House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[clowboy]

N.B. Expect some government pani... errr, plan to prop up house prices.

You mean like buying 40% of the house with the first 3000 first home buyers that apply?

I have a friend that applied "just so that he is in the que" and he said that he is numder 600 something. The next day there was over 3000 applicants registered.

That should hold the market up for a qrter or two.

 

[tech/a]

Lets try another tact.

Rather than convince the Bears of the property market that it doesnt matter if it falls on its butt,if you have taken the appropriate due dilligence and invest in property professionally. Lets agree.

Well the market is definitely coming off all over Australia.
Excellent opportunities are becoming available.

(1) Land parcels easier to buy. Offers more likely to be accepted.
Even better JV's with land vendors mean no money down for the land component of a development.

(2)Sell off plan and dont start development until costs covered.

(3)Hang on----That means I dont need $500,000 capital or equity to do a reasonable development!----

(4)No wait a minute---too much risk!!!! Havent got the guts--Easier to moan.

Yep housings getting smashed.Best to watch the carnage.

 

[theasxgorilla]

invest in property professionally.

I think I've spotted a keyword in tech/a's post.

 

[wayneL]

(4)No wait a minute---too much risk!!!! Havent got the guts--Easier to moan.

Interesting some property bulls make these nasty comments about property bears. I think it says much about them

FYI There are plenty of property professionals OUT of the market for the moment. (Not making further purchases) because of valuation considerations?

Are they moaners and gutless? It's fine to disagree and make opposing points, but stop being a w@nker tech and have some respect for opposing opinions.

Rockingham (and others) has made his opinion plain for all to see without insulting anyone

FFS!!!!

Gorilla,

Not everyone wants to be a property professional. Most folk just want to buy a house at reasonable historical value metrics. I support them in this.

 

[robots]

hello,

people have to realize these prices are fair, not inflated or overpriced

things havent crashed but increased

get in now in quality unit or house, save hard, i didnt get it on a plate nor did Tech or most of us I would say

times are different dont get sucked in by history repeating itself and those promoting it, everything is different, lets see

16mths on for this thread, no crash

thankyou
robots

 

[tech/a]

Interesting some property bulls make these nasty comments about property bears

Professionals in ANY business are neither bullish or bearish.
I'm neither---Property/Trading/Business. I dont care how others percieve conditions.I'll do business as best I can in whatever I'm doing given whatever is dished up.

Professionals go about business given the conditions dished up to them.
I dont know of any PROFESSIONAL property developer/s who are out of the market.

Land SA make my investments look like a trip to the deli.
The latest release is 5000 blocks.
Hickenbothams (builder) one of our clients have just opened a 300 block subdivision and selling houses on their land and building them as fast as council will approve them.

Wayne the people you speak of arent professional.
They dabble in property. Its not their principal scource of income.
Those of us who are small---professionals look for those opportunities the huge players overlook.For them its not profitable to build a 5-10 apartment developement---but demand dictates opportunity. We fill a hole and service a need.

All jokes aside pro developers who read this thread would simply shake their heads.

Doesnt matter what industry you chose there will always be adversity.
Take the Fuel crisis.Did Toyota roll over and stick up the white flag?
Did the weaker players get taken out or forced to adjust their ways of thinking and doing business?
Did the car industry sit back and say time to stop manufacturing?
Did car dealers stop selling cars?

Opportunity---Identify it.
Opportunity---learn how to take advantage of it.
Opportunity---Take it!

Sure I get frustrated when I see constant excuses why this or that cant happen and how unfair life is.

This is the greatest counrty on earth ANYONE can succeed all it takes is effort.

Most choose to be victims of circumstance---its easier in the SHORT term
but life becomes more difficult in the LONG term.

Just look at most long term un employed who chose to be victims and sat home playing Playstation for anyone of 100 reasons.---easier at 20 harder at 30---lost cause at 40.--their choice!

 

[wayneL]

Professionals in ANY business are neither bullish or bearish.
I'm neither---Property/Trading/Business. I dont care how others percieve conditions.I'll do business as best I can in whatever I'm doing given whatever is dished up.

Professionals go about business given the conditions dished up to them.
I dont know of any PROFESSIONAL property developer/s who are out of the market.

Land SA make my investments look like a trip to the deli.
The latest release is 5000 blocks.
Hickenbothams (builder) one of our clients have just opened a 300 block subdivision and selling houses on their land and building them as fast as council will approve them.

Wayne the people you speak of arent professional.
They dabble in property. Its not their principal scource of income.
Those of us who are small---professionals look for those opportunities the huge players overlook.For them its not profitable to build a 5-10 apartment developement---but demand dictates opportunity. We fill a hole and service a need.

All jokes aside pro developers who read this thread would simply shake their heads.

Doesnt matter what industry you chose there will always be adversity.
Take the Fuel crisis.Did Toyota roll over and stick up the white flag?
Did the weaker players get taken out or forced to adjust their ways of thinking and doing business?
Did the car industry sit back and say time to stop manufacturing?
Did car dealers stop selling cars?

Opportunity---Identify it.
Opportunity---learn how to take advantage of it.
Opportunity---Take it!

Sure I get frustrated when I see constant excuses why this or that cant happen and how unfair life is.

This is the greatest counrty on earth ANYONE can succeed all it takes is effort.

Once again I must point out the distinction between property investors and property "developer" (traders in SM parlance)

I am a bear at the moment. I am also a professional trader.

Am I out of the market? Nope.
Am I short at the moment? Nope, not one short.
Am I long? Sure.

I'll make money in any market and I'm sure a professional property developer will also. I would have concerns with liquidity if the poo really did hit the propeller, but I'm sure those sort of contingencies are covered.

Investing is not developing and it's not really fair to consider people who buy houses to stick into a portfolio as amateurs. They're investors (let's presume they do their DD)

Investing is passive. You buy it, collect the yield and watch it grow. Anything else is trading/developing.

By any metric, housing is at the extreme expensive end of the spectrum, no matter who tries to spin it otherwise... let's not delude ourselves.

When it come to property, I am the opposite to what I am in the SM, i.e. an investor. I want to buy at fair value, with a yield at reasonable risk premium and with reasonable chances for growth. I just don't see that at the moment. When value eventually returns (however this is achieved) I will be bullish again, as I was up till about 2002-3.

Funnily enough, being a property bear (and a few familial connections) has opened a monumental opportunity for me in the UK, which I've mentioned before. Amazingly, it is much to do with property... asset management. Part of my remit is to aquire property at value, but my insistence that value is not currently present in the UK market is what clinched it... go figure.

Opportunity---Identify it.
Opportunity---learn how to take advantage of it.
Opportunity---Take it!

You betcha. But diff'rent strokes for diff'rent folks.

 

[Knobby22]

There is definitely a shortage of stock.
I also believe interest rates and inflation are rising at present. So why should the doom scenario happen?

If the government did something about the supply side i.e. advantage builders over investors in tax treatment (this is starting to happen), and also help with the demand side i.e. build low cost housing for the working class and lower middle class in the population sold at a subsidised price like they did in the 60s and 70s (not like it is now with only the problem people being looked after and put together to make more problems), then the builders and populace could both be happy.

I heard some great solutions on "The National Interest" which transmits on ABC Radio National, 12:05 to 1:00pm Sundays. The discussion may be heard fro the ABC website.

 

[krisbarry]

Just look at most long term un employed who chose to be victims and sat home playing Playstation for anyone of 100 reasons.---easier at 20 harder at 30---lost cause at 40.--their choice!

True, and it is your taxes that pay for this. That said...instead of bitching about it, why don't you teach a few of these long-term unemployed the skill sets you have, so they can make the choice to not be unemployed anymore.

You have the power to turn victims into survivors.

Better still, take a few onboard...you own a small business...now here is your chance!

 

[Knobby22]

True, and it is your taxes that pay for this. That said...instead of bitching about it, why don't you teach a few of these long-term unemployed the skill sets you have, so they can make the choice to not be unemployed anymore.

You have the power to turn victims into survivors.

Better still, take a few onboard...you own a small business...now here is your chance!

Not that simple.

 

[constable]

True, and it is your taxes that pay for this. That said...instead of bitching about it, why don't you teach a few of these long-term unemployed the skill sets you have, so they can make the choice to not be unemployed anymore.

You have the power to turn victims into survivors.

Better still, take a few onboard...you own a small business...now here is your chance!

hmmm..workcover liability is the first thing that pops into my head!

 

[krisbarry]

Not that simple.

tech/a has a knack to making everything look simple and continually spiels out lines from what sounds like "Anthony Robbins" . So why should it be difficult for him to take a few of these long-term unemployed people on in traineeships or as apprentices, or even mentor them.

source: http://www.anthonyrobbinsdc.com/

 

[krisbarry]

hmmm..workcover liability is the first thing that pops into my head!

tech/a would have an answer for that, he would find a way

 

[krisbarry]

By the way new rules have come in recently that allows companies to take on long-term unemployed people and the government picks up the work cover tab, so there is no excuses now!

 

[tech/a]

tech/a would have an answer for that, he would find a way

Kris.

They have to want to.
They have to have desire.

The building industry has a high staff turn over.
I hire the staff and its MY STAFF who move those who are less than passionate about what they do---on.

We've had those who start with great gusto and promise only to fall into the __Its a job___ catagory.

The guys in the field work damned hard and get paid well over award rates.
They dont want a slacker getting well over the award rate.

Mind you I have also found some great employees who have walked into our office looking for work.

They are there.
There are those who want to make a difference to their life.

One guy Robert walked in 5 times in a month,A huge man.

He had the desire

"Boss" he said everytime he saw me.
"I know how I look (There wasnt a space on his body that wasnt tattoo'd) and Ive made some stupid decisions but I really want a job with a future"
Rob had been a high ranking Ameteur boxer and had done some time for minor stuff.

I ended up giving Rob a go.
He stayed 3 yrs learnt excavator operation and was a good worker and friend to all his co workers.

He bought a house in that time---something he never dreamt of (he wanted somewhere for his brother and mum to feel safe in) had nothing to do with investment.Mind you it cost him half of what its worth today.

He also travelled to The Himalaya's. Rob was just blown away when he returned.

Hes now operating machines elsewhare but when I caught up with him around Xmas he was a vastly different much more confident man than the one I met almost 4 yrs ago.Mind you I always worried about what methods Rob may employ if he wanted a wage rise!!
From what he told me unfortunately he still does some silly things.

Wayne

I see your point and agree with your view.

 

[krisbarry]

I am so suprised that tech/a hasn't considered taking onboard long-term unemployed people, he has a wealth of knowledge, a small business, all the skill sets, and the government is throwing bucket loads of cash at business' to take these people onboard.

I see it as a win/win situation!

Take a situation you see around you and instead of bitching about it...be a part of the solution, not the problem.

I would be ever so proud to see tech/a turn a homeless unemployed lost soul into a worthwhile productive member of society and he has the power to do this, and make huge amounts of money along the way

Now that is an oppurtunity of a lifetime!

 

[theasxgorilla]

Not everyone wants to be a property professional. Most folk just want to buy a house at reasonable historical value metrics. I support them in this.

I like a quote from one of my favourite 'self helpers' Jim Rohn (inspiration to Anthony Robbins if people are curious):

"Life responds to deserve and not to need."

 

[krisbarry]

Kris.

They have to want to.
They have to have desire.

The building industry has a high staff turn over.
I hire the staff and its MY STAFF who move those who are less than passionate about what they do---on.

Ahhh here comes the 100 reason why you won't.

...and here lies the key to the reason why some members of society choose to play playstation and you bitch and moan because they do.

It's a win/win situation!

No one loses, if they don't turn out to be good workers, well hey, you have made money in the process, so how can you lose?

 

[wayneL]

I like a quote from one of my favourite 'self helpers' Jim Rohn (inspiration to Anthony Robbins if people are curious):

"Life responds to deserve and not to need."

I like Jim Rohn. He is the only one I like in fact. Wouldn't P%&$ on Robbins if he was on fire however.

Do you think a family whose breadwinner works in a worthwhile, productive job and earns respectable money, deserves to be able to purchase a house for his/her family at reasonable historical value metrics?

I do. Eventually, "deserve" wins, otherwise social unrest.

 

[theasxgorilla]

I'll be honest with you Wayne, I don't know. If the person who beats your hypothetical bread winner to the punch is a hypothetical ex-blue collar guy who saw the writing on the wall for the manufacturing sector in this country and went off to night school to get a new skill for the new century and ten years down the track he ends up renting his first investment property out to one of his buddies who is about to be laid off in the factory...how much deserve does each of them measure out?

Do you think wife of ex-blue collar man will let him lower the rent to do a favour for his buddy when it's their lifestyle and their kids up bringing that will be compromised and she experienced first hand the sacrifices her husband made?

I'll borrow another Rohn adage, learn to bring value. One guy learned how to remain valuable in the new century while the other watched his value diminish until he had so little that he could no longer negotiate.

I'll drop one last quote because Rohn says it a gazillion times better than I could ever hope to:

"Let others lead small lives,but not you.Let others argue over small things,but not you.Let others cry over small hurts,but not you.Let others leave their future in someone elses hands,but not you. not you."