House prices to keep rising for years

[CAFA1234]

Perhaps you should look at some professional financial help to try and obtain some long term higher than market returns. Good luck.

Serious question - where does one get 'good' financial advice?

The average qualified financial planner will give you average, often 'big 4 bank' sourced, generic plans focused on diversification by use of various mutual funds. They are SO risk adverse that it is almost a joke.

I had hourly paid planners from 2 of the large bank planning groups create plans for me back in 2004/6 and although interesting reading, neither could plan in different income streams kicking in at different times within the pension phase.

And if you go for a specialty financial planning house then be very careful - much of the mezzanine finance for house developments (and now lost money) was sourced via financial planners. Like accountants or lawyers, average planers are two a penny, but good ones are very difficult to sniff out.


Serious question - where does one get 'good' financial advice?

Does anyone know of a sophisticated software model e.g. excel spreadsheet to model lifestyle financial planning?

Declared Interest:- qualified financial planner DPF 1-8 inclusive.

 

[brettc4]

During the finance report on ABC in Adelaide tonight, they talked about the number of employeed persons decreasing and should a graph of unemployment for the last 50 years.

They then also should a graph of house-hold debt over the last x years and said that the last time Australia was in a recession, household debt was 50% whereas it is currently around 150%.

I am not saying we are in a recession, but with increased unemployment there is the potential for increased financial hardship and possible foreclosures.

My personal view, is the property market is going to slow down, if not head in the opposite direction for a couple of years. That is my hope anyway as I will be looking to upgrade my property in 12-18 months

Brett

 

[Temjin]

Hey! This thread got revived. I was a little depressed to see it was gone.

The property is going to take a LONG WHILE to go through this potential downturn cycle. (unlike the share market where bad things can happen in less than 24 hours)

 

[professor_frink]

Oh dear god it's back

Would be nice if it stays civil this time folks

 

[bowseruni]

I personally think that house prices are dropping an in the next 6 months people will be dropping atleast 25% off current asking prices.

Between my house and the closest Westfield is about 3km's, use this as an example as i travel this road almost everyday for work/uni. I have been noticing that 3 months ago there was 4 houses forsale along this road, then 5, then 6. yesterday whilst riding my bike along i counted 10 places forsale and 1 lease wanted place.

Now this is only one street and i would say an average income area (not poor or dodgy and not mansions), I think this is a result from interest rates, sky rocketing fuel and general cost of goods increases.

Surely if this keeps happening house prices must seriously drop, can't see interest rates getting any better (possibly worse) in the near future and petrol, well that's a whole new topic.

what are your thoughts? house prices seriously drop in the next 6-12 months?

 

[stock_man]

what are your thoughts? house prices seriously drop in the next 6-12 months?

I think certain areas will drop by a good %, but overall I am seeing the market stay flat for years to come. Take Sydney for instance, it really hasn't had any price movement of significance for the last 5 years. Another 5 years of this would not hurt.

There will be a definate bottom to the market if it does drop. There are way too many property investors/speculators in this country. As soon as the price of a house drops to anywhere near neutral gearing, people will dive in - regardless of yeild (I know of property investors who would not even know the meaning of this word).

Maybe this is the new market cycle? Flat for long periods allowing inflation/wages/rent to catch up, followed by small bursts of increases?

 

[Temjin]

Maybe this is the new market cycle? Flat for long periods allowing inflation/wages/rent to catch up, followed by small bursts of increases?

This is essentially the best case scenario outcome. It really depends on the ability of Australians to keep their jobs and maintain their overall ability to service the debt while the world go through a new downturn cycle. If China does not seriously crash and just stagnate with modest growth, then maybe, just maybe...things will be not as basd.

But of course, if US goes down in a hard recession / depression style, then the emerging economics go down with it, then we will say hello to massive asset deflation in Australia.

 

[gfresh]

ahhh, good to see this thread back. It made good reading, and there was always both sides of the story which have some merits. I never noticed too much bickering - maybe some friendly arguments

Place for lease now downstairs this week.. I notice the rent price has actually dropped $10/wk (I remember because it was for lease 6 months ago). We'll see how long this takes to get filled, but another up the road has been vacant for weeks. Rental shortage, not enough properties?

While there is this talk of rental price hikes, some owners out there must surely be a little scared in jacking the price at the loss of a tenant in some areas? Even a few weeks could seriously damage somebody who is heavily geared.

 

[Macquack]

Robots, where are you?

 

[numbercruncher]

ahhh, good to see this thread back. It made good reading, and there was always both sides of the story which have some merits. I never noticed too much bickering - maybe some friendly arguments

Place for lease now downstairs this week.. I notice the rent price has actually dropped $10/wk (I remember because it was for lease 6 months ago). We'll see how long this takes to get filled, but another up the road has been vacant for weeks. Rental shortage, not enough properties?

While there is this talk of rental price hikes, some owners out there must surely be a little scared in jacking the price at the loss of a tenant in some areas? Even a few weeks could seriously damage somebody who is heavily geared.

Yes the Rental shortage is just a scam perped by the dishonest Spruikers and their media mates, sure certain desirable suburbs have a shortage but the spruikers use that as a blanket debate.

No shortage, prices falling , plenty of vacancys and as we can see even rent falling in places.

Realestate.com.au - check it out 10s of thousands of rentals available simply because so many people fell into the RE boom/trick thing that was going on

I also noticed so much RE coming to market forsale quite unbelievable, so much for a shortage eh ?

 

[Temjin]

Here is one on the housing shortgage myth. Always wanted to post this link but this thread was closed before the blog entry was out.

http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=458

Yes the Rental shortage is just a scam perped by the dishonest Spruikers and their media mates, sure certain desirable suburbs have a shortage but the spruikers use that as a blanket debate.

You are quite right there numbercruncher.

So, what is there such a superstition in the first place? In reality, the housing 'shortage' superstition is the result of an illusion. The illusion arises from the fact that there is a mismatch of housing demand and supply. In some parts of Sydney, there is an over-demand for housing, which gives rise to the housing ’shortage’ illusion. In other parts of Sydney, there is an over-supply of housing (some of them brand new) that are unwanted.

Never fully believe what the media tells you.

 

[robots]

hello,

have been down at folks place in mt martha for the week, didnt have password to log-in but kept up with some reading,

place next door to folks just sold (only days ago) went for 50k less than original asking price, it was a deceased estate

place was on market for just under 3-mths, parnets having lived in area for 10yrs now were amazed at the price considering all the hype that the world had ended,

thankyou

robots

 

[explod]

hello,

have been down at folks place in mt martha for the week, didnt have password to log-in but kept up with some reading,

place next door to folks just sold (only days ago) went for 50k less than original asking price, it was a deceased estate

place was on market for just under 3-mths, parnets having lived in area for 10yrs now were amazed at the price considering all the hype that the world had ended,

thankyou

robots

That is a huge drop for Mount Martha. For the retiring baby boomers probably the most desirabe destination anywhere. No crime, isolated yet near to everything. Best medical, beach, and on and on.

Good try old Pal, but you cannot compare Mount Martha with normal real estate values.

 

[saiter]

Here is one on the housing shortgage myth. Always wanted to post this link but this thread was closed before the blog entry was out.

http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=458

So, what is there such a superstition in the first place? In reality, the housing 'shortage' superstition is the result of an illusion. The illusion arises from the fact that there is a mismatch of housing demand and supply. In some parts of Sydney, there is an over-demand for housing, which gives rise to the housing ’shortage’ illusion. In other parts of Sydney, there is an over-supply of housing (some of them brand new) that are unwanted.

Never fully believe what the media tells you.

Doesn't that still mean that there is a housing shortage in those parts of Sydney and that the media storm was justified?

 

[robots]

hello,

just for the record the auction clearance rates in Melbourne over the last 3-4 weeks have been around the 62-64% mark, great news

i know many look forward to my auction reports, a bit like bigdogs daily report on stocks,

auction rates around this figure were last seen in 03-04 before the big leg up that occurred in 07, i wonder if this is the start of the next big leg up in time to come

thankyou

robots

 

[explod]

Dear Robots,

Sefton Grange Estate, east side of Napean Hwy off Craige Road, Mount Martha, 3 months ago $450,000 now offering for 320,000 and still cant sell them, one of the few that did sell, owners very distraught.

Close to Melbourne people still buying big time to be near work due to fuel prices. Of course few people realise there is a problem yet. Be interesting when the rising costs really hit home in August/September.

thankyou
explod

 

[robots]

hello,

thanks for the information, good to see someone doing some research like myself, great stuff

you are a bit like me explod out there getting the facts and reporting them for fellow asf users,

thankyou

robots

 

[rub92me]

I think certain areas will drop by a good %, but overall I am seeing the market stay flat for years to come. Take Sydney for instance, it really hasn't had any price movement of significance for the last 5 years.

Huh? The better suburbs (Lower North Shore, Inner West, East) have probably seen an increase of 40% to >100% over 5 years.

 

[CAFA1234]

Huh? The better suburbs (Lower North Shore, Inner West, East) have probably seen an increase of 40% to >100% over 5 years.

Is this based on any form of fact - like tax returns or local authority assessments? Yes, there are individual examples of these increases, but also a lot of going no where.

Regular readers will know that I own single family home on North Shore, and part owner of unit in Manly area (Northern Beeches), and I don't think the values have moved very much since about 2003/4.

Please post details of areas (as opposed to single houses) where there has been 100% increase since Jan 2004 in Sydney.

 

[bowseruni]

Of course few people realise there is a problem yet. Be interesting when the rising costs really hit home in August/September.

exactly, that is why i will be looking to buy around christmas or jan/feb. People are in too much debt, fuel is ridiculous...and not going to get any better
unemployment rate isn't too bad at the moment....but time will tell how that changes.

house prices have no choice but to go down (in the real world anyway) The only thing i see increasing is the very inner city places because of rising fuel costs.