House prices to keep falling for years

[nunthewiser]

hello,

welcome Mr Damage,

be very careful of people with vested interests who want RE prices to fall (typically the handout crew, whinners, bloggers, ghpc members, bludgers, free loaders, the guy out the front of Coles who wants a $1 of your hard earned)

sit tight man, in 20-30yrs when you have a roof over your head and you sitting back on easy street you will be high-fiving yourself while enjoying nirvana,

debt is on the way down so it will get easy and easy to keep that roof over your head,

thankyou
robots

Good mornin robots

just a quick question , um do you think that this new gift of 14k/21k combined with these intrest rate cuts will help my mission to sell a few blocks and 2 investment properties to some bushy tailed new investors in the near future?

thankyou

 

[MrBurns]

Do I think house prices will fall? I don't know...

What I do know is this - this is now more complex than simply multiplying the average wage by 3.

I've seen it all before in the early 90's prices dropped by 30% and the bubble this time is many times worse so it will drop and drop substantially.It's already started, houses that would have sold at auction are still sitting there weeks after, and this is in an inner suburb of Melbourne.
I think prices have come off 15% at least so far and it hasn't really started to kick in yet. No vested interest here I own 2 properties worth a lot........but less than 6 months ago. No debt so when it tanks I might buy more.
Give it 12 to 18 months.

 

[MrBurns]

Good mornin robots

just a quick question , um do you think that this new gift of 14k/21k combined with these intrest rate cuts will help my mission to sell a few blocks and 2 investment properties to some bushy tailed new investors in the near future?

thankyou

Yes Krudd has made it easier for you to sucker the poor unsuspecting first home buyers in.

Good to see he isn't "gilding the lilly" a term he borrowed from Paul Keating and has been parroting about in recent days when in actual fact thats all he's been doing.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes Krudd has made it easier for you to sucker the poor unsuspecting first home buyers in.
.

um , me personally am not "sucker" playing anyone actually , i have property , i want to sell property , they want to buy property

gawd bless a free market

gawd bless the goverment in stimulating the property market be it all maybe briefly .

oh also gawd bless captalism

 

[MrBurns]

um , me personally am not "sucker" playing anyone actually , i have property , i want to sell property , they want to buy property

gawd bless a free market

gawd bless the goverment in stimulating the property market be it all maybe briefly .

oh also gawd bless captalism

Wasn't meant to be personal, just that Rudd has done this and I cant understand the logic, I dont think he does either.

 

[numbercruncher]

wrong thread

 

[nunthewiser]

Wasn't meant to be personal, just that Rudd has done this and I cant understand the logic, I dont think he does either.

totally agree m8 , hardly gunna fix the problem lol quite funny actually .give em more money to buy a bigger house that they STILL cant afford blessim

 

[robots]

Good mornin robots

just a quick question , um do you think that this new gift of 14k/21k combined with these intrest rate cuts will help my mission to sell a few blocks and 2 investment properties to some bushy tailed new investors in the near future?

thankyou

hello,

not sure really, property has still been selling over the last couple of years,

jobs is the man issue and I think thats all the RBA is concerned about full stop so if the jobs keep up and the items you mentioned are on the fringes with a little bit of incentive,

number, dont they still say "your house is your biggest investment", this will still ring true in 20,30, 50 or 100yrs i would say

thankyou
robots

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

not sure really, property has still been selling over the last couple of years,

jobs is the man issue and I think thats all the RBA is concerned about full stop so if the jobs keep up and the items you mentioned are on the fringes with a little bit of incentive,

number, dont they still say "your house is your biggest investment", this will still ring true in 20,30, 50 or 100yrs i would say

thankyou
robots

cheers, yes a few worrys regarding unemployment seem to be popping up these days. who knows eh might get lucky




thanks for your response

 

[Kauri]

The UK Times is reporting that according to David Miles, chief UK
economist at Morgan Stanley a further 50 BP rate cut by the BOE could result in the UK housing slump ending as soon as next year. Miles said that if the BOE failed to cut, house prices could fall another 5% to 10% before bottoming out next year. The Times also reports that in a separate report, Andrew Clare, Professor of Asset Management at Cass Business School, gave a more dismal prediction, saying that house prices would slide by 40% and that property values would not rise to 2007 levels again until 2023. ..... so much for relying on the experts...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Mofra]

The USA had a shortage of houses and the UK also had a shortage of houses prior to their spectacular crashes. For example

The UK shortages were never qualified though were they? I haven't seen any links to articles that state actual numbers that are beliveable (the link provided doesn't state numbers) rather than broad estimates at best.

One of the bear videos available on You Tude mentions that in the US in 2006 there was enough construction activity to house almost 50% of the then population - ridiculous oversupply, especially considering the nature of demographic settlement is less tied to population centres than in many other Western countries.

 

[robots]

hello,

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/...shed/2008/10/289/catf_081015_103600_5549.html

another dropping, fantastic news

its on brothers with more on the way

thankyou
robots

 

[MrBurns]

The Federal Housing Minister, Jenny Macklin, says doubling the first home buyers grant will not push up the cost of housing.

First home buyers will now receive $14,000 to buy an established home until the end of the financial year.

Ms Macklin says it will encourage younger people to enter the housing market.

"We do want to give this support to those who want to get into their first home," she said.

"That's why we've made this decision and limited it for a period of time to really say to people, 'Now's the time to make that decision'."

What a freeking scandal, come on in young people, come on in just as we are about to go into the worst financial crises in our history, she ought to be locked up somewhere. It's disgraceful.

 

[gfresh]

Yes, will get sucked in hook line and sinker, to overpriced stock, and the dregs that haven't been able to be shifted for months. Then they'll see the value of their pride and joy gradually slide soon after purchase, especially in the outer suburbs where they're more likely to be buying.


Hello,

Stkilda development shelved.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/m...cuppered-st-kilda-triangle-20081014-50n9.html

REDEVELOPMENT of St Kilda's prized triangle could be the next victim of global economic turmoil, with the $400 million project apparently on the brink of collapse.

The project, led by the Citta Group, has sought and won an extension to the start date for work from the Port Phillip Council. The Age understands that no tenants have yet been signed for the project's 160 shops, restaurants and bars.

Wonderful news! Couldn't be better!

thankyou.

 

[finnsk]

Maybe this is in the wrong thread.
My understanding is that we are to a degree relaying on China to keep our economy going, one thing I do not understand is that in China they have been building all these new houses for all there people, but if they are only earning $100 per week how can they afford to buy/rent and i am sure the companies that build them wants a return on there investment.
Will that not put a stopper on there imports of iron ore? and therefor cool down our economy?

 

[MrBurns]

Yes, will get sucked in hook line and sinker, to overpriced stock, and the dregs that haven't been able to be shifted for months. Then they'll see the value of their pride and joy gradually slide soon after purchase, especially in the outer suburbs where they're more likely to be buying.


Hello,

Stkilda development shelved.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/m...cuppered-st-kilda-triangle-20081014-50n9.html



Wonderful news! Couldn't be better!

thankyou.

Agree on all fronts.

 

[MrBurns]

Maybe this is in the wrong thread.
My understanding is that we are to a degree relaying on China to keep our economy going, one thing I do not understand is that in China they have been building all these new houses for all there people, but if they are only earning $100 per week how can they afford to buy/rent and i am sure the companies that build them wants a return on there investment.
Will that not put a stopper on there imports of iron ore? and therefor cool down our economy?

I dont trust China anyway, they'll take our iron ore then make a bomb and drop it on us while the US is trying to squeeze more cash out of their exhausted Gold Amex.

 

[Beej]

is that your Guys life plan ?

Have a roof over your head within 20 to 30 years ?

What a sad waste ......

but if it makes you happy , whom am I to judge !

How about - stating the goal as having a REALLY nice, luxury roof over your head with enough room for your family, lot's of living space, landscaped gardens, pool, entertaining area etc etc, in a quality, wealthy area of one of the best cities in the world where everyone wants to live, with good schools and infrastructure all on hand. Plus own it outright so no rent or interest to pay, and all income earned goes towards investments for other lifestyle desires (sports cars, holidays, hobbies etc), and a financially independent retirement.

Does that sound better? That's how I see the goal.

Even if you choose to rent and have the discipline to invest in other sectors to achieve the financial benefits that owning your own house will provide, at some point in your life you will have to cash that in and buy a house anyway! Unless you want to still be renting and moving every 6-12 months when you have teenage kids in the local school, or are retired etc etc. And that's the point - everyone needs somewhere to live, and to a large extent where you live defines your lifestyle and quality of life, as you spend a LOT of time there!

PS: To MrDamage - good posts - read some of my posts on this thread for a different view than many of the responses you have got here already. Pay off your mortgage as quickly as you can, in a few years you will look back and realise you own an asset with real value and that you get to live in rent free while all the doom-sayers here will still be paying ever-increasing rent and still whining about how expensive houses are WHERE THEY WANT TO LIVE! There are plenty of cheap houses around of course but the guys here don't want to live in those areas!

PPS: When I heard about the increase in the FHBG I laughed and laughed! Tried not to come and read all the rantings that would produce on this forum but I couldn't resist Still sick of arguing here and have made all my points before - just add this grant increase to the interest rate reduction cycle and it's not hard to figure out what happens from here for FHBs.

PPPS: I noticed that all the negative mainstream press articles get posted here, but NONE of the more positive ones like this one: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydney-property-buoyant-in-slump/2008/10/08/1223145446496.html, which actually states how Sydney property is actually holding up pretty well. I have stated many times that I think Sydney is near/at the bottom now, but that Perth and other parts of the country etc are a couple of years behind the Sydney cycle. Those looking for 40% falls are living in fantasy land - this property cycle is just like the early 90s downturn and it is playing out exactly the same so far.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[MrBurns]

Those looking for 40% falls are living in fantasy land - this property cycle is just like the early 90s downturn and it is playing out exactly the same so far.

Cheers,

Beej

You must be joking there was no global financial crisis in the early 90's and property dropped by30% this will be 40% or worse .............

I think anyone talking about bargains now is in need of a reality check.

 

[Junior]

How about - stating the goal as having a REALLY nice, luxury roof over your head with enough room for your family, lot's of living space, landscaped gardens, pool, entertaining area etc etc, in a quality, wealthy area of one of the ........

Couldn't you apply the exact same arguments to property markets in the US and the UK?

If property is overvalued, in a bubble and at a record level of unaffordability...then it WILL correct back towards it's long term trend...it's just a question of how far and for how long prices will fall.