HLI - Helia Group

[skyQuake]

Combined ratio ~50%...Guess where that's going in a downturn. The general insurers have CORs in the low 90% to over 100%. This is basically a single event insurer My opinion is that residential property tanks it's going to be Australia wide. As long as everything is fine in residential property it will toss off cash. If mortgage foreclosures rise well then you better hope the actuaries knew what they were doing.

They started shifting away from the higher LVR which will help if we have a 'soft' landing. Time to talk to some actuaries and see if any hedge funds have been talking to them too!

 

[Rainman]

Combined ratio ~50%...Guess where that's going in a downturn. The general insurers have CORs in the low 90% to over 100%. This is basically a single event insurer: My opinion is that residential property tanks it's going to be Australia wide. As long as everything is fine in residential property it will toss off cash. If mortgage foreclosures rise well then you better hope the actuaries knew what they were doing.

All true. But property prices in your scenario really would have to tank and plunge mortgagors deep into negative equity, such that GMA's subrogated recoveries would leave GMA with steep unrecovered losses.

 

[satanoperca]

Regardless, your support for ASF has nothing to do with the fact that you talk down others who hold different ways of making money in the market.

It was a simple bet, no more, no less, not talking down, a bit of fun, to keep things interesting on the forum. It I was I who questioned Rainman thoughts on this stock as I felt, no T/A but F/A macro that sooner or later the property bubble in Australia would pop, well the chart told me that the market felt that way to, but mainly due to the fact we are the most overly privately indebted nation in the world with a crap load of land to build on and a pile of debt to go with it to. Thank-you Glen for the ultra low I/R's, how is that inflation going?. Mind you, I only trade on T/A, keeps me impartial.

What is a lot of money? Turing $30k into $360k over 7 years? I guess some might consider that mildly impressive for an amateur.

You try to be impartial, but still are insulting. “Amateur”. I don’t know about you, but $360K for the average Joe is a lot of money and have you shown in a public forum this type of return. Shucks, you would have laid down $3B and turned it into a trillion. Common, this is getting a little out of hand.
This has to be the funniest observation of human behavior, I simple bet was made, let it play out, a few more months to go and we will see who was right in this situation.

 

[Rainman]

... Agree Rainman is at times just as bad.

Show me one post of mine where I have ever rubbished a stock idea put forward by anyone on this forum because I consider the "fundamental picture" looks bad?

 

[McLovin]

They started shifting away from the higher LVR which will help if we have a 'soft' landing. Time to talk to some actuaries and see if any hedge funds have been talking to them too!

Yeah, they only provide info on the LVR at origination, not the current LVR of the insured loan. There's about $192b (total is $320b) in loans insured with an original lvr >85%. Obviously some of those would have moved to lower lvr's given the gains in the property market in the last few years. Still, all that is backed by $2.2b (less $125m if you rip out deferred acquisition costs) in equity and $950m in reinsurance. I'm not saying they're going broke, too hard basket for me, but I reckon the time to buy is after (if ever) the property market blows up.

 

[notting]

Bit of humility doesn't hurt anyone. I know, every time I try to write something!!!



On current action at this stage of the game, I'd be backing the downside if I had to.

Also I've not found Tech/a to be overly mean or nasty.
Just sharp.
Hardly anything to worry about, you can just state your alternative reasoning if you have some and time tells.

Punch line - it would be really funny of Joe and Tech/a were the same person. LOL

 

[skc]

Show me one post of mine where I have ever rubbished a stock idea put forward by anyone on this forum because I consider the "fundamental picture" looks bad?

I said you have at times guilty of "tedious snide remarks and childish taunting". Here are 2 examples.

In the interim, I want to watch you squirm.

Now stop being a pussy and make the bet.

You try to be impartial, but still are insulting. “Amateur”.

Amateur = non-professional. Tech/a doesn't trade for a living. Doesn't want to, doesn't need to. He's an amateur trader by definition.

If a professional trader made $330k over 7 years he would have averaged a bit under $50k a year. That is not good at a professional level. But it is mildly impressive for an amateur.

The point is... making some or lots of money (by whoever's standard) in the market using one method doesn't mean another method is worthless.

 

[Rainman]

I said you have at times guilty of "tedious snide remarks and childish taunting". Here are 2 examples...

Snide and childish I might be but tedious never.

 

[tech/a]

You can see the prices here for adjusted vs unadjusted for GMA.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GMA.AX

Still not a chart I'm visual

Clearly coincidental that you ran out of time at the precise moment that an error was pointed out.

Nothing Coincidental about it--It was and still is a clear decision.
Your pointing out of my error made 3 things crystal clear.

(1) I didn't have the time to devote to accurate recording
Let alone
(2) Having the time to devote to stock selection and trade explanation
(3) If I was going to do this I had to be able to commit 110% I couldn't so pulled the pin.

Thank you for your financial support for the ASF. But when you lose a wager on the forum and pay up to Joe... that's you losing a wager.

Well I pay my wagers--I've seen plenty with big mouths and no wallets.(in all walks of life)

Regardless, your support for ASF has nothing to do with the fact that you talk down others who hold different ways of making money in the market.

Read through this thread I haven't talked down anyone--I've presented my view in the face of a vehement believer in one form of analysis. my point is that Fundamental analysis is just as easily mildly accurate OR plain wrong as any other!

You may want to support ASF by making it a more friendly and constructive environment.

ASF doesn't seem to have the ability of supporting any counter view to some people.
If I'm attacked I'm not going to roll over like a Puppy who wants its tummy scratched.
You'll find the instigation of attacks doesn't come from this little black duck.

A simplest illustration of how TA and FA work. The shares were in a downtrend. The downtrend was created by people selling the stock who knows the share better than those who were buying. Those who were buying got their FA wrong. Those who were selling got their FA right. So can people please stop throwing out examples of TLS or Enron as how FA doesn't work and TA is superior. These examples at best only prove that right TA is superior to wrong FA.

So those buying stock in ANY down move are the smart ones?
If your a T/A trader trading long you would hardly ever be caught on the wrong side for any length of time.
If you get the F/A wrong you could be sitting there for years and never be right (The Fundamentals of the F/A change---either from internal or external influences).

Great to see.. although not sure what I am supposed to imply from this.

You don't have to trade professionally to make some decent coin.
99% of members on ASF don't/cant/or don't want to but wouldn't mind making some "Decent Coin"

What is a lot of money? Turing $30k into $360k over 7 years? I guess some might consider that mildly impressive for an amateur. But I think quite a few people will scoff at this comment - Minwa only made about 1/3 of that in a single month (and he uses TA too)... I know TA works in the right hands at the right times so you don't need to convince me of such.

Yes and like all in business he would have had his bad months. I doubt its the norm---you don't post up the jubilation of something normal!

Agree Rainman is at times just as bad. Everything you say about him applies equally to yourself. And any change in behaviour you wish to see from him... I wish to see from you.

Go back and read the thread---I'm placid until provoked.

I said you have at times guilty of "tedious snide remarks and childish taunting". Here are 2 examples.

Its hardly good/clever/meaningful debate.

Amateur = non-professional. Tech/a doesn't trade for a living. Doesn't want to, doesn't need to. He's an amateur trader by definition.

If a professional trader made $330k over 7 years he would have averaged a bit under $50k a year. That is not good at a professional level. But it is mildly impressive for an amateur.

The point is... making some or lots of money (by whoever's standard) in the market using one method doesn't mean another method is worthless.

So are 99% of those here.(Amateurs)

There is another metric--Time.

Systematic trading (eventually) takes a few hrs a week.

Discretionary way more that's why I only trade Futs every now and then (Usually when the misses watches
"Home and Away"). If you want to record everything from trade decision to the trade commentary to everything else then---post something meaningful--that takes even longer. Can get pretty boring as well.

So return for time spent is way better than 9-5 (For the average guy)

 

[notting]

Read through this thread I haven't talked down anyone--I've presented my view in the face of a vehement believer in one form of analysis. my point is that Fundamental analysis is just as easily mildly accurate OR plain wrong as any other!

I welcome the prickly comment about anything I write. I don't care how stupid it makes me feel, if there is a better opinion than mine I want to know it.

You don't have to trade professionally to make some decent coin.
99% of members on ASF don't/cant/or don't want to but wouldn't mind making some "Decent Coin"

Yes and like all in business he would have had his bad months. I doubt its the norm---you don't post up the jubilation of something normal!
Systematic trading (eventually) takes a few hrs a week.

Now this is the sad bit.
Like I pointed out at the time, "It was only the beginning" If you had stuck to your system, spent a bit more time on it and used real money, I reckon you would have doubled it and still be going strong. Better than your other business I reckon!. To save time you could have just said I'm done with explanations I'll just put the trades up. Up to you.

So you should get Netflix, introduce your wife to breaking bad, game of thrones and house of cards. That should keep her tied up whilst you make a squillion. (home and away. How we suffer!)

Personally I think markets are getting a bit like - mums and dads all finally getting in all relaxed and happy to take the yield, pros happy to be selling to them!

Doubt GMA will be going any where far over the medium term.

 

[tech/a]

Better than your other business I reckon!.

Not even remotely close.

 

[sinner]

What is a lot of money? Turing $30k into $360k over 7 years?

I have seen this claimed about the techtrader thread multiple times by tech, but I have never been able to verify.

From my understanding, it was $30k plus $70k margin loan, so the return from trades is actually more like 260% return over 7 years (~15% per annum, after margin costs I assume, otherwise not much better than market return) than the 1200% return that "turning $30k into $360k" seems to imply.

Still an impressive return of course, but should be considered in light of the overall market regime for those 7 years as well.

 

[Miner]

some extract from Bell Potter Research
Genworth Australia is a high-risk play on the Australian housing market,
which is unlikely to crash.
Two reports attached - apology if they were uploaded in the past.

 

[tech/a]

I have seen this claimed about the techtrader thread multiple times by tech, but I have never been able to verify.

From my understanding, it was $30k plus $70k margin loan, so the return from trades is actually more like 260% return over 7 years (~15% per annum, after margin costs I assume, otherwise not much better than market return) than the 1200% return that "turning $30k into $360k" seems to imply.

Still an impressive return of course, but should be considered in light of the overall market regime for those 7 years as well.

Will reply to this query on this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?p=870168&noquote=1

 

[tech/a]

Will reply to this query on this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?p=870168&noquote=1

OOOPs try here

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1560&page=3&p=909880#post909880

 

[Rainman]

some extract from Bell Potter Research
Genworth Australia is a high-risk play on the Australian housing market,
which is unlikely to crash.
Two reports attached - apology if they were uploaded in the past.

Thank you for posting this.

 

[piggybank]

Given that I don't have a clue about Financial Analysis (and only slightly more about Technical Analysis) can anyone give me an idea (or two) what the following financial information can tell us about the health of the company - I assume present health cannot be given as the information is only up to 2015? After all I suppose as an outsider, one can only work out the figures twice a year when the company releases the 1st & 2nd half results to the market

Btw, it would be nice if someone who has Stockdoctor in their armoury, could give us their (Lincoln Indicators) opinion of the stock presently

​

Regards
PB

 

[Rainman]

Given that I don't have a clue about Financial Analysis (and only slightly more about Technical Analysis) can anyone give me an idea (or two) what the following financial information can tell us about the health of the company - I assume present health cannot be given as the information is only up to 2015? After all I suppose as an outsider, one can only work out the figures twice a year when the company releases the 1st & 2nd half results to the market

Btw, it would be nice if someone who has Stockdoctor in their armoury, could give us their (Lincoln Indicators) opinion of the stock presently

View attachment 67043​

Regards
PB

Ask tech/a. He knows all about this kind of stuff.

 

[Triathlete]

Btw, it would be nice if someone who has Stockdoctor in their armoury, could give us their (Lincoln Indicators) opinion of the stock presently

Regards
PB

Here you go piggybank...


Strategic Comment

GMA is in a Satisfactory Financial Health position (GR1), but fails our management assessment criteria (GR2). While the company's dividend yield is currently well above the broader market we are concerned around the sustainability of this yield and risks generally in the lenders mortgage insurance industry. As such GMA cannot be considered a Star Income Stock.

 

[tech/a]

SKC

The chart originally posted IS adjusted.

In fact it shows GMA is performing far worse than it was a year ago!!

This Chart Posted 9 mths ago



This chart posted last week!



Clearly adjusted