House prices to keep rising for years

[pepperoni]

He obviously doesn't believe in any of our "miracle stories" with China and the rest...

... if he did Im sure he would be spend all 35 bil in melbourne units and negative gearing ... abs statistics have shown its the proven way to wealth.

 

[nioka]

I'm too old to worry about fame. However, without any recommendation and DYOR, I bought MOS. I have had MOS before and lost a little on the deal. I have bought back in for a long term investment as they are starting to go forward now as I see the situation. Read the MOS thread on ASF and read the company announcements.

Just to prove a point to the sceptics. The MOS shares are up over 10% and the options up over 40% so far and I bought both.

 

[CamKawa]

I forgot, what's the next stage after denial? Anger?

Source: http://qsuper.qld.gov.au/public/members/educational_tours/FYF/07w-Investoremotions.asp

 

[numbercruncher]

Thanks Camkawa !


Should put (2007) Beside " Euphoria " ?

 

[nioka]

Buffett says US is already in recession
Email Print Normal font Large font May 26, 2008 - 7:08AM

"I believe that we are already in a recession," Buffett was quoted by Spiegel as saying.

"Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession."

"It will be deeper and longer than what many think," he added.

The 77-year-old chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc was in Europe last week for what he called a "deferred shopping tour", looking for possible acquisitions.

Omaha-based Berkshire has about $US35 billion ($A36.62 billion) in cash and is looking to invest. :

Maybe he was downramping so that he will get better value for the $US35billion he has to invest. If things are that bad why is he shopping?

 

[numbercruncher]

Maybe he was downramping so that he will get better value for the $US35billion he has to invest. If things are that bad why is he shopping?

He must expect alot more pain !

Whys he sitting on so much USD ? strategic error ?

 

[Macquack]

... if he did Im sure he would be spend all 35 bil in melbourne units and negative gearing ... abs statistics have shown its the proven way to wealth.

I dont think Buffy Boy needs the tax deduction.
On current prices he could buy over 100,000 Melbourne home units for cash (and thats just his pocket money).

 

[numbercruncher]

Interesting little article about Australia's RE Auction/Joke/Scam

Looks like Realtors are getting unpopular and exposed ?

http://blogs.theage.com.au/moderntimes/archives/2008/05/who_do_those_shinyshoed_real.html

Auctions: an absolute joke


Who do those shiny-shoed real estate bozos think they are kidding? Here's the scene from a recent auction in Kensington:



Auctioneer: Good afternoon ladies and gentleman, A lovely day with not a cloud in the sky and twitter, twitter, bull-poop, bull-poop. What do I hear to start us off at 48 Rip-off Street?


(Sound of distant traffic. Squeak of rusty door. Ghostly wail of far-off kid).


Auctioneer: I've got time. (Thinks: God, it's like I Am Legend out here. Is anyone alive?)

(Auctioneer stares at road, folds and unfolds arms, thinks fondly of the Golden Era not so long back when bidders whacked each other with enormous sacks of borrowed loot -- like a mortgage pillow fight).

Finally auctioneer: Very well then, I'll make a VENDOR BID The bid is now 658,000. I'll take bids of 10,000 on top of that.


Whaaaaat, on top of a bid that doesn't actually exist? Is he kidding?


Still nothing. Agent does the "go inside to consult the vendor'' trick then comes out and -- fair dinkum - he ups the vendor bid with another vendor bid: $668,000.


Gee what a surprise: still no bids. People who didn't want to put any money on top of a phoney 658 don't want to top up 668 either. This is what is happening now the money supply is tightening up.


Now here's my problem. Since they outlawed phantom bidders in trees, up light poles and behind hedges (surely as bent a practice as cheating at cards) those shiny-shoed gavel-meisters have to declare bull-poop bids as ''Vendor Bids''. This is supposed to make the bidding honest and open and (what's that bull-poop political term again?) ah, yes, TRANSPARENT. But hang on just a second. What is a vendor? He's the bloke selling the property. Yes, here in Rip-off Street we have an owner supposedly making a bid to buy his own place.

Hilarious ! ( all part of the Clearance rate fudge I imagine )

 

[nioka]

He must expect alot more pain !

Whys he sitting on so much USD ? strategic error ?

Error yes. And with the US$ getting worth less and less he can't have a good year this year. Ah well we can't be right all the time.

 

[robots]

hello,

thats right peepie, the abs has shown that home-owners are 6x wealthier than the renters, great stats from ABS

glad you remember, you should ask you're father to bookmark the ABS page on the family computer for you,

even better as the rents go up and up

thankyou

robots

 

[gfresh]

What a useless stat...

So it means all the poor people who couldn't afford a property anyhow (nor would ever be offered finance) should go and buy one so they can all become wealthy?

Or maybe the reason they rent is that they're not wealthy enough to afford a property to begin with!

The rich get richer, and the poor make robots rich eh..

 

[robots]

hello,

no, it just tells me that most renters blow the $ week in and week out,

and then rock up on forums carrying on about re prices,

i am amzed because the rent vs buy discussion has been around for a while now, i believe in the rent/and invest pathway but many just dont do it

who saves 50% of their rent per week?

nothing wrong with renting, its the price of accommodation

i just think there is massive upside yoy in rents and as i move into my senior years i know i will have a roof over my head

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

All figures now showing a spanking for RE the last quarter ....

House prices on the decline

FALLING house prices have confirmed the days of a red-hot property market are over as buyers battle high interest rates and rising inflation, new figures suggest.

Not even WA's mining boom could save Perth from recording a decline, with house prices falling 2.5 per cent to $460,000.

Melbourne, Australia's second biggest city, recorded the most dramatic fall, with the median house price falling 8.4 per cent in the first three months of the year to $432,500, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).

Australia's largest city, Sydney, performed slightly better, with the median house prices down by 0.3 per cent to $554,000.

"The impact of interest rate rises and inflation is clearly being felt in the housing market as median house prices are beginning to go into negative territory for the first time in some years,'' REIA president Noel Dyett said in a statement.

The median house price dropped 6.8 per cent to $445,000 in Canberra.

Mr Dyett said potential homebuyers were fretting over purchasing a property because of rising inflation, high interest rates and the soaring cost of petrol and food.

"As a result, the housing market is beginning to suffer,'' Mr Dyett said.

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23750278-2761,00.html

I find Mr Dyett's of the REIA comment a little bearish, if a 8.4pc decline in Melbourne etc etc is " the housing market is beginning to suffer " ....

 

[Junior]

hello,

no, it just tells me that most renters blow the $ week in and week out,

and then rock up on forums carrying on about re prices,

i am amzed because the rent vs buy discussion has been around for a while now, i believe in the rent/and invest pathway but many just dont do it

who saves 50% of their rent per week?

nothing wrong with renting, its the price of accommodation

i just think there is massive upside yoy in rents and as i move into my senior years i know i will have a roof over my head

thankyou

robots

Generally speaking rental yields just don't stack up at the moment when compared to dividend yields on the ASX (and fully franked). As a young person it is much easier/less stressful to rent and grow a blue chip share portfolio rather then try and get into the housing market.

 

[pepperoni]

Generally speaking rental yields just don't stack up at the moment when compared to dividend yields on the ASX (and fully franked). As a young person it is much easier/less stressful to rent and grow a blue chip share portfolio rather then try and get into the housing market.

Too true ... for $750 a week Im renting a $4m-$5m house on balmoral slopes .. yes its a bargain but small bickies to the owner Im sure.

For the same money I could service a $300k mortgage that would get me a house in cabramatta, redfern or maquarie fields. Of course Id also get the privilege of burn money on my most hated things ... stamp duty and agents!!!!

Property investment = oxymoron. Moron being the operative part.

Property improvement/development CAN be profitable if you really know your stuff.

 

[pepperoni]

Another funny article ...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...website-crashes/2008/05/27/1211653994588.html

Im betting rents to go flat or fall if inflation and particularly oil squeeze "rental affordability" for the nuff nuffs.

There was a article in syd north shore paper saying that they were having trouble renting roperties again.

 

[CAFA1234]

Given That the real estate markets differ widely between suburbs in certain parts of cities and states, coastal or country,... city or rural or regional centres there is thousands of real estate markets in Australia all performorming differently.

You then have sectors within each market such as houses, town houses, low density units, high density units, commerial, retail and other various commerial, various industrial, Offices etc etc etc.

Why would you think that USA housing market has any relavence to Australian markets.

Sorry for delay. Are you claiming that the current credit contraction in the US, Spain, UK, Ireland, Iceland, nearly all the ex soviet booming economies has no impact on the Aussie housing market??? Have you looked at the NZ market of late. Just got back from Vancouver, Canada - the market has stopped. BTW Canada is running a large current account surplus and has lot of natural resources and budget surpluses - does that ring a bell?

We will have to disagree, but my view is that this is a function of a major credit crunch , as many of the worlds economists tend to think.

Your logic in that there are different markets is correct, but flawed in your final analysis.

 

[nomore4s]

Given That the real estate markets differ widely between suburbs in certain parts of cities and states, coastal or country,... city or rural or regional centres there is thousands of real estate markets in Australia all performorming differently.

You then have sectors within each market such as houses, town houses, low density units, high density units, commerial, retail and other various commerial, various industrial, Offices etc etc etc.

Why would you think that USA housing market has any relavence to Australian markets.

The current US housing market should serve as a warning to us here in Oz imo, property prices can go down very quickly when the bubble does burst.

Whether the bubble is getting ready to burst here I've got no idea but something has to give sooner or later - either prices coming down or wages going up. Both senarios cause problems imo.
As housing gets more unaffordable for your average Joe Blow the more chance we have of a situation like the US.

There are plenty of people out there who will get themselves in way above their heads for the dream of owning a house without any thought to how they will actually repay the loan.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Sorry for delay. Are you claiming that the current credit contraction in the US, Spain, UK, Ireland, Iceland, nearly all the ex soviet booming economies has no impact on the Aussie housing market??? Have you looked at the NZ market of late. Just got back from Vancouver, Canada - the market has stopped. BTW Canada is running a large current account surplus and has lot of natural resources and budget surpluses - does that ring a bell?

We will have to disagree, but my view is that this is a function of a major credit crunch , as many of the worlds economists tend to think.

Your logic in that there are different markets is correct, but flawed in your final analysis.

I am saying quoting what is happening in other markets has little relavence to Australian longterm viabilty of property investment.

I mean you can't even say "sydney residential market is down, So I better not invest in brisbane industrial property",... so why would you say "detroit real estate is down so North coast NSW is in trouble"

 

[CAFA1234]

I am saying quoting what is happening in other markets has little relavence to Australian longterm viabilty of property investment.

I mean you can't even say "sydney residential market is down, So I better not invest in brisbane industrial property",... so why would you say "detroit real estate is down so North coast NSW is in trouble"

I'm sorry to say that the point is missed. This is not about a particular market or sub-market, it is about the credit crunch that is impacting much of the western world. The US is the leading indicator, for a number of reasons, and "MAY" show what can happen in a market decline. The SCALE of the decline is the issue - this is bigger than the 1992 housing recession, and many financial indicators point to this being the biggest threat to financial markets since the 1930. This may or may not be correct. However to put one's head in the sand and suggest that there is zero impact is naive to say the least.


The Aussie housing market may not crash, however it is the view of many that it will not increase too much over the next few years. There will be pockets of course that do well, just as some shares will always go up, but for the masses property investment may not be the game it was in the years 2000 - 2006, and for some will be financial ruin. My view.

Declared Interest. Property on North Shore, Sydney, + Unit on Northern Beaches, Sydney and house in Brisbane suburb. Long term investor and not looking for much above 5% over long term inflation rate.

PS Small unit near Seal Beach, CA (next to Long Beach - look it up on Google maps) sold last week for $145k. It is for over 55s and all units are ground floor and in a security complex. Last year these were selling for over $200k