House prices to keep falling for years

[explod]

Sorry but you don't trade property the same way you do shares. With this strategy the CGT would kill you. You would be better off sitting on the POTENTIAL loss and having rent coming in offsetting any REAL loss.

Was not talking about trading at all. I am talking about trends. Without looking at a chart we know that property has in the least levelled out and that the share market trend is down.

When one is just beginning it is good to learn to look and contemplate the world around one.

Sorry to appear so wrong to you Toobadfour

 

[2BAD4U]

That's quite alright. You are forgiven

Agree that if you are just starting out you need to look at the market as a whole. I believe also that we are at a point where many would be starting to consider entering the market.

I was thinking back to when I purchased my first house and I really didn't give a stuff about the Australian economy, let alone the world economy. All I cared about at that time was could I afford it, how much was it and what was the interest rate. That was it.

I think many people on this forum forget that they a probably a bit more savvy about money and the economy than what the average person is and perhaps we are all over thinking the situation a bit too much when there are a lot of people out there who simply don't care for most of what is written here.

 

[numbercruncher]

Its not just Melbourne house prices getting smoked, its the entire state !

VICTORIA is being hit harder by the global economic downturn than any other state in Australia, figures show, and the state's budget surplus has been cut in half.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/surplus-hit-by-house-sale-slump-20081203-6qo8.html

Robi's apartment is immune though, up 18pc in September I heard !

 

[robots]

hello,

my cafe latte had two sugars instead of the usual one today,

its gonna smoke the whole state, blah blah blah

can you pm your address and I will send that highlighter to you Numbercruncher

thankyou
robots

 

[explod]

I think many people on this forum forget that they a probably a bit more savvy about money and the economy than what the average person is and perhaps we are all over thinking the situation a bit too much when there are a lot of people out there who simply don't care for most of what is written here.

Accepted. We who share these discussions CARE and as the content is open to others we do ourselves credit if we can try to address all levels.

cheers explod

 

[lioness]

Explod, Are you saying the RBA will start raising rates by March next year?? If so why would they raise just after they have aggressively dropped them. Are you talking here or in Japan??????????

Explod, you ignored my question. Is it too hard for you so you just write some dribble to cover up your lack of knowledge??

 

[numbercruncher]

Explod, you ignored my question. Is it too hard for you so you just write some dribble to cover up your lack of knowledge??

Thats a bit harsh isnt it ?

Next youll be abusing him for not knowing a year ago that the RBA would be slashing at 1pc a pop ....

bugga me

 

[Nyden]

Explod, you ignored my question. Is it too hard for you so you just write some dribble to cover up your lack of knowledge??

What the hell? Leave the man alone lioness - he's on the mend from surgery, honestly ... The last thing he should be focusing on is justifying his opinions to a complete stranger on an Internet forum.

 

[explod]

Explod, you ignored my question. Is it too hard for you so you just write some dribble to cover up your lack of knowledge??

Sorry about that old Pal, only a few days out of hospital from a cancer operation so miss a few things yet.

The real answer is that I dont' know, the market itself will determine the answer to that. In my OPINION it will be realised the dropping of interest rates (pouring more fule on the fire) will not make things better, in fact worse. Some will use the relief to hedge by saving against it, others who cant pay it back will just borrow more.

The deflation taking place now is so huge that it will overshoot on the downside (ONLY IN MY OPINION MIND) and no bank, if they could because many are going to the wall, will want to lend to anybody at any price (Interest) These events are now happenning at breathtaking speed so surely it does not take a rhodes scholar to see we are at the end of the line and interest rates in a few months will begin to go the other way. I have many other thoughts but a bit tired as I write.

 

[lioness]

Sorry about that old Pal, only a few days out of hospital from a cancer operation so miss a few things yet.

The real answer is that I dont' know, the market itself will determine the answer to that. In my OPINION it will be realised the dropping of interest rates (pouring more fule on the fire) will not make things better, in fact worse. Some will use the relief to hedge by saving against it, others who cant pay it back will just borrow more.

The deflation taking place now is so huge that it will overshoot on the downside (ONLY IN MY OPINION MIND) and no bank, if they could because many are going to the wall, will want to lend to anybody at any price (Interest) These events are now happenning at breathtaking speed so surely it does not take a rhodes scholar to see we are at the end of the line and interest rates in a few months will begin to go the other way. I have many other thoughts but a bit tired as I write.

I disagree with you explod, they cannot drop rates so agressively and then 3 months later start raising rates???????? Rates are not an instrument to flip around as they have a lag time, they must be given time to work. The fact 3-5 fixed rates are dropping means they expect rates to stay down a few more years yet. Go rest now but come back with your thoughts on this.

 

[explod]

I disagree with you explod, they cannot drop rates so agressively and then 3 months later start raising rates???????? Rates are not an instrument to flip around as they have a lag time, they must be given time to work. The fact 3-5 fixed rates are dropping means they expect rates to stay down a few more years yet. Go rest now but come back with your thoughts on this.

Crap, the banks are privately owned and not an instrument of government. They have to go with supply and demand but they will paly along with government because it all allows money to flow back and forth on which they pick up a take on all movements. Read the history of the Rothschilds.

Go away and do a bit of basic learning

Could not sleep thinking about the poor education we have given many of you the last 30 or 40 years years.

 

[BigAl]

my cafe latte had two sugars instead of the usual one today

Must be the extra sugar the cafe is putting into your latte to mask the poorer quality coffee you're getting. Businesses must be cutting costs to offset their massive losses in real estate in St Kilda.

St Kilda: Glum one day, down 20% the next.

 

[gfresh]

I disagree with you explod, they cannot drop rates so agressively and then 3 months later start raising rates???????? Rates are not an instrument to flip around as they have a lag time, they must be given time to work. The fact 3-5 fixed rates are dropping means they expect rates to stay down a few more years yet. Go rest now but come back with your thoughts on this.

Depends whether you are talking the RBA cash rate, or the banks rates they pass on. The fact the banks are offering 3-5 fixed rates at attractive rates is because they can at the moment because short-term and some medium-term spreads have come down *for the time being*. The government's deposit guarantee has probably been the single most important thing that has allowed banks to pass on near the full rate cuts at the present moment in time. Without that, things would have been extremely messy already out there for us lucky Aussies.

There is no guarantee that they still will be able to, as they access a lot of longer-term funding from overseas, which is very volatile as anybody who reads the overseas news sources should know. To just assume that the banks can keep them at this level for the next few years is hope rather than any exact knowledge.

Now I'm not saying that they cannot, but to claim that it's not possible is ridiculous considering what the world financial markets have been through in just 12 months.. I think anybody even senior in the finance industry would suggest with 100% certainty rates will stay low for the next 6/12/18 months.

Do you work for a bank? Do you know their internal decision making processes in upper management? I know I don't, and I know that information is not freely available either for various reasons.

If you are saying you know that credit conditions worldwide are going to get better soon, or has stabilised permanently you would be ahead of most out there who are not brave enough to predict such things presently.

Could be many shocked mortgage owners out there if the unthinkable did happen next year, and the banks did have to raise rates to 7% when they were expecting sub 5% or whatever else they believe. Don't ever assume anything in life, especially when things are part of a global interconnected system. It's caught many off-guard already.

 

[chops_a_must]

hello,

robots your joints rocking because the foundations are being white-anted.

thankyou
ozziebots

Im turning japanese
I think Im turning japanese
I really think so
Turning japanese
I think Im turning japanese
I really think so
Im turning japanese
I think Im turning japanese
I really think so
Turning japanese
I think Im turning japanese
I really think so

First peak credit, now peak stupidity.

Posts I've scrolled through and re-posted for kudos!

No surprises to see some of the omissions.

I disagree with you explod, they cannot drop rates so agressively and then 3 months later start raising rates???????? Rates are not an instrument to flip around as they have a lag time, they must be given time to work. The fact 3-5 fixed rates are dropping means they expect rates to stay down a few more years yet. Go rest now but come back with your thoughts on this.

You mean like flipping rates down after hiking them up?

How on Earth did you get the job you did?

 

[Julia]

I disagree with you explod, they cannot drop rates so agressively and then 3 months later start raising rates????????

Can't they? Says whom?

Perhaps had not the RB raised rates so insistently the economy would not have been so stimulated as to require such reverse action at present.
Why can the reverse not apply yet again?

Rates are not an instrument to flip around as they have a lag time, they must be given time to work.

One would think so. Doesn't appear to be the case though, does it, given how rapidly rates are being slashed. No waiting to see the results at all.

The fact 3-5 fixed rates are dropping means they expect rates to stay down a few more years yet.

I doubt it necessarily means any such thing. If some miraculous recovery were to occur, they'd be back to upping rates again in a heartbeat.

Go rest now but come back with your thoughts on this.

Rather a peremptory command there, Lioness. Explod is to be congratulated on his courtesy to you in the face of this somewhat arrogant tone.

 

[wayneL]

An update from the Old Dart:

Property prices: Average house lost £31,500 of value in past year
House prices have fallen by 16.1 per cent in the past year, meaning the typical home lost almost £31,500 from its value, new figures show.

 

[numbercruncher]

An update from the Old Dart:

Property prices: Average house lost £31,500 of value in past year
House prices have fallen by 16.1 per cent in the past year, meaning the typical home lost almost £31,500 from its value, new figures show.

And for all the heathen's out there, that is over 70 grand in Banana bucks !

Alot alot of money after you pay your taxes and try save this .....

 

[lioness]

You guys are all missing the point here I am making.

How can you have deflation which is winning at the moment and high interest rates???

Think about the money supply issues being raised here and then you have your answer.

 

[explod]

You guys are all missing the point here I am making.

How can you have deflation which is winning at the moment and high interest rates???

Think about the money supply issues being raised here and then you have your answer.

Agree, the point you are missing is like the ebb and flow of the tide, usually it is gradual and steady, now we have a hugh tempest the tide withdrawing at an amazing rate (deflation) but at such an astonishing rate it will have to return just as visciously the other way. As the big part of the deflation has happenned in a short time the forces of the market in my view will see inflation like we have never seen suddenly hit.

The difficulty we are all having is not so mcu predictions but the sheer magnitude and speed that it is playing out. A good time to hold cash in my view till we see where the new GO is.

 

[noirua]

:topicOne of the most consistent forums these days and I hope you don't mind me reminding you, for the last time, about your opportunity to vote for Aussie Stock Forums at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html