HLS - Healius Limited

[Tarry Not]

To be honest, the broad strategy was to let any profits run. Notwithstanding that, I had and still have the idea that I'd look for a 'jump-out' point via a reversal as indicated by candlestick indicators. I always have a pretty firm (and tight) stop loss at purchase price minus 3%.

The smug one.

 

[brty]

Smugness is not something we should be doing in trading.

I also felt 'smug' with this one, which is one of the reasons I exited today. We have had 10-12 days in a row of rises, a move of 10% without a correction, and today a larger seller emerged (apart from me ), judging by the increase in volume, right at resistance.

I intend to re-enter at some stage, sideways to slightly down for a week or two would probably set up another buy point for me.

brty

 

[Unnamed User]

Go ahead feel smug...i like that smuggy feeling you me and brty got it right (short term) ROE and Unnamed User got it wrong, at least so far...still an easy 10% is a wonderful thing.

I would be interested to see what i got wrong?

The sp appreciation doesn't make my prediction of more bad news to come wrong and the closest thing i can see to me being wrong is where i said i wouldn't buy just yet, but of course i may be wrong on that and will gladly put my hand up if i am indeed wrong but atm i am neither right or wrong.

 

[ROE]

Go ahead feel smug...i like that smuggy feeling you me and brty got it right (short term) ROE and Unnamed User got it wrong, at least so far...still an easy 10% is a wonderful thing.

it's not a matter of right or wrong it something I wouldnt put money into
it in the first place so there is no loss or gained for me there ...

this stock can goes below $4 and I still dont want to put money into it.
It doesnt mean the stock wont make money or goes up...

Lot of stocks I dont buy make money or goes up 20% 50% or 100%

15-20 stocks or so I got so I missed out 1000 of other stocks but that
a deliberate decision..

it gives me no pleasure seeing people losing their hard earned cash
in any stock crash.....so if you make money good on you and hope everyone can get a decent return for their cash

 

[So_Cynical]

I would be interested to see what i got wrong?

The sp appreciation doesn't make my prediction of more bad news to come wrong and the closest thing i can see to me being wrong is where i said i wouldn't buy just yet, but of course i may be wrong on that and will gladly put my hand up if i am indeed wrong but atm i am neither right or wrong.

My reasoning for further falls, that may not happen of course.

Well so far your wrong, but of course you may well be proved right later down the road...or conclusively proved wrong :dunno: you posted in the negative and stated reasons for "further falls" and put forward a valid argument..however the last bottom has since proven to be just that "a bottom" the proved to be a good entry point for a quick and easy 10%
or so profit.

Now to be honest my target was a little bit higher than the mid 4.40's but i never took the trade anyway as the SP rallyed away from me.

________________

 

[Unnamed User]

Well so far your wrong, but of course you may well be proved right later down the road...or conclusively proved wrong :dunno: you posted in the negative and stated reasons for "further falls" and put forward a valid argument..however the last bottom has since proven to be just that "a bottom" the proved to be a good entry point for a quick and easy 10%
or so profit.

Now to be honest my target was a little bit higher than the mid 4.40's but i never took the trade anyway as the SP rallyed away from me.

________________

Maybe i should have been clearer in my viewpoint of further falls ( Although i was and you left it out of your quote ) but i thought it was clear as i was stating that when companies give profit downgrades they usually have another one or two that follow the original one.

Here is the full quote

My reasoning for further falls, that may not happen of course, is that generally companies that report downgrades very often follow up with another one or two.

Therefore my view for further falls wasn't for now but when either the company volountarily advises the market ( But considering they refused to give guidance this may not happen ) or when they are forced to next reporting season.

Of course since they have given no guidance, the market will have its own expectations and the sp will be at the discretion of those expectations, either positive or negative.

Well done to those who have made a profit so far, I hope there are many more to come for you.

 

[Tarry Not]

I don't come here often; as such I'm pretty new. I have to say, I am (only) slightly disappointed to see some of the antagonism within our community. Come on guys, can we make it a little more pleasant for us less tense about matters? If someone says something that grates on you or gets 'up your nose' in some way or another, wouldn't it be better to simply ignore it? I'm sure it would make for a more pleasant experience for all of us. After all, the stuff we are talking about here is not of earth shattering importance; is it?

As an aside, I just had to say that I sold my parcel of PRY on April 1 for a handy 9.28% net profit over the twenty days. Feeling rather chuffed at that.

Now; to see if I can make the week a complete success, I'm off to see if I can straighten out my drive.

Fore!!!

 

[Julia]

II have to say, I am (only) slightly disappointed to see some of the antagonism within our community. Come on guys, can we make it a little more pleasant for us less tense about matters? If someone says something that grates on you or gets 'up your nose' in some way or another, wouldn't it be better to simply ignore it? I'm sure it would make for a more pleasant experience for all of us. After all, the stuff we are talking about here is not of earth shattering importance; is it?

I don't see much antagonism in any personal sense. It's a forum: people come to exchange views. We can learn a lot by having our opinions challenged imo.

 

[So_Cynical]

I don't see much antagonism in any personal sense. It's a forum: people come to exchange views. We can learn a lot by having our opinions challenged imo.

Well he did say he was only slightly disappointed

I am (only) slightly disappointed to see some of the antagonism within our community.

Anyway i would like to think that i haven't discouraged anyone from sticking there neck out a little and actually having an opinion one way or another, as there's so many posters here who like the fence sit and make on committal posts when it comes to SP direction.

Tarry for the record i think you jumped to early, 4.60 something was my target...still 9% for 20 days is a good result...however one thing ive clearly noticed with my own trades over the last 18 months is that, if a stock is good for a fast 10% then its likely to be good for 15 or 20% over 40 or 60 days....IME

 

[brty]

Two interesting announcements on Friday. Firstly a value fund has emerged as a large shareholder, Harris Associates. They started buying at a price of $5.75 in December.

Secondly the managing director sold 4 million shares on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, about 11% of his holdings at prices ~$4.42-45.

The market has judged the sale of the MD shares in a poor light, currently trading at $4.18-19.

I am currently out of this and waiting to see if it gives a buy signal. The speed of the current downdraft negates this as a buy for me at support, until it slows to a meander.

brty

 

[So_Cynical]

Tarry for the record i think you jumped to early, 4.60 something was my target...still 9% for 20 days is a good result...however one thing ive clearly noticed with my own trades over the last 18 months is that, if a stock is good for a fast 10% then its likely to be good for 15 or 20% over 40 or 60 days....IME

Well PRY has returned back to trade under 4.09 today..have to say im a little surprised as i really did think it was good for a slightly higher high..but hey im a punter and haven't been having a good run lately so its prob to be expected.

Anyway the SP begs the question...is PRY good for another easy 10 or 12% :dunno: there's so many ranging stocks ATM, and perhaps PRY will go along and present many in and out opportunity's, at about this level over the next 4 or 8 months.
~

 

[brty]

I bought back into this stock on the close on Friday at 4.07. I've been waiting for the pullback.

Given the CEO and managing director has just spent a bit over $6m on options to buy this stock at $4 (expiring Oct 2010) and $5 (expiring Apr 2011), I would not expect much more downside, but happy to buy lower, the $3.60 I mentioned earlier if it were to get there.

brty

 

[Tarry Not]

It's with bated breath I watch for another opportunity. For me, there is just a little too much nervousness in the markets over the past few days, so I'm looking on. Rather hoping there may be an opportunity to 'launch' myself into PRY again at a little less than $4.00 - we'll see.

Your 40 - 60 day take is an interesting one, Cynical one. I'll watch more closely.

 

[brty]

Just dumped my shares in this, missed the high prices on Friday and the price has retreated way too quickly for me to stay bullish in the short term.

However I will continue to look for a new entry at lower prices as I am still bullish in the medium term. The CEOs options mean a price of ~$4.60 by October this year, and ~$5.30 by April next year for him to break even on the purchase of the options.

brty

 

[ROE]

Just dumped my shares in this, missed the high prices on Friday and the price has retreated way too quickly for me to stay bullish in the short term.

However I will continue to look for a new entry at lower prices as I am still bullish in the medium term. The CEOs options mean a price of ~$4.60 by October this year, and ~$5.30 by April next year for him to break even on the purchase of the options.

brty

Stock options is a scam, I be weary of company that offer option without regards for its cost.

he doesnt lose any money if stock doesnt get to that level, he just doesnt exercise them
so stocks give them all the upside but none on the down side .. great isn't it

stock options is a good incentives to give greedy executives to short change its long term shareholder...
by doing stupid stuff to increase short term earning and jack up stock price so they can exercise and
make profit long term shareholder will be the one that wear the consequences.

good luck

 

[brty]

Hi Roe,

I have gleaned the following from the ASX website, this is what is in the public domain..

From the pdf document lodged....

The persons named in Part 3 of this Form in respect to the dates 13 to 16 April 2010 have acquired call options for the numbers shown there for the payments shown there.....

The Grantor of the options Deutsche Bank AG.

I find it extremely unlikely that Deutsche Bank would grant options without payment when the statement to the exchange stated there was payment. These options are over issued shares, not "to be issued shares".

If you know of anything different can you please post it. You really shouldn't be calling it a 'scam' unless you have evidence otherwise.

Interestingly PRY came out with a 'similar' statement to SHL in that current profits would be affected by a slowdown in pathology, PRY opened down a few cents after the announcement compared to SHL that lost 20%. SHL appears to have been priced for perfection while PRY had already been hammered. All good in hindsight.

brty

 

[ROE]

Hi Roe,

I have gleaned the following from the ASX website, this is what is in the public domain..

From the pdf document lodged....



The Grantor of the options Deutsche Bank AG.

I find it extremely unlikely that Deutsche Bank would grant options without payment when the statement to the exchange stated there was payment. These options are over issued shares, not "to be issued shares".

If you know of anything different can you please post it. You really shouldn't be calling it a 'scam' unless you have evidence otherwise.

Interestingly PRY came out with a 'similar' statement to SHL in that current profits would be affected by a slowdown in pathology, PRY opened down a few cents after the announcement compared to SHL that lost 20%. SHL appears to have been priced for perfection while PRY had already been hammered. All good in hindsight.

brty

Ok maybe I over use the word scam, my apology but I wasn't targeting PRY
but it may come out across like that in a PRY thread

I was generalising it "I say be careful of company"...

I don't know much about PRY arrangement as I have no interest in it just playing devil advocates

but regarding to the call option there maybe a possibility the company pay for those call options and not individual ... worth a check?

 

[brty]

Couldn't help myself, bought a few thousand of these today. Will probably buy a few thousand more next week.

The share price is just meandering around these low levels. The large holders have been buying over the last couple of months, as per the substantial shareholders statements issued.

At a grossed up yield of over 10%, the MD having options that expire in October (at a strike price of $4), I'm happy owning this at these prices.

brty

 

[Julia]

Couldn't help myself, bought a few thousand of these today. Will probably buy a few thousand more next week.

The share price is just meandering around these low levels. The large holders have been buying over the last couple of months, as per the substantial shareholders statements issued.

At a grossed up yield of over 10%, the MD having options that expire in October (at a strike price of $4), I'm happy owning this at these prices.

brty

brty, where do you get the grossed up yield of over 10% from? E-trade is quoting the yield at 5.6%, fully franked, but that would only bring it to around 8% grossed up, wouldn't it? Maybe E-trade's figures are out?

 

[So_Cynical]

8.2% gross is what i make the last 2 divis to be at today's close..its hard to see the divi holding with the fall in revenue and profit that PRY have reported, the coming divi announcement will in all likelihood have a substantial impact on the SP....i came very close to buying some PRY earlier in the week.

---------------------------------

Edit: There last market update flagged a 10 cent final divi, so 25 cents for the year FF..grossed up its still under a double figure yield...just

http://www.primaryhealthcare.com.au...ame=Primary Health Care Limited Market Update