House prices to keep falling for years

[ROE]

Stop talking non-sense house price double every 7 years,
some double quicker than other

 

[Beej]

George Soros is predicting a drop of house prices by 90% in USa ( same here) he did not realise how bad this could get and has admitted it is much bigger than he ever thought it could get to.

Seriously LOL LOL LOL 90%??? !!! ??? Yeah right LOL LOL!!!!!

PS: Do you know how much it costs even to BUILD a house, even if the land is free?????

This thread is getting more ridiculous by the day - a fall in NATIONAL MEDIAN prices of a few percent, on low volume particularly in high end, as has happened many many times before, with no real impact on the long term growth prospects for property values, and yet now we are up to predictions of 90% falls from the previous 30-40% predictions!!

Beej

 

[Glen48]

Try this:
GeorgeSoros.com.
GM share are worth $0 are here we are trying to support the cars industry.
This is moving so quickly it is like some one has a sore throat, gets worse, goes to bed, goes to Hospital at 3AM and is dead the next night

 

[Pommiegranite]

Try this:
GeorgeSoros.com.
GM share are worth $0 are here we are trying to support the cars industry.
This is moving so quickly it is like some one has a sore throat, gets worse, goes to bed, goes to Hospital at 3AM and is dead the next night

As nice as that?

How about 'patient in a an ambulance on his way to hospital for emergency treatment. Ambulance runs out of fuel in ghetto neighbourhood of St Kilda. Ambulance, paramedics and patient get robbed and attacked with knives. End result: 3 dead, kidneys and eyeballs stolen. Ambulance stripped and now a smouldering wreck'.

 

[Temjin]

George Soros is predicting a drop of house prices by 90% in USa ( same here) he did not realise how bad this could get and has admitted it is much bigger than he ever thought it could get to.

I do follow George Soros stuff quite closely but I don't think I have come across with him predicting a 90% drop in house prices BOTH in the US AND in Australia.

Would be great if you could give us a direct link on that.

Seriously LOL LOL LOL 90%??? !!! ??? Yeah right LOL LOL!!!!!

PS: Do you know how much it costs even to BUILD a house, even if the land is free?????

This thread is getting more ridiculous by the day - a fall in NATIONAL MEDIAN prices of a few percent, on low volume particularly in high end, as has happened many many times before, with no real impact on the long term growth prospects for property values, and yet now we are up to predictions of 90% falls from the previous 30-40% predictions!!

Beej

Yes, you can ignore the 90% prediction.

But do you know who George Soros is??

He is more than rich enough and have made many HIGH PROFILE (and accurate) predictions leading to this global financial crisis to NOT take him seriously.

I do not think you are in any way experienced / educated enough to judge George Soro's predictions. He was right on the spot on the S&P 500 prediction made 10 years ago and was only off by merely 3 days. It's pretty well known too.

But like I said, I do not believe George Soros has mentioned a 90% drop in house prices. So don't take it as if we "doom and gloom" ppls believe it will happen and quickly come into a conclusion how "ridicious" this thread is because it DOES NOT FIT your believe.

 

[ROE]

"People who talk about a bubble are blowing smoke," said real estate economist Michael Carney. It was February 2005 and Carney was confident that house prices in California wouldn't fall. But by the end of the year the market turned. And between August 2007 and August 2008, California house prices fell by more than 40%.


Let see if Aussie Steven Keen is blowing smoke or not

 

[ROE]

We have a supplied problem here so price wont drop


"Even as the US bubble reached bursting point, commentators there insisted that there was no problem because there was no evidence of oversupply. As James Smith, chief economist for the Society of Industrial and Office REALTORS, wrote in 2004, "One indicator of a bubble is a rapid increase in the supply of the asset in question. [But] housing inventories have been at very low levels for over five years suggesting there is no excess supply of houses."

I have a few collection of pre-bubble quotes time to use them.

 

[ROE]

I do follow George Soros stuff quite closely but I don't think I have come across with him predicting a 90% drop in house prices BOTH in the US AND in Australia.

Would be great if you could give us a direct link on that.



Yes, you can ignore the 90% prediction.

But do you know who George Soros is??

He is more than rich enough and have made many HIGH PROFILE (and accurate) predictions leading to this global financial crisis to NOT take him seriously.

I do not think you are in any way experienced / educated enough to judge George Soro's predictions. He was right on the spot on the S&P 500 prediction made 10 years ago and was only off by merely 3 days. It's pretty well known too.

But like I said, I do not believe George Soros has mentioned a 90% drop in house prices. So don't take it as if we "doom and gloom" ppls believe it will happen and quickly come into a conclusion how "ridicious" this thread is because it DOES NOT FIT your believe.

Let be realistic 90% come George you are getting a little old but a modest 20% - 30% dropped with high unemployment will wiped out almost all property investor let alone 90%
remember 80% of property investors has income of $80,000 and less.

Be afraid, be very very afraid

 

[DowJones]

We have a supplied problem here so price wont drop


"Even as the US bubble reached bursting point, commentators there insisted that there was no problem because there was no evidence of oversupply. As James Smith, chief economist for the Society of Industrial and Office REALTORS, wrote in 2004, "One indicator of a bubble is a rapid increase in the supply of the asset in question. [But] housing inventories have been at very low levels for over five years suggesting there is no excess supply of houses."

I have a few collection of pre-bubble quotes time to use them.

Remember Econmics 101 - its about SUPPLY and DEMAND. From what we are seeing in the deteoration of the global economy, its an educated guess to expect the other side of the equation to curtail.

People will demand less housing - things people do are to move to cheaper housing areas (away from cities), move back in with parents and have more people living in each house.

This has to have a material effect on housing prices.

 

[arco]

Remember Econmics 101 - its about SUPPLY and DEMAND. From what we are seeing in the deteoration of the global economy, its an educated guess to expect the other side of the equation to curtail.

People will demand less housing - things people do are to move to cheaper housing areas (away from cities), move back in with parents and have more people living in each house.

This has to have a material effect on housing prices.

Agree.

Also many other factors can come into play.

e.g.

Oldies are now 'flatting'

6 people sharing can put an extra 5 houses on the market. This is already happening in NZ

Flatting for Oldies
Many fear old age but like it or not we are all going to face it. What do you do when you reach the reality we all dread - where will I live, will I grow old alone, will I have enough money to live with dignity? A new alternative in lifestyle for the elderley is called Abbeyfield and there are Abbeyfields all over New Zealand. The complexes allows older people to go flatting at a fraction of the price of a rest home.

 

[cuttlefish]

As nice as that?

How about 'patient in a an ambulance on his way to hospital for emergency treatment. Ambulance runs out of fuel in ghetto neighbourhood of St Kilda. Ambulance, paramedics and patient get robbed and attacked with knives. End result: 3 dead, kidneys and eyeballs stolen. Ambulance stripped and now a smouldering wreck'.

The theives used the money they stole to put a deposit on a nice little 2 bedroom apartment being offloaded by a panicking property investor after prices slumped 14.7% wiping out all his capital gains. It was well located close to transport and had a brothel conveniently located at the end of the street.

LJ "Hooker" representative Tammy BlingBling Smythe said that there were a lot of crooks taking advantage of the property slump to buy into the area - helping to reinforce the suburbs colourful character.

A mechanical looking man was heard groaning "every seven years I tell you brother" in the background, after which he politely said "thankyou".

 

[robots]

hello,

i think you have the wrong suburb brothers:

http://www.theage.com.au/national/shooting-victim-staggers-to-toorak-flats-20081111-5lvm.html

we clean as now, safe and sound anywhere in sunny St Kilda

thankyou
robots

 

[Glen48]

Supply and demand is all this goes on just another bubble in the long history of bubbles from Tulips to Pine Forest to Amway to Liam's.
What happens when the 200K + + working in the car business all loose their jobs are they still going to keep paying of a house or walk out like they are now doing up the road from my place?
50% -90% so what! it is all bad news, Think I will dial 911 and wait for the Ambo.
I hope my Land lord is not to stressed knowing Her "Investment" pfffft is worth less than she owes and more to come of the value next month.

 

[Glen48]

World debt:
http://blog.mint.com/blog/finance-core/visualizing-uncle-sams-debt/?ref=patrick.net

 

[Glen48]

Denial of House prices.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27648884?ref=patrick.net

 

[Pager]

Like all bubbles and i think there has been a price bubble in property the past 10 years, it will burst, hopefully not dramaticly but i wont hold my brath on that one, surely though prices will deviate back to long term averages as over the next few years wages grow a little and house prices go down, maybe in another 10 years your average house will be back to around 4 times the average annual salary for working Australians ?, for Sydney at present thats about $260,000 (4x $65000) rather than the current $530,000 the mediun house price is.

 

[So_Cynical]

Maybe its time to invest in Caravan parks, all them evictees are gona need somewhere low rent to live.

Are there any listed company's with trailer park assets?

 

[Glen48]

We will end up like the Yanks with Trailer parks/ demountable or Acre's or Caravans. I remember in the 80's nearly every second house had Caravan in the back yard for some innerspring Matress relation..

 

[singlefished]

Denial of House prices.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27648884?ref=patrick.net

Interesting article - Our perspective of US realty will be tainted by how our media providers portray it to us ~ all we hear about the US economy is concentrated bad news whenever we turn on the TV.... This focus is obviously undiluted when it's served up as special commentary by the likes of Alan Kohler and other such economic analyists. In the US they'll be mixing this news in with the regular day-to-day local news (car jacking, court ruling, sports & lottery winner stories) and many people wont be bothering to listen I imagine.

Ignonance is Bliss!!!

I can understand this attitude however and as an example of how the ignorance can be facilitated, do you ever find yourself asking the following question - I'm too busy for the country to be going down the tubes - how can it all be bad news when my life remains generally unaffected and I'm not really seeing much of this doom and gloom out there? Business confidence however is at lows not seen for a few decades so the hot tip would be to prepare for bad times and avoid the blindside cover ignorance can provide.

A lot of truth in the article though and you can see some of this attitude filtering through via the nonchalant "pftt, only a couple of percent down on low volumes... blah, blah, blah" style responses whenever the bad news bears gleefully provide commentary on the steadily declining Aussie housing market.

The offenders will of course DENY this but that's only to be expected, it's in their nature

 

[So_Cynical]

Interesting interview with Robert Shiller on the &:30 report a couple of nights ago. Shiller saw a lot of the current mess coming years ago and called the tech bubble back in 200.

dhukka posted this in the imminent and severe thread...though it was relevant here, as the
expert said 12 million houses in the states are worth less than there mortgages and there's
10000 foreclosures per month....US futures predicting further falls.