House prices to keep falling for years

[chops_a_must]

Ohhhh, 10 degree sigma events happened, shouldn't happen in a billion years, it's impossible, but it did! doh!

Not to mention these "10 sigma" 1 in 100 year events, have happened 4 times in the last 25 years on the markets.

 

[MR.]

If I were Steve keen though, I wouldn't bet on it. Not that I don't faith in my own prediction, but I would be in a loss-loss situation even if I win. The public will hate me deeply for making such a gloom and doom prediction and would probably blame me for kick starting the "negative sentiment" that eventually become self-fulfilling.

Not just Steve Keen / The 7:30 report, but every media outlet kick started the negative sentiment. For weeks the media kept on going at it. My guess (hope) some of these reporters will now start feeling the pinch from their reporting.

Although it was going to happen anyway, the media in general did a bloody good job of kick starting the Australian property freefall.

 

[Naked shorts]

Not just Steve Keen / The 7:30 report, but every media outlet kick started the negative sentiment. For weeks the media kept on going at it. My guess (hope) some of these reporters will now start feeling the pinch from their reporting.

Although it was going to happen anyway, the media in general did a bloody good job of kick starting the Australian property freefall.

They are the ones who got everyone into property in the first place. Ever remember seeing "buy this area" segments on certain current affairs shows? I know i did, I also know i laughed.

 

[robots]

hello,

http://business.theage.com.au/business/nab-slashes-fixed-rates-20081128-6mr1.html

here we go brothers, gee down to 5.69% for 3yrs, awesome

hope everyone well, enjoy the night, thats all i am allowed to say

thankyou
robots

 

[CamKawa]

From tonights ABC news. Looks like the number of home loans has fallen off a bit.

 

[CamKawa]

Spot the bubble.

 

[robots]

hello,

just shows me people have woken up to the US, the biggest stooge country in the world, you only have to read ASF to see all the articles about the place

and welcome Australia, no 9mm required to go to the supermarket in Aus

thankyou
robots

 

[Vizion]

Your a funny person robots, I'm a tad confused though if your not into shares why you post so much... & I just cant decide if your serious or mad :bonk:

 

[Temjin]

Your a funny person robots, I'm a tad confused though if your not into shares why you post so much... & I just cant decide if your serious or mad :bonk:

We are all used to his comments, Vizion. It does make the thread a lot more interesting though. He really loves his own little "world".

But it's true that this is an AUSSIE STOCK forum, not real estate. Why isn't he venturing the Somersoft forum anyway? Lots of like minded people.

 

[sinner]

I think while I personally disagree with a lot of what robots says, to me it is more valuable to have available an opposite view to your own rather than everyone having the same view.

This is the house prices thread, not the stock prices thread.

Keep it coming robots, you're the property bull we love to hate :

 

[ROE]

Your a funny person robots, I'm a tad confused though if your not into shares why you post so much... & I just cant decide if your serious or mad :bonk:

How dare you suggest robots buy share, shares goes up and down, property goes up forever ..

 

[Beej]

From tonights ABC news. Looks like the number of home loans has fallen off a bit.

It's funny though how you state that the "number of home loans have FALLEN off a bit", when in fact what this chart tells you is that the RATE OF GROWTH of home loans (total value) has slowed - and yet is STILL GROWING. Ergo, there is still more total cash out there for housing purchases this year, than there was last year, and the same will apply next year etc....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Pommiegranite]

Australian panic reaches New York Times


http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?_r=1&res=9E04E5DC1238E233A25756C1A96E9C94639ED7CF

 

[Glen48]

I see in that article BHP shares were 15 pounds same as to days $30.00.

 

[professor_frink]

I see in that article BHP shares were 15 pounds same as to days $30.00.

Is there a point to that comment?

 

[Pommiegranite]

I see in that article BHP shares were 15 pounds same as to days $30.00.

Its irrelevent unless we know how many shares were on issue back then.

 

[IFocus]

Here is one for the Bot cannot say I agree today's Australian

Signs of recovery in property market

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24723428-601,00.html

 

[Beej]

Here is one for the Bot cannot say I agree today's Australian

Signs of recovery in property market

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24723428-601,00.html

The statistics presented in this article for October mirror exactly what I saw out there actually looking + selling and buying during Oct/Nov.

FYI - I'm looking at a unit in Sydney at the moment in a blue chip area close to harbour, CBD etc that is currently providing a NET (after costs) rental return of 5%. Given that there are fixed rates currently available at 4.99% (which from Dec I reckon you would be able to lock in for 3+ years), that means I could finance it 100% and be neutrally geared from day one. As rents increase it will turn quickly into a source of positive cashflow, with $0 up front capital invested by me. Plus being in a blue chip area of Sydney, I still believe that the long term capital growth prospects would be very good - at an absolute minimum inflation plus a bit, and at best a lot more than that. These are the sorts of opportunities that are out there RIGHT NOW if you get out and look - and given those numbers, I really can't see this situation lasting for too much longer.....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[IFocus]

The statistics presented in this article for October mirror exactly what I saw out there actually looking + selling and buying during Oct/Nov.

FYI - I'm looking at a unit in Sydney at the moment in a blue chip area close to harbour, CBD etc that is currently providing a NET (after costs) rental return of 5%. Given that there are fixed rates currently available at 4.99% (which from Dec I reckon you would be able to lock in for 3+ years), that means I could finance it 100% and be neutrally geared from day one. As rents increase it will turn quickly into a source of positive cashflow, with $0 up front capital invested by me. Plus being in a blue chip area of Sydney, I still believe that the long term capital growth prospects would be very good - at an absolute minimum inflation plus a bit, and at best a lot more than that. These are the sorts of opportunities that are out there RIGHT NOW if you get out and look - and given those numbers, I really can't see this situation lasting for too much longer.....

Cheers,

Beej

I think the risk is still to the down side in housing prices in some if not most sectors given we are yet to see the slowing world economy effects to fully flow into the Oz economy particularly rising unemployment.

This is more a realization for 2009 and maybe flowing into 2010.

The rapid fall in interest rates is also a guide to how nasty the RBA sees the future outlook and if they go for 1% next Tuesday then that's panic mode and IMHO time for risk aversion not risk seeking.

I think bigger opportunities will come up in 2009 / 10 and that there will be plenty of time to sort through them.

I just cannot see a driver for a rapid recovery which will primary need to be a freeing up of easy credit if any thing credit is likely to have a tighter set of regulations steming easey flow and limiting rapid credit expansion.

Guess as always we will just have to wait and see.

 

[IFocus]

I guy I know is trying to sell his property in one of the Rockingham areas here in WA and last week the paper advertised it by mistake a $100K less than the asking price.

He had already dropped the price significantly before this

There was not one inquiry.