HLI - Helia Group

[tech/a]

A CHART



I agree with short.

Ill post when I think--if ever that its a long.
For my own amusement no one else's.

Losing around 50% of its value in 6 mths
Something isn't right in paradise and the markets voting with
its wallet.

 

[Rainman]

A CHART

View attachment 64423

To answer your question why "if it's way undervalued, aren't 100s of others agreeing" with me: let me put this to you.

Suppose the "100s of others" that you are referring to are just like you. Then suppose they were all asked: How much is GMA worth?

You and the "100s of others" wouldn't have a clue.

That is the answer to your question.

 

[satanoperca]

That is the answer to your question.

Clearly Tech/A the market must be wrong. That is the answer or the fact that we are pumped full of cheap mortgage credit and their business model is based on that one asset class that they have insured against.

Then again, property values only every go up in Australia, sort of like believing a casino only has the colour black.

As for SKC and Sinner, read the first post I wrote regarding this thread, nothing to do with charts, but fundamentals. Geez, I actual gave you guys some credit but bias is blinding.

:dunno::dunno:

 

[Rainman]

Clearly Tech/A the market must be wrong.

So much waffle. Do a valuation of GMA and tell us how much you think it is worth.

 

[tech/a]

So much waffle. Do a valuation of GMA and tell us how much you think it is worth.

Who cares how much you think it's worth.

Clearly it's not worth more than $2.44

But hey delusion in ones ability to value ( above all other punters )
Is clearly brilliance.

Still it doesn't matter that your wrong
Only how long you stay wrong.

I'll check back in a month----see how that valuation v market sentiment is going.
Bet sentiments winning.

 

[skc]

As for SKC and Sinner, read the first post I wrote regarding this thread, nothing to do with charts, but fundamentals. Geez, I actual gave you guys some credit but bias is blinding.

My post is primarily about treating posters with different methods and opinion with respect. I hate to see people being driven away from this forum because they are mocked for offering their view.

I won't get drawn into any technical vs fundamental debate because I am not an idiot.

 

[satanoperca]

Only how long you stay wrong.

It took me many years and way to much cash in trading and business to understand this statement, but once I did, life became easier.

Maybe a drought will help Rainman understand the meaning of this statement to, but like myself, it may take years.

 

[satanoperca]

I won't get drawn into any technical vs fundamental debate because I am not an idiot.

It was just a fundamental debate, but like technical analysis, detail is king. There is no black or white, just shades of grey. I personally believe that like cooking, one just cannot use a single ingredient to make a great meal.

 

[Rainman]

Who cares how much you think it's worth.

Clearly it's not worth more than $2.44

With respect, you're simply not in a position to say that. Surely, as a T/A guy, even you would concede that.

By all means, wax lyrical about resistances and supports and break-outs. But don't pretend that you have any idea what GMA is actually worth. You just sound foolish otherwise.

I'll check back in a month----see how that valuation v market sentiment is going. Bet sentiments winning.

How about checking back in a year? Care to wager on that?

 

[Rainman]

I won't get drawn into any technical vs fundamental debate because I am not an idiot.

Wise. Possibly THE most sterile debate that one can have.

You can have a debate with some people on this forum about a stock and the debate is instructive - especially when the person disagrees with your investment thesis. They force you to go back, check your figures and reassess your assumptions.

But then there are others who disagree with you and they add zero value. They point to grey clouds and predict rain. Then they want plaudits when it starts raining - even (or especially) if it is just a dribble and quickly passes.

What value is there in pointing to a chart that is trending down and saying: "The trend is down"? Then the trend reverses and they say: "Look, the trend is reversing". Zero value.

 

[Triathlete]

What value is there in pointing to a chart that is trending down and saying: "The trend is down"? Then the trend reverses and they say: "Look, the trend is reversing". Zero value.

As I have said above in a previous post I also use both types of analysis FA/TA to base my decisions.

Now let us say your valuation is correct and it is an undervalued company and has plenty of upside then great I will keep this company on my watch list for now until I can see that the trend is starting to support the fundamentals.

Once this happens being knowledgeable about TA I will also work out the likely percentage rise this move is going to be and will then take a position on those predictions if this move shows profitability to me and that the odds are in my favour.

Currently though the move is down so we cannot see any previous support levels where it will stop and also this company does not have much data too analyse from a T/A view since it show May 2014 at $2.58 on a monthly chart as the beginning of its share market journey.

I will say that if we are currently on an EW C ??? ( maybe some of the other TA analysts could take a look and give there views here please) then I would expect that this move down could go to $1.86 but again as I said not much data as I like to have at least 5 years worth to give myself more confidence that I am correct.

 

[tech/a]

Nothing wrong with fundamentals particularly if you control the Company.
The problem I and others like me have with F/A is

(1) The time it takes for Valuation Models to be proven accurate.
(2) The time it takes to filter through Fundamental data.
(3) The accuracy of that data ( I have had 3 Companies Go broke on me ---- In the real world---as in Clients
who's books work according to VEDA was fine) Unless your on the board ---do you really know??
(4) The tendency for the market to be oblivious to professional Valuations.
(5) The wide range of accepted ways to value a company---often giving a different result.

Supported by others who understand

That's one concern... a fair chunk of the FY15 income will not be repeated next year so any valuation needs to take that into account.

Plus the fact that arrears / default rates are at historic lows. So it may be a case of "as good as it gets". A potential investor needs to determine earnings through the housing / default cycle and apply the appropriate "through the cycle" discount rate / multiple in their valuation model.

In summary - not an easy task.

Certainly T/A is also subjective---but for me--

(1) I know I'm wrong very quickly.
(2) I can be wrong far more often than right and still be profitable.
(3) I can analyse a chart in a few minutes.
(4) I can test theories.
(5) I have no attachment to my analysis---I don't have to be right--I welcome being wrong.

I don't see an argument when both types of analysis are mentioned.
I see variations in selected method. For any number of reasons.

What value is there in pointing to a chart that is trending down and saying: "The trend is down"? Then the trend reverses and they say: "Look, the trend is reversing". Zero value.

Ok Lets take GMA

I have been steadily building a position in it since it dropped below $2.70. It is now trading at just over 60% of book value.

So right now you've been building a position from $2.70.
We as Techies aren't---yet---(It may never be---to us) so even if your Dollar cost averaging your still below the figure at which you think it was a bargain.

So to your Quote above What's the value.
If we can indeed see a change in sentiment we should be able to do 2 things.
(1) Not lose as much as you.
(2) and or Profit more than you.
Both because our timing and nimble footedness---according to us---skews our sort of analysis in our favour.

How about checking back in a year? Care to wager on that?

Sure I love a wager and if wrong I actually pay up.(Ask Joe Blow).

But for me to participate I'm not saying your wrong---you may well be.
I'm saying F/A is as imperfect as T/A or any other form of analysis.

I'm happy to bet an amount of your choosing the winner paying Joe in support of his legal fund.
The trade/s must be real and have a brokers trail that can be verified by Joe.

I wage I will not lose as much as you or gain more than you trading or not trading GMA for 12 mths

That should add some interest in the thread!

Note there are no personal attacks here only my own opinion.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I won't get drawn into any technical vs fundamental debate because I am not an idiot.

 

[tech/a]

Its always the same.
F/A put up their point of view and if there is any view put up by T/A guys you get this.

Stick to your knitting, my friend. You're a technical analyst guy. You're not competent to comment on valuation - with respect

And the chartist will be following the new trend set by someone whom they have just mocked for not respecting the previous trend

Big +1 on this skc. You know what? Any random can screenshot a chart with some lines or whatever. The only interesting thing, the thing that actually builds a discussion is the fundamentals. What can a technician add to the conversation? Pretty much nothing, only an analysis of what happened in the past and unscientific predictions about the future that are only relevant in the context of a broader trading system and completely useless in the idiosyncratic sense.

The trend is down? Wow thanks for nothing. Tell me something I can't figure out from looking at a 6 month price chart for 3 seconds.

So much waffle. Do a valuation of GMA and tell us how much you think it is worth.

Then the classic

I won't get drawn into any technical vs fundamental debate because I am not an idiot

Unless your an F/A don't bother to comment---your an idiot to present anything different.

Love it!

 

[McLovin]

Then the classic



Unless your an F/A don't bother to comment---your an idiot to present anything different.

Love it!

Wow. Talk about misinterpretation. Sometimes I wonder (hope is maybe a better word) if it's deliberate.

 

[tech/a]

Wow. Talk about misinterpretation. Sometimes I wonder (hope is maybe a better word) if it's deliberate.

Mc Muddle
Exactly the way I feel about the snippets of quotes taken from the Fundies directed at the techies.
Difference is that I know its deliberate.

Its seen as Intelligence V Voodoo.

Why cant views be expressed without quotes like those above?

My post is primarily about treating posters with different methods and opinion with respect. I hate to see people being driven away from this forum because they are mocked for offering their view.

Start with your own clan!---Evidently your not idiots.

 

[McLovin]

Mc Muddle
Exactly the way I feel about the snippets of quotes taken from the Fundies directed at the techies.
Difference is that I know its deliberate.

Its seen as Intelligence V Voodoo.

Why cant views be expressed without quotes like those above?



Start with your own clan!---Evidently your not idiots.

"Fundies"? No. One poster. It's not exactly uncommon, and it tends to be newbies who have just discovered FA or TA. I don't really see the point of getting so worked up about what they say. It's not like I lose sleep because rimtas told me I have NFI. There are people on here, long time posters, whose opinion I respect, even if I might disagree with them. For everyone else it's water off a duck's back.

Try it. It's very liberating.

 

[skc]

Then the classic

I won't get drawn into any technical vs fundamental debate because I am not an idiot.

Unless your an F/A don't bother to comment---your an idiot to present anything different.

Lol Tech/A. Please interpret my post correctly.

What I said is I would be an idiot if I spend time debating TA vs FA (because it's time wasting and you'd never convince anyone).

What I am NOT saying is anyone doing TA is an idiot.

I am trying foster mutual respect... something you can definitely try sometimes.

 

[tech/a]

I am trying foster mutual respect... something you can definitely try sometimes.

All for it.

What I said is I would be an idiot if I spend time debating TA vs FA (because it's time wasting and you'd never convince anyone).

For me its a matter of presenting to some a method that they may not have considered.
Not trying to convince. I could be wrong but I thought I provided a checklist above of my
own personal reasons for selecting T/A not debating F/A V T/A just comparing preferences.

 

[Rainman]

Sure I love a wager and if wrong I actually pay up.(Ask Joe Blow).

But for me to participate I'm not saying your wrong---you may well be.
I'm saying F/A is as imperfect as T/A or any other form of analysis...

I knew it. Now the fudging starts.

Let's be clear: the card that you've constantly pulled on this thread (and not only on this thread) is: Why, if GMA is undervalued, is its price not going up? Ergo, it is not undervalued and any claim that it is undervalued is false because the chart shows that it is in a down trend.

That is the substance of your position. Now the problem that I (and others, it seems) have with it is that you then use it to club others over the head who have crunched the numbers and concluded that the market has mispriced the stock. Thus, we get:

Who cares how much you think it's worth... Clearly it's not worth more than $2.44

And yet the reality is that you don't have a clue how much GMA (or any other stock) is worth. But you claim, after another member has announced a position in a stock, that the fact that the stock has gone down at a particular point in time proves that the stock is not mispriced.

This is like someone arguing that your identification of a support line or a head-and-shoulders pattern is wrong because the company has just reported bumper earnings. By contrast, as the quote from you above shows, you're constantly advancing technical reasons why a fundamental claim is wrong.

Now, the bet is this: you've said above that "Clearly [GMA] is not worth $2.44". That is a claim made by you as to GMA's valuation. It is a fundamental claim, albeit based on technical analysis. Therefore, by your reckoning, the price of GMA should not exceed $2.44 in the next 12 months. If it does rise above $2.44 in the next 12 months, I win. If it does not, you win. That is the bet. It is simple.

Now put your money where your mouth is.