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House prices to stagnate for 'years'

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Excellent post there, asx Gorilla!
Very well put.
 
they're just expensive for YOU!

This is a fact. Not only for Kris (S.T.C) but for many others. Even those who do this as part of their living (Myself) have to re adjust whats "expensive".

People in Sydney think our Esplanade properties are a steal/same with inner city.So where are they parking $$s---in Sydney? You can buy 3 houses here for the price of one.A 15% rise is the same here as there---but who's likely to get it? Whos taking less risk---those in Sydney or those investors FROM Sydney.

So you cant afford Adelaide.---Look country.

Why is it that the majority of Posters here follow the Smalls?
I'll guess.

(1) They can make 30-50% in a few weeks even days.
(2) They're cheap I can buy more.
(3) Everyones doing it.
The parellels in the Stock market and the Property market are certainly there.

Just as you look for value in stocks---your gem may well be anothers disaster.

Start at the beginning NOT in the middle.
I'll bet those with fore closures started in the middle!!

Think about it.
 
In general I think the thread topic cannot be discussed satisfactorily or to a conclusion due to the disparity between the markets around the country at the moment. If you take Sydney & Melbourne, for eg, should/could we take that as a 'mature' market and as a possible future direction for other markets like Perth now & Adelaide soon?. You could say that, generally, the Sydney market has stagnated for around 3 years now?. Which means that as the other markets 'mature' they will face the same fate. That is, there comes a point where the prospect for meaningful gains diminishes, as the best gains in this cycle have been made.
If you take 'maturity' to be when wages & salaries are unable to service mortgages above the average mortgage then the market comes back to some sort of equilibrium I assume?.

As each city/area gets to this mature (consumer pain threshold?) level then house prices in Australia generally will 'stagnate'?. Or, to put it another way, for those advocating the 'getting on with it' approach what drivers are there to drive Sydneys average house prices higher, because it will always be limited to peoples ability to service their loans. And, what does the record level of loan defaulters imply for the market ?. Possibly that as each level of house price points are breached more borowers will be unable to pay back thier loans. A previous poster implied this level to be currently around $600k, as under this the market was past maturity & in decline.

This is a general statement as obviously there are good investments to be made even in mature markets.
 
The ultimately irony of this entire thread is that the title itself implies that housing should become more affordable IF you continue to develop your earning ability...so why give up now?
 
Dr Doom said:
In general I think the thread topic cannot be discussed satisfactorily or to a conclusion due to the disparity between the markets around the country at the moment. .

Maybe its time this thread was closed down too, its runs its course, and we are all just rehashin the same old stuff.
 
Stop_the_clock said:
Maybe its time this thread was closed down too, its runs its course, and we are all just rehashin the same old stuff.

I agree.
Those that do well out of property will always be on one side.
Those that dont---the other.

BOTH are correct---Both succeed well in their chosen stance.
 
perhapes with rental prices set to soar it will attract more investment into housing and potentially give the market a small leg up another factor than may influence pirces in years to come could occur when the mining boom slows. There will be alot of people from WA and QLD with big dollars looking to relocate where to new work or just move out of the desert to a more comfortable environment. Pure speculation
 
Bronte said:
Average House price hits 200,000 UK Pounds
No Slowdown as yet!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6353321.stm

http://www.express.co.uk/news_detail.html?sku=1218

UK Market about to roll over

 
Should be 230% not 230 times. But RICS is used to exaggerating

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=4057&cat=44-0-0

 
As each week goes by and more information comes out regarding global housing markets it becoming clearer that there is a growing disconnect with what is happening between financial markets and housing markets, so much so that either market will have to re-adjust at more than 'a measured pace' ie a big correction.

The evidence is such that consumers are being squeezed from multiple directions, mirroring the case in Australia with mortgage interest rates and rents rising. The revelation by HSBC that they underestimated their bad sub-prime loans is but the tip of the iceburg.

Some negatives for the US, derived from the real estate bust domino effect -
- as a general measure of how well the US is doing, last qtrs GDP will be revised down by a substantial amount.
- Capital is leaving the US at record levels
- U.S. industrial production fell in January by the largest amount since Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast in September 2005
- Ben Bernanke

The other side of the coin is that the 'goldilocks' bull markets haven't yet priced a hard landing for real estate into the equation yet, preferring to have financial pareidolia.

I think we can forget about stagnation, how about a hard landing?. I'm not 'getting it' yet.
 
And closer to home........(emphasis added)

"THE Perth house price boom has ended and Sydney has fallen deeper into the red as the property downturn continues to bite, with analysts predicting months more pain for homeowners.
House price growth in Perth slowed to just 1.7 per cent in the December quarter, with property prices in the city now growing at the fourth-slowest rate in the country, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.

In Sydney, median house prices fell 1 per cent in the quarter - reversing slight gains made earlier in the year - as the impact of last year's three rate rises was digested by the nation's weakest property market.

Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said housing affordability in NSW remained the lowest in the country, but flat or falling prices were slowly attracting first-home buyers and investors back into the Sydney market.

Mr Dale said the effect of last year's interest rate rises would continue to dampen house price growth until at least June.

National house price growth slowed to 0.9 per cent in the December quarter, resulting in annual growth of 8.3 per cent.

That slowdown was driven by the cooling Perth market, which had delivered total house price growth of 34.6 per cent in the first three quarters of last year as the state rode the resources boom.

Elsewhere in the country, house price growth remained relatively subdued in the December quarter except in Brisbane and Darwin, where prices grew by a respectable 3 per cent.

"We expect Brisbane will lead the housing recovery over the next two years," BIS Shrapnel senior analyst Jason Anderson said yesterday. "Brisbane is where rental growth has been strongest, it's where pressures are greatest and I think that's showing up in this price growth."

Mr Anderson said Perth prices were likely to fall 1 per cent this year because that market had "overshot" during the boom.

Macquarie Bank head of property Rod Cornish said interest rates were expected to remain on hold this year as inflation pressures eased.

And he predicted the Reserve Bank would probably cut rates early next year in an attempt to stimulate building activity in the floundering NSW and Victorian markets.

Mr Anderson said Sydney would remain a two-tier market, with house prices in the city's struggling outer-western suburbs expected to fall as much as 5 per cent this year, while inner-city areas could show slight growth.

"There's still this tug of war going on between what buyers are asking and what people are prepared to pay," he said.

In a sign of the weakness in Sydney's outer suburban housing market, Stockland - Australia's second-biggest property group - last week revealed only 96 of the 1900 blocks of land it had sold in the past six months were in NSW."
 
Bronte said:
Has anyone heard of the Scarborough Environs Area Strategy Project (S.E.A.S) ?
We bought luxury Scarborough Beach W.A. apartments back in 2001
Same story: "Rents just keep flying ahead".
Just out of interest:
The West Australian newspaper is reporting today that:
Scarborough was the 'Top Performing WA Suburb' for the December 2006 quarter.
With a whopping 17.9% increase just for the December three month period.
 
Bronte said:
Just out of interest:
The West Australian newspaper is reporting today that:
Scarborough was the 'Top Performing WA Suburb' for the December 2006 quarter.
With a whopping 17.9% increase just for the December three month period.
It is also reporting that 118 suburbs have gone DOWN.
 
Yes this is true Wayne.
Not even half of Perths suburbs (118 of 277)
We are surprised it wasn't more, after such an increase.
 
Bronte said:
Yes this is true Wayne.
Not even half of Perths suburbs (118 of 277)
We are surprised it wasn't more, after such an increase.

Not a bad start to the crash though... could be a gen-u-wine blow off top.

Yankee bubble markets in deep doo-doo. London showing slight falls - BTL in trouble. East coast Oz stagnant/down. West Coast blow off top.

Hark! Is that thunder I hear?

N.B. Expect some government pani... errr, plan to prop up house prices.
 

WayneL
The largest reported "drop" was 8.4% with most under 6%.......put in perspective with an average increase over the previous 12 months of 39% I would hardly term this a sell off "panic" situation. The same paper analysts are forecasting a "return to normal growth" of around 2% per quarter.

Also factor in Eric Rippers gaff of announcing "the possibility" of stamp duty cuts in the next budget in June causing a significant drop in first/new home buyer purchases.

There is no major panic sell off or ongoing major drop in Perth
property prices, there is a levelling off which is healthy. The papers just love to dramatise and report only selected information rather than balancing the picture. The West is no exception.

My disclosure I invest in property and will continue to do so.
 
But it is very clearly a sharp change in trend from up to down.

As for a return to "normal" growth of 2% per quarter, I assume those analysts are expecting wages to do likewise or interest rates to fall?
 
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