Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep rising for years

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wayneL said:
It ain't happening here.
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I absolutely agree with what wayne is saying. The market ( stock and real estate) is stuffed big time. And people think that the colonies are immune lol
Everyone please listen to robots and keep throwing your money into australian realestate. I two years time ex-pats will come home to a smorgesboard:p:
 
Lioness is right...after I lost all that money on the tech wreck...admittedly houses were cheaper...but I started buying in Jun 2000...finished my spree in Aug 2002...could have bought more...but was too busy with what I had...a lot of people were doing the same thing...buying multiple properties....the media did not notice...too busy screaming about the tech wreck...it was not until Dec 03 and into Jun 04...that the rest of them woke up and ran into property...so I sold half at triple the prices paid....the market went back down and stagnated for nearly 3 years before going back up Dec 07

contrary to what some believe....others think the US and rest of the world follows Aus on property...we do not follow them....we have been the leaders in home ownership...so they look to see what we do

here are charts for world wide prices
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-estate-house-prices/A
 
kincella said:
Lioness is right...after I lost all that money on the tech wreck...admittedly houses were cheaper...but I started buying in Jun 2000...finished my spree in Aug 2002...could have bought more...but was too busy with what I had...a lot of people were doing the same thing...buying multiple properties....the media did not notice...too busy screaming about the tech wreck...it was not until Dec 03 and into Jun 04...that the rest of them woke up and ran into property...so I sold half at triple the prices paid....the market went back down and stagnated for nearly 3 years before going back up Dec 07

contrary to what some believe....others think the US and rest of the world follows Aus on property...we do not follow them....we have been the leaders in home ownership...so they look to see what we do

here are charts for world wide prices
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-estate-house-prices/A
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lol some nice roses here today in sunny melbourne, pity few can smell them
 
Nobody "follows" anybody in housing markets, economies follow global events.. housing can be attached to that.

The doesn't put such a good picture on the "safe" Victoria story, despite the regular denial "it's only a resource problem in QLD and WA"...

http://www.theage.com.au/national/economists-defy-spring-street-recession-is-here-20090117-7jm4.html

National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster said the State Government's predictions for the economy were far too upbeat, calling it "stupid" for standing by its promise to deliver a surplus equivalent to at least 1 per cent of the state economy.

"In a recession, that's stupid and I'm willing to say that's stupid," Mr Oster said.

"We have unemployment going to 6 per cent at the end of this year and 7 per cent by the end of next.

"To be brutally honest, my question when I look at my (unemployment) forecast is, 'Am I too low?', because the data that's been coming out over the past couple of months from the US, Europe and Japan is just terrible."
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Anybody who also "loaded up" into the shock market in 2001/02 (but instead were too scared and went into property) would have also made double digit returns for many years also. In fact it was the exactly the same economic vehicle/conditions that drove the housing market to where it was... strange that.
 
lioness said:
Wayne, I am open to the belief of some fall, but nowhere near 45% as per the so called 'blue chips' of the stockmarket.

Further to this, there will be a fundamental shift away from shares for 5 years as too many have been burnt by so called 'blue-chips' never lose stocks like the banks. Expect another flight to property for perceived safety.

I repeat perceived safety.
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BTW, Dubai has apparently fallen 40-50% in less than 12 months.

http://www.homesoverseas.co.uk/news/Dubai_property_prices_halved/7186-1002
 
Hi,
I am from Adelaide but am looking to invest in melbourne market to support my daughter who will be moving there in the future. Thought I should look at doing something now if market is coming off the boil. And that is my problem. I don't want to get in if market is cooling.
There is a lot of talk about markets coming off 10-20%. Has that already happening in Melbourne? Adelaide market is steadfast - nay rising slowly - hasn't missed a beat in 7 years.
Anyhow, I was looking at getting a unit around Huntingdale, Oakleigh, Ashwood, Chadstone, Murrumbeena etc. Any recommendations as to which is a better area in that neck of the woods. Access to rail transport is a big consideration for me so proximity to a rail station is a priority.

Any comments most appreciated.
 
ericskeric said:
Hi,
I am from Adelaide but am looking to invest in melbourne market to support my daughter who will be moving there in the future. Thought I should look at doing something now if market is coming off the boil. And that is my problem. I don't want to get in if market is cooling.
There is a lot of talk about markets coming off 10-20%. Has that already happening in Melbourne? Adelaide market is steadfast - nay rising slowly - hasn't missed a beat in 7 years.
Anyhow, I was looking at getting a unit around Huntingdale, Oakleigh, Ashwood, Chadstone, Murrumbeena etc. Any recommendations as to which is a better area in that neck of the woods. Access to rail transport is a big consideration for me so proximity to a rail station is a priority.

Any comments most appreciated.
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Huntingdale would be my pick, will allways be a good investment there, but would wait till July before making a move, I think economics are going to hit real estate harder than in generations in the next three or four months.
 
Wayne...interesting......speculators were buying off the plans then flipping them within days....your link is about those investors

and then there is the colliers report...talking about home owners, risen 56% for the year dropped 8% for the quarter....they have only had freehold property rights since 2002....and very unreliable data to track sales and records....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28633645/

then this headline..property slumps across 100 suburbs....but if you read the article..prices up 72% past 4 years,,,some suburbs up 36% in one year....and the losing suburbs lost 10-15%..... the media choose the worst part of the article for its headline grabbing BAD news......I know plenty of suburbs that I would not touch ....and you could find 2 houses in one street...one price up the other down..

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=118791

the media wants house prices to come down...so they are only going to report as if prices were sliding.....just disregard any facts relative to the opposite, or the truth

just stating houses in dubai falling 50% is not the whole story,,,,that story is about speculators...and off the plan props......similar type of investor who plays the stockmarket......or high risk ,high reward games......
different to average property investor who holds for 10 years and earns rental income....and we have data going back 100 years...4 major groups monitor the data....
sorry if I appear picky....just bringing balance to the argument
 
explod said:
Huntingdale would be my pick, will allways be a good investment there, but would wait till July before making a move, I think economics are going to hit real estate harder than in generations in the next three or four months.
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Thanks for the comment explod. I am personally bearish on real estate but pospects for very low interest rtaes and limited building starts are compelling reason to buy. I suppose we need to wait and see if this global economic crisis is going to impact us here. If we have job losses ten real estate market will falter -me thinks.
The reasonn I am especially cautious is that I have noticed Melbourne prices are so much higher than Adelaide - by about $100K from what i can see for comparable properties but twice the distance out from the CBD
 
you should not be buying or even contemplating buying if you are bearish on property.....
you need the right attitude and be comfortable in what you do...especially the housing market.....its a min 10 year investment to ride the dips and waves

would be easier and cheaper for your daughter to share...
 
Having the right attitude has nothing to do with house prices. House prices will/may dip and this will be, I am sure, completely independent on my attitude. Attitude towards housing as an investment is different. If you buy a property, I agree, the view must be long term because of the entry/exit fees as they currently stand.
Also, I might be bearish now but that is not to say my sentiment will not change. As indicated, lowering of interest rates are compelling reasons to buy. But as we have seen low interest rates are not a permanent given.
Personally, the biggest motivation to buy any real estate is the anticipation of high inflation. Inflation erodes the value of a dollar and it is better to invest in something real and tangible. If govts start to print money inflation will rise and this is what govts will most likely do in our current economic environment.
My request for assistance was two fold - 1. to get an idea of the better suburbs of those that i mentioned and 2. to get some feed back on whether the Melbourne market was in decline, static or rising. If you can help with these two questions that would be much appreciated.
(Ps . My daughter's circumstances are a little more complicated than what i ahve revealed)
 
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