Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HLI - Helia Group

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Rainman said:
What it will prove is that, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine.
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But isn't today the long term of some days that have long passed? :p

Or is today + 1 year the long term of some previous days passed?


anyway, I'm holding a few stocks that's been down... but it's OK, it's for the longterm
 
The Falcon said:
12 months is hardly long term though.
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I agree. But I'm betting it will be long enough for GMA to revert closer to its book value at least.

GMA made $215 million last year. It will make more this year. And you can buy the entire company on the market now for a little over $1.5 billion. At that price, you get an investment portfolio of over $4 billion earning about $160 million a year thrown in.

There is only so long the market can remain irrational.
 
george-castanza-eating-popcorn-seinfeld-animated_zps8jbumanq.gif
 
Ahhh, this is where everybody is...move over Sam!
 
Rainman said:
Thanks for enlightening me. Sometimes the odds of a bet are just so good I can't help myself.
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So take it!

Stop yabbering

Hot air no action.

Doubt you can scrape
up a couple of grand.

Put your money where you mouth is
Promissory notes aren't worth the paper they are written on.
Man up.
Bet on!
 
Instead of betting, which is a bit "school yardish", why not both of you make an option play on it? Maybe there are no options on it, i don't know. I just think there must be some interesting way to express your views where we can all watch and learn something new?
 
Come on Can
Bets a bet it's pretty easy
Place it----watch
Doesn't have to be discussed
If Rainman amd I place the bet
Simple.I'm sending Joe 2 k Monday.

This Ducks no welcher!

Bets are made all day everyday.
It's taking a position with conviction
And supporting that view with a wager.
 
A bet has been placed in which a 1:1 payout has been agreed for a wager which is about 2/3rs likelihood of closing in Duck's favour.

That's interesting for quite a few reasons.
 
DeepState said:
A bet has been placed in which a 1:1 payout has been agreed for a wager which is about 2/3rs likelihood of closing in Duck's favour.

That's interesting for quite a few reasons.
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Rainman said:
Quite right. I am utterly broke.
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In all fairness, the wager amount should be an equal percentage of each person's net worth.

So please, can Tech/a and Rainman present to Joe by next Monday, audited financial statements and asset valuations by a Big 4 accounting firm, as of 30 Sept 2015.

I suggest the wager amount be set at 2% of net worth of each individual.
 
skc said:
In all fairness, the wager amount should be an equal percentage of each person's net worth.

So please, can Tech/a and Rainman present to Joe by next Monday, audited financial statements and asset valuations by a Big 4 accounting firm, as of 30 Sept 2015.

I suggest the wager amount be set at 2% of net worth of each individual.
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Bahahahahahaha! Pssssssst, this ain't gonna happen!:D
 
skc said:
In all fairness, the wager amount should be an equal percentage of each person's net worth.

So please, can Tech/a and Rainman present to Joe by next Monday, audited financial statements and asset valuations by a Big 4 accounting firm, as of 30 Sept 2015.

I suggest the wager amount be set at 2% of net worth of each individual.
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Tech/A may have much of the flock's wealth housed with his wife to protect against the prospect of creditors being brought in to recover his excavators. A wise thing to do. Hence, 2% seems far too low for him.

I also see no need for audited statements from one of the Big 4. After all PwC (they of the focus-group-tested 'little middle w' acronym) signed off on VET-AU's fabricated results. So what the heck? A small spivvy firm will do.

In any case, what's the point of placing at risk a mere single day's percentage move on the FTSE for something of such import as proof of superior investment ability on an anonymous website??? NOTHING!!! For the loser will be foreeeeeeever tainted with the knowledge that they lost...and everyone will know it. Everything will be tarred with, "yeah but..." Like Clinton, no review of his Presidency can occur without a stained little blue dress in the background of conversation. Any good call made will be lucky. Any bad call will be "of course, what did they know anyway?"

Tech/A may well need to retire the moniker and re-emerge as Foie Gras. Rainman might need to ask Joe to reboot him as Kimputer. Still, the legend of defeat will be forever on the ASF records.

This challenge should be settled as gentlemen did in the age when such things were important. I suggest the financial equivalent of an outright duel. 100% or nothing. To the broke I say. Perhaps even a year's worth of additional private services from the loser on top of that. Together with the book and movie rights.

Light 'em if you got 'em.


:sword:

----

Gamble like The Man:

2015-09-27 22_18_22-Kerry Packer, the Texan, the toss and the truth _ Crikey.png

...might be some tossing yet to come.
 
sinner said:
1 year is long term now?

I better adjust my models!

The way I have termed timeframes (based on testing about a hojillion trading strategies):

* Intraday
* Short term (<21 days)
* Medium term (<252 days)
* Long term > 504 days. I actually have a propensity to think valuations are most effective at >=5y region. GMO Capital bases their forecasts for 7y, Hussman and most others for 10y. Strong evidence for timeframes greater than that as well. I only say 2y as the minimum because of the old Graham exit rule of "exit at 50% profit or after 2y".
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Can you explain why you believe valuations are more effective in the 5 year region as you mentioned above ?

I look at Fundamental advisory firms and they try to value companies based on their current balance sheets , then add in the likely EPSG, what contracts they have and how much will be generated going forward etc,etc and based on that analysis will work out the likely share price going forward.

So to me a valuation would be easier working it out every 6 months or so??
 
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