House prices to keep rising for years

[robots]

hello,

well st kilda up 14.8% fo the Sept08 Quarter so no decline there eric, plenty of others done well also

who knows where it goes brother,

what a fine day

thankyou
robots

 

[MrBurns]

I'm thinking of buying an investment unit at Port Douglas, will return income and I can sneak a few weeks in per year for myself.

I think it's a little early as there will be stacks coming onto the market when it really hits the fan but does anyone have any idea of the market up there ?

and I'm a little worried about the effect of rising sea levels, or more to the point the PERECEPTION of rising sea levels up there, I wouldnt want to be stuck with it after 10 years because a bunch of greenies have convinced everyone it will be under water in the future.

I had a look at the property forum but I was practically the only one there so I though I'd post this here.

Any help appreciated.

This answers my question, it will only get worse, how much is your propertry worth if you can't insure it ?

North Queensland dumped by insurance provider

CHRIS QUAGLIATA

September 27th, 2008

A NATIONAL home insurer is refusing to cover North Queensland homeowners because of the threat of `severe weather events' such as cyclone, flood or fire. Allianz Insurance declined the renewal of some customers' insurance to manage `geographic concentrations of risk' from cyclone, storm and flood damage.

 

[robots]

hello,

any other questions eric fire away, we all hear to help fellow man travel through time with ease

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

Wayne...interesting......speculators were buying off the plans then flipping them within days....your link is about those investors

and then there is the colliers report...talking about home owners, risen 56% for the year dropped 8% for the quarter....they have only had freehold property rights since 2002....and very unreliable data to track sales and records....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28633645/

then this headline..property slumps across 100 suburbs....but if you read the article..prices up 72% past 4 years,,,some suburbs up 36% in one year....and the losing suburbs lost 10-15%..... the media choose the worst part of the article for its headline grabbing BAD news......I know plenty of suburbs that I would not touch ....and you could find 2 houses in one street...one price up the other down..

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=118791

the media wants house prices to come down...so they are only going to report as if prices were sliding.....just disregard any facts relative to the opposite, or the truth

just stating houses in dubai falling 50% is not the whole story,,,,that story is about speculators...and off the plan props......similar type of investor who plays the stockmarket......or high risk ,high reward games......
different to average property investor who holds for 10 years and earns rental income....and we have data going back 100 years...4 major groups monitor the data....
sorry if I appear picky....just bringing balance to the argument

And you don't see some parallels with the Oz market? However much I agree with your points about Dubai, the fact remains that it is a blue chip market that has fallen by the magic figure mentioned by lioness.

Therefore the potential for any market inflated by the credit bubble to fall by half remains and it cannot be argued that the Oz market is not at bubble levels.

This recession still in the first stanza... particularly for Oz which has been shielded by the China/Olympics/commodity boom. Ozzies should never forget that this influence on the economy is only just starting post Olympics... only four months ago. It could be argued that Oz is lagging the rest of the angloshere by up to a year as a result.

I don't agree that the media wants prices down, at least not in the UK. Most journo's have been big into the BTL thing and have substantial portfolios. They are panicking and doing all they can to covertly (and sometime explicitly) ramp property.

There are continuously articles promulgating the emergence of a market bottom and have done so for at least 9 months.

Also in the interest of balance, agents are reporting an uptick in activity in the last couple weeks, so we'll see what happens from here.

 

[knocker]

This answers my question, it will only get worse, how much is your propertry worth if you can't insure it ?

Hi Mr Burns. If you are buying a unit, there should be no problems about insurance. Your body corporate will cover all of this with there insurance i.e roof walls etc. All you have to do is worry about your contents if you have any. But as I have pointed out already, places like port douglas will suffer big time in the event of a combined king tide and a cyclone or worse a tsunami. cheers

 

[Glen48]

Don't buy some thing that has been built in the last 5-10 yrs. Know of a unit in the middle of a new high rise with a leaky ceiling.

 

[MrBurns]

Hi Mr Burns. If you are buying a unit, there should be no problems about insurance. Your body corporate will cover all of this with there insurance i.e roof walls etc. All you have to do is worry about your contents if you have any. But as I have pointed out already, places like port douglas will suffer big time in the event of a combined king tide and a cyclone or worse a tsunami. cheers

It may get to the stage where the body corporate cant get insurance or will have to pay a whopping premium, and this will get worse as time goes on.
Try to sell it in 10 years and see how you go, unless global warming has been proven to be like the Y2K bug, a beat up.

 

[SBH]

Property bulls its pretty clear your gambling will sink our entire economy just like it has in america.... maybe you should stay clear of reading the australian today if you want to keep your head in the sand

- Oz economy 'buggered'. Handouts may be a thing of the past very soon. We will be in a big deficit, other countries may want more for there buck if they lend us money, our interest rates would need to be cranked even as our property is going down. Thats very bad.

-Property in freefall. Prices decimated. (Their words about WA)

-NSW economy particular buggered. Declining at US style rate

-Overseas student numbers to decline (I dont believe it but its another one for the list!)

 

[wayneL]

Property bulls its pretty clear your gambling will sink our entire economy just like it has in america.... maybe you should stay clear of reading the australian today if you want to keep your head in the sand

- Oz economy 'buggered'. Handouts may be a thing of the past very soon. We will be in a big deficit, other countries may want more for there buck if they lend us money, our interest rates would need to be cranked even as our property is going down. Thats very bad.

-Property in freefall. Prices decimated. (Their words about WA)

-NSW economy particular buggered. Declining at US style rate

-Overseas student numbers to decline (I dont believe it but its another one for the list!)

Thanks for the heads up.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24929833-2702,00.html

THE West Australian property market is being decimated following the evaporation of the resources boom, with values of $1 million-plus properties plummeting 20 per cent and the equivalent of more than two years' supply of homes flooding real estate agencies.

Thats almost half way to lioness's 45% figure in less than a year.

... with years to go in this recession.

 

[Beej]

Thanks for the heads up.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24929833-2702,00.html


Thats almost half way to lioness's 45% figure in less than a year.

... with years to go in this recession.

Fair enough - I actually just read that article and the Perth market certainly sounds pretty grim. Also you neglected to quote this part:

In Perth, house prices fell 4per cent in the December quarter, taking the yearly decline to 11 per cent.

The median price of a Perth house was $418,000, down from $473,000 at the peak of the West Australian housing boom in December 2007.

.....although no source for those figures are quoted. EDIT: Also note that the quarterly median can be skewed downwards if more cheaper and less expensive houses than "normal" are selling, as seems to be the case from that article.

However, I (and many other so called bulls) have always said that the WA/Perth, and to a lesser extent the SEQ markets, have clearly been over-heated by the mining economy/boom. You only have to consider that the Perth median house price passed the Sydney one for a while there in early 2007 to see things were getting way out of hand!

Still waiting for some December median house price data for Melbourne/Vic and Sydney/NSW (which combined would represent over half the entire AU housing market), but I am still expecting these area's to have remained flat in the 4th quarter of 08. My view is based on my own experiences in the market during that period, plus the housing finance data for that quarter that we have already seen released. Will shall know very soon if I am right or wrong!

Beej

 

[arco]

Yet another Hervey Bay real estate agency - Caldwell Banker - closed it’s doors this week due to poor sales and no real sign of improvement on the horizon.

............................. the real estate market in Hervey Bay is in such a bad way that some agents haven’t sold a house in six months.

 

[robots]

hello,

aussie's BTL issue was around 03-04 and still plagues some people, man we way ahead of UK

just to follow up on Sinner's great reporting from the interest rate thread, rents up 3% in December making 14% for the year, man paradise

and with IR's expected to hit 2-3% in the future this is awesome brothers, the online account crew are going to have to seriously look elsewhere, money renters large again

great couple of weeks coming up with the OzOpen kicking off today

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

aussie's BTL issue was around 03-04 and still plagues some people, man we way ahead of UK

just to follow up on Sinner's great reporting from the interest rate thread, rents up 3% in December making 14% for the year, man paradise

and with IR's expected to hit 2-3% in the future this is awesome brothers, the online account crew are going to have to seriously look elsewhere, money renters large again

great couple of weeks coming up with the OzOpen kicking off today

thankyou
robots

Listen you property bulls. The UK Labour party is in dire straits and need some real proper spinmeisters to fool the UK public that all is fine and dandy. Your skills are needed over here. :

 

[numbercruncher]

Just another day in the GEC .....


Throw another Kangaroo on the Barbi mate

 

[CoffeeKing]

Just another day in the GEC .....


Throw another Kangaroo on the Barbi mate

What happed to the Prawns, eh - are they going up in price??? LOL

 

[Beej]

Listen you property bulls. The UK Labour party is in dire straits and need some real proper spinmeisters to fool the UK public that all is fine and dandy. Your skills are needed over here. :

No thanks - to be perfectly honest I don't give a rats whats going on back in the land-of-the-low-grey-cloud-with-frequent-drizzle re property values! Before this new fangled internet thing exactly 100% of everyone else in Australia never gave a rats either..... Even now the only people who seem to care are frequenters of internet forums talking about property prices, and half of them don't even live here in Australia anymore!

When you have bought a 4 bedroom/3 bath house in Notting Hill or Kensington for less than AU$1M then I might become interested. In fact, even less than AU$1.5M!

Beej

 

[kincella]

ok so even Eddie Macguire with all his money cannot buy the house he wants in Portsea.....so stuck with renting for $100,000 a year....The owner has owned the property for over 40 years.....
Moral to the story is....regardless of what the press say about house prices dropping...will drop, should drop, have to drop...whichever way you say it....means nothing at the end of the day....first of all you need a seller....and some houses will never be for sale....handed down through the generations...
Aahh.... Eddy from Broadmeadows, now Toorak, and trying to break into Portsea....
Eddy will be looking for a bargain from a stressed seller, but he might also suffer that other disease..named....'waiting for the price to come down'

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24935305-2862,00.html

 

[wayneL]

No thanks - to be perfectly honest I don't give a rats whats going on back in the land-of-the-low-grey-cloud-with-frequent-drizzle re property values! Before this new fangled internet thing exactly 100% of everyone else in Australia never gave a rats either..... Even now the only people who seem to care are frequenters of internet forums talking about property prices, and half of them don't even live here in Australia anymore!

When you have bought a 4 bedroom/3 bath house in Notting Hill or Kensington for less than AU$1M then I might become interested. In fact, even less than AU$1.5M!

Beej

So you don't see the connection between the western economies; you don't see how other economies can be predictive of your own?

It's your money dude.

 

[lioness]

Take a look at this property, right near where I live.

Obviously prices are not falling inner city. A hefty price really for what you get. No outdoor space besides a deck.

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007498671&s_rid=buy:HaveYouConsidered

Doesn't look like property is falling to me.

Robots, this area outperforms your St Kilda, go and check annual growth.

 

[Beej]

So you don't see the connection between the western economies; you don't see how other economies can be predictive of your own?

It's your money dude.

I think you are massively over-rating the connection with respect to the residential property market.... What does the average Aussie care about what a house costs in London or Manchester? There are many occasions when different countries R/E markets can and have moved in completely different directions/trends. The UK is one of the best examples. We can see that happening right now with the US and the UK in the doldrums for reasons of their own making. We feel the impact economically, but also in different ways and currently after 18 months of falls in the US/UK we are seeing nothing like that trend over here in residential property prices.

We have nothing like their credit rationing, we don't have anything like their foreclosure rates, or sub-prime lending stupidity, our banks are not collapsing, recessionary forces are gathering later due to the damping effect we enjoyed from the resources boom, which gives a good chance of a shorter time between decline and recovery, as any economic recovery will likely occur in-line with the other western economies, our exchange rate falling adds more damping to the system, and in an international context actually lowers the cost of our real estate anyway, etc etc. Particular regions here have specific issues (eg Perth, SEQ), but generally across the rest of the country the property market is OK - not flooded with property for sale or loads of forced sales and so on, FHB numbers increasing, which will feed through the chain over the next 6-12 months as it always does.

Economies are certainly linked yes by trade and the international finance system etc etc,no denying that! But large aspects of national economies can and do also march to their own tune despite the broader context, and this is seen historically repeatedly time and time again. Dogged assertions that house price falls in say the UK or the US automatically mean house prices will fall across the board in AU are dramatic, and can try to garner credibility through the air of "offshore expats no better than you yokles" and all that, but at the end of the day such assertions are overly simplistic and by no means gospel.

Beej