numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
- Joined
- 12 October 2006
- Posts
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- 1
Not if you are actually long bond futuresTouche'
LOL
(....but isn't it a DE-ramp)
Home prices fall for first time in 11 years
Case-Shiller price index shows prices dropping in 17 of 20 cities in January
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices continued to fall in January, with prices in 10 major cities now down 0.7% year-over-year, according to Standard & Poor's and MacroMarkets LLC, which released the January Case-Shiller price indexes on Tuesday.
Here is the Chart
Not if you are actually long bond futures:
Yeah, but we knew what he meantDon't they appreciate in value when the interest rates go down?
Hello
Im an estate agent (can hear the boos and hisses already).
I work in good south dublin areas - high prices, healthy demand (usually).
Been reading all the links about peoples opinions on where they think the market is and where they think its going etc.
Just to set the record straight from someone in the business 6 days a week.
1) in general, the south dublin market is down 15% - 20% on last year.
I am talking actual sale price, you can throw guides out the window.
2) in gereral, the south dublin market is down 15% - 20% if, that is, you can get a bid and hence a sale.
3) I have 21 properties for sale - more than ive ever had before.
3 have bids.
no competing bids.
bids are low, and much lower than what the owner wants / needs.
maybe 1 will sell.
4) since 1st January, I have sale agreed 12 properties.
10 have fallen through, 2 sold (at substantially lower prices).
Out of the 10 that fell through, only 1 has had another bid since.
As its lower than the first bid, that sale aint going anywhere.
5) i refuse to take on apartments because the owners have an over-inflated opinion of their price.
The market for apartments has bombed.
Irish people want to live in houses - apartments are temporary.
There is a colossal amount of new apartments on the market making it practically impossible to shift 2nd hand ones without a massive reduction in price.
hence the domino effect :
someone selling an apartment (and buying a house) will get much less than they initially calculated. Consequently, they can now only bid much less for the house. The house seller refuses the offer because it is too low (even though it may be the highest and best price out there). Therefore, both sale agreeds fall through and inventories build up.
Guide prices may stay the same throughout (not reflecting the real lower prices).
Although guide prices stay the same, it masks the reality that real prices are falling.
Incidentially, the sellers determine guide prices - not estate agents. We provide the guide, they provide the price !
We must follow their instructions no matter how bad we tell them it is.
Hence guide prices reflect what they are looking for, not the real market.
On occasions, some people are lucky enough to sell their apartment for a high price. These people can then go on to successfully buy a house at a high price.
Hence some houses are still going for reasonably high prices.
But, i cannot stress enough, this is generally a rare event.
6) I do not sell new developments but i know a lot of developers very well.
Most new developments are having a torrid time.
Developers will accept a much lower price than what they are quoting.
There is a serious overhang from the past 7 months and developers of these properties are trying to get out before the new crop hits the market.
7) Some developments are doing well.
These are housing developments (NOT APARTMENTS), in good locations and well priced.
Well priced can mean the same price as last year but with much better furnishings and contents, hence, same price - but much more for it.
Or, in effect, if the house had the same (lack of) contents as last year, it would achieve a lower price.
This is extremely important as it is providing 'evidence' that house prices are not falling and we are heading for a 'soft landing'.
This is WRONG.
Example:
Last year house price €1,000,000.
This year house price €1,000,000 (but with €100,000 extras).
Officially no change in house prices.
Reality, house prices down €100,000.
Dont be fooled, Developers know the markets gone.
8) Some of the best known estate agents are (quietly) closing down offices and letting people go.
The ones that havent already, are planning it.
9) Banks are looking for reasons / excuses not to give out money.
This has taken even me by surprise, as in all my years of experience (ok only 6), ive never come across this.
Out of the 10 sale agreeds that i mentioned earlier that fell through, 6 were because of banks saying 'NO'.
10) In hindsight, the high of the market was in April 2006.
Prices stayed high until august/september, with an unusually large amount of activity in between (no summer lull).
Buyers disappeared sometime around august/september and consequently so did the prices.
This happened before minister mcdowells comments on stamp duty and whilst it didnt start the process, it certainly hasnt helped entice the first time buyers back into the market.
There are buyers out there - but most are sitting on the sidelines.
And YES, that means if you were unlucky to buy anytime after March 2006, you are looking at a loss should you wish to sell.
Please note that the above 10 points are FACTS !
They are not projections or opinions or assumptions, but based upon real deals.
My experiences are not unusual and generally reflect those of my colleagues and estate agent friends across the entire south dublin area.
I am not saying the markets doomed as i cannot predict the future.
However, it has certainly dropped to the extent that many of my comrades in the business are starting to look at the posibility of changing jobs.
here the market is booming.
prices in Melbourne started moving around september 2006
:sleeping: De-Ramp :sleeping:
This is commonly referred to as a 'Dead Cat Bounce'
Do you have evidence to support this claim?
There is correlation however.you guys still waffling on like the sky is falling?
newsflash!
we arent in the U.S, or Ireland. I doubt anyone here owns property in these places.
We are in AUSTRALIA
here the market is booming.
what you are doing is effectively stopping your car along the freeway everytime you see a car wreck, jumping out & taking photos cos its just so darn exciting! meanwhile, every other car on the road got to their destination days ago.
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