Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HLI - Helia Group

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Rainman said:
Now, the bet is this: you've said above that "Clearly [GMA] is not worth $2.44". That is a claim made by you as to GMA's valuation. It is a fundamental claim, albeit based on technical analysis. Therefore, by your reckoning, the price of GMA should not exceed $2.44 in the next 12 months. If it does rise above $2.44 in the next 12 months, I win. If it does not, you win. That is the bet. It is simple.

Now put your money where your mouth is.
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So this as usual is getting silly. :rolleyes:
 
that the fact that the stock has gone down at a particular point in time proves that the stock is not mispriced.
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Proves that the market doesn't agree with you that its mispriced.

And yet the reality is that you don't have a clue how much GMA (or any other stock) is worth.
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Yep don't care----I only care about what price I can get in at and what price I can get out at and make a profit or minimize my losses.

you're constantly advancing technical reasons why a fundamental claim is wrong.
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I am?

I think I'm reading market action you yourself agree I have no idea what any stock is worth---I freely admit I don't care. I care about what its trading at day to day.

Now, the bet is this: you've said above that "Clearly [GMA] is not worth $2.44". That is a claim made by you as to GMA's valuation.
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Well you thought it was undervalued at $2.70 now at $2.36 My argument is when is price really undervalued.
If your analysis is that good then the market would agree at $2.70 and surely by $2.36
Truth is the market determines price not a valuation by you or anyone else. Price may never agree with your valuation. Price may agree at sometime with your valuation. Ill see it when the two align. Ill even buy it if I think they align.
I wont sit in it waiting for the market to agree with anyone's analysis that its undervalued.

Therefore, by your reckoning, the price of GMA should not exceed $2.44 in the next 12 months
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If you deduce that from my posts Id hate to see what you read into a balance sheet.

I don't know if the stock price will finish above $2.44 in a year---nor do you.
But Ill bet I don't lose as much and or make more money out of the trade than you do.


That---is my bet.---I can do that by taking a trade today!!!---yeh yeh you can average down.

Come on lets do it.
Name your price.(Bet).
 
tech/a said:
I'll check back in a month----see how that valuation v market sentiment is going.
Bet sentiments winning.
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They are also your words.

You first offered to make the bet, not me. And it is a bet between, in your words, "valuation v market sentiment". You bet that sentiment will win over fundamental valuation. Sentiment currently says that GMA is not worth more than $2.44. You've agreed to a timeframe of 12 months. Those are the terms of the bet - all in your own words. It is that simple.

So stop trying to complicate things. Make the bet that you first offered to make.
 
Ok I'll play
$1000
it's lower than $2.44 in 12 mths.
If I lose Joe gets a grand.
If you lose you send Joe a grand.

Done?
 
tech/a said:
Ok I'll play
$1000
it's lower than $2.44 in 12 mths.
If I lose Joe gets a grand.
If you lose you send Joe a grand.

Done?
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On touch or on close? GMA also pays chunky dividend so that needs to be adjusted for.
 
skc said:
My post is primarily about treating posters with different methods and opinion with respect. I hate to see people being driven away from this forum because they are mocked for offering their view.
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Occasionally when researching a company I will come across a Google link to ASF and my anticipation of a changed culture and broader participation arises.

This site should be thumping along with stock discussion – a relevant marketing name and a good platform. So what’s the problem? I think the answer is in this thread and how it is representative of what happens on ASF.

As somebody who is interested in the likely long term cash flow generation of businesses as opposed to day to day gyrations of the market price, I must say NOT posting anymore on ASF is blissful.
 
craft said:
Occasionally when researching a company I will come across a Google link to ASF and my anticipation of a changed culture and broader participation arises.

This site should be thumping along with stock discussion – a relevant marketing name and a good platform. So what’s the problem? I think the answer is in this thread and how it is representative of what happens on ASF.

As somebody who is interested in the likely long term cash flow generation of businesses as opposed to day to day gyrations of the market price, I must say NOT posting anymore on ASF is blissful.
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Yet you still find threads and you cant help but post. I'm sure it generates some traffic.
This thread will get back on track very soon.

To add to my offer Ill also bet my bet of either losing less or profiting more that Rainman over the next 12 mths on this stock. Another ($1000)

Not only that Ill send Joe my $2000 on Monday and he can keep it even if I win as a donation towards his Legal Fund.

The only Caveat is Rainman does the same (He doesn't have to Give Joe his $2k(Unless he loses) just lodge it.(So he cant just disappear into cyber space) I'm sure Joe will refund it if he is successful in either.

Joe will report he has it in his account.

So win or lose ASF wins.

I'm sure Joe wont mind if others wish to back either competitor! Funds to ASF.

From here on my posts will be related to GMA
 
tech/a said:
Yet you still find threads and you cant help but post.
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Yes of course I'm sorry for posting.

It was just a heads up to Joe that people coming here to discuss stocks inevitably end up being subjected to an ego driven wank fest rather than an environment that fosters broad discussion.

tech/a said:
So win or lose ASF wins.

This might appeal to a few but I suspect overall ASF is the loser
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Back to my bliss.
 
craft said:
Yes of course I'm sorry for posting.

It was just a heads up to Joe that people coming here to discuss stocks inevitably end up being subjected to an ego driven wank fest rather than an environment that fosters broad discussion.



Back to my bliss.
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Carry on.
 
Rainman said:
I'll send it when/if I lose.
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Yeh but you could just disappear of the face of the planet.

If your serious just send a grand over other wise its just hot air.
Bets off if you don't part with your $$s
Joe will refund it----He has mine wether I win or lose!

skc

On close at the end of 12 mths GMA below $2.44---generous.
Although He thought it was undervalued at $2.70

Stop stuffing around your turn to put your $$s where your keypad is!

Try telling a bookie you'll pay him if you lose!!!
 
tech/a said:
Yeh but you could just disappear of the face of the planet.

If your serious just send a grand over other wise its just hot air.
Bets off if you don't part with your $$s
Joe will refund it----He has mine wether I win or lose!

skc

On close at the end of 12 mths GMA below $2.44---generous.
Although He thought it was undervalued at $2.70

Stop stuffing around your turn to put your $$s where your keypad is!

Try telling a bookie you'll pay him if you lose!!!
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I am good for it. Forfeiture of a year's worth of compounding was not part of the deal. I'll pay it if I lose. I promise you that.
 
I just want to point out that this so called wager is pretty idiotic all round and proves absolutely nothing regardless of the outcome (aside from the fact that y'all crazy).
 
sinner said:
I just want to point out that this so called wager is pretty idiotic all round and proves absolutely nothing regardless of the outcome (aside from the fact that y'all crazy).
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What it will prove is that, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine.
 
Rainman said:
What it will prove is that, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine.
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1 year is long term now?

I better adjust my models!

The way I have termed timeframes (based on testing about a hojillion trading strategies):

* Intraday
* Short term (<21 days)
* Medium term (<252 days)
* Long term > 504 days. I actually have a propensity to think valuations are most effective at >=5y region. GMO Capital bases their forecasts for 7y, Hussman and most others for 10y. Strong evidence for timeframes greater than that as well. I only say 2y as the minimum because of the old Graham exit rule of "exit at 50% profit or after 2y".
 
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