House prices to keep rising for years

[tech/a]

The psychology around this discussion is very FMG thread like, people who are in love with their investment.

Can be said of any held investment.Those who held on to their managed funds/stock with 50% loss are no different. Those who hold on or have bought property which is likely to see 50% fall in price are certainly in the "thick" pile of humanity.Property is like any other investment it will rise and fall.Some investments rise and fall spectacularly---so to can property.
Some hold their value exceptionally well---so to can property. Some investors mitigate risk while "Speculating"---so to can property investors.

Whats puts people at high risk is their complete belief of the invincibility of investing in property.

This is true of a small minority who buy tops.
What puts people at high risk of financial mediocrity is the lack of ability to
(1) Recognise opportunity
(2) Know how to take advantage of it.
(3) DO IT.
Fear paralysis would be NUMBER ONE on my list

To think that some how there will be little effect at some time in the future here in Oz from the biggest global financial crisis seen in our generation is bizarre.

To think that there cant be opportunity and there will be financial armageddon infinitum is just as bizarre.

When was the last time you remember an Oz Gov throwing $10bil at the economy and demanding people spend it.

Its been a while since we had such a dumb govt.Throwing 10 billion to the masses who have proven they cant control their own financial affairs---in a quick fix feel good xmas gesture to "Stimulate" the economy over the xmas period is BIZARRE. This govt has lead its people in a display of excess stupidity. 10 bill on Infrastructure would have had far reaching stimulus in the years to come. Its band aid effects have even now passed!

Check out the rate of fall in the 30 day cash rate find another time this happened........ you wont.

Will it unfold to a crisis here I don't know but Fu#K if you cannot see the looming risk your brain dead, of course IMHO.

And if you've done nothing to mitigate risk AND closed your mind to opportunity then your just as Brain Dead.
Buffett's been buying his brains out whilst mitigating risk.

Is it not possible that the general populace cant do the same in all areas of investment?
Do you really believe that its that impossible either now or in the not to distant future?
Do you really believe that anyone who holds property in particular multiple properties are doomed to stupidity and mass destruction of nett wealth.
Do you really think that people who have put themselves in the position to take advantage of opportunity are that dumb that they cant evaluate and mitigate their own risk profiles?

Whats so BIZARRE about this thread is the insistence that those taking part are either full on Bullish OR full on Bearish property.
There are some here who aren't going to PANICK.
Who aren't going to throw caution to the wind
Who are going to and are turning this "Perceived" negative into a positive.

It is an opportunity to re balance your portfolio if you haven't already and place yourself in a position to take advantage of the economic armageddon.

 

[dhukka]

the statistics dont share that view. UK rents were worse:



what's the figures on house price drops in NY compared to the sun/rust belt you talk of?

im not saying there wont be a drop (financial market deflation has to put downward pressure on prices). just it wont drop off a cliff.

According to the Case Shiller Home Price Index, as of October 2008, home price falls from their respective peaks are as follows;

New York -11.9%
Boston -12.8%
Detroit -32.2%

20 City average -23.4%

 

[gfresh]

It's not bizarre, it's human nature.. it wouldn't be a good argument if everybody was to meet somewhere in the middle would it ? Without provocative comments I don't think half of the good posts would have come out on here.

We've only seen round #1 of the handouts. $40bn is in the next round of "infrastructure" / longer term spending.

Chops comment on Canada was worth following up on some similarities to Aussie economy. Can't find too many references to see it's crashing, but seems to be similar state to Australian market at present... almost like you're reading an Aussie newspaper

http://www.propertywire.com/news/north-america/falls-property-canada-2009-200901012330.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081211.reBelford1212/REStory/RealEstate/home

 

[Bill M]

Whats so BIZARRE about this thread is the insistence that those taking part are either full on Bullish OR full on Bearish property.
There are some here who aren't going to PANICK.
Who aren't going to throw caution to the wind
Who are going to and are turning this "Perceived" negative into a positive.

It is an opportunity to re balance your portfolio if you haven't already and place yourself in a position to take advantage of the economic armageddon.

Never a truer word spoken. In the next few Months interest rates will probably be lower and you will be able to get home loans at 50 years lows. Some buyers might disappear which will make buying that property just that much easier. I am seriously thinking of taking advantage of this situation, particularly with the rental shortage we have here.

 

[kransky]

Its been a while since we had such a dumb govt.Throwing 10 billion to the masses who have proven they cant control their own financial affairs---in a quick fix feel good xmas gesture to "Stimulate" the economy over the xmas period is BIZARRE. This govt has lead its people in a display of excess stupidity. 10 bill on Infrastructure would have had far reaching stimulus in the years to come. Its band aid effects have even now passed!

cash payments over infrastructure spending drives me crazy... bloody politics BS

 

[tech/a]

It's not bizarre, it's human nature.. it wouldn't be a good argument if everybody was to meet somewhere in the middle would it ? Without provocative comments I don't think half of the good posts would have come out on here.

Those who have an all or nothing philosophy to life would agree with you.
80% of posts by the extremists here have no value to those reading. Just I'm right your wrong---no argument as to why or how or what to look for.

If a more balanced argument came from the extremists they to might have a more balanced and secure financial future.

Oh and Human Nature tends to be a poor indicator for argument/opportunity.

 

[dhukka]

I totally disagree with this statement, history is still the best guide, we will see again.

Sure it's a guide, but expecting the next 30 years to play out the same or even similar to the last 30 years should be viewed with caution.

 

[dhukka]

But we will be looking back a lot further than a boomer bubbled 30 years though.

Robert Shiller has shown through his analysis of US home prices from 1890 that over time they have only kept up with inflation. Would it be more accurate to view the last 30 years as a guide or an anomaly?

 

[wayneL]

Those who have an all or nothing philosophy to life would agree with you.
80% of posts by the extremists here have no value to those reading. Just I'm right your wrong---no argument as to why or how or what to look for.

If a more balanced argument came from the extremists they to might have a more balanced and secure financial future.

Oh and Human Nature tends to be a poor indicator for argument/opportunity.

Are only bears extremists?

 

[wayneL]

Robert Shiller has shown through his analysis of US home prices from 1890 that over time they have only kept up with inflation. Would it be more accurate to view the last 30 years as a guide or an anomaly?

I'm going for the anomaly... not just in housing either.

 

[kincella]

Tech.....spot on
'80% of posts by the extremists here have no value to those reading. Just I'm right your wrong---no argument as to why or how or what to look for.'

dhukka....
why with history going back 100 years...perfect hindsight for you...saves you trying to pick the future...would you view with caution....????

the current crisis being played out right now...is an exact repeat of what happened in the 1970's....same fraudsters, same bailout by feds..., except then inflation was at 12%, interest rates 18-20%...add to that asian crisis, oil embargo.....hint do some quick research.....in fact there has hardly been a time in history when there is not some crisis unfolding, coming to an end...just beginning.......

even Buffett (who I think is more lucky and cautious than smart) suggests look backwards to find out where you are going in the future.....

I use the 100 year housing charts to plot my future.....almost nothing else is required.....the only thing I dont do, is buy at the top of the market....and interest rates change...so again I dont worry too much about them....
this plan has worked a treat so far.....and I am already planning to buy more props.....with interest rates coming down to 2.5 to 3%......its too much of a godsend to not take up....a window of opportunity....some people only see it once in a lifetime...others never see it....others are always on the lookout...
****absolutley no way do I want to influence anyone into buying....** just offering some of my own experience...use it as you want...
cheers

 

[tech/a]

Are only bears extremists?

My opinion is that ANY consistently dogmatic view without supporting arguement is extremist.
NOT wether it fits with my view or not.

I have mellowed in view point----somewhat over the years not without the odd hit in the head from the Wayne Ls of the world.

 

[IFocus]

Can be said of any held investment.Those who held on to their managed funds/stock with 50% loss are no different.

I leverage much higher into property than stocks losing 50% in property as a new participant would be a problem I assume this would apply to many others.

Those who hold on or have bought property which is likely to see 50% fall in price are certainly in the "thick" pile of humanity.Property is like any other investment it will rise and fall.Some investments rise and fall spectacularly---so to can property.
Some hold their value exceptionally well---so to can property. Some investors mitigate risk while "Speculating"---so to can property investors.

Excellent so we agree then

This is true of a small minority who buy tops.
What puts people at high risk of financial mediocrity is the lack of ability to
(1) Recognise opportunity
(2) Know how to take advantage of it.
(3) DO IT.
Fear paralysis would be NUMBER ONE on my list

(4) Measuring your risk and understanding an exit plan again extraordinary you don't note this in fact is bizarre given your own life experiences etc wouldn't it be number one.

To think that there cant be opportunity and there will be financial armageddon infinitum is just as bizarre.

Opportunity to come is a given already mentioned numerous times but not so sure of financial Armageddon infinitum, uncertainty of where it will go 2009 -2010 absolutely, warning signs, flashing red lights, sirens.

Its been a while since we had such a dumb govt.Throwing 10 billion to the masses who have proven they cant control their own financial affairs---in a quick fix feel good xmas gesture to "Stimulate" the economy over the xmas period is BIZARRE. This govt has lead its people in a display of excess stupidity. 10 bill on Infrastructure would have had far reaching stimulus in the years to come. Its band aid effects have even now passed!

Actually if you look at the key government measures it was about underpinning housing prices and banks. The measures that they have taken is advice directly from treasury and the RBA I take it you are calling them dumb, Labour are not smart enough to know actually what to do. Whats more of a shock is calls from the Libs front bench are worse.

And if you've done nothing to mitigate risk AND closed your mind to opportunity then your just as Brain Dead.
Buffett's been buying his brains out whilst mitigating risk.

Is it not possible that the general populace cant do the same in all areas of investment?
Do you really believe that its that impossible either now or in the not to distant future?
Do you really believe that anyone who holds property in particular multiple properties are doomed to stupidity and mass destruction of nett wealth.
Do you really think that people who have put themselves in the position to take advantage of opportunity are that dumb that they cant evaluate and mitigate their own risk profiles?

Think if you read the FMG thread you will see the answer........

Whats so BIZARRE about this thread is the insistence that those taking part are either full on Bullish OR full on Bearish property.
There are some here who aren't going to PANICK.
Who aren't going to throw caution to the wind
Who are going to and are turning this "Perceived" negative into a positive.

I missed those posts

It is an opportunity to re balance your portfolio if you haven't already and place yourself in a position to take advantage of the economic Armageddon.

Agree here except I am not so sure of the Armageddon bit but I am sure of the risk.

 

[numbercruncher]

My opinion is that ANY consistently dogmatic view without supporting arguement is extremist.
NOT wether it fits with my view or not.

I have mellowed in view point----somewhat over the years not without the odd hit in the head from the Wayne Ls of the world.

Arnt you the same chap that said a few pages back that anyone not buying realestate (before your predicted inflationary period) will find themselves and their offspring for atleast 3 generations locked out of home ownership ?

Is that not extremism personified ? did you have supporting arguments for this dire prediction ?

 

[Lancelot]

Which includes all the sun belt/rust belt rubbish.

And all the crap here as well

 

[knocker]

Arnt you the same chap that said a few pages back that anyone not buying realestate (before your predicted inflationary period) will find themselves and their offspring for atleast 3 generations locked out of home ownership ?

Is that not extremism personified ? did you have supporting arguments for this dire prediction ?

I agree. i think such posts are condescending and indicative of the low calibre type person who would post. All these legends who proclaim to be the best because they made a few bucks from real estate are full of the proverbial in my opinion.

 

[juddy]

I use the 100 year housing charts to plot my future....

You mean the ones you stumbled across a fortnight ago?

 

[Lancelot]

I agree. i think such posts are condescending and indicative of the low calibre type person who would post. All these legends who proclaim to be the best because they made a few bucks from real estate are full of the proverbial in my opinion.

Says he making condescending comments.

You wouldnt be a low calibre type person knocker would you?

 

[kransky]

from a theoretical standpoint, if houses are used as a investment vehicle then i can see how they could possibly keep rising for a long time...

you get the situation where the have's get richer and richer as their property appreciates, generates income and they accrue more... and the have-not's get poorer and poorer and less and less likely to ever own their home as they pay more for rent and prices rise..

i mean for property that is desirable.. ie close to jobs and infrastructure and facilities etc...

seems plausible.. but i see a possible energy crisis emerge to change all this...
if food production becomes more person and less energy intensive if energy becomes much more expensive then their will be a change in what locations are desirable..

 

[tech/a]

(4) Measuring your risk and understanding an exit plan again extraordinary you don't note this in fact is bizarre given your own life experiences etc wouldn't it be number one.

Measuring opportunity is inter related to risk.
If there is too much risk then its not an opportunity is it?

Actually if you look at the key government measures it was about underpinning housing prices and banks.

We are talking of the 10 billion. Yeh they are DUMB. Didnt see the Yanks or the Pomms getting a few grand for Xmas spending!

Arnt you the same chap that said a few pages back that anyone not buying realestate (before your predicted inflationary period) will find themselves and their offspring for atleast 3 generations locked out of home ownership ?

Reading isnt your strong point.
"After EVERY Recessionary-or Depressionary period there is a period of inflation---at worse Hyper inflation"
Go have a look.I'm not going to do all your due diligence for you!

Hey look guys rent your brains out.
retirement will be fun if you ever get in that positions.
By the time you retire its unlikely governments will be able to afford supporting you. Paying your rent will be fun without a cashflow.

But hey thats years off---