House prices to stagnate for 'years'

noirua · 11 April 2007

A bust could come in the UK. Property prices in England rose 9.5% in the last 12 months (Prices rose 14.1% in London); in Scotland 15%; and in Northern Ireland an amazing 57.6% ( up 14.6% in the last three months ), prices in Belfast rose 61% in the last 12 months. The latter was due to peace in Northern Ireland and house prices coming more into line with the European Tiger Economy, Eire ( Southern Ireland ).

Every year for three years a bust has been forecast and house prices continued on up in double digits. Forecast for the next 12 months in England is up 8% to 10%, with an increase in London of 14%.

Foreigners are reported to be still flooding in, to England. Estimates of over 1 million illegal immigrants, many working for peanuts. The present Government welcomes anyone with loads of cash and they buy up properties and even Football Clubs. A blind eye is turned to foreigners who pay little tax in their nominated tax havens.

My own view is that a bust will truly come but maybe not until prices rise another 30% or so in the next two years.

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,2049736,00.html

robots · 11 April 2007

noirua said:
Every year for three years a bust has been forecast and house prices continued on up in double digits. Forecast for the next 12 months in England is up 8% to 10%, with an increase in London of 14%.

hello,

thats right, but many people have been ignorant of this with all the usual graphs and affordability issues

affordability issue's are non-existent and is the usual blurb from ACA, TT, the age, smh and all the others to sell media

who knows what is around the corner, isnt past performance no indicator for future performance ,yet a crash is going to happen because a crash has happen before in some people's opinion

goodluck

thankyou

martin stocker

Kimosabi · 11 April 2007

robots said:
hello,

thats right, but many people have been ignorant of this with all the usual graphs and affordability issues

affordability issue's are non-existent and is the usual blurb from ACA, TT, the age, smh and all the others to sell media

who knows what is around the corner, isnt past performance no indicator for future performance ,yet a crash is going to happen because a crash has happen before in some people's opinion

goodluck

thankyou

martin stocker

I hope you're prepared for +10% Interest Rates...

wayneL · 12 April 2007

Housing Bubble Accomplices Preparing for Death: Caroline Baum

...and an allegorical little video

Hat tip to immobilienblasen

Freeballinginawetsuit · 12 April 2007

Had a squizz at a property on Bearing pde in Mullaloo...... ocean glimpses and an elevated view of surrounding treetops. 6 months ago this property would have fetched 650k................now its on the market for 515k.

Fair to say that the dynamics are already tightening in the Perth property market.

The aforementioned property seemed a bargain IMO. It sold on the same day I inspected it...............

Wether your leverage/liquidity is in a substantially increased commodity stock or a tightening property market, both are inflated ATM in relative terms!

Kimosabi · 13 April 2007

Rates lift number of bankrupts

By Jenny Dillon
April 13, 2007 06:00am

IMPROPER and aggressive lending practices compounded by rising interest rates have led to a huge increase in the number of people in NSW filing for bankruptcy.

Total insolvencies soared by more than 20 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 2859 cases, according to the Insolvency and Trustee Service Australia.
There were 2404 new bankruptcies in NSW in the March quarter, a rise of 21.54 per cent, 446 debt agreements (up 31.56 per cent) and nine personal insolvencies (up 28.57 per cent).
"This is an alarming reflection of the NSW property crash that people don't want to acknowledge," said insolvency partner and trustee at Hall Chadwick, Geoff McDonald.
"This is a real reflection of what has happened to people who dabbled in the investment property market and who have been horribly burned when the market turned," he said.
"Many of these people have fallen victim to peer group pressure, have decided to go for an investment property and try to make a quick buck."

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21548821-462,00.html

hhhmmmm, where have I seen this sort of thing before...

YChromozome · 13 April 2007

Kimosabi said:
hhhmmmm, where have I seen this sort of thing before...

Don't worry, it won't happen here.

Likewise house prices can't fall . .

Bankruptcies climb on property fall out

In the three years to last December house prices fell an average of 8.8 per cent in Sydney, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

In real terms, relative to inflation, prices have fallen almost 16 per cent in Sydney over the past three years as values slumped mainly in the western suburbs.

Smurf1976 · 13 April 2007

Shock! Horror! House prices have actually fallen.

Good news for home buyers except those trading down.

Nothing to worry about for long term investors. Actually good news for professional landlords looking to accumulate property over time and create a passive income.

The inevitable massive loss for those who speculated on a quick profit buying houses they'd never seen in places they'd never been to with money that isn't theirs.

Joke of the 90's - The internet new paradigm where valuations and actually running a business that makes a profit no longer matters.

Joke of the early 2000's - House prices always go up. Valuation or actually making an income from renting the place out doesn't matter anymore. Banks will just keep lending ever increasing amounts of money to people who can't even pay the interest and that will see house prices keep rising at least 5 times faster than wages forever.

Next one - Water restrictions are temporary and don't really matter, we'll never get to the point of banning showers or limiting clothes washing. High petrol prices are just a blip. And we've got plenty of power.

robots · 14 April 2007

hello,

looking forward to the auction results across AUS tomorrow

things are travelling find, wow did anybody pick the rental crisis that is going on, "they" say rental vacancy down to <1% amazing stuff, which economist picked that?

thankyou

robots

CanOz · 14 April 2007

You know its interesting, when i left Victoria and split with my wife, we put our house up for sale. It was purchsed by a couple from Melbourne as weekender (its a lifestyle home on acreage). Now i just found out that the house is for sale, and i can't help but wonder if the higher interest rates got them in the end and forced them to sell. They're asking 40% more than they paid me for it nearly 4 years ago!

I just can't see how thats justified? Wheres the reasoning behind that increase?

Cheers,

YChromozome · 14 April 2007

CanOz said:
Wheres the reasoning behind that increase?

The reasoning is greed. Fundamentals left the market in mid 2003, maybe even earlier.

robots said:
did anybody pick the rental crisis that is going on, "they" say rental vacancy down to <1% amazing stuff, which economist picked that?

I'm no economist, but I thought it was inevitable. This is one of Alan Kolher's graphs on investment growth for existing dwellings he showed last year :

It should speak for itself. Mostly set off by rate hikes and poor investment yield.

At the start of this year we have seen a bit of propaganda come out from the industry lobby group, the HIA saying rents yields are too low and that they forecast rents to rise by 20% this year. Well really, the reason why rent yields are so low is because the asset price has increased so much. So now investors are flocking to the market and we see investor credit growth up 8.9 per cent for the month of February!. But what is ironic, most investors have put rents up an entire 20.0% in one hit and with rents having a 5.22% weighting in the CPI, it should put some pressure on inflation. It could take two rate rises to correct it. I wonder what triggered the mass exodus in the first place?

robots · 15 April 2007

hello,

another solid performance on prices this weekend, those who say is flat or dropped are absolutely dreaming

very much a tale of the inner city and outer city at the moment, and for those who follow the wakelins report or advice would be laughing all the way to the bank

went to 4 auctions all inner city, multiple bidders, and went to 4 open for inspection inner city, cannot believe the number of people interested

thankyou

robots

wayneL · 15 April 2007

robots said:
hello,

another solid performance on prices this weekend, those who say is flat or dropped are absolutely dreaming

very much a tale of the inner city and outer city at the moment, and for those who follow the wakelins report or advice would be laughing all the way to the bank

went to 4 auctions all inner city, multiple bidders, and went to 4 open for inspection inner city, cannot believe the number of people interested

thankyou

robots

The big end of town is still doing rather well and lending standards incredibly lax. Won't see problems in this sector till later.

robots · 15 April 2007

hello,

a 350k 2-bedroom unit sold at auction, big end of town? yeah right

a 417k 2-bedroom tri-level townhouse(sold at auction), big end of town? yeah right

a 240k 1-bedroom unit(sold at auction) big end of town? yeah right

a 380k 3-bedroom unit (sold at auction, today) big end of town? yeah right

all where units, no houses, all where in St kilda (Victoria) and nearby

the affordability crisis that supposedely is around is utter rubbish, this is run of the mill accomodation

these are prices not seen before, get out and look for yourself, peolpe are really fools if they beleive whats been written about property over the past couple of years

over and out

thankyou

robots

Kimosabi · 15 April 2007

robots said:
hello,

a 350k 2-bedroom unit sold at auction, big end of town? yeah right

a 417k 2-bedroom tri-level townhouse(sold at auction), big end of town? yeah right

a 240k 1-bedroom unit(sold at auction) big end of town? yeah right

a 380k 3-bedroom unit (sold at auction, today) big end of town? yeah right

all where units, no houses, all where in St kilda (Victoria) and nearby

the affordability crisis that supposedely is around is utter rubbish, this is run of the mill accomodation

these are prices not seen before, get out and look for yourself, peolpe are really fools if they beleive whats been written about property over the past couple of years

over and out

thankyou

robots

So did you buy anything?

wayneL · 15 April 2007

robots said:
hello,

a 350k 2-bedroom unit sold at auction, big end of town? yeah right

a 417k 2-bedroom tri-level townhouse(sold at auction), big end of town? yeah right

a 240k 1-bedroom unit(sold at auction) big end of town? yeah right

a 380k 3-bedroom unit (sold at auction, today) big end of town? yeah right

all where units, no houses, all where in St kilda (Victoria) and nearby

the affordability crisis that supposedely is around is utter rubbish, this is run of the mill accomodation

these are prices not seen before, get out and look for yourself, peolpe are really fools if they beleive whats been written about property over the past couple of years

over and out

thankyou

robots

wayneL said:
The big end of town is still doing rather well and lending standards incredibly lax. Won't see problems in this sector till later.

What would be the rental yields on the properties mentioned? i.e. On what basis do you think these are fairly valued?

Cheers

PS you're getting shrill again. BTW how many did you buy? If HPs are going to defy fundamentals ad infinitum, why don't you go out and buy 100?

I would, if I thought that.

robots · 15 April 2007

wayneL said:
What would be the rental yields on the properties mentioned? i.e. On what basis do you think these are fairly valued?

Cheers

PS you're getting shrill again. BTW how many did you buy? If HPs are going to defy fundamentals ad infinitum, why don't you go out and buy 100?

I would, if I thought that.

read my posts,

tell me wayne, when have I written property prices are going to go up???

I am calling the state of the market, as said, I dont know which way things will go, they are solid now

i purchased unit in Aug 06 to live in and now rent out other unit

I know what the yields would be for those units but will not mention because I know where that will lead, value is a subjective issue

i do my own research

dont read my posts if you don't like the truth

thankyou

robots

professor_frink · 15 April 2007

robots said:
read my posts,

tell me wayne, when have I written property prices are going to go up???

I am calling the state of the market, as said, I dont know which way things will go, they are solid now

i purchased unit in Aug 06 to live in and now rent out other unit

I know what the yields would be for those units but will not mention because I know where that will lead, value is a subjective issue

i do my own research

dont read my posts if you don't like the truth

thankyou

robots

wayneL · 15 April 2007

professor_frink said:

LOL 'nuff said.

Royce · 15 April 2007

I went to an auction on sat in Elwood..Inner Bayside suburb of Melbourne.

3 bedroom edwardian on about 400 square metres ...needing a bit of TLC.
House was on the market at 1.325 million..Eventually sold for 1.618 Million.
5 bidders fighting it out.

Absolutely no houses for sale around here...properties going for record prices.
Stagnation ?...only the water in the Elwood canal.

Royce

House prices to stagnate for 'years'

noirua

robots

hello

Kimosabi

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Freeballinginawetsuit

Kimosabi

YChromozome

Smurf1976

robots

hello

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

YChromozome

robots

hello

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

robots

hello

Kimosabi

wayneL

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robots

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