Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep rising for years

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maybe the losses meant they couldnt afford to go out?

or perhaps we're all market nerds with no friends? :p:
 
hello,

5yrs gone, 10yrs gone, 20yrs is nothing man, year on year it appears to get quicker and quicker and some others may share that thought around more


thankyou
robots

It is if you die lol

thankyou, over and out
 
Thats nothing new -I am ageing poor idealist - my chosen methodology was then outside the box as it were - real estate. Worked well.

Sadly - biggest pawns and tools of the lords - your good old graduates educated by unwittin academia - fodder for the system of snakes and ladders - footsoldiers of commerce!

No thanks
 
Thats nothing new -I am ageing poor idealist - my chosen methodology was then outside the box as it were - real estate. Worked well.

Real Estate? Outside the Box?

LOL

Look! Real estate is a fantastic investment vehicle, particularly if you're lucky enough to catch the most massive credit expansion ever... but outside the box it ain't.

It's been a standard investment practice for centuries.

LOLOL
 
Thats nothing new -I am ageing poor idealist - my chosen methodology was then outside the box as it were - real estate. Worked well.

Sadly - biggest pawns and tools of the lords - your good old graduates educated by unwittin academia - fodder for the system of snakes and ladders - footsoldiers of commerce!

No thanks

Didn't I already counter that from you? :rolleyes:
 
Tech, with all due respect, some of those questions are completely loaded and complete BS.

For #1, going into debt at the start of a cycle of high interest rates in my mind is not smart. That is a question that needs to be asked of the people already in. As we can't fix for long terms here.

Dont think its close yet (The increasing of rates) but it will come as will a bottom.I can get 7 yrs no problem fixed but not yet (Wont fix yet). I'll be locking them in on the way DOWN not on the way UP either!


For #3... you could just as easily ask why rents have vastly exceeded wage growth, and are still not even in line with property prices, and how long it will stay like that.

Yes you could and the answers wouldnt auger well for stability in housing prices.

For #4. Just buy gold. Seriously.

Yes you could. But you cant live in a $350,000 Gold Bar or take advantages of Tax breaks or rent a part of it to a tennent or do some work on it to add value or subdivide it and increase its value.
You could however buy a smaller bar.

Serously, these inflation fears are farcical. 2009 will be a year of deflation, don't be surprised to see the RBA cash rate with a 2 handle on it. There is no urgency to rush out and buy property in the next 12 months.

I agree but there will come a time when there is a bottom.
Those sitting on the fence should be (If they want a home) watching carefully.

GAV
I wasnt/am not concerned for you.
I was of the opinion you have considered the questions and those of your own.
 
Originally Posted by kransky View Post
i am a non home owner hoping for big falls in prices... i'd like a house without the lifetime enslavement currently associated with buying one.

Initially this is the perception and a very real fear from first home buyers.
Initially this will be the case for most. 2 wages seemingly disappearing into a bottomless pit.
But as time goes by you WILL build an equity in your home---equity that should be wisely used in duplication,as you become more experienced in the life long business of securing your and your families financial future.

Duplication is the key---this may not be sloey housing either. But duplication or inclusion of investments which generate income in surplus to your own wage.
It maybe another house or so if conditions in the future scream BUY NOW.
It maybe some developement as you learn how this can be a great money spinner without massive risk.
It maybe a share portfolio as you see a re emergence of strong growth.
It maybe a business which you buy and have managed by others while you still work. That equity (At suitable times) should be used wisely NOT left sitting doing NOTHING.
 
glen thanks for the advice...really, but I am fairly stubborn....

I have bought 10, sold 5 made good money everytime....would never dream of selling for a loss, and I have earmarked one for a major renovation, with very low interest rates, it should be a breeze....
claim the tax loss on running costs,if there is a loss on the other props

hopefully there will not be a shortage of builders...but I doubt it.....
depending on how busy I want to be,,,might buy another little bargain if I can find one....just rent it out and sit back and wait....for the recovery....
or I can do nothing....a passive investment....

see regardless of all the predictions....with low interest rates its better to be borrowing and buying bargains...than doing nothing....changes the goal posts....would only pay down capital when rates are high...do the opposite when rates are low....but this is my personal view,,,,contrarian type investor, inclined to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing....worked for me before.....
refinanced loans in December...wiped off 16,000 pa in 2 loans....expect to better that with the next rate cuts...aiming for a reduction of 30,000 in interest costs...like having another wage without having to work for it...
cheers

Got it in one Mr Burns

Were property prices to plunge I along with many bulls would be in there buying like crazy cause we look long term and below a certain threshold plus with low rates you would be a fool not to. We obviously are the biggest of them all as we did it with the last recession when after that any fool could have made money and we did.

Now this time , should it happen, guess who will be there before the hopeful bears, Passive and his cronies buying up big for his kids and grandkids because it will be an opportunity of a lifetime. Now with another million or so cashed up boomers in Aus doing the same what chance have the hopefuls got? Some have no idea. Top end of town have lost heavily and quite frankly if it all came back down it would not be long before it zoomed up again because there is so much in favour of property investing in Australia it seems absolutely ridiculous to preclude this asset class from your portfolio if you have half a decent income and equity elsewhere.

Love this were prices too plunge I and my mates would be in there buying.
Every bear market I've ever seen is recognisable by 3 distinct features
1) Banks are reluctant to lend/have tight lending criteria
2) Lots of sellers no buyers (real estate windows will be full again)
3) just like in nature bottoms are like wide valleys were as tops are like mountain peaks. Peaks form quickly the bottoms take a long time and you won't have to fight anyone to buy all the houses you want

The other problem with buying when rates are low and going down further you have to ask why they are low and going down further
answer probably pointing to low pressure for money (supply demand) or pointing to deflation
High rates after all gave property people there biggest capital gains via inflation and real rates is probably the real key here. I remember paying minus at one point when rates were 13% but inflation was rampant at about 18% till banks caught up and inflation also came down
Your right there will be a bottom but just like last time there is no panic it won't happen overnight and I'd rather look at the criteria before I buy when the downturn has just started .
By the way I'm not a perma bear but when the government panics and gives away $10 billion to pensioners etc to fix the economy I sit up and take notice and ask what they know that we don't yet know and when the stock market charts all say MAJOR correction just starting not ending even though we will have a good rally this year IMO I think housing much closer to top than bottom
 
Joey...whatever...banks tightening credit....where is the evidence ? I called CBA early Dec to get information about their loans....not a customer, but the guy on the other end said most australians were a customer...he checked my name, sure enough...I was with commsec, so am classified as a cba customer...refinance approved over a 10 min tel call....
no worries....not hocked to the hilt...plenty of equity....
my lender was not passing on the rate cuts....hence the change
happy days
 
ever since they changed the capitals gains law for home value increase every tom dick and harry has become a property investor... at the cost of the younger generation. at current house affordability levels we young people are majorly screwed.

Sorry, but which change to capital gains tax law would that be exactly and when???

Are you referring to the actual original introduction of the requirement to pay capital gains tax on investment property (and anything other asset for that matter) capital profits, which was introduced by the Hawke government in 1984?

Ie, prior to 1984 all profit from investment property was absolutely tax free, and I can't see how that change supports your point above??

Beej
 
Joey...whatever...banks tightening credit....where is the evidence ? I called CBA early Dec to get information about their loans....not a customer, but the guy on the other end said most australians were a customer...he checked my name, sure enough...I was with commsec, so am classified as a cba customer...refinance approved over a 10 min tel call....
no worries....not hocked to the hilt...plenty of equity....
my lender was not passing on the rate cuts....hence the change
happy days

Exactly my point were not at the bottom
Banks lend willingly at tops inc low doc loans but at bottoms no matter how much equity you have they are reluctant to lend
Not even sure if there wil be another run in house prices before they give way but cycles and history show we are very close to if not past top
Simple investment clock I learnt was at 6.00 clock (bottom) we thhen start to see rising commodity prices followed by rising stock prices followed by rising RE prices then higher interest rates as demand for money goes up
At 12.00 (top) we start to see falling commodity prices followed by falling SP then falling RE then falling IR as demand for money falls . Said it before interest rates have nothing to do with reserve bank they dont set rates market does and if you look closely over time you will see governments (all levels are reactive not proactive (this includes reserve bank)
never before seen such falls at the same time and cannot see how or why RE should be any different but not sure how far it will fall just know to look for the signs that there are no buyers (except for Passive and his mates) and the press is headlining nothing about houses or RE in general
 
joey, sounds like lots of theory....are you not a homeowner ....I have been in property for over 40 years.....have some experience.....I tend not to do what the crowd does.....
 
It must also be said that the oversupply in the US only applies to certain areas in the Sun Belt and Rust Belt. New Yawwwk, and the NE doesn't have oversupply, yet has still seen hefty falls.

Brings out the pic again
 

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Joey...whatever...banks tightening credit....where is the evidence ? I called CBA early Dec to get information about their loans....not a customer, but the guy on the other end said most australians were a customer...he checked my name, sure enough...I was with commsec, so am classified as a cba customer...refinance approved over a 10 min tel call....
no worries....not hocked to the hilt...plenty of equity....
my lender was not passing on the rate cuts....hence the change
happy days

Same same, except the bank actually asked us when we were going to go again, almost pushing the cash on us they were.
 
Quite frankly anyone who takes any advice from this or any other board regarding real estate their finances etc. needs their heads read. The only decent thing that comes from posts here are links to reports data etc. Up to the individual to make the decision.
 
The analogy to the share market with property fits in how?

That has been our point all along - this is not a cheap shot - the nature of this asset class is such that it primarily is a dwelling and therefore not susceptible to the gyrations of the stockmarket. The property holder owns a house as a home. In reality a second house is an investment and that is shielded by the attitude of the owner of PPOR in Australia - sorry can't see the connection.

The psychology around this discussion is very FMG thread like, people who are in love with their investment.

Whats puts people at high risk is their complete belief of the invincibility of investing in property.

To think that some how there will be little effect at some time in the future here in Oz from the biggest global financial crisis seen in our generation is bizarre.

When was the last time you remember an Oz Gov throwing $10bil at the economy and demanding people spend it.

Check out the rate of fall in the 30 day cash rate find another time this happened........ you wont.

Will it unfold to a crisis here I don't know but Fu#K if you cannot see the looming risk your brain dead, of course IMHO.
 
Sorry, but which change to capital gains tax law would that be exactly and when???

Are you referring to the actual original introduction of the requirement to pay capital gains tax on investment property (and anything other asset for that matter) capital profits, which was introduced by the Hawke government in 1984?

Ie, prior to 1984 all profit from investment property was absolutely tax free, and I can't see how that change supports your point above??

Beej

i was under the incorrect impression that capital gains laws were changed around then which helped stimulate the house as an investment vehicle boom.... where the hell did i get that from :confused:

anyway, capital gains tax was introduced in 86...
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/INTGUIDE/law/taxlaw.htm
 
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