House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

But whats your definition of Quality Realestate ?


Good Luck

Real Estate that has some quality that those who are liquid will be willing to purchase, aside from speculation,investment etc etc.

They simply want to live in it for the aforementioned reasons........nothing more. You will tend to find that no matter how complicated economic issues may become it is irrelevant to those types and moreso those levarage squeezed is grossly negated in these areas by simple supply/demand dynamics.

Lots of comfortable people that don't really give a crapper what happens to property prices in these areas, its thier home and they own it..........simple dynamics, plenty of Grey Power as well .

 

[astroboydivx]

This whole stack of cards is wavering on the Economies of the US and China, IMHO.

Good Luck

Uhh Brasil, Russia, India and China, which represent ooh about 2.5 - 2.75 billion people, are undergoing a massive and rapid economic transformation. Saying the global economy is a stack of cards wavering on America and China alone is pretty weak.

http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf

 

[astroboydivx]

That wasn't the bust.

If you can't see it now (one must have a global perspective) you will see it in retrospect. There will be attempts by central banks to avert it, which may draw it out and may even cause some more price rises in certain areas (and make it ultimately worse) but it's on.

Keep some powder dry folks.

Onya Wayne, keep waiting for that crash...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1162

 

[wayneL]

Onya Wayne, keep waiting for that crash...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1162

Are you awake?

Parts of US in freefall, Sydney/Melbourne flat, Ireland going over the edge, Sub etc-prime problems. Only held up by loose credit and increasing money supply.

With historically normal credit parameters we would have had a relatively mild correction and quite possibly be in a situation of good buying value.

But you keep hoping it continues forever.

Cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

would be like a dunk in a cold river today for some, wake-up call

conspiracy again the cries will come load no doubt, RBA looking after the government

goodluck

thankyou

robots

 

[ghotib]

Not sure how this fits in the thread, but what the heck:

Sydney's real-estate agents aren't renowned for being dead straight in their descriptions, but faced with selling a complete dump, one of them has decided that honesty is the only policy.

In a regular property blurb, 25 Waterloo Street, Rozelle, might be described as "quaint", or a "renovator's delight" - realestatespeak for a screaming disaster-zone......

The article includes a picture.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...s-a-500000-dump/2007/04/04/1175366297707.html

For those outside Sydney, the property is within 5Km from the CBD and close to good transport.

Ghoti

 

[wayneL]

hello,

would be like a dunk in a cold river today for some, wake-up call

conspiracy again the cries will come load no doubt, RBA looking after the government

goodluck

thankyou

robots

robots

You are getting a bit shrill.

Chill dude!

 

[wayneL]

Not sure how this fits in the thread, but what the heck:



The article includes a picture.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...s-a-500000-dump/2007/04/04/1175366297707.html

For those outside Sydney, the property is within 5Km from the CBD and close to good transport.

Ghoti

There's this agent close to where I'll be living in the UK, famous for his honesty. http://www.ralphbending.com/display.php

Check this description on his website:

Offers over £190,000 for this extra-ordinary three bed semi detached house. Once bold and secure it clings to its traditional past like **** to a hairy blanket. Now it hangs there forlorn - a mere shell of its former self as it dirties its pants and leaves the washing up until later. Two cramped and dirty flats have been created from this once proud beast. Not pretty - but could be and if it was worth more.

..and

If I had one I'd want it to be just like this. Gorgeous three bedroom Victorian terrace house with lots of space and character situated in the best spot in town. Lovely house - pity about the owner.

LOL

 

[wayneL]

Here's another from the rent list:

Nice terrace house in a cul-de-sac off the centre of the town with hall, sitting room, kitchen, two bedrooms, bathroom, garden and parking. Available now. Suit someone with sense of humour bypass and dicky bladder.

 

[Kimosabi]

Onya Wayne, keep waiting for that crash...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1162

I don't know about WayneL, I love it when I get mocked for taking a it's going to go pop position.

You always get mocked by the 'it never goes down', the 'it's different this time', or the 'It'll just plateau out' crowd, so while all the mockers will be going what just hit me I just got wiped out, we'll be picking up all the assets at undervalued prices.

 

[astroboydivx]

Kimosabi,

I take it your post is code for "I just missed WA's property boom "??

You may have missed it but Wayne's comments were from 2 years ago. What's WA done in the meantime?

 

[wayneL]

Kimosabi,

I take it your post is code for "I just missed WA's property boom "??

You may have missed it but Wayne's comments were from 2 years ago. What's WA done in the meantime?

Become the most overvalued market (vs earnings) in the OECD.

Some may think that a good thing.....

 

[astroboydivx]

FWIW Shane Oliver has some pretty damning statistics on Australia's property markets:

http://ampcapital.com.au/K2DOCS/site_corporate/3A11DF47-B030-4380-8106-9982E3A72A65/OINo10.pdf

This hasn't stopped me making $50 000 in property over the last 4 months in inner west Sydney, and nor could have it stopped you guys making 100% returns over in WA over the last coupla years.

 

[Kimosabi]

Kimosabi,

I take it your post is code for "I just missed WA's property boom "??

You may have missed it but Wayne's comments were from 2 years ago. What's WA done in the meantime?

I had a look at property a couple of years ago and it was over-priced, at the moment it's even more over-priced. I'm not going to go after the market, I'll let the market come to me.

One of the benefits of missing out on the boom, is that you also get to miss out on the bust.

 

[wayneL]

US Home prices, adjusted for inflation (via Shiller's Irrational Exuberance), plotted as a roller coaster (using Atari's RollerCoaster Tycoon).

Hat tip Brett Steenbarger via Barry Ritholtz

 

[Knobby22]

FWIW Shane Oliver has some pretty damning statistics on Australia's property markets:

http://ampcapital.com.au/K2DOCS/site_corporate/3A11DF47-B030-4380-8106-9982E3A72A65/OINo10.pdf

This hasn't stopped me making $50 000 in property over the last 4 months in inner west Sydney, and nor could have it stopped you guys making 100% returns over in WA over the last coupla years.

Very interesting Astroboy, the correlation with urbanisation suggests that property is not as overvalued as we think and may be overvalued by perhaps by 20-30% only.

Wayne, good rollercoaster! Looks a bit scary but it is not a real rollercoaster, it won't go back down to ground level unless we have a nuclear war or we get hit by a meteor. A similar ride would be obtained by plotting the Dow Jones.

 

[robots]

I had a look at property a couple of years ago and it was over-priced, at the moment it's even more over-priced. I'm not going to go after the market, I'll let the market come to me.

havent you all been claiming that it has stagnated, flat or even down?

so what is the true position of property in AUS? I think it is solid as

just remember I am not making a forecast here, i wouldnt have a clue what is going to happen in the future and i dont think you do either

thankyou

robots

 

[Kimosabi]

havent you all been claiming that it has stagnated, flat or even down?

so what is the true position of property in AUS? I think it is solid as

just remember I am not making a forecast here, i wouldnt have a clue what is going to happen in the future and i dont think you do either

thankyou

robots

What we have been claiming, is that most Property in Australia is overvalued, and Property Prices are going to go DOWN to a more realistic level.

 

[adobee]

the lack of rentals in the (Sydney) market at current is almost identical to about 2000. If you refer to news paper articles in the property section in 2000 you will actually see the same headlines ' rents set to increase 70%' blah blah blah, the media runs the same crap and fuels it on. Anyway there is definetly a lack of available investment property in Sydney. The second overvalued is largley due to o.s investors who can only buy brand new and get suckered into buying one bedroom apartment from meriton and the like for $500k which are worth about $390k as they cant buy anything else. Further pressures on rents will have to see the prices kick off eventually when yields reach a level appealing to investors. I would give it 18-24 months, that being said it is just my view. The best possible scenario I think at the moment is for government to change the fhog rules so that fh owners can buy without having to occupy immediately. Currently it requires people to buy and take occupancy. Why not give the grant when people buy and let them take occupancy when they like, it would make housing more affordable for fhbuyers as they can actually get into the market now with the leverage of the rental income (especially young people living at home say 17-26) and occupy later (they only get the fhog & no stamp duty once) so it makes no difference to the government, and at the same time opens up alot for investment property for renters and a reasonable hedge against inflation and increasing property prices for fh buyers. Anyway 24 months and property will be hot, I am buying now at good prices, however steer clear of brand new property which tends to be over inflated, also steering clear of any big developements 1000+ units which are sure to be the slums of tomorrow.

 

[wayneL]

Article in todays Sunday express (UK)