House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[Bronte]

I went to an auction on sat in Elwood..Inner Bayside suburb of Melbourne.
3 bedroom edwardian on about 400 square metres ...needing a bit of TLC.
House was on the market at 1.325 million..Eventually sold for 1.618 Million.
5 bidders fighting it out.
Absolutely no houses for sale around here...properties going for record prices.
Stagnation ?...only the water in the Elwood canal.
Royce

We have to laugh at your comment Royce

Thread title: House prices to stagnate for 'years'
Started 19th September 2005

No let up as yet......

 

[Royce]

We have to laugh at your comment Royce

Thread title: House prices to stagnate for 'years'
Started 19th September 2005

No let up as yet......

Bronte..when it comes time to sell my place ...I'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

Cheers

Royce

 

[wayneL]

Elliott Wave analysis on real estate.

 

[tech/a]

Here is the latest count!!

 

[YChromozome]

In one of the papers today they have the typical interview with someone on personal wealth asking what has been their best investment, worst etc. This person indicated they didn't like shares because :

When shares goes down, you have nothing.

If property goes down, at least you still have the land, the house and the tenants.

 

[Spineli]

If property goes down, at least you still have the land, the house and the tenants.

...but no money to buy food?

 

[YChromozome]

...but no money to buy food?

Could do. I think she had something like 11 properties and was was buying 1 property a year on a interest only loan, because rising asset prices will always mean rising equity.

I put to this smart cookie in the paper about her statement :

If BHP falls 10%, you have 90% of your asset left by value and you still get dividends.

If your rental falls in value by 10%, you still have 90% of your asset left by value and you still get a rental yield from your tenant.

What really worries me, is these people actually believe what they are saying. At least I had a little chuckle at it.

 

[Spineli]

Could do. I think she had something like 11 properties and was was buying 1 property a year on a interest only loan, because rising asset prices will always mean rising equity.

I put to this smart cookie in the paper about her statement :

If BHP falls 10%, you have 90% of your asset left by value and you still get dividends.

If your rental falls in value by 10%, you still have 90% of your asset left by value and you still get a rental yield from your tenant.

What really worries me, is these people actually believe what they are saying. At least I had a little chuckle at it.

Investing in the housing market is a lot safer. How you define safe is up to you. What all traders need to remember is that, unless you are an 'informed trader', all you doing is gambling or speculating. You may be heaping up quite a fortune, but be reassured informed traders count on uninformed traders to keep their living. Your loss or gain is also someone else's gain!

 

[jkool]

Spineli: While I could maybe agree with you on your argument about trading, you should not forget that investing and trading are (at least by most definitions) two different disciplines.

In other words I think you should be comparing investing in real estate to investing in shares and/or trading real estate (ie. flipping or whats the newest buzzword for this) and trading shares.

What do you think?

Cheers
jkool

 

[wayneL]

The prevailing apocrypha on a potential house price correction is that only houses at the low end will suffer. This was not my observation in the early 90's when many top end properties were crushed.

This article shows some trouble in one of the creme de la creme of premium markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=aMKeLQNc.kVE&refer=home

Luxury Home Prices Fall in New York's Long Island (Update2)

By Brian Louis

April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Luxury home prices slid in New York's Long Island and Queens in the first quarter as more property came onto the market and took longer to sell, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said.

The median sales price fell 5.3 percent to $900,000 from a year earlier and houses took 25 percent more time to lure a buyer, the companies said today in a report. An oversupply of expensive houses for sale is reducing demand, Jonathan Miller, president of New York-based Miller Samuel, said in an interview.

``You're just not seeing the demand level that you had been seeing in prior years,'' Miller said. ``You just reached a saturation point to what the economy could support.''

The decline in the luxury market in these areas outside Manhattan mirrors a drop in prices across the U.S. In Manhattan, the most expensive urban real estate market in the U.S., the median apartment price rose 1.2 percent in the first quarter to $835,000, the smallest quarterly gain in five years, Miller Samuel and New York-based Prudential said on April 3.

The luxury market is defined as houses priced from $750,000 to $12.5 million, Miller said. This survey doesn't include the Hamptons, New York's summer getaway for the rich and famous, or the North Fork on the east end of Long Island.

Longer Selling Time

In the first quarter, it took owners 121 days to sell their homes, compared with 97 days a year earlier, a sign demand has weakened.

The median sale price of a condominium dropped 4 percent to $240,000, Miller Samuel and Prudential said. The total number of condominium sales rose 6.2 percent to 1,312.

The weakness at the high end also hurt the overall housing market on Long Island, which includes the suburbs of Nassau and Suffolk counties, and in Queens, a borough of New York City.

The Long Island housing market is usually slower in the first quarter and results in the second quarter will be a better barometer of the market's condition.

``The true test is to watch the second quarter,'' Dottie Herman, president and chief executive officer of Prudential, said in an interview.

Sales fell 6.4 percent to 7,001 from a year ago and the median sales price slipped less than 1 percent to $437,500. The number of homes for sale jumped 18 percent to 31,954.

``Inventory levels today are double what they were two years ago,'' Miller said. ``It's a real issue. What that's going to do is temper any price appreciation going into the spring market.''

 

[robots]

hello,

gee another week has past,

must be a couple of new blogs around claiming a bust, or some "opinion" from gun economist and a few affordability crisis stories in the paper

keep up the hype

thankyou

robots

 

[Kimosabi]

hello,

gee another week has past,

must be a couple of new blogs around claiming a bust, or some "opinion" from gun economist and a few affordability crisis stories in the paper

keep up the hype

thankyou

robots

The biggest thing that has busted around here lately is your record player....

 

[YChromozome]

The biggest thing that has busted around here lately is your record player....

Give the poor guy a break. He just graduated from his Real Estate Agents course and is trying hard now to get noticed by the HIA for a possible job.

 

[wayneL]

hello,

gee another week has past,

must be a couple of new blogs around claiming a bust, or some "opinion" from gun economist and a few affordability crisis stories in the paper

keep up the hype

thankyou

robots

Ironic innit.

 

[Kimosabi]

Give the poor guy a break. He just graduated from his Real Estate Agents course and is trying hard now to get noticed by the HIA for a possible job.

Last I heard, most Real Estate Agents in Melbourne/Sydney were driving Taxi's...

 

[YChromozome]

Last I heard, most Real Estate Agents in Melbourne/Sydney were driving Taxi's...

Quite true. The last I heard from the ABS too, was in the three years to last December house prices fell an average of 8.8 per cent in Sydney.

 

[Kimosabi]

Quite true. The last I heard from the ABS too, was in the three years to last December house prices fell an average of 8.8 per cent in Sydney.

Oh, you heathen, didn't you know that house prices never go down...

 

[wayneL]

Another way for housing to crash

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6570000/newsid_6575000/6575077.stm?bw=nb&mp=wm

 

[YChromozome]

Another way for housing to crash :

Gives a new meaning to safe as houses! Even the stock market doesn't crash that fast. .

 

[robots]

hello,

is great to see people living in these apartment/unit blocs now, balconies all of sudden have tables, chairs, BBQ's great stuff

people will be a bit more "proud" of their living space

hope some sydney people can let us know the state of their market, because I understand from my own research things are solid there

thankyou

robots