House prices to keep falling for years

numbercruncher · 6 May 2009

Beej said:
The more median/average prices will fall yes, and perhaps values of houses in the areas where the majority of new homes are built. But prices of established houses in built-out established areas with all the infrastructure, proximity to CBDs, beaches, the best schools etc etc will only increase more as the more houses there are the more exclusive these established area's become.

So everybody wins!

Cheers,

Beej

Hello,

wrong again .....

Maybe you guys should get a job instead of relying on never ending equity ?

Lancelot · 6 May 2009

numbercruncher said:
Hello,

wrong again .....

Maybe you guys should get a job instead of relying on never ending equity ?

Now why would we want to do that?
Even you said we have

never ending equity

Though personally, I prefer the cold hard cash that my renters earn and pay me

Beej · 6 May 2009

numbercruncher said:
wrong again .....

Sorry but how is my statement wrong? As one of your state-compatriots once famously asked "Please Explain?"

Beej

singlefished · 6 May 2009

Beej said:
The more median/average prices will fall yes, and perhaps values of houses in the areas where the majority of new homes are built. But prices of established houses in built-out established areas with all the infrastructure, proximity to CBDs, beaches, the best schools etc etc will only increase more as the more houses there are the more exclusive these established area's become.

So everybody wins!

Cheers,

Beej

Well, to be honest, Sydney is stuffed then!

That's the biggest problem down there, lack of "efficient" infrastructure... but that's what happens when you let a city grow over many years without constant improvement and addition to existing facilities. The PRL Epping-Chatswood line was the first significant rail upgrade in 80 years or so....

Brisbane fares a slight bit better I find, the network of busways that have built up in addition to the existing rail network have made a huge difference, and the bus network now carries more passengers per day that the train system.

Obviously, Brisbane being a smaller city, it's easier to control and spend on especially with the huge amounts of money the govmnt has raked in from the mining boom. Still many deficiencies however but hopefully the stand out phrase in the forthcoming State and Com'w'th budgets will be "INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING!"

A good example outwith Australia would have to be Singabore... master planning "almost" done right. Too much control and regulation has left all but small parts of the island characterless, but the urban redevelopment authority over recent years have become aware of the issues and are addressing these problems. Public transport works a treat though and they almost have one of the few profitable MRT systems in the world.

These exclusive Sydney suburbs would be better described as isolated suburbs as that's how they'll remain for many many years... a lot of business and companies moving/have moved out of the city and west to the likes of Parramatta, cheaper rents/better working environment/etc...

CamKawa · 11 May 2009

Looks like not all the "property moguls" are living the dream.

Mortgage stress hits 25% of households

More than 1.3 million households are suffering mortgage stress despite low interest rates, a new survey has found.

Independent market analyst Datamonitor found that almost a quarter of mortgage holders are experiencing mortgage stress, with first home buyers who bought in the past 12 months especially vulnerable.

MACCA350 · 12 May 2009

What do other countries think about our housing market?

Bloomberg - Australia May Face Debt Crisis From Grants to Young Home Buyers

cheers

CamKawa · 12 May 2009

MACCA350 said:
What do other countries think about our housing market?

Bloomberg - Australia May Face Debt Crisis From Grants to Young Home Buyers

cheers

I saw that to. I think the best financial reporting about this country comes from o/s where the self serving interests of our government and spruikers, not just property ones, have little or no influence.

singlefished · 12 May 2009

CamKawa said:
I saw that to. I think the best financial reporting about this country comes from o/s where the self serving interests of our government and spruikers, not just property ones, have little or no influence.

... you better check the author and location at the bottom of the report...

MACCA350 · 12 May 2009

singlefished said:
... you better check the author and location at the bottom of the report...

lol......I missed that part, saw it on Bloomberg and assumed it was written by an American........oops

cheers

CamKawa · 12 May 2009

singlefished said:
... you better check the author and location at the bottom of the report...

I have thank you. What's the problem with a local writing the report?

CamKawa · 12 May 2009

MACCA350 said:
lol......I missed that part, saw it on Bloomberg and assumed it was written by an American........oops

cheers

Bloomberg is US owned so its editors aren't puppets on strings to either our government or local advertisers. The editorial influence is more important than who or where the article was written.

cutz · 13 May 2009

Just heard on Lateline biz that the ASX is launching a new product that allows speculators to short sell the Sydney housing market, shame they a not also launching one for Melbourne, i kind of like the idea of hedging my home against the continuing decline.

Aussiejeff · 14 May 2009

cutz said:
Just heard on Lateline biz that the ASX is launching a new product that allows speculators to short sell the Sydney housing market, shame they a not also launching one for Melbourne, i kind of like the idea of hedging my home against the continuing decline.

It won't last.

I predict a "temporary" ban on short selling in the housing market will be implemented shortly after this puppy leaves the kennel.

The "temporary" ban will last as long as the "temporary" deficits.

aj

satanoperca · 18 May 2009

http://business.theage.com.au/business/house-prices-to-fall-further-report-20090517-b7dv.htmlGood Morning,

Economists say house prices, which have already posted their largest yearly fall since the Great Depression, could continue plunging despite cuts to interest rates and the extension of the first home buyers grant.

National house prices are 7 per cent below their peak and have been less responsive than commonly thought to the level of joblessness, housing supply, and interest rates, RBS economists Kieran Davies and Felicity Emmett say.

Moreover, the drop has occurred despite much less sub-prime lending and over-building than overseas and a relatively modest unemployment rate of 5.4 per cent.

This influx of first-home buyers has meant capital city house prices fell a relatively modest 6.7 per cent in the year to March.

6.7% drop is only modest, but don't worry there are more drops to come.

To keep the thread going we woud need to see several years of these modest drops for the title to be substantiated.

Sun goes coming up over Melbourne city now, quite beautiful.

CamKawa · 18 May 2009

Rents for luxury property in Australia tumble

This may have a knock on effect further down the price line.

aleckara · 18 May 2009

Aussiejeff said:
It won't last.

I predict a "temporary" ban on short selling in the housing market will be implemented shortly after this puppy leaves the kennel.

The "temporary" ban will last as long as the "temporary" deficits.

aj

Why won't it last? I'm not sure about the structure of this derivative. If it is just like a futures contract then it won't really affect the underlying market -its more of a market of its own. More than likely it will allow people to get in and out of housing easier without selling it giving people liquidity without giving the housing market the liquidity it needs.

Short sellers need to be hedged against longs don't they? Otherwise they have to pay up. Unless someone hedges using real property (which would be hard considering taxes and so on) I don't see this being the next best thing.

What it will most likely do is move the losses from the owner occupiers scared of losing value to the speculators in tough economic times - this may help to support house prices as people are not forced to sell.

Glen48 · 19 May 2009

Today's ABC wireless reported how rents are down by 20% in Sydney and agents reporting they have never seen any thing like it..Some woman reported how she could not sell her house with out taking a loss so decided to rent it out until the market picked up and she is a Fund manager.... heaven help her clients.

singlefished · 19 May 2009

satanoperca said:
To keep the thread going we woud need to see several years of these modest drops for the title to be substantiated.

Don't worry mate, there's more chance of this thread substantiating it's title than the prices rising thread

You've already had >1 year of negativity and as mentioned on lateline business tonight, we're only just starting our recession after lagging the US and Europe for over a year.

I was put onto this through another forum a few days ago:
http://www.propertyinvesting.com/marketupdate/budget

Sound advice and analysis given the economic outlook.

CamKawa · 19 May 2009

singlefished said:
I was put onto this through another forum a few days ago:
http://www.propertyinvesting.com/marketupdate/budget

It’s Interesting that he points to the FHOG as being THE reason for house prices rising, so much for the spruikers "fundamental" arguments. I'm looking forward to this bubble bursting; it's going to be ugly.

On another note how about 747's hit in the opinion polls some say due to the rising of the retirement from 65 to 67. Where's Kev going to be when house prices start falling?

kincella · 19 May 2009

hehehehe... and that spruiker wants you to register for ???xxxx $$$$$, but you will save $2010 for his advice to you...but wait you get back $800 of freebies.....
sounds like a stick and carrot approach, rather than a carrot and stick approach......ps I did not watch his video...if its not in text then forget it...just an ego trip for him.... and be wary of bald men spruiking
...........................................whats this all about Hey ???
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You can jump to the front of the queue though by pre-registering. Pre-registration also allows you a saving of up to $2,010 plus you will receive a free bonus back (worth $852) after joining.

It's free and easy to pre-register your interest. All you need to do is provide your details below and click submit.

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House prices to keep falling for years

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

Lancelot

Beej

singlefished

CamKawa

MACCA350

CamKawa

singlefished

MACCA350

CamKawa

CamKawa

cutz

Aussiejeff

satanoperca

CamKawa

aleckara

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty

singlefished

CamKawa

kincella

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