Fair enough if it has stopped, but it won't be the last offer or the lowest, they will come in he next 6 months.
House prices to keep rising for years
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Fair enough if it has stopped, but it won't be the last offer or the lowest, they will come in he next 6 months.
numbercruncher
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Dont we have a nth beaches permabull in this thread ?
Heres some confirmation that the market is smokin' .....
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydney-property-predictions-for-2009/2009/01/03/1230681809451.html
Heres some confirmation that the market is smokin' .....
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydney-property-predictions-for-2009/2009/01/03/1230681809451.html
regardless...I like this quote from Jack Miller......The best way to become a millionaire, is to borrow a million dollars and have your tenants/renters pay it off....
what happened to the old system for investment...you split your investments into 3 asset classes, a third into each...cash, shares and realestate.....unlikely all 3 will rise or fall at the same time.....
currently shares have fallen, cash rates going down, and realestate.....holding its own.....or showing growth in some areas.....
what happened to the old system for investment...you split your investments into 3 asset classes, a third into each...cash, shares and realestate.....unlikely all 3 will rise or fall at the same time.....
currently shares have fallen, cash rates going down, and realestate.....holding its own.....or showing growth in some areas.....
here are some charts covering 30 countries world wide....quarter by quarter coverage.....note some countries have growth, and others minimal falls..
seems like the US follows AUS, not vice versa....so if you are watching the US and expecting AUS to follow...its just not happening
.....apart from Slovakia, and the Ukraine...over 20%.drops..or the case/schiller report US 16.55, there is no 30-40% drops.....
the case schiller report is out of whack with other US reports...I wonder why ? is it flawed !
click on the alpha list to find graphs for each country....
this is a summary
Aus peaked in 2003 at 15, bottomed 2005 at 0, rose up to 10 in 06/07...back to 0 in 2008
UK peaked 2003 at 20, bottomed 2005 at 0, now -15 in 08
US peaked 2005 at 9, bottomed / been falling ever since to -9 (Office of Federal Housing report)*****
****note how the US did not peak until 2005, the opposite of AUS...we bottomed 2005, AUS peaked 2003, the US bottomed that year......
I guess this is where the theory comes from...US follows AUS in housing...not vice versa
Ukraine to US charts
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-estate-house-prices/U
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/house-prices-indices/House-price-changes-year-to-end-Q3-2008
seems like the US follows AUS, not vice versa....so if you are watching the US and expecting AUS to follow...its just not happening
.....apart from Slovakia, and the Ukraine...over 20%.drops..or the case/schiller report US 16.55, there is no 30-40% drops.....
the case schiller report is out of whack with other US reports...I wonder why ? is it flawed !
click on the alpha list to find graphs for each country....
this is a summary
Aus peaked in 2003 at 15, bottomed 2005 at 0, rose up to 10 in 06/07...back to 0 in 2008
UK peaked 2003 at 20, bottomed 2005 at 0, now -15 in 08
US peaked 2005 at 9, bottomed / been falling ever since to -9 (Office of Federal Housing report)*****
****note how the US did not peak until 2005, the opposite of AUS...we bottomed 2005, AUS peaked 2003, the US bottomed that year......
I guess this is where the theory comes from...US follows AUS in housing...not vice versa
Ukraine to US charts
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-estate-house-prices/U
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/house-prices-indices/House-price-changes-year-to-end-Q3-2008
As always stated in the disclaimers around such data you have to be careful - these are VERY expensive suburbs with houses that you would not believe in many cases. I can tell you for certain that in the case of Mosman the MEDIAN is down because the top end property ($2.5M+) is just not selling much, but most sub $2M property is being snapped up like hot cakes - thus the median is lower due to the lower end property for that area selling while the higher end is not.
So really you can't use the prestige suburbs like Mosman, Palm Beach etc as a barometer of the whole market - plus the median stats can be easily skewed due to what I described above anyway. In fact if you look at lower priced and mid range Sydney suburbs which represent the MAJORITY of Sydney property turn-over, their prices are holding up extremely well and in many cases grew last year.
Of course this means there may well be opportunities to snap up a really expensive house at a big discount if the seller say is a Babcock and Brown exec with a huge margin loan to repay that MUST sell, and you have a lazy 3 or 4 mill lying around. But go out and actually try and do this, those deals are actually few and far between, and still stratospheric prices for the ordinary folks, but they certainly make good headlines!
EDIT: PS, I think that article might have quoted Bondi median price stats as Mosman in error as well!
Cheers,
Beej
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Link ... link ... link link link link ????
http://www.domain.com.au/public/SalesHistory.aspx?mode=research&postcode=2088&suburb=Mosman
This is a good start. As you can see not a lot of turnover in the top end property in this market. There are other sales of property in Mosman I am aware of (from looking at them) not in that list as well. The free website stuff is a bit hit and miss - if you really want to know purchase a full property sales report for the area! Or get out there and see for yourself.
You have to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together Mr NC! I guess it's hard to know what's actually going on over here in AUs most dynamic city and biggest residential property market with minimal effort and a computer on the other side of the country......
Beej
I live Mosman an definitely do not agree that sub 2.5M places are "being snapped up like hot cakes".
Off the top of my head i could think of at least 20 places in that category that i walk past regularly and take note of that have been on the market for over 6 months, some of them for the past year. I can also think of 3 new developments where they are still trying to sell apartments 6 months-1 year after completion.
I have also noticed that the average price for an apartment when one is sold these days is around 100,000 cheaper than it was 12 months ago. I have no figures to back that up its just an observation from looking at the sales prices each week.
I don't disagree with you beej that figures are skewed by more sales at the lower end of the market, but i do disagree that the lower end of the market is selling easily.
Off the top of my head i could think of at least 20 places in that category that i walk past regularly and take note of that have been on the market for over 6 months, some of them for the past year. I can also think of 3 new developments where they are still trying to sell apartments 6 months-1 year after completion.
I have also noticed that the average price for an apartment when one is sold these days is around 100,000 cheaper than it was 12 months ago. I have no figures to back that up its just an observation from looking at the sales prices each week.
I don't disagree with you beej that figures are skewed by more sales at the lower end of the market, but i do disagree that the lower end of the market is selling easily.
OK, "selling like hot cakes" may not be the right term, but there are certainly properties in that price range selling at some volume, although less sales than a year ago no doubt. Although apartments do in fact seem to be selling at higher volume if you look at that link I posted.
Regardless, more lower end properties for those expensive suburbs are selling than normal and therefore the median stats are skewed downwards. That is a fact.
Cheers,
Beej
Regardless, more lower end properties for those expensive suburbs are selling than normal and therefore the median stats are skewed downwards. That is a fact.
Cheers,
Beej
Ask some in some of the worst effected areas how far under they presently are, and they'd probably disagree with you with "minimal falls". Where's our resident UK Bear WayneL ?
It's not the most detailed chart, however the UK chart shows approx £190k to £160k.. 15% fall. Not great if you had minimal equity.
Well you could also ask why the other report is flawed
The Case-Shiller is actually the S&P Case-Schiller Index. Now while Standard & Poors has copped a lot of flack for it's ratings, they do have a reputation to protect and a large research team on their side. Some of the largest financial firms in the world are tracking that data for any possible hint of recovery.Well well well - residential housing finance starts UP 1.4% in November:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/home-approvals-rise-20090114-7gl4.html
I also note from the ABS release of this data here: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument that the FHB % of these starts also INCREASED from 19.5% in Oct to 23.6% in November.
So you have both an increased absolute number AND proportion of FHBs coming into the housing market at the moment, in a market where the number of financed starts is bottoming and actually rising again. It is clear to me that this is going to set up a solid floor under the market and that predictions of further dramatic price falls are even more likely to prove wrong.
Cheers,
Beej
http://business.smh.com.au/business/home-approvals-rise-20090114-7gl4.html
I also note from the ABS release of this data here: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument that the FHB % of these starts also INCREASED from 19.5% in Oct to 23.6% in November.
So you have both an increased absolute number AND proportion of FHBs coming into the housing market at the moment, in a market where the number of financed starts is bottoming and actually rising again. It is clear to me that this is going to set up a solid floor under the market and that predictions of further dramatic price falls are even more likely to prove wrong.
Cheers,
Beej
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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And if the FHO were not getting Taxpayer's funds to help them get into debt what would the real figures be?
As it is not their money helping this Ponzi scheme they have nothing to loose and many will walk away when the recession proper starts soon.
The Feds drip feeding the economy might prolong the agony for a few more months they still think the 10.4 B was a boost over Xmas once food is taken out of the equation it was a dud.
As it is not their money helping this Ponzi scheme they have nothing to loose and many will walk away when the recession proper starts soon.
The Feds drip feeding the economy might prolong the agony for a few more months they still think the 10.4 B was a boost over Xmas once food is taken out of the equation it was a dud.
You talk as if you think everyone at some time in the past bought property without debt! The REAL figures are in fact the ones I posted links to. Your idea of the "real" figures are "imaginary" ones! The government is providing funds to FHB for good reason, and it is actually "their" (our - the peoples) money anyway, as they/us earned it, and paid it in taxes originally. So think of it as a targeted tax cut if that makes you feel better.......
PS: You could make the same silly arguments around sectors of the economy supported in part by the baby bonus, any welfare payments, the dole etc etc etc....
Re Ponzi schemes, saying the property market is a Ponzi scheme borders on the ridiculous. You can argue prices are inflated, or not, or expensive etc etc, but the value of property is tangible and real. People NEED somewhere to live. It HAS real value. It IS an ASSET. Property can generate real income/profit (from rent) or save you real expenditure by not having to pay rent. If property is a Ponzi scheme then so is the entire share market! The market for collectible things such as art, classic motor vehicles, fine wine, coins, stamps, even commodities like GOLD (which has no other use other than to make jewelery and/or be held until someone comes along who wants to buy it off you for more $$$ than you paid). If property IS a Ponzi scheme, then so is everything else, but at least it is one that has been running successfully for in the order of 10,000 years!!!
Beej
Finance figures are encouraging, although most of the growth seems to be in finance for new homes, not existing - which is chiefly due to the FHB grant. But not sure the FHB is capable of carrying the entire market for a long period.. there has to be a finite number of potential fhb's out there who have the capacity to jump into the market this year.
Here in an interesting one on newspaper ads, the amount of advertising on realestate has plummeted in December...
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Fairfax-$pd20090114-N9TEE?OpenDocument&src=sph
Here in an interesting one on newspaper ads, the amount of advertising on realestate has plummeted in December...
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Fairfax-$pd20090114-N9TEE?OpenDocument&src=sph
It's amazing what you can read into statistics if you really want to see it. The total number of dwellings is down -25% from a year ago and the value down -19%, obviously 2 consecutive monthly rises means we've put in a floor. Do you do palms or tea leaves as well?
A year ago it was absolute boom time. Clearly that is not the case now - the stats show that, yes. What I am, and always have been arguing here is that there IS NOT going to be a great house price crash as so many "hope". We are in for a period of relatively steady/flat prices, but with low opportunity due to low volume/turnover. The rise in FHB proportion and numbers as a trend has been going for a few months now. This is how floors are put under the housing market!
In this and the other thread people have been posting those exact same stats from a few months back and talking about/predicting an ever accelerating decline in housing finance starts and home sales. Remember there isn't supposed to be any credit available! Remember the banks are meant to have tightened standards! They predicted we were "falling off a cliff" just like the US and the UK - like graphs from those countries have been continually posted arguing that we would follow their same trend, but are 12-18 months behind them etc etc. The actual data more and more is countering these predictions.
If you look at the latest data now, even according to the ABS, it is clearly forming a bottom/flat trend at the moment - so it LOOKS LIKE we have not so much fallen off a cliff, as stumbled down a hill, and have started to re-find some footing.
That is not just a gilded interpretation of the statistics, it is the conclusion of the ABS and much of the media reporting the data today as well.
EDIT: And PS, I should mention this thread is close to it's 1 year anniversary!
Cheers,
Beej
Sorry beej, you don't speak for the abs. The abs does not draw conclusions, as they shouldn't, they just present the data. The seasonally adjusted data shows total starts rising for 2 consecutive months, you can call that a trend if you want, statisticians would tell you that it means very little given revisions and seasonal adjustments. In fact, the 'trend' data, which smooths out the irregular components of the seasonally adjusted series, shows that the total number of finance commitments has fallen for the last 12 months in a row, although the rate of decline in the last few months has slowed. You may be right that a floor is being put in, but the data does not support that conclusion.
Take a look a US housing data in the last few years, you can find several instances when sales and starts rose for 2 consecutive months, none of those points represented a bottom. Unfortunately you'll only know the bottom when it has passed.
Once again you need to be reminded that building straw men arguments does not bolster your case. Can you quote a post that forecast ever accelerating declines in housing finance starts and home sales? I don't seem to be able to find one.
hello,
do both Numbercruncher, hands are dirty and taking it easy
because kicking it at work is the easiest risk free way of making $ ever
its paradise, the people with $ are still getting into businesses, i work across all sectors of building except infrastructure, mostly business orientated building
ie. restaurants, cafes, office conversion
anything else is a bonus, the income will kick you off though
hope the day is tremendous for everybody
thankyou
robots
do both Numbercruncher, hands are dirty and taking it easy
because kicking it at work is the easiest risk free way of making $ ever
its paradise, the people with $ are still getting into businesses, i work across all sectors of building except infrastructure, mostly business orientated building
ie. restaurants, cafes, office conversion
anything else is a bonus, the income will kick you off though
hope the day is tremendous for everybody
thankyou
robots
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