House prices to keep rising for years

[numbercruncher]

OK, "selling like hot cakes" may not be the right term,

Nooooooo Bingo !!

 

[robots]

hello,

look out brothers:

http://www.reiv.com.au/news/Vacancy-rate-update

hope those specuvestors keep hanging in the cave, awesome news

with construction diving as well, fantastic

well done

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

property investor finance was down 6%, and some posters were applauding the numbers....did they forget, less investors equals less rental properties for the renters.....I guess they can take up the slack left by the renters who became FHB...was it close to 24% for Nov ???

I believe Dec was showing more positive traits...but probably petered out mid month, due to the festivities season........

overall positive numbers out in the news today....but its not enough to ward off the 1% rate cut due in Feb,,,imo

the uni students are all coming back looking for props to rent for another year...competition for rent....

we all need renters...to fill our props...so dont knock them ...treat them with care

 

[Beej]

From SMH:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/time-to-buy--if-job-is-safe-20090114-7gz5.html

YOU can almost hear the sound of cheap champagne corks popping. A generation of would-be first-home buyers are getting ready to escape the clutches of the rental market.

First-home buyers have reappeared in their highest numbers since the boom of the early 2000s pushed them to the sideline to watch house prices and interest rates rise.

The rapidly deteriorating economic outlook is shifting the long-running debate about "rent versus buy" in favour of "buy".

.....

The rental market is set to remain an uncomfortable place to be. A year or two of double-digit rental increases have already stretched some renters to their limit. Ominously, yesterday's home loan figures show investors are taking out fewer loans, meaning the supply of investment properties for renters to live in is going to shrink.

And from a similar article: http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,24911998-5013951,00.html

NSW enjoyed a strong recovery in home loans during November, with the 5.8 per cent rise in housing finance for owner-occupiers reversing nine consecutive months of decline.

So looks like NSW/Sydney is going to take the lead in any bottoming/recovery in the housing market. This aligns with my own experience in and observation of the Sydney over the past few months - increased FHB activity and buyers (even some investors) around, but still cautious. Pretty impressive considering the state of the NSW economy.... Imagine what might happen when the economy (eventually) picks up again?

Beej

 

[MrBurns]

I'm thinking of buying an investment unit at Port Douglas, will return income and I can sneak a few weeks in per year for myself.

I think it's a little early as there will be stacks coming onto the market when it really hits the fan but does anyone have any idea of the market up there ?

and I'm a little worried about the effect of rising sea levels, or more to the point the PERECEPTION of rising sea levels up there, I wouldnt want to be stuck with it after 10 years because a bunch of greenies have convinced everyone it will be under water in the future.

I had a look at the property forum but I was practically the only one there so I though I'd post this here.

Any help appreciated.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I'm thinking of buying an investment unit at Port Douglas, will return income and I can sneak a few weeks in per year for myself.

I think it's a little early as there will be stacks coming onto the market when it really hits the fan but does anyone have any idea of the market up there ?

and I'm a little worried about the effect of rising sea levels, or more to the point the PERECEPTION of rising sea levels up there, I wouldnt want to be stuck with it after 10 years because a bunch of greenies have convinced everyone it will be under water in the future.

I had a look at the property forum but I was practically the only one there so I though I'd post this here.

Any help appreciated.

Ive been up that way a few times Mr.Burns. It is stunningly beautiful, like North-West Tassie but with the warm sun.

Dont know much about sea-levels, cant say not an expert in that science.

Had an Uncle go up that way. He was dropped off an a few islands by the RAN during WW2 to measure sea levels. "Paradise untouched" were his words.

There are greenies up there, most of them are pretty casual people from memory. Plenty of them live a life in the forest, self-made accomodation a lot of the time.

Definitely a beautiful place!

 

[trading_rookie]

I'm thinking of buying an investment unit at Port Douglas, will return income and I can sneak a few weeks in per year for myself.

I think it's a little early as there will be stacks coming onto the market when it really hits the fan but does anyone have any idea of the market up there ?

I did read a snippet in the AFR a week or so ago that anything north or Noosa was very quiet during this holiday season...could be a sign of things to come.

Sneaking a few weeks...it's not with Break-Fre is it?

As for king tides, spring tides and storm surges...from the 7:30 report

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/730report/av/podcast/20090112-730kingtides_video4.wmv

 

[robots]

hello,

just rent some joint for the time you want to go there man,

no hassle,

any other news today, cant seem to get the share market news for today as the ASX site doesnt appear on my computer, has it crashed?

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

sister has lived there, now in cairns...over 30 years, would not have it anywhere else....only ever freaked out once...last year ?? driving to work, heard report tsunami due in an hour...detoured and drove up into the hills, sat there for 4 hours, came back and got drunk.........had given up the grog a few years ago....went to work next day, rather embarrassed...kept her job.........
you should go up now, check it out, have a look around

 

[MrBurns]

Thanks everyone, I've just contacted the Council and they are going to get back to me, most helpful Council employee I've ever spoken to.

Not worried about the odd cyclone just long term sea level projections.

"I know you'd like us to sell your unit for you Mr Burns but we're having a bit of trouble with organizing inspections as we've lost the scuba gear"

 

[ROE]

if you are smart you want property not to fall now but say in 2-3 years so up until then keep the price driven up ...

FOH great anything to keep the price the way it is good news for me....keep it up bring out all the positive news....

 

[Beej]

Thanks everyone, I've just contacted the Council and they are going to get back to me, most helpful Council employee I've ever spoken to.

Not worried about the odd cyclone just long term sea level projections.

"I know you'd like us to sell your unit for you Mr Burns but we're having a bit of trouble with organizing inspections as we've lost the scuba gear"

Mr Burns - I think there is a thing on Google maps/earth where you can bring up an area, say Port Douglas, and get it to show you what the coast would look like if sea levels were say 1 metre, or 5 metres or whatever higher. Don't have a link handy but a quick search should find that for you. I have used it before so I know it is there somewhere!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[MrBurns]

Mr Burns - I think there is a thing on Google maps/earth where you can bring up an area, say Port Douglas, and get it to show you what the coast would look like if sea levels were say 1 metre, or 5 metres or whatever higher. Don't have a link handy but a quick search should find that for you. I have used it before so I know it is there somewhere!

Cheers,

Beej

Thanks Beej and everyone else who chipped in, the info on the maps is a bit general, these units are very close to the beach, 2 minutes walk, so I'm a little concerned, I'll wait for the Council then flip a coin I guess.

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

just rent some joint for the time you want to go there man,

no hassle,

thankyou
robots

agrees with robots burnsy........ lots of hidden body corporate fees , fees for this and that AND no control over ACTUAL investment as such . careful m8 ...... and again i reiterate be careful

its in the harder times the white shoe brigade make there investment ideas sound so much better


addition

its not just the fees mate , often in these unit/holiday home deals there is often a body corporate made up of so called "directors" that do all the desicion making for the complex , if u aint on that board mate ..lookout ........... descions can be made without your approval that can drastically change the whole deal , ie rental periods , type of clients .blagh blah blah ....hopefully you get my drift and walk into it with 3 eyes open

not all white picket fences out there dude

 

[MrBurns]

agrees with robots burnsy........ lots of hidden body corporate fees , fees for this and that AND no control over ACTUAL investment as such . careful m8 ...... and again i reiterate be careful

its in the harder times the white shoe brigade make there investment ideas sound so much better

Thanks nun I was a real estate agent for over 20 years (Melbourne) so I've seen it all and Noosa, Gold Coast and Port Douglas Qld are boom and bust towns from way back.

I look at the return after fees, you can then use the place for a few weeks a year just book with the management team and pay their commission only, I believe you can also opt out of the management agreement in many of them if you ever want to live there.

I want to get some money OUT of the bank before something goes wrong there.

 

[SBH]

From SMH:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/time-to-buy--if-job-is-safe-20090114-7gz5.html



And from a similar article: http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,24911998-5013951,00.html



So looks like NSW/Sydney is going to take the lead in any bottoming/recovery in the housing market. This aligns with my own experience in and observation of the Sydney over the past few months - increased FHB activity and buyers (even some investors) around, but still cautious. Pretty impressive considering the state of the NSW economy.... Imagine what might happen when the economy (eventually) picks up again?

Beej

Vacancy rate here is increasing. Go to sqmresearch.com. Jobs are going left right and centre! Very few people have job security for the long term and only idiot FHBs are jumping in now, akin to bogans breeding for the baby bonus. I cannot understand how a property speculator could risk NOT selling at the moment. You could lose everything and have almost no chance of gain in the next few years

To think australian property prices will survive on a permanantly high plateau through a global recession (recession being the best case scenario) is crazy.

 

[Beej]

To think australian property prices will survive on a permanantly high plateau through a global recession (recession being the best case scenario) is crazy.

Such certainty in your statements! And yet property prices have held up extremely well through every recessionary period since WWII without any problem at all? Did people who held their property through 1974, 1981, 1991 loose it all???

Beej

 

[kincella]

Beej...the stats are against SBH to begin with....over 70% of the population are homeowners....and another 20% are also property investors....thats a very compelling 90% prefer property...whether its just a roof over the heads, lifestyle , investment or all of the above....

there are traps for players out there and maybe SBH just got caught... SQM research....is looking for cheap PR....bit like the Keen thing...outlandish claims...claims rental vacancy is not as low...bloke who runs it, used to be with APM...now on his own ??? only an email and mobile...
he explains his metholodgy...he estimates figures...etc etc...leaves a lot of room for error....

I cannot be bothered repeating the SBH post here.....assume he must be too young to understand the property game.....but calling people stupid is the easiest way to make enemies...get people offside...
and the history charts do not show anything like he suggests.....hint look back in history to show you where it will likely go into the future....

ps...why don't people on this 'house ' forum ... go over to the aussiepropertyforum ....site ??? I know its new...but set out nicely...state by state even....and just chat over there ????.....instead of here with only two topics....housing going up...or down....and having to sift through and find it amongst everything else ????? I have been trying to promote it to friends, and good quality posters on property....and have been posting over there to try to encourage others....
anyone care to give a reason why you are not over there ???
cheers

 

[numbercruncher]

Beej...the stats are against SBH to begin with....over 70% of the population are homeowners....and another 20% are also property investors....thats a very compelling 90% prefer property...

Does that leave 10% to rent that 20%





/yawn

 

[kincella]

30% of the population are renters.....govt provides about 10% of rental accommodation...leaving 20% private investors.....
one doubts too many renters would also be property investors