House prices to keep falling for years

[Vizion]

:topic 41% to Aussie stock forum in the voting... must be the only thing going up :xmaswave

 

[explod]

There is a lot of philosophical stuff which at times moves off topic on this and several other threads that I visit. Would like to start a thread on a topic but can never wade my way into it. Can someone give me a clue as to how to start a thread.

cheers explod

 

[Aussiejeff]

There is a lot of philosophical stuff which at times moves off topic on this and several other threads that I visit. Would like to start a thread on a topic but can never wade my way into it. Can someone give me a clue as to how to start a thread.

cheers explod

Attend sewing classes?

:hide:

 

[explod]

Attend sewing classes?

:hide:

Can allways rely on you Aussie. I did start a thread called Doom and Gloom 12 months or so ago, nobody liked it and I am still patching the holes from all the flack.

So that bit of thread will come in very handy.

Houses, well, when they get old they pull em down and start again. Or was that house prices.

Gotta find that thread

 

[inenigma]

There is a lot of philosophical stuff which at times moves off topic on this and several other threads that I visit. Would like to start a thread on a topic but can never wade my way into it. Can someone give me a clue as to how to start a thread.

cheers explod

Any of the following work for me, except for two which I don't do...

• Drink more beer
• Smoke more dope
• Take more drugs
• Read Philosphy
• None of the above

 

[Temjin]

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/americas/2008/11/29/185434/Brazils-housing.htm

Brazil’s housing boom starts going bust
SAO PAULO, Brazil -- Just weeks ago, Brazil’s housing market was one of the world’s most dynamic. But now, the global credit crisis has set up housekeeping, and government efforts to stimulate buying are being trumped by consumers’ fears about the future. Through September, Brazil’s housing sector was on fire.

January-September sales of new houses and condos were up 25 percent from the same nine months in 2007, ignited by a rising economy, decades of pent-up demand, job growth, an increase in affordable mortgage loans and legal changes that improved banks’ powers to repossess property. The sales slowdown, which isn’t reflected yet in official statistics, has hit with sudden force. The nation’s largest homebuilder, Cyrela Brazil Realty, laid off 300 workers last month and lowered its sales estimate for the year by 25 percent. Shares of Cyrela and two dozen other publicly held homebuilder stocks have plummeted in recent weeks.

“Whoever thinks Brazil has decoupled from the world economy is talking science fiction,” said Cyrela director Luis Largman, in an interview at the company’s Sao Paulo headquarters. “We are being affected collectively.”

.....more

They say they have a massive 8 million unit housing deficit. They say their economy are the best amoung the emerging countries because of their resources and is decouped from the rest of the world. They say their houses have doubled in the last 5 years and expected to continue to do so. And they say Brazil is an unique country and should be immune from it.

And now....

Of course, Australia is still unique in this regards.

 

[numbercruncher]

Its different here, we have Kangaroos @!

 

[dan-o]

Theres an interesting article in this weeks BRW from Bernard Salt, demographer at KPMG, talking about how the baby boomers are about to start retiring and this is set to put downward pressure on house prices...

 

[wayneL]

Theres an interesting article in this weeks BRW from Bernard Salt, demographer at KPMG, talking about how the baby boomers are about to start retiring and this is set to put downward pressure on house prices...

Yes, the demographics bomb. A factor that hasn't been mentioned or considered for a while here. Bulls will like to dismiss it as a factor, but it certainly has potential to have an effect, undoubtedly.

Especially now as share portfolios have crashed and burned, and have little prospect of booming again in the medium term.

 

[basilio]

Certainly agree with Wayne on impact of baby boomer retirement. In fact I can only see a lot of red ink.

1) With share markets and all other investments butchered, the value of super funds, pension funds will be hurt and therefore any pensions reduced

2) With boomers retiring there will corresponding decreases in flows into super funds and increasing amounts of outgoings.

3) If Baby boomers have any significant outstanding debts ie house upgrades, loans against collapsing share portfolios, there will be serious problems with solvency. And that would lead to some forced selling.

And finally the impact of retrenchment itself will be a big blow.

 

[numbercruncher]

I see the RE shonks are joining the dole que, geting rather long that line now huh ?

BRISBANE real estate agents are packing up their for-sale signs and leaving the industry in droves, as tough market conditions put paid to the flash cars and golfing lifestyles of 2007.

Reports of agencies losing more than half their staff and veteran agents forced to retire early were backed by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), which painted a grim picture of an industry where only the most experienced and skilled agents would continue to make money.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/08/1228584685056.html


What field would ex-realestate shonks generally get into ?

 

[Glen48]

Open a business and call it Fincorp or time share must be about due for another run?
Pine trees Lima's phew get the wallet out.

 

[gfresh]

I see the RE shonks are joining the dole que, geting rather long that line now huh ?

What field would ex-realestate shonks generally get into ?

awww.. my heart bleeds, yes really it does. Used car salesman? Life Insurance? Retail Sales? Financial planner? Wealth Management? Oh, damn.. really?

"I've already seen a lot of agents leave but I think there'll be a lot more who won't come back to work after Christmas - they're just not making ends meet," Mr Secco said.

So of course the industry is expecting things to go better into 2009 it seems...

 

[MrBurns]

It's happened before and it's happening now, I've known salesman earning $500K PA during the boom, that's right salesmen not the owner of the business, they have their own PA's that they pay from their own pocket.

Now hard times are hitting they will disappear and the strong in for the long run agents will remain as the base in the industry.

Dont feel sorry for the high flyers where else can you earn that sort of money without needing to invest in stock, using just your gleaming smile and a bow tie.

 

[Aussiejeff]

It's happened before and it's happening now, I've known salesman earning $500K PA during the boom, that's right salesmen not the owner of the business, they have their own PA's that they pay from their own pocket.

Now hard times are hitting they will disappear and the strong in for the long run agents will remain as the base in the industry.

Dont feel sorry for the high flyers where else can you earn that sort of money without needing to invest in stock, using just your gleaming smile and a bow tie.

Why, Mr Burns!

Judging from your avatar, you went v.close to describing your goodself!

Me? Why, I errr... just sell Marshmallows!

Want some?

 

[ROE]

Its different here, we have Kangaroos @!

yeah it definitely different so it can be used in multiple countries....just state your differences

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/new...-prices-hit-the-wall/1381107.aspx?storypage=0

 

[Glen48]

Wonder how many agents brainwashed themselves and move up a few levels in the property market not realising there is no property boom but a credit boom?
Now sitting at home watching their house price go down.

 

[gfresh]

QLD State Government rapidly heading towards a massive deficit due to massive loss in stamp duty, pretty much screwed:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/09/1228584818896.html

Very sad how QLD (not the only one mind you) so much relies on homes being bought and sold to be even to be able to provide and maintain vital infrastructure. Now realestate boom is over it's falling apart quite quickly.

It's not a good way for this country to be.

 

[MrBurns]

QLD State Government rapidly heading towards a massive deficit due to massive loss in stamp duty, pretty much screwed:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/09/1228584818896.html

Very sad how QLD (not the only one mind you) so much relies on homes being bought and sold to be even to be able to provide and maintain vital infrastructure. Now realestate boom is over it's falling apart quite quickly.

It's not a good way for this country to be.

They also rely on poker machine revenue, that will go as well when things go real bad. I guess they'll just trim the fat ?

No way .....they'll raise taxes and cut services.

I believe Rudd is away AGAIN, saw him on the news waving from another platform atop a plane. Whats that got to do with anything ?, dunno just annoys me.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Theres an interesting article in this weeks BRW from Bernard Salt, demographer at KPMG, talking about how the baby boomers are about to start retiring and this is set to put downward pressure on house prices...

Demographics is increasingly becoming the predominate factor determining any investment decision I make for the long term. But it is debateable and could change.