House prices to keep rising for years

[nioka]

Hey CAFA,

[Quote:] "...Nioka, if you are serious about making 72.5% return on 6 figure sums then please, we need to speak. I need a mentor - you are doing far better than me over the past year. Like about 5/7 times better..." [Unquote]

I think Pepperoni needs a mentor more than you. I don't doubt his ability to amass a good property portfolio but to suggest that money is currently much safer in the bank is ludicrous. Whilst I can't boast Nioka's 'Magnificent' returns I as an inexperienced market investor have returned in excess of 20% on money invested on the stock market since the 19/2/08.

I haven't posted to boast. There are plenty doing much better than I am and they are posting on ASF. I look at it as a defeat not to have doubled my money. I'm just pointing out that it is there to be made. My simple advice is to do plenty of research, don't follow the mob, especially the lemmings, and don't make it a gamble.

 

[theasxgorilla]

I hope you are not just "using" Annika for your own financial gain?

Hell no! She cooks and cleans and looks hot in and out of a bikini. Financial gains are ancillary benefits Macquack.

 

[Macquack]

Hell no! She cooks and cleans and looks hot in and out of a bikini.

Is she in the Swedish Bikini Team?

 

[Julia]

I have calculated that so far this year I have made a profit of $72,500 per $100,000 invested in the stock market.

And without leverage, as I recall. Congratulations Nioka. That's a great result.

 

[Mofra]

Anyone else foolish enough to scoff at cash should remember that year-to-date, the ASX200, is down about 9%. And it only rose about 12% in 2007.

Not a very good year. Not even good over 2 years.

Do the after tax return vs inflation math on that one

Do you know many people who consider at property (which is the subject of this thread) a short term investment? Most investers I know treat residential property as a long term investment.

If you want to compare apples with apples, please provide your analysis which shows cash has outperformed property over the last 7 years +

Thanks in advance

 

[CAFA1234]

It is because others are in the red that I have done well. If it was not for the lemming factor causing people to sell at low prices or not recognising emerging producers I would have probably only made a modest return. For every loser there is a winner. By using an edecated guess you are right more than 70% of the time. It is not lies, luck or a freakish gift in any manner of form. Just research and making good use of information available to all and often found on ASF. By the way I have researched over 25 companies today and invested in one. All have had a mention on ASF this week.

Nioka, nows your chance for fame, as you have already made your bet, post the details so we can all follow. Accepting that you will only be right 70% of the time. Which stock did you buy yesterday?

 

[nioka]

Nioka, nows your chance for fame, as you have already made your bet, post the details so we can all follow. Accepting that you will only be right 70% of the time. Which stock did you buy yesterday?

I'm too old to worry about fame. However, without any recommendation and DYOR, I bought MOS. I have had MOS before and lost a little on the deal. I have bought back in for a long term investment as they are starting to go forward now as I see the situation. Read the MOS thread on ASF and read the company announcements.

 

[CAFA1234]

I'm too old to worry about fame. However, without any recommendation and DYOR, I bought MOS. I have had MOS before and lost a little on the deal. I have bought back in for a long term investment as they are starting to go forward now as I see the situation. Read the MOS thread on ASF and read the company announcements.

thanks - appreciate your candidness - I'm equally open about my investments, I never mind after i have got in

All of these boards would be much better if people did actually post their buys and sells - I'm sure there would be a few less bullsh*iters around !

 

[pepperoni]

Do you know many people who consider at property (which is the subject of this thread) a short term investment? Most investers I know treat residential property as a long term investment.

I dont consider property a long term investment. If I did I wouldnt expect much better return than cash.

But thats not the point ... who wants to follow a market down?

And a PPOR is a PPOR ... I dont see the point in investment dictating where or how I live.

Cash is doing well now. We can crap on about tax but all gains end up taxed to a substantial degree.

And we can crap on about inflation but Im hardly going to buy $2m worth of petrol and bananas ... Ill but shares or property both of which are about 10% down this year on my observations ... so I guess on your your sort of quick and dirty comparative analysis Im making 18% pa before tax.

 

[pepperoni]

I haven't posted to boast. There are plenty doing much better than I am and they are posting on ASF. I look at it as a defeat not to have doubled my money. I'm just pointing out that it is there to be made. My simple advice is to do plenty of research, don't follow the mob, especially the lemmings, and don't make it a gamble.

Congratulations if its true, but to make those returns or even aspire to them you are definitely gambling ... although there may be some gambling type system behind it (charts or whatever).

And Ill bet my screen name you dont ever do it again. And doing it means doing ACROSS YOUR WHOLE PORTFOLIO FOR A WHOLE FINANCIAL YEAR. Not "I made 70% on a share one month but all my others are down 50%."

In fact Ill bet you cant even average more than Buffets 30% odd over 2 years ... and that assuming you are of similar genius to him.

 

[nioka]

Congratulations if its true, And Ill bet my screen name you dont ever do it again. And doing it means doing ACROSS YOUR WHOLE PORTFOLIO FOR A WHOLE FINANCIAL YEAR. Not "I made 70% on a share one month but all my others are down 50%."

If it was for tax reasons that I was working on so it IS for the WHOLE year. It is for profit made. You know, the profit made if you sell for more than you pay. You know the bit the ATO is interested in. You know the bit that shows AFTER you deduct the losses. Maybe I wont have an AGM or an LYC or an AOE next year but then it could be NSL (showing me up 91.39% today) or another lot of AOE (showing me up 91.74% today) plus a few others mostly in green. Of course there is CNP, just in red ink at the moment but an educated guess tells me I will make wages out of it soon. ADI is also one of my holdings which has a better than 50% chance of bettering this year on it's own.

:

 

[CAFA1234]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of existing home sales in the United States fell 1 percent in April to a 4.89 million-unit annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Friday that was slightly better than expectations.

But inventories of unsold homes rose measurably, surging 10.5 percent to 4.55 million units at the end of April. At the current sales pace that would put the supply of homes at 11.2 months' worth, the highest since the association began tracking single family and condo properties together in 1999.

For single family homes, at the current sales pace there were 10.7 months' worth, the biggest supply since June 1985 when it stood at 11.4 months.

------------------------------------------------

So, bigger supply than the deep recession of 1992. According to the L.A. Times this morning over 100 mortgage lenders have withdrawn from the market since Jan 2007. The big issue is the reluctance of lenders to lend to anyone other than the highest credit score people. Many people simply can't get financing without a good deposit.

 

[Mofra]

I dont consider property a long term investment. If I did I wouldnt expect much better return than cash.

So it's a short term investment then? Ok, stamp duty isn't much of a burden anyway

But thats not the point ... who wants to follow a market down?

And a PPOR is a PPOR ... I dont see the point in investment dictating where or how I live.

Following a market down? Not every suburb in Australia is falling, and rents are rising. I'm happy with a short term fluctation a few suburbs further away whilst my rents rise.
I don't own a PPOR - don't like deductable debt, and I like to live in older style houses that generally cost more to maintain (and I don't want to pay for that maintennace) so the second point is moot.

Cash is doing well now. We can crap on about tax but all gains end up taxed to a substantial degree.

Cap gains indexed over a number of years are not taxed anywhere near the top marginal rate.
Having a property to leverage against as a form of cheap capital is quite handy as well - borrowing against cash offers less flexibility (most lenders will substitute to cash but not set-up a new loan against it at mortgage rates)

And we can crap on about inflation but Im hardly going to buy $2m worth of petrol and bananas ... Ill but shares or property both of which are about 10% down this year on my observations ... so I guess on your your sort of quick and dirty comparative analysis Im making 18% pa before tax.

No, you are making approx 0.18% net regardless of the movement of the broader equities market, bananas or toy unicorns.
Personally, as a net credit spread ETO trader I'm happy with any extra volitility in the market as a high proportion of my yearly investment income does not rely on the direction of the broader market, just the fact that it in fact does move at all.

 

[Tysonboss1]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of existing home sales in the United States fell 1 percent in April to a 4.89 million-unit annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Friday that was slightly better than expectations.

But inventories of unsold homes rose measurably, surging 10.5 percent to 4.55 million units at the end of April. At the current sales pace that would put the supply of homes at 11.2 months' worth, the highest since the association began tracking single family and condo properties together in 1999.

For single family homes, at the current sales pace there were 10.7 months' worth, the biggest supply since June 1985 when it stood at 11.4 months.

------------------------------------------------

So, bigger supply than the deep recession of 1992. According to the L.A. Times this morning over 100 mortgage lenders have withdrawn from the market since Jan 2007. The big issue is the reluctance of lenders to lend to anyone other than the highest credit score people. Many people simply can't get financing without a good deposit.

Given That the real estate markets differ widely between suburbs in certain parts of cities and states, coastal or country,... city or rural or regional centres there is thousands of real estate markets in Australia all performorming differently.

You then have sectors within each market such as houses, town houses, low density units, high density units, commerial, retail and other various commerial, various industrial, Offices etc etc etc.

Why would you think that USA housing market has any relavence to Australian markets.

 

[explod]

Given That the real estate markets differ widely between suburbs in certain parts of cities and states, coastal or country,... city or rural or regional centres there is thousands of real estate markets in Australia all performorming differently.

You then have sectors within each market such as houses, town houses, low density units, high density units, commerial, retail and other various commerial, various industrial, Offices etc etc etc.

Why would you think that USA housing market has any relavence to Australian markets.

The oversimplification , like blind sheep we allways do what the US of A does.

My gut says, the US market is falling apart because people have been living beyond their means on borrowed money against rising real estate but at a level beyond what they can repay against income. And from what I can see Aussies have been doing the same and so it will come to the same end here as well.

 

[CamKawa]

Given That the real estate markets differ widely between suburbs in certain parts of cities and states, coastal or country,... city or rural or regional centres there is thousands of real estate markets in Australia all performorming differently.

You then have sectors within each market such as houses, town houses, low density units, high density units, commerial, retail and other various commerial, various industrial, Offices etc etc etc.

I agree with you on that. That's why it's a tuff market to analyse, a lot of leg work has to done by buyers to work out how much is how much.

Why would you think that USA housing market has any relavence to Australian markets.

Yes we are a different market to the US. Our house prices are higher and we are in more debt. When the correction hits us here it may be worse.

 

[robots]

hello,

care to tell us where I can get a ninja loan in aus?

i know low docs still around to lvr say 70-80%, but we never had ninja loans in aus

thankyou
robots

 

[CamKawa]

Low doc loans with a no doc policies were available at RAMS right up until about the middle of 2007. They have peeled back a bit to loans that are half No Income No Asset (NINA) loans.
http://www.rams.com.au/default.asp?page=/home+loans/all+our+products/rams+100%+option

Found an article for you robots
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Art...=How to sell property in a buyers++39; market

 

[robots]

hello,

the ninja was for no income, no job or assets

we never had this stuff in aus,

its a great time to be be buying with what many have identified as a seasonal dip on the graph,

but we know many here arent interested in property at all except to dig the boots in

thankyou
robots

 

[CamKawa]

the ninja was for no income, no job or assets

we never had this stuff in aus,

We had "flexible" loans in Aus. Again, low doc loans with a no doc policies were available at RAMS right up until about the middle of 2007.

With RAMS low doc loans with a no doc policies no employment or repayment history was required.

its a great time to be be buying with what many have identified as a seasonal dip on the graph,

Could be a l o n g season

but we know many here aren’t interested in property at all except to dig the boots in

Some people maybe but I'm not, I'm a realist.

I thought that this thread here at ASF was negative on property until I had a wonder thorough the house price thread on a property forum, leaves us for dead.