estate market boom was going
bust. His houses sat unsold, and his debt continued to climb.


"I created a logistical nightmare for myself trying to do too many
properties too fast. And what happened was, I ran out of money," he
said.

Creative Financing and 'Liar Loans'

To make matters worse, Serin told ABC News that he purchased his homes
using what are known in the lending industry as "low documentation"
loans. With these mortgages, borrowers provide limited documentation
-- or proof -- to confirm their income and assets, and lenders base
loans on that information with little to no verification.

Serin said that he told lenders on his loan applications that he was
making more than his actual salary of $50,000 a year from his computer
job.

"I ended up stating more than I was really making because I was able
to take advantage of what's called 'stated income loans,'" he said.
"In the industry they call them 'liar loans,' because the bank
basically allows you to state anything you want."

"Low doc" and "no doc" loans were originally intended for the
self-employed, whose income can vary year to year or for the very
wealthy, who don't want to disclose their earnings.

"Low-doc and no-doc [are] very viable … for a certain segment of the
buying public," explained Ed Smith of the California Association of
Mortgage Brokers. "For example, a person with high credit scores, the
ability to make their payments, a long-term history of being
financially prudent with their finances -- however, they don't want to
disclose full documentation of their income."

But as home prices soared, especially in states such as California,
lenders loosened credit requirements and made these loans available to
more people.

These higher-risk loans also came with higher interest rates. It is
many of those borrowers -- like Casey Serin -- who are now having
problems making their mortgage payments.

"The [loan] products that were available were mismatched in many cases
with the wrong customer's financial profile," said Smith. "Many
customers got into loan products that were ill-advised or maybe not
well thought out. There's no such thing as a bad loan; there's loan
products that fit everyone's individual profile."

Zach Gast. who analyzes the mortgage lending industry for the Center
for Financial Research and Analysis, said pressure on lenders to
continue making loans as home prices increased led to a loosening of
lending standards.

"The standards dropped in nearly everything you can imagine," he said.
"Borrowers were not required to provide documentation of their income.
They paid less in down payments. And they were also allowed to have
higher mortgage payments as a percentage of their income."

According to Credit Suisse, an international financial services group,
"low/no doc" loans accounted for nearly half of all home purchase
loans issued in 2006 in the United States, up from only 18 percent in
2001.


The Walls Come Down

Serin admitted he lied about his income on his applications.

"It was fairly common to do stated income loans. I thought, well this
must be gray area. It's kind of like speeding on the freeway.
Everybody does it. As long as you do it within reason, it's all right.
Well, I crashed my car."

And as his homes sat unsold and he couldn't make the payments, he
continued to dig himself deeper and deeper into debt.

Part of that debt was a result of how he structured his mortgage
deals, where he not only got a home a closing, he got cash back. Serin
said he used the money to fix up the properties as well as to live on,
something that could possibly land him in trouble with law
enforcement.

"I was able to structure the deals in such a way to where I will
borrow 100 percent of the value and find a way to have the seller give
me of the money back for my repairs."

He didn't think it was illegal because, as he put it, "I just thought
as long as it was a win-win deal, it was all good."

According to his attorney, Serin is currently under investigation by
the FBI. His attorney, Kevin Mark Wray, told ABC News that "as of yet,
no charges have been brought against Mr. Serin. However, based upon
conversations with the U.S. attorney's office in California, federal
charges related to Mr. Serin's real estate transactions are expected
to be brought against him. At this time, my office is reviewing Mr.
Serin's real estate transactions. I have engaged an expert on mortgage
law and mortgage foreclosure. I expect to have a complete response in
the next two weeks."

Even before the investigation began, debt collectors were harassing
Serin, and his mailbox was filling up with delinquent notices.
Eventually, his lenders started foreclosure procedures. According to
Serin's Web site, five of his eight homes have been foreclosed on, two
of his homes have been sold and one is under contract to be sold.

Going Public

Despite what he has done, Serin has been remarkably candid about his
actions. He started a Web site where he posted everything from
pictures of his homes to a detailed list of his personal finances. His
blog, which started out as a place for him to share his experiences
with others, later became a possible business opportunity. "The
entrepreneur in me thought, 'Hey, this is great. I can maybe leverage
this into some other business later on.'"

"There was a time where I was embarrassed," he said, "but after a
while I decided, you know what? What's there to be ashamed about?
Successful people go through several of these, you know. Failure is
part of success."

Serin once envisioned the Web site and blog becoming a place where
people facing foreclosure could learn about what to expect, as well as
what options might be available to them. However, the attention from
the media, Web watchers and legal authorities has become too difficult
for him. He recently sold the domain and will soon stop blogging about
his activities. For those who loved (and hated) his adventures in real
estate, as of after Friday, August 3, Serin's story, as told online,
is expected to end.


In the Hot Seat

"I have a lot of critics that say because of me, the market is
overpriced," he said. "Because of me, the renters are priced out. It's
interesting. I've been put in a position where I'm blamed for
macroeconomic problems. I'm kind of like a mascot for what's really
going on."
 
The rest of the story. Commentators on Serin's and their own blogs also express anger at
Serin's lifestyle.

"I make things worse by telling them part of the money last year was
used for my wife, and I to go on vacation. Well, people don't realize
this is one thing we did. Everything else was very frugal," he said.

"We have scaled back in a lot of ways, and we have cut our expenses
down. But what happens is people focus on the drama. They see that I'm
supposedly living a frivolous lifestyle, they see that I went to a
Starbucks or a Jamba Juice … and they say, 'You need to be on rice and
beans all the time. You need to be eating Top Ramen all day.'"

Undeterred Despite Debt

Serin maintains that his critics don't realize the severity of his situation.

"You can't just send $5 toward your credit card; they will still
continue their collection process," he said. "With foreclosures you
can't just pay them a partial payment. They will still do the
foreclosure."

While Serin wants to work out deals for his remaining debt, he said he
is trying his best to avoid declaring bankruptcy.

"People say maybe you should give up after eight bad deals," he said.
"Well, I'd like to say they weren't all bad, and I have learned a lot
through it. So I'd like to think the next deal I am going to do is
going to be successful."

So, Serin continues to search for his eureka moment and hopes to strike gold.
 
hello,

not everybody's wage has stayed the same, plenty of people have had good increases and save and use this money appropriately,

the Banks, as in big four, are as tough as ever for getting money, it is more the XYZ Finance Company which is more likely to give the low/or no doc

not everybody upgrades their home, some people stay in home for 20-40 yrs and in those circumstances inflation means jack

there is no affordability crisis, plenty everywhere for people to buy easily

keep doing the numbers,

thankyou

robots
 
Well I profoundly agree to disagree! :D

Thanks for the thoughtful post. Apologies in advance for another long post.

I'm glad we can do that here on ASF :) Its what makes it a great forum.

I would agree on one thing...almost every goverment in the developed world has figured out how to play the same game ie. the game of using house price appreciation guided by interest rates to run a stable economy with sustainable growth. What many bears and analysts are betting on is that this is some kind of Nash equilibrium where it will only take one significant player of the game being forced to change their strategy before the whole lot unravels. Greenspan famously referred to "irrational exuberance" back in 1995. In otherwords, the game has been going on for over a decade and perhaps the arrival of new players ie. China, India, rebuilt-Germany, Russia, has helped prevent the folly of this game from being revealed in the form of a proper bust. Crystal ball anybody??

Prices can be bid up through transactions of a relatively small % of houses (even if they are bid up on fundamentals) which requires little money, but over time they have to be supported by the weight of the whole market - this requires a lot of money, which is currently being funded mostly by debt (not savings or income)

People taking on debt can be considered a vote of confidence by people on the system and the future. Back when we had defined contribution pension systems there was actually a situation where pension funds would give money back to contributors because they had too much! People were retiring at 65, expecting to live until 72, and dying at 67. The fund had a surplus of cash. Now many of us are expected to live beyond 80! Think about how that could translate to confidence on behalf of the people who take on more debt using 40 or 50 years loans instead of 25 or 30 years. And so house prices go up. Now I ask you this...are those who sit on the sidelines waiting for a bust actually risking missing out all together in what might not be a part of any boom/bust cycle but is instead a shift in the way the system is structured, which will lead to higher house prices forever after...once again, crystal ball anyone?

Well I'm a child of a baby boomer but I was in my early to late teens at that time - and wasn't buying??

From my experience those who were best positioned to take advantage of what started in '96/'97 were those who were 1. old enough to work and 2. had worked long enough to have a stable work and savings history. As you said yourself, banks were overly conservative. The youngest person I knew who bought a house in '97 was 19. Those best positioned, IMO, were 25+. If you weren't at least 20 in '97 then by my measure you were just on the cusp of Gen X/Gen Y. Now, ten years later it is Gen Y who are forced to take on stupid amounts of debt for longer periods of time. It is the Gen Y kids I know who think that while you're there taking a $400k no-deposit loan on a new apartment you might as well tack on another $60k and buy an Audi too...if the bank will let you have it...the people who approve the appliation are gatekeepers, not their own sensibility.

I don't subscribe to the seemingly well accepted belief that older 30-60 something Aussies are/were financially reckless. Why don't we hear more stories on threads like this about the people who paid off their houses before they were 35 during the tech-boom and only then did they buy a second investment property. I think many older Aussies have less debt and more equity than we give them credit for (no pun intended). Gen Y, different story.

ASX.G
 
I don't subscribe to the seemingly well accepted belief that older 30-60 something Aussies are/were financially reckless. Why don't we here stories on threads like this about the people who paid off their houses before they were 35 during the tech-boom and only then did they buy a second investment property. I think many older Aussies have less debt and more equity than we give them credit for. Gen Y, different story.

ASX.G

Good post, ASX.G

I agree with this bit whole heartedly. It's the younger generation that have no problem taking on huge levels of debt, even people around my age (30-35) seem to have no second thoughts about hocking themselves up to the eyeballs in debt, if the bank will give it to them they'll take it.One of the major problems I see is that it's not just on houses but also on depreciating assets like cars and electrical goods (plasma tvs etc).

Some of the guys at work constantly use their home loans as revolving credit, one of them owes more on his house now then 3 years ago and in that time we've paid him about $40k in bonuses and now he's got a $40k car loan as well!
 
Thanks for the thoughtful post. Apologies in advance for another long post.

I'm glad we can do that here on ASF :) Its what makes it a great forum.

I would agree on one thing...almost every goverment in the developed world has figured out how to play the same game ie. the game of using house price appreciation guided by interest rates to run a stable economy with sustainable growth. What many bears and analysts are betting on is that this is some kind of Nash equilibrium where it will only take one significant player of the game being forced to change their strategy before the whole lot unravels. Greenspan famously referred to "irrational exuberance" back in 1995. In otherwords, the game has been going on for over a decade and perhaps the arrival of new players ie. China, India, rebuilt-Germany, Russia, has helped prevent the folly of this game from being revealed in the form of a proper bust. Crystal ball anybody??

I'm actually not much of a conspiracy theorist, I don't believe that governements (or central banks) intentially architecture imbalances... but I do believe that once imbalances exist, they will do anything in their power to keep them going as long as possible if it's in their interest.... and momentum is very hard to stop.... hence imbalances will tend go on much longer than any predict.

But IMO the game has a use by date - especially in democracies. A lot of people think the govt polls against howard are a sign that people want a change because they don't know any better, or want change for the sake of it.... I know amongst my peers (affluent late Gen Y) there is a growing resentment for his policies and seeming lack of any leadership on things that affect them (whether justified or not), and this group is growing.

This game could go on for a very long time yet.... even if fundamentals don't support it. Japan had an extremely productive economy with all the fundamentals and still couldn't avoid the lure of transacting the same unrpoductive assets for ever greater amounts of money.... So they got 10+ years of deflation... in a country with less land and a larger population

But I don't think we're close to Japan territory...

Think about how that could translate to confidence on behalf of the people who take on more debt using 40 or 50 years loans instead of 25 or 30 years. And so house prices go up. Now I ask you this...are those who sit on the sidelines waiting for a bust actually risking missing out all together in what might not be a part of any boom/bust cycle but is instead a shift in the way the system is structured, which will lead to higher house prices forever after...once again, crystal ball anyone?

Forget 40-50 year loans, the trend is I/O with intention to repay principle 'some time in the future'!!! :D

Once you max out on I/O we can go to negative amortisation reset, and home equity loans... so there is plenty more room :p: Both of these rely on the debt market to expand credit and ease lending policies more... which may happen.

I would advise anyone who's sitting waiting for a bust, to buy within your means if you're at that stage... as their aint no guarantee that there will be a bust soon. But I'd also advise that anyone speculating on rises IMO is playing with fundamental fire. I think prices are overpriced but I will probably buy a PPOR within the next few months - because i'm at that stage of my life.

From my experience those who were best positioned to take advantage of what started in '96/'97 were those who were 1. old enough to work and 2. had worked long enough to have a stable work and savings history. As you said yourself, banks were overly conservative. The youngest person I knew who bought a house in '97 was 19. Those best positioned, IMO, were 25+. If you weren't at least 20 in '97 then by my measure you were just on the cusp of Gen X/Gen Y. Now, ten years later it is Gen Y who are forced to take on stupid amounts of debt for longer periods of time. It is the Gen Y kids I know who think that while you're there taking a $400k no-deposit loan on a new apartment you might as well tack on another $60k and buy an Audi too...if the bank will let you have it...the people who approve the appliation are gatekeepers, not their own sensibility.

People will always talk from their own frame of reference, and mine is of Gen Y - the lazy want it all now generation :cool:. But i do find it amusing that people often deride the willingness of a generation to take on debt at 100% finance beyond their means - because if on mass they actually didn't (saved 20% deposit and borrowed within means) house prices (at the low to middle end at least) would drop....

people who know better preach individual responsiblity and ownership knowing full well that on average the masses will not behave rationally or responsibly.

I don't subscribe to the seemingly well accepted belief that older 30-60 something Aussies are/were financially reckless. Why don't we hear more stories on threads like this about the people who paid off their houses before they were 35 during the tech-boom and only then did they buy a second investment property. I think many older Aussies have less debt and more equity than we give them credit for (no pun intended). Gen Y, different story.

ASX.G

Agree completely!!! Anyone who gets into any sort of bother while being on the other side of the asset appreciation truly does deserve it. I would say that the 40-60 range (and asset owners) are in the perfect position (provided they aren't over leveraged). They have the luxury of seeing if the overleveraged (20-30's) actually do turn out to be overleveraged and pick up any bargains in a credit contraction.

Make no mistake, the overleverage are the 'bull bar' on the 4wd so to speak. We may or may not have a crash, but if we do they will bear the brunt... but they have time on their side.

TJ
 
Make no mistake, the overleverage are the 'bull bar' on the 4wd so to speak. We may or may not have a crash, but if we do they will bear the brunt... but they have time on their side.

Great analogy...! Can I borrow it??? :)
 
A very interesting video here from Jim Cramer on real estate.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2885272539300360327&hl=en

He is still a muppet. You can tell by one particular comment on interest rates, but he knows doom when he sees it.

I watched that video for a nugget of wisdom...sad to say I just lost 5 minutes of my life...yet another talking-head juiced up the "you're all f%&ked but I already sold and have a lot of money so this should be fun to watch" ideal.

Of course the fed will pull rates down a whole percent to deal with this issue...clearly the ball is in their court...I don't see that they have a choice :)

Congrats on the 5000th post WayneL!
 
I watched that video for a nugget of wisdom...sad to say I just lost 5 minutes of my life...yet another talking-head juiced up the "you're all f%&ked but I already sold and have a lot of money so this should be fun to watch" ideal.

Of course the fed will pull rates down a whole percent to deal with this issue...clearly the ball is in their court...I don't see that they have a choice :)

Congrats on the 5000th post WayneL!
Jim Cramer is a personality and is always like that. His show 'Mad Money' on CNBC is a rock show with bells, whistles, hooters and bulls and bears all over the place. He does have a brain though, and he's written a few books, so he must be very smart. :rolleyes: :)
 
I watched that video for a nugget of wisdom...sad to say I just lost 5 minutes of my life...yet another talking-head juiced up the "you're all f%&ked but I already sold and have a lot of money so this should be fun to watch" ideal.

Of course the fed will pull rates down a whole percent to deal with this issue...clearly the ball is in their court...I don't see that they have a choice :)

Congrats on the 5000th post WayneL!
How this man has the position of influence he has, I just don't know.

Nice video for a bear though. :D
 
What t-shirt should i wear today "I shorted your House" or the " I shorted your lender" one ?


:)
 
What t-shirt should i wear today "I shorted your House" or the " I shorted your lender" one ?

:)


Today I'd go with the lender's T-Shirt :eek:

But I think there are some wider issues developing here and while my initial reaction to the sub prime mess were that of 'it's just another short term correction in a longer term debt bubble' I think I'll sit on the fence for now......

there seems to be a lot more things starting to unravel as we have now finished the financial year and auditors start running through the books - this process may take a few months.

turns out Mac Banks fortress fund was made of sticks;

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22168528-643,00.html

For things to continue swimmingly for all, the debt market will need to stabalize, after all that's what's been propping a lot of stuff up - maybe China can come to the rescue and prop up the private debt markets, it doesn't seem to mind propping up the US govt through treasuries?..... that last question was actually serious :D

TJ
 
there seems to be a lot more things starting to unravel as we have now finished the financial year and auditors start running through the books - this process may take a few months.

OK... I think I'll extend that timeline out to the end of the year....

The peak month for the resetting of mortgages will come this October, according to Credit Suisse, when more than $50 billion in mortgages will switch to a new rate for the first time. The level will remain above $30 billion a month through September 2008. In all, the interest rates on about $1 trillion worth of mortgages, or 12 percent of the nation’s total, will reset for the first time this year or next. A couple of years ago, by comparison, only a marginal amount of mortgage debt ”” a few billion dollars ”” was resetting each month

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/b...ccf8d6e7d8e446&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Wouldn't you love to meet the guy that invented negative amortisation mortgages!!

Step 1. Asset price is high(er)
Step 2. Hard to manage cash flow through standard loan
Step 3. How about we lower initial rate and capitalise interest into the loan, becasue we know asset prices will rise faster than capitalised interest!!
Step 4. Buy asset now that cash flow problems are sorted!!
Step 5. Go to step 1

Endgame Interest resets to 'normal rate' and cash flow problems still exist :eek:

US markets will be fascinating tonight..... I think we'll get a rebound :cautious:

TJ
 
hello,

here we go, awesome weekend ahead most likely

another 3% off the ASX, 10% rise for Melb real estate holders in 3mths, get another 10% in the next quarter I would suggest

people renting have had it good for too long, things are changing as property investors pass on the costs now, good stuff

thankyou

robots

ps. how's the house hunting going smurf
 
Hello,


Here we go, US housing industry imploding spurring on a Credit crunch that will extend itself to that hot Aussie realestate market that is returning the princely sum of 3pc p/a in rental return.

Housing at its most unaffordable level in Australias history requiring an Income of 100k to be just affordable in every major city.

Keep pumping that "sure thing" realestate mantra itll make the end game all the more interesting ... and profitable (>:


:cool:

PS. I sure hope Melbourne realestate jumps 10pc for you this weekend let alone just the next quarter!
 
Hello,


Here we go, US housing industry imploding spurring on a Credit crunch that will extend itself to that hot Aussie realestate market that is returning the princely sum of 3pc p/a in rental return.

Housing at its most unaffordable level in Australias history requiring an Income of 100k to be just affordable in every major city.

Keep pumping that "sure thing" realestate mantra itll make the end game all the more interesting ... and profitable (>:


:cool:

PS. I sure hope Melbourne realestate jumps 10pc for you this weekend let alone just the next quarter!

Now I'll bet in the years 1996-2002 you were one of the many who watched the property market treble and did F/A.---actually sweet F/A.
 
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