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House prices to keep falling for years

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Glen48 said:
To work out a price take 1 MONTHS rent and x by 150 and you have your price.
Click to expand...

Forgive my lack of knowledge on property, but how did you come by this figure? I am renting, but if I could buy the place I am currently living in for 150 x 1 month rent, I'd be in the bank today for a loan
 
^^^^^

I'm a buyer at 150x monthly rent too. Hard to see that ever happening in melbourne.
 
gfresh said:
Fantastic news! Melbourne down 3.3%. You wanted figures Robots, well there they are, from the great man himself..

-3.3 x $400k = -$13.2k - 8% x say $300k loan = -$37,200. That's a lot of rent.
Click to expand...

Hmm thats quite a loss. Anyone that did that might have done better not to get out of bed the day the locked that in! But in reality most of us property types buy with cash as interest money is dead money like rent.
 

hello,

yes fantastic figures, ST KILDa up 14.7% awesome, a lot of other suburbs banging it on too..

-3.3% compared to the SHock ExchANge at 30% now thats numbers

enjoy the day man

thankyou
robots
 
Wow! So the Melbourne median house price is back to where it was sometime between March and June this year... ho hum.

Re 150 x 1 months rent, that means you expect to buy a place on a gross rental yield of 8%! Not likely in Sydney or Melbourne! More like 4% is the norm, so therefore multiply your months rent by 300 and you would get there.

As interest rates fall the numbers for buying property rather than renting stack up more and more. That factor plus the lack of supply will put a floor under prices and soon. I suspect that this current quarter and maybe the first quarter next year will in hind sight turn out to be the bottom for Sydney and Melbourne. SE Queensland and WA etc are running to a different cycle and may well fall a lot further and/or for longer before they bottom (as others have speculated), so it really depends which market we are talking about.

Re prices in more expensive suburbs, you have to be careful looking at just the median numbers, as the $2M+ market has been fairly dead, and therefore only the cheaper properties have been on the market, thus producing (primarily) the median downward change. It will be interesting to see figures for the $2M+ range this quarter actually as at least in Sydney a LOT of property in this price range has just come onto the market, so as those homes sell (or not) we will have a better handle on what that end of the market is looking like.

Cheers,

Beej
 
If you are talking about inner city, it is still going up.

I live in Fitzroy North and things are pumping here.

Single fronts cottages(3 bedrooms) renovated for 1.2 million just sold last week.
 
robots said:
hello,

yes fantastic figures, ST KILDa up 14.7% awesome, a lot of other suburbs banging it on too..

-3.3% compared to the SHock ExchANge at 30% now thats numbers

enjoy the day man

thankyou
robots
Click to expand...

G'day

With cash at call I can get +6.5%, zero risk. Better than paying interest on rented money and dealing with negative yield and asset depreciation. For now anyway. Timing is everything and as someone who has just sold out of the market I'm happy my capital is growing and my purchasing power is being preserved. Every asset class has its time in the sun.

Matronic, "most of us property types buy with cash..." lol, yeah, sure you do. Then you were missing out of negative real interest rates for the best part of 20 years. That's not how to make the most of your investment dollar.


goodluck
Indie
 
hello,

someone shouted "oh what about an annual return", make of as you wish,

http://data1.reiv.com.au/trendchart/default.aspx

indie, yes and how about the rent you pay after cashing out, always forgotten about isnt it, amazing

6.5%, take away tax, take away rent and presto HELL

and as a money renter life is getting better everyday with rates coming down again this week,

do they also go down on savings accounts?

thankyou
robots
 
yep ive noticed a few of the mud slingers keep forgetting how they pay for the roof over there heads or mention the figures involved in renting compared to buying and the asset that its building for the future as well as not mentioning at the end of day paying rent for ten years returns you 0 % ..

robots i have a task for you my good man .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, please or anyone actually provide some data for tasmania or a link regarding homesales at least , been searching cant fiind any charts or up to date data

thankyou in advance
 
say 300PW x 52 = $15.600 PA, divided by 12 =1,300 PM x 150 Your house should be worth $195,000
 

hello,

yes no worries nunthewiser, I am here to help and will do my best to investigate the data you are after,

maybe Smurf can give us some info there,

anybody else need assistance then let me know,

thankyou
robots
 

Ho hum indeed. What of the chances of that ever happening again in the next 30 years? Anyway the easy way to calculate 5% return is weekly rent and throw "000" on the end. Only properties with little chance of capital gain will give you that or more as prices jump and yeilds falls as buyers factor in expected gains.
 
Glen48 said:
say 300PW x 52 = $15.600 PA, divided by 12 =1,300 PM x 150 Your house should be worth $195,000
Click to expand...

$250 a week x 52 = 13000 PA...so the unit where i live should be $162.450

But old 1 bedroom units like mine...in this area sell for between 195.000 > 215.000

so your formula is a little out for Sydney.
 
These numbers are all over the place. Does this mean $5 houses in Albert Park within 9 months? No. They are either unreliable, or there is extreme volatility in the market, which can only point to further increases.

Albert Park dropped by a massive 39 per cent, from $1,525,000 to $929,000, followed by Armadale, which fell by 32 per cent from $1,477,000 to $1,005,000.

Canterbury, Elwood and Brighton also recorded drops of at least 20 per cent.

In contrast, the more affordable suburbs were least affected, and performed the best in the June-September quarter.

Fitzroy was a star performer, with the median house price jumping by 24.3 per cent from $643,750 to $800,000.

Beaconsfield increased by 23 per cent from $378,000 to $465,000, while Williamstown jumped by 19.3 per cent from $668,778 to $798,000.
 
hello,

http://www.reit.com.au/property_sales_data/market_activity

this is the Real Estate of Tasmania website, the reports are like those of Melbourne but not as up to date, look like you have to buy for latest

yes Mantronic, amazing stats, and humble St Kilda rocketing up by 14.7% for the quarter, what a return on investment, the numbers are just mind blowing down there by the seaside

even with all the skanks, pimps, hippies, crack addicts, walkabouts, yuppies, the place is still kicking

what a day

thankyou
robots
 
hello,

yes no worries, try Somersoft also

some real fanatics there and many subscribe to a lot of sites, rpdata, apm etc

thankyou
robots
 
instead of going for a rented house why not purchase it. Going for a rented house means your money is dead. You cannot do anything of that money if you are in need.
 

Robot, how many houses were sold in St.Kilda this quarter? And is that 14.7% up from last quarter, or 14.7% up from the same quarter last year? Just trying to gauge the statistics involved in those percentages..
 
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