House prices to keep falling for years
- Thread starter Pommiegranite
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I found this article very interesting. No doubt there is plenty for both sides of the fence to take some ammunition for their argument.
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/09/04/global-property-bubbles-not-bursting
The housing bubble was not confined to the United States. If anything, the bubble here was later and smaller than in most of Europe. So it's hardly surprising that house-price declines are not confined to the US either. According to the latest Knight Frank survey, the year-on-year decline in New Zealand house prices is 2.2%; in Germany it's 2.5%; in the UK it's 3.9%; and in Latvia it's a whopping 24.1%, even bigger than the USA's 16.8% fall.
But more interesting, to me, is that globally, house prices are still rising, which is not necessarily what you'd expect to see in an article headlined "House price crash goes global":
Globally, the rate of house price growth fell to 4.8% in the second quarter of 2008, down from 6.1% in the first quarter of the year.
Yes, I know it can be confusing with all those negative words, but house prices are up almost 5% year-on-year, even including the US. (I'm not clear how the countries are weighted, though.)
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/09/04/global-property-bubbles-not-bursting
The housing bubble was not confined to the United States. If anything, the bubble here was later and smaller than in most of Europe. So it's hardly surprising that house-price declines are not confined to the US either. According to the latest Knight Frank survey, the year-on-year decline in New Zealand house prices is 2.2%; in Germany it's 2.5%; in the UK it's 3.9%; and in Latvia it's a whopping 24.1%, even bigger than the USA's 16.8% fall.
But more interesting, to me, is that globally, house prices are still rising, which is not necessarily what you'd expect to see in an article headlined "House price crash goes global":
Globally, the rate of house price growth fell to 4.8% in the second quarter of 2008, down from 6.1% in the first quarter of the year.
Yes, I know it can be confusing with all those negative words, but house prices are up almost 5% year-on-year, even including the US. (I'm not clear how the countries are weighted, though.)
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Where did you get this methodology from?
It is the methodology cited in the paper above.
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FWIW fin review said auction clearance in syd last weekend 44% down from 46% the week before.
Still not so bad - FYI SMH says it was 50% (and that includes counting the withdrawals as no sales): http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf
Some good results in there for vendors with realistic expectation (as is often the case!)
Cheers,
Beej
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anything less than 50% is shocking IMO ... nothing worse than a failed auction for a property ... better to withdraw.
Shouldnt even start an auction campaign without a clear idea of what price range reasonable bids are likely to be and an idae of whether you are happy with middle to low of that range.
Should be selling 60 -70% ... any less is just hail mary stuff on the part of owners and agents that proceed with iffy auctions ... like putting 10% of your house value on black at the casino.
It was once said under 60% is a buyers market/indicated falling prices.
But with these VOLUMES (just about nil in some better areas) its the worst ive seen in spring.
Might impove when the $40 a month saving get blown into a huge call to action ;-)
Shouldnt even start an auction campaign without a clear idea of what price range reasonable bids are likely to be and an idae of whether you are happy with middle to low of that range.
Should be selling 60 -70% ... any less is just hail mary stuff on the part of owners and agents that proceed with iffy auctions ... like putting 10% of your house value on black at the casino.
It was once said under 60% is a buyers market/indicated falling prices.
But with these VOLUMES (just about nil in some better areas) its the worst ive seen in spring.
Might impove when the $40 a month saving get blown into a huge call to action ;-)
How much does a failed auction set you back out of interest?
Noticed the new boards really going up in the last week, as the temp heats up, spring mood takes place. Number of new listings will be interesting to follow over the next month. A massive spike would be a worry, rather than a positive.
So the question is, where are these spring buyers going to come from? Maybe the realestate leprechauns at the bottom of the garden
pepperoni said:
Noticed the new boards really going up in the last week, as the temp heats up, spring mood takes place. Number of new listings will be interesting to follow over the next month. A massive spike would be a worry, rather than a positive.
So the question is, where are these spring buyers going to come from? Maybe the realestate leprechauns at the bottom of the garden
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New ABS housing finance data came out today. Looks like the trend is still down.
Source: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument
Source: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument
professor_frink
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Don't have any recent information on this, but the cost for my dad trying to sell his house at auction back in 2002 was well over $2K. This wasn't in a capital city either. Can't imagine it would be any cheaper to try and do in a place like Sydney.
Not a cheap way to find out that your house isn't worth as much as you think!
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Cost of the marketing campaign plus auctioneers fee - I think about $500 ish for auctioneers fee - marketing campaign depends on spend. In Sydney maybe around $4k - $5k for a typical sort of campaign (from memory). If going full page glossy colour adverts a bit more. If committed to selling an auction can still be an ok way to go imo but its important that the agent markets it properly, that the price expectations are properly set to match the market and that the property isn't too unusual (though with the right price expectation maybe this last point is debatable).
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Sadly the in experienced Vendor is pressured by the agent to "Sell at Market" on the day---often using phrases like.
"The market is telling us that $x is what its worth,our advice is you should listen"
Many fold.
But one statistic Ive not ever seen is those sales which take place on the property up to a month after.
From experience I know that a LARGE MAJORITY are sold after auction to buyers flushed out by the auction,many who bid un successfully return to the negotiating table---and yes I have seen many sold at above the original reserve---not reached at auction.
camkawa said:
Few mixed signals I guess in there. Could be worse. Non-bank lenders squeezed out another 8%
Just whipped up a quick long-term chart of the existing-dwellings trend series. The swiftness of the falls are the fastest in 30 years. Back to 2001 levels presently.
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Also brings the low ballers out in force ... upper range price becomes impossible, reasonable price becomes hard, and it sort of goes down from there each week as people reevaluate what its worth and what they could get back if they had to sell. After a few week pretty much best to call it quits till the failed auction is somewhat forgotten.
ALL IMO of course.
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Great graphs!
I think the volumes are more telling than the values
"In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance decreased 3.7%. The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance excluding refinancing fell 3.9%."
I think the volumes are more telling than the values
"In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance decreased 3.7%. The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance excluding refinancing fell 3.9%."
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The SBS's Insight program topic tonight is Bursting the Bubble for those interested at 7:30pm.
hello,
i wonder if they will put up a link to all the affordable homes on realestate.com.au?
thankyou
robots
Thanks, I'll definitely watch it.
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Yes ill be watching it.
Nice to see someone is finally giving the sheeple something to watch other than the block and auction squad.
Nice to see someone is finally giving the sheeple something to watch other than the block and auction squad.
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