House prices to keep falling for years

[KIWIKARLOS]

And while we are at it ...
Id hardly see .3% growth as the basis for great news to come ... being .4% off recession levels of growth and all.

Come on mate put in into context thats 0.3 for an annual average of 2.7% thats fr from recession hell thats good growth for a european country or even the US we were at nearly 4% a couple quarters ago.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Building straw man arguments does not bolster your case. Where were these doomsday forecasts for second quarter GDP? Can you quote one?

Personally I'm quite surprised at the speed of the slowdown here. It needs to be acknowledged that the mining sector is powering along but that is not enough to keep the economy from slowing significantly.

The real eye opener in today's GDP report was that Household Consumption Expenditures showed negative growth for the first time since 1993.

We have had 17 years of economic growth and those downturns of the graph occured in periods where growth was still overall positive.

 

[dhukka]

We have had 17 years of economic growth and those downturns of the graph occured in periods where growth was still overall positive.

Kiwi,

You really need to check your facts before you make claims like that. On the Household Consumption expenditures graph there are 5 quarters showing negative growth excluding the current quarter just completed. They were;

3Q90 -0.1%, 4Q90 -0.3%, 1Q91 -0.4%, 1Q93 -0.6%, 3Q93 -0.3%.

Here are the corresponding quarters of GDP growth;

3Q90 -0.5%, 4Q90 0.0%, 1Q91 -0.7%, 1Q93 1.2%, 3Q93 -0.1%,

3 of the 5 quarters showed negative GDP growth, one was flat and one positive so your statement is completely wrong. How about that list of OECD countries with 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth? Or did you make that up as well?

 

[dhukka]

terms of trade and balance of trade are two different factors. Yes in the last month inports increased whilst exports decreased. It was due to coal in particular qld has bad weather and two major coal exporting ports effected. Terms of trade refer to the price of ore. We are shipping more ore and are increaing and recently our prices rose 70-100% for coal and iron. We will reap the benefits for years the last figures were an exception.

I bought two years ago and I haven't lost a month ago a place 3 doors down went for $5K higher than what i paid. Yeah sure my house price stays even and inflation devalues it but I would rather have inflation kill my asset price then Have the asset drop capital cost. At least with inflation the lenders looses as well and not the owner, as inflation makes my repayments even cheaper and interest rates continue to fall im a happy camper considering the current climate. House prices or any asset price will always average increase in periods of stong economic growth, productivity growth and prosperity.

US REAL unemployment when you include people given up looking for work in 14% there deficiets are huge. The US is still the most productive country in the world and its economy is larger than the 3 next biggest combined. they are going through tough times but tey are far from terminal. I mean the strategic oil reserve alone at 700 Mill barrels is like sitting on $1 bill of oil.

Time will prove me right or wrong but i think we may see the start of a good recovery middle to late next year. Dont give up on oz just yet for a country of 25 mill we have one of the strongest (comparable) economies in the world. BHP and RIO are massive and only growing go the aussies!

I understand the difference between the terms of trade and the balance of trade, however those higher prices weren't enough to push trade into positive territory for GDP in the latest quarter. Next quarter will probably be a different story though.

I agree that relative to the rest of the developed world that we are doing OK. However the mantra about the resources sector saving the day may be wishful thinking given that roughly 90% of the economy relates to the service sector and that sector has been in contraction for 5 straight months.

 

[wayneL]

Update from the Ewe Kay:

From Times Online
September 4, 2008
Housing gloom deepens as prices plunge 12.7%
Dearbail Jordan

House prices fell by 12.7 per cent in the year to August, it emerged today, declining at the fastest rate since 1983.

Today's figure is above the 10.5 per cent annual fall recorded by Nationwide last month.

Halifax said today that house prices in the three months to August 2008 fell by 10.9 per cent, compared with same period last year, However, comparing August this year with the same month last year shows a much steeper drop of 12.7 per cent.

The average price of a house is now £174,178, just below the £175,000 threshold that qualifies homeowners for a year-long stamp duty holiday as part of plans, revealed by Prime Minister Gordon Brown this week, aimed at kick-starting Britain's stagnant housing market.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Update from the Ewe Kay:

Ouch.

Former VP at one of the local big banks here is predicting price falls on average of up to 20% within the next year. I'll be ready!

http://www.e24.se/branscher/bankfinans/artikel_673595.e24

Warning it's in Swedish, but it's not like you need a translation, the "song remains the same"!

 

[gfresh]

Story on the UK housing falls on Lateline business in a few minutes ABC.. might show how boyant housing markets can quickly reverse, for those who are skeptical it could ever happen here

 

[theasxgorilla]

Story on the UK housing falls on Lateline business in a few minutes ABC.. might show how boyant housing markets can quickly reverse, for those who are skeptical it could ever happen here

All the same, if you actually LIKE England and earn money either in Aust, on the continent or in the US then you might like to buy yourself a piece of UK property before too long...all of the aforementioned currencies are at exchange rate levels not seen since 1996/97.

 

[Kauri]

All the same,

not housing.. my abject apologies to all budding R/E tycoons... butt ASX G.. you are over thataways somewhere.. have you heard anyting along these lines???

talk of a possible takeover on TeliSonera by Vodafone for an estimated SEK 30bn. In July, TeliSonera rejected a USD 41bn takeover bid by France Telecom

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[theasxgorilla]

not housing.. my abject apologies to all budding R/E tycoons... butt ASX G.. you are over thataways somewhere.. have you heard anyting along these lines???

talk of a possible takeover on TeliSonera by Vodafone for an estimated SEK 30bn. In July, TeliSonera rejected a USD 41bn takeover bid by France Telecom

Cheers
............Kauri

I'm actually sitting here working at the OLD Vodafone Sweden right this second and no one seems to know anything. After selling their interests to Telenor some years back it would be interesting to find out if they planned to buy Telia Sonera.

 

[Kauri]

I'm actually sitting here working at the OLD Vodafone Sweden right this second and no one seems to know anything. After selling their interests to Telenor some years back it would be interesting to find out if they planned to buy Telia Sonera.

Big rumours.. unsuse.. unsubte.. unsubstnted.. WTHakk.. unproved... butt.. well, watch thier butt.. haill metinks I is overdue for the scratcher... good nite all... and apologies for any offence/offense tonight..
Slainte
..............kauri

 

[CamKawa]

Let's use the "ridiculous" report that Johnston Dixon has posted recently, so to let you know I AM NOT BIASED.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/files/JOHNSTON_DIXON_Report.pdf

I only read about half the first page. Didn't get much past this crap...

"Economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel, for example, is forecasting 20% growth for Brisbane over the next three years and 40% over the next five.
Forecasts rarely turn out exactly right but BIS Shrapnel’s ‘future demand based’ type forecasting has in the past proven prudent as a guide."

What Dixon doesn't say is that BIS Shrapnel has ties with LJ Hooker. lol Just a minor oversight from a property permabull I suppose.

 

[tech/a]

Saw today that Melbourne's population is expected to rise to 8 mill by 2056.

Bit of longterm growth and demand there.
Property still remains the longterm profit cow it always has been always will be.

But for those who dont own a chunk of it you'll ALWAYS get the multitude of reasons WHY they dont.

This thread is full of dumb arguement.
Those that are enjoying the ride and those who cant pull the trigger.
Good for a laugh every few weeks.

Back to work.(I'm a builder---a very happy one!).

 

[wayneL]

Saw today that Melbourne's population is expected to rise to 8 mill by 2056.

Bit of longterm growth and demand there.
Property still remains the longterm profit cow it always has been always will be.

But for those who dont own a chunk of it you'll ALWAYS get the multitude of reasons WHY they dont.

This thread is full of dumb arguement.
Those that are enjoying the ride and those who cant pull the trigger.
Good for a laugh every few weeks.

Back to work.(I'm a builder---a very happy one!).

Profit cow??

Yes - At the right price. I can be a loss cow as well as many "too late to the party" BTL investors are finding out right now.

However the folks that bought earlier at correct value are fine and collecting cash flow.

Dumb argument?

Yes, on both sides. Especially those that leap to conclusions (e.g. "those who cant pull the trigger") pfffffft

Gross generalisations are the preserve of the idiot. (both sides)

 

[noirua]

UK house prices have now fallen 12.9% in the last 12 months. As prices in Scotland have risen and falls in Northern England are lower, parts of the South have seen prices down 20%.
Key areas near major cities in Australia may well see similar falls shortly as the icy winds head for Australia, maybe.

 

[gfresh]

For anybody who wants to see the video story on the UK property market last night on the ABC. Probably not much of substance for those who occasionally reads the UK websites, however talking head predicts up to a 1/3 fall over there.

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200809/r289474_1236687.asx

All the same, if you actually LIKE England and earn money either in Aust, on the continent or in the US then you might like to buy yourself a piece of UK property before too long...all of the aforementioned currencies are at exchange rate levels not seen since 1996/97.

Have a UK passport, so can freely work in the UK... I am actually considering something along these lines in a year or two but will see.

 

[tech/a]

Profit cow??

Yes - At the right price. I can be a loss cow as well as many "too late to the party" BTL investors are finding out right now.

However the folks that bought earlier at correct value are fine and collecting cash flow.

Dumb argument?

Yes, on both sides. Especially those that leap to conclusions (e.g. "those who cant pull the trigger") pfffffft

Gross generalisations are the preserve of the idiot. (both sides)

Wayne.
I was a complete idiot when I bought property through the 90s and I'm a complete idiot when I buy/develope property now.

Frankly I dont mind being the idiot.

Seems I can hold the post in the trading arena just as well shorting both BHP and WPL---what an idiot!

 

[wayneL]

Seems I can hold the post in the trading arena just as well shorting both BHP and WPL---what an idiot!

If you couldn't short, would you "pull the trigger" and go long?

 

[dhukka]

Saw today that Melbourne's population is expected to rise to 8 mill by 2056.

Bit of longterm growth and demand there.
Property still remains the longterm profit cow it always has been always will be.

But for those who dont own a chunk of it you'll ALWAYS get the multitude of reasons WHY they dont.

This thread is full of dumb arguement.
Those that are enjoying the ride and those who cant pull the trigger.
Good for a laugh every few weeks.

Back to work.(I'm a builder---a very happy one!).

Tech,

Since you're a builder I would have thought you could contribute quite a bit to this thread rather than silly 40 year forecasts that will almost certainly prove to be wrong. How about some some real commentary from a man in the trenches?

 

[tech/a]

Tech,

Since you're a builder I would have thought you could contribute quite a bit to this thread rather than silly 40 year forecasts that will almost certainly prove to be wrong. How about some some real commentary from a man in the trenches?

I used to comment but there is no point. Which is obvious from the responses you see here and the comments I post up.

People including myself have their own views.
So be it.
Mine is simply one of Business.

If you couldn't short, would you "pull the trigger" and go long?

Dont get it---to deep for me.