House prices to keep rising for years

[Beej]

i was under the incorrect impression that capital gains laws were changed around then which helped stimulate the house as an investment vehicle boom.... where the hell did i get that from

anyway, capital gains tax was introduced in 86...
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/INTGUIDE/law/taxlaw.htm

Yes you are correct 1986 it was introduced. I think there may have been some retrospectivity back to 1984 related to property though?

Anyway the change you may be thinking of occurred in the in the late 90s or so under Howard to the situation now where you get a 50% discount in CGT payable if you hold an investment for 12 months or more? The thing with that change is it also removed the ability to index you cost base for CGT purposes by inflation, and in most cases you actually ended paying a bit more CGT believe it or not than under the old rules without the discount... (unless the capital gain is significantly higher than the aggregate inflation rate over the period the investment was held).

Negative gearing for property was also removed at one point in the mid/late 80s, but that proved to be a disaster (rents spiraled and there was a major actual housing crisis underway) and it was quickly re-introduced a year or 2 later. The government at the time forgot that the whole negative gearing thing was there to provide an incentive for private sector provision of what would otherwise have to be publically funded housing....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[kincella]

Juddy...cheap shot the best you can do is it...
I have been following the charts since oh I dont know...how about 1970 to begin with.....

or was you who stumbled across.... well anything

sounds like some of you might have spent too much time on the ...housepricecrash sites ????

 

[juddy]

Juddy...cheap shot the best you can do is it...

No, but when people tell outright lies...

You posted the chart on another shares site and went on about 'how you'd just discovered them' to back up a point.

 

[tech/a]

Here Numbers Educate yourself.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-recession/2008/02/11/

 

[kincella]

you got me mixed up with someone else

 

[kincella]

Juddy, for a start I dont tell lies...suggest you check your source again....I dont like being called a liar

 

[knocker]

Says he making condescending comments.

You wouldnt be a low calibre type person knocker would you?

No as low as a chimp holding a gun to his head lol

 

[numbercruncher]

Hello Tech,


Just pulling you up on your " extremist " scaremongering comment that three generations will be locked out .... That would make the owners of all the property very old, would it not ?

No need for an education from the old hat factory.

My Grandparents lived through the Great Depression yet owned a home, as did all their Children and 95pc of their grandchildren.

Thankyou...

Bonecruncher.

 

[chops_a_must]

Speaking of headlines, did anybody catch the West Australian front page this morning?

Prey tell?

even Buffett (who I think is more lucky and cautious than smart) suggests look backwards to find out where you are going in the future.....

Lol, yeah, and it wouldn't be pretty for property.

 

[profit off it]

Oh and Human Nature tends to be a poor indicator for argument/opportunity.

Hey! Don't get stuck into Human Nature! What did they do?

 

[robots]

hello,

how's this legend:

http://www.theage.com.au/national/c...off-their-land-says-doctor-20090102-794u.html

not bad effort just for putting the key in the door, a humble home

council valuation gone from 1.2 to 6mil, wouldnt care too much for deflation, stagflation or inflation would they, being council its probably a bit undervalued as well,

probably at age where he will sell, friend of mine had same situation as an original land holder of a huge estate in Melbourne (5yrs old and still going)

much younger though, so went in with JV partner (delfin, ULC etc) and gets a great royalty of every new block sold

the money grab just got too much

thankyou
robots

 

[2BAD4U]

And activity has returned to the bottom end of the market .... HERE

And before you say, "but they're agents they would say that". Here is the supporting data.

"The Office of State Revenue would not release data on the number of applications pending but did confirm that there had been a heightened level of telephone inquiry from prospective first-homebuyers since the Commonwealth funding boost was announced."

With more homes selling at the bottom end of the market, the median house price will come down but this doesn't mean prices are falling.

 

[numbercruncher]

And activity has returned to the bottom end of the market .... HERE

And before you say, "but they're agents they would say that". Here is the supporting data.

"The Office of State Revenue would not release data on the number of applications pending but did confirm that there had been a heightened level of telephone inquiry from prospective first-homebuyers since the Commonwealth funding boost was announced."

With more homes selling at the bottom end of the market, the median house price will come down but this doesn't mean prices are falling.

OMFG its worse than I suspected and WA is the only place im invested in RE (outside of LPTs) ....

More than $4.25 million in First Home Owner Boost grants have been paid to WA first-homebuyers since the Federal Government announced the additional grant in October.

Figures released to The West Australian, show 546 first-homebuyers had taken advantage of the new boost grant to buy their first home. The boost grants are in addition to the $7000 first-homeowners grant.

546 FHBs for a whole 2 months for the entire state of WA with a doubled grant - carnage.

At this pace FHBs will buy 7000 homes this year, boom times ?

 

[IFocus]

And activity has returned to the bottom end of the market .... HERE

And before you say, "but they're agents they would say that". Here is the supporting data.

"The Office of State Revenue would not release data on the number of applications pending but did confirm that there had been a heightened level of telephone inquiry from prospective first-homebuyers since the Commonwealth funding boost was announced."

With more homes selling at the bottom end of the market, the median house price will come down but this doesn't mean prices are falling.

Hopefully the Govs efforts will put a floor under pricing as its intended to and that the velocity of the $10bil remains high enough to maintain confidence.

That maybe gets us to mid year Dhukka how long do you think?

 

[dhukka]

The analogy to the share market with property fits in how?

That has been our point all along - this is not a cheap shot - the nature of this asset class is such that it primarily is a dwelling and therefore not susceptible to the gyrations of the stockmarket. The property holder owns a house as a home. In reality a second house is an investment and that is shielded by the attitude of the owner of PPOR in Australia - sorry can't see the connection.

You've missed the point. I'm not saying the property market will act the same as the sharemarket. The property market is nowhere near as volatile as the sharemarket for sure. The point is, extrapolating the past to predict the future is fraught with danger whatever you are trying to predict, stockmarkets, property, the weather.

 

[dhukka]

dhukka....
why with history going back 100 years...perfect hindsight for you...saves you trying to pick the future...would you view with caution....????

kincella,

I've read this a number of times now...... I see a question mark.........not sure of the question though........kind of hard to read with all the dots.........

 

[kincella]

2bad4u.....seems like the truth is stranger than fiction (read fiction = media)
couple of us have been doing our own research and know all the low priced properties are all but sold out....in the suburbs we follow.....
hello....another reason median prices are going down....

ps you probably do not need to be familiar with the suburb to determine they are the lower priced props.....just think 1 bdr's are usually bottom of the market....and then the appearance/ exterior.....sometimes you need to go further.... for eg; in one suburb I follow if you did not know the area ...you would not know that suburb xxxx is full of housing commission homes and low life, or another area not much better...in fact it has several awful burbs to stay clear of...but I see homes in those areas have been selling past 3 months.....
I guess 'due diligence' springs to mind, drive around the neighbourhood of the chosen property, check it out at different times.....see what the neighbours ae like in the evening etc....
cheers

 

[2BAD4U]

546 FHBs for a whole 2 months for the entire state of WA with a doubled grant - carnage.

At this pace FHBs will buy 7000 homes this year, boom times ?

Oh I'm sorry, do you need a link for the definitions of "returned" and "hightened". Perhaps a link to see how median prices are calculated and how this "return" of first home buyers affects that figure, the one that's falling which means we must all be losing money.

 

[2BAD4U]

OMFG its worse than I suspected and WA is the only place im invested in RE (outside of LPTs) ....

That's a shame - because it's also happening in NSW

 

[numbercruncher]

Oh I'm sorry, do you need a link

Yes Id love the permabulls to start providing links instead of "personal" stories in the " House prices to keep rising for years " debate.