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The thing that will make house prices collapse will be a recession and one will come around soon
House prices to keep falling for years
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Well, as houses have been used as an ATM in recent years, collapsing house prices may just be the major trigger for a recession.
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Alot of withdrawn properties this week and a few auctions pushed back 2-3 weeks one "waiting for the rate drop after which it willl take off again".
One sale in northbridge for $1.1m ... 2002 money.
Trouble is modern "boomenomic management" where govt/reserve panic when we are in anything but boom mode ... interest rate cute will help property short term but I dont think its a good idea.
Let people take medicine for a year or so and realise boom conditions are not the norm nor are they sustainable.
One sale in northbridge for $1.1m ... 2002 money.
Trouble is modern "boomenomic management" where govt/reserve panic when we are in anything but boom mode ... interest rate cute will help property short term but I dont think its a good idea.
Let people take medicine for a year or so and realise boom conditions are not the norm nor are they sustainable.
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Two houses near me have already been evicted. I'm guessing they were unable to make back payments.
I sign of things to come, i reckon
I sign of things to come, i reckon
pepperoni said:
Yes, was thinking must be a heck of a lot of properties being held off (or gave up winter, retry in a few months) until late spring with thoughts such as "just until the interest rate drop, sentiment will surely change then". However, I don't think sentiment will so rapidly reverse simply by a 25bps cut. There may be a quick burst of sentiment, but not sure how long it will last. After that has passed, many may be facing some growing reality that it may take quite a while to shift their property at a price suitable to them, which will be a drain on their own steadfast believe that their property is worth $x.
Interest rate cuts just signal that the problems have already started, they don't work as a quick cure-all, despite what the news ltd papers are trying to tell everybody..
Some reading for those in the West. Hard to know what's best, however this is encouraging, even though it comes from the ANZ.
View attachment 2008 July ANZ presentation The mother of all housing booms.pdf
View attachment 2008 July ANZ presentation The mother of all housing booms.pdf
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Some reading for those in the West. Hard to know what's best, however this is encouraging, even though it comes from the ANZ.
View attachment 23372
I love it - "It’s supply stupid!"
Pg 16 is great - Total returns ("Risk adjusted"?) for residential property is through the roof.
Everyone bail in. Quick, before it's too late.
What do you think, Robots?
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Oh my god what a laugh, page 36 is a classic. It's funny how it doesn't mention when house prices crash here so will the banks.Some reading for those in the West. Hard to know what's best, however this is encouraging, even though it comes from the ANZ.
View attachment 23372
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Actually, come to think of it, page 35 might be funnier. Check out the line they have drawn to the moon. lolOh my god what a laugh, page 36 is a classic. It's funny how it doesn't mention when house prices crash here so will the banks.
If the international experience is any guide, it won't make any difference. It doesn't matter whether interest rates are 10% or 1%. An overpriced asset is an overpriced asset.
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There are big differences between oz and the US / England / ireland / spain etc.
Firstly our banks are still highly profitable sure ANZ took a hit but overall the four pillars are very sound. Secondly we have quite large surpluses.
Then there is record company profits from BHP etc. Real unemloyment and inflation figures in the US are massive compared to the US.
Reasons why our house prices will remain as is if not grow in the next 5 years. We have massive amounts of immigration and are boosting temp working visa's etc, rates likely to drop,huge investments in infrastructure in all capital cities. Take Sydney for example Port botany is doubling in size with intergrated rail link to enfield, North west metro link (some say this is gov garbage but it will go ahead). the cost of transport will decrease as people simple shift from large to smaller vehicles, petrol prices are decreasing and if the world wide recession continues it could go much lower.
Inflation is at 4% but so is wage growth and in many sectors its much higher than that. Consumer spending is still high.
Sure there is signs of stress and weakness but realistically in Australia the downturn is no where near as bad as the rest of the globe. When a global recovery begins we will prosper even more.
Of particular benefit is the "education revolution" the benefits to the entire economy from this policy will be massive. Give it 3-5 years and we will reap the rewards.
Firstly our banks are still highly profitable sure ANZ took a hit but overall the four pillars are very sound. Secondly we have quite large surpluses.
Then there is record company profits from BHP etc. Real unemloyment and inflation figures in the US are massive compared to the US.
Reasons why our house prices will remain as is if not grow in the next 5 years. We have massive amounts of immigration and are boosting temp working visa's etc, rates likely to drop,huge investments in infrastructure in all capital cities. Take Sydney for example Port botany is doubling in size with intergrated rail link to enfield, North west metro link (some say this is gov garbage but it will go ahead). the cost of transport will decrease as people simple shift from large to smaller vehicles, petrol prices are decreasing and if the world wide recession continues it could go much lower.
Inflation is at 4% but so is wage growth and in many sectors its much higher than that. Consumer spending is still high.
Sure there is signs of stress and weakness but realistically in Australia the downturn is no where near as bad as the rest of the globe. When a global recovery begins we will prosper even more.
Of particular benefit is the "education revolution" the benefits to the entire economy from this policy will be massive. Give it 3-5 years and we will reap the rewards.
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PS we haven't baioled out anybody yet and I doubt we will.
Many prices in the outer burbs have taken big hits but in the 20km radius of the big cities they are still fundamentally looking good. Where living expenses are high the biggest falls will follow.
Many prices in the outer burbs have taken big hits but in the 20km radius of the big cities they are still fundamentally looking good. Where living expenses are high the biggest falls will follow.
Ahh yes of course, we're differrent down under aren't we.
hello,
yes, and which bank has been bailed out or had loss dhukka?
thankyou
robots
None that I know of, and since I didn't make the assertion that they had, I don't know why you are asking me.
Don't panic, permabulls. I'm sure the recent price falls are just a blip on the radar. The bottom has been reached. Australia is different and we live in an economic vacuum, thanks to immigrants and stuff. Talk of a looming recession is nonsense. Buy up a dozen more properties with 100% leverage, because 20% YOY gains will continue for the next century at least!
Don't panic, permabulls. I'm sure the recent price falls are just a blip on the radar. The bottom has been reached. Australia is different and we live in an economic vacuum, thanks to immigrants and stuff. Talk of a looming recession is nonsense. Buy up a dozen more properties with 100% leverage, because 20% YOY gains will continue for the next century at least!
hello,
please dont feed the troll, please dont
if you want to communictae then send pm
thankyou
robots
Some reading for those in the West. Hard to know what's best, however this is encouraging, even though it comes from the ANZ.
View attachment 23372
Oh my god what a laugh, page 36 is a classic. It's funny how it doesn't mention when house prices crash here so will the banks.
I got hold of a similar presentation from Suncorp at a recent CPA conference my brother attended. It basically came to the exact same conclusions as the ANZ presentation attached above.
It's always fascinating to see how much import people attach to the so-called 'experts' opinion. It's worth remembering that these are the same experts that did not see a credit crunch or a bear market in stocks coming. Why do we think they have it right this time?
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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:sleeping:
Heard all that and more over here.
However in the unlikely event that Oz housing is immune and indeed grows as per your scenario, the sociological effects will be extremely negative, as discussed elsewhere.
What sort of Australia do you want?
1/ An egalitarian country where all can participate in the "white picket fence" dream.
2/ A two tier "Victorian Britain" society where there is the landed gentry and the ipso facto serfs.
I know which I'd prefer.
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