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HLI - Helia Group

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Triathlete said:
Here you go piggybank...


Strategic Comment

GMA is in a Satisfactory Financial Health position (GR1), but fails our management assessment criteria (GR2). While the company's dividend yield is currently well above the broader market we are concerned around the sustainability of this yield and risks generally in the lenders mortgage insurance industry. As such GMA cannot be considered a Star Income Stock.
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Firstly, I apologize for not having replied sooner to thank you for your kind reply. However, given that I have never been a user of Stockdoctor (I don't know what the parameters are of their methodology) all I know is that they are very successful in sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

Secondly, I presume - reading between the lines - that although GMA isn't a Star Income Stock, it isn't a bad stock either and isn't one to necessarily avoid presently? or am I mistaken?

I look forward to your reply.

Thanks once again.

Regards
PB

P.S. Nice chart - as always Tech/a
 
piggybank said:
Firstly, I apologize for not having replied sooner to thank you for your kind reply. However, given that I have never been a user of Stockdoctor (I don't know what the parameters are of their methodology) all I know is that they are very successful in sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

Secondly, I presume - reading between the lines - that although GMA isn't a Star Income Stock, it isn't a bad stock either and isn't one to necessarily avoid presently? or am I mistaken?

I look forward to your reply.

Thanks once again.

Regards
PB
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They use a number of parameters, but basically GMA comes under the financial model;

Market cap above 200 mil

ROE; above 14%

EPS; above 14%

There are a few more parameters but they are some of the main ones. Currently these are not met by GMA

We all have our own way in analysing stocks and then taking a position.
I personally like to use a combination of Fundamentals and then enter and exit based on the Technical signals if it is to become a medium term holding.

If I am trading I do not put to much on the fundamentals as I am just speculating on the price movement

When I take a look at a GMA fundamentals I need to see if the EPS is growing going forward and in the case of GMA this is not the case at this point in time so do not see the price going up any time soon if you were looking at a medium time frame holding.

I will also add that even if the fundamentals look really good using stock doctor I never take a position unless the chart backs up the fundamentals.

A good example here currently is BKL....it is one of their star growth stocks, undervalued by around 26% to its fair value but the stock has been moving in the wrong direction.

Once the market begins to support it again then I may take a position for its current value and growth potential but not yet.
 
Triathlete said:
They use a number of parameters, but basically GMA comes under the financial model;

Market cap above 200 mil

ROE; above 14%

EPS; above 14%

There are a few more parameters but they are some of the main ones. Currently these are not met by GMA

We all have our own way in analysing stocks and then taking a position.
I personally like to use a combination of Fundamentals and then enter and exit based on the Technical signals if it is to become a medium term holding.

If I am trading I do not put to much on the fundamentals as I am just speculating on the price movement

When I take a look at a GMA fundamentals I need to see if the EPS is growing going forward and in the case of GMA this is not the case at this point in time so do not see the price going up any time soon if you were looking at a medium time frame holding.

I will also add that even if the fundamentals look really good using stock doctor I never take a position unless the chart backs up the fundamentals.

A good example here currently is BKL....it is one of their star growth stocks, undervalued by around 26% to its fair value but the stock has been moving in the wrong direction.

Once the market begins to support it again then I may take a position for its current value and growth potential but not yet.
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Hi Triathlete,

Thank you once again for informing me (and other members) of some of the other parameters stock doctor as to offer. It was very insightful reading on how you (and I presume many other investors do) in the methods/criteria you use in going about purchasing a stock(s).

Anyone care to guess where it will bottom out?

BKLs.jpg​

Cheers
PB
 
Said Id be back if I found something of technical interest
I have and will post a chart tonight.
 
Technical view

GMA 3.gif

Currently $2.44 looks remote but that maybe different
in a few weeks. Will be dependant on forward trading.
 
Nice bounce of support today.
Not looking like it's about to collapse.
Still a little oversold in the short term as it's support is also syncing with 200 day moving average.
Would have been a good entry this morning for short term bounce toward 2.80 which it needs to break for medium term if 10% ff dive isn't enough for you.
I should have been paying more attention.
 
I think that because a dividend is coming up in 59 days and forecast to pay 15.36% and 100% franked is one reason we are seeing interest in the stock at the moment.

So people need to start getting in for the 45 day rule.

Once this passes I think we will see the stock move back down in price.
 
Triathlete said:
I think that because a dividend is coming up in 59 days and forecast to pay 15.36% and 100% franked is one reason we are seeing interest in the stock at the moment.

So people need to start getting in for the 45 day rule.

Once this passes I think we will see the stock move back down in price.
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Update ......DY 8.49% & Grossed DY 12.12%
 
GMA triggered a technical buy (For my analysis) today.

It didn't trigger yesterday so the setup for position sizing and risk
can be a little different to that which I suggested.

The suggested setup would be considered conservative.
Using a few ticks below yesterdays low as the stop point would be
considered more aggressive.

Ill post a chart to clarify tonight.
For all of those who are un interested.
 
tech/a said:
GMA triggered a technical buy (For my analysis) today.

It didn't trigger yesterday so the setup for position sizing and risk
can be a little different to that which I suggested.

The suggested setup would be considered conservative.
Using a few ticks below yesterdays low as the stop point would be
considered more aggressive.

Ill post a chart to clarify tonight.
For all of those who are un interested.
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:xyxthumbs

Sudden jump in volume, next day jump in price and volume maintained. Yep, agree, not sure about that "un" though Tech.

On financial fundamentals though, "brextit", I'd stand watching till end of the week.
 
Its not something that would be on my radar as a trade.
But I did say that if I saw anything interested related to THIS stock Id post it.
So until I nick off in 3 weeks Ill see what evolves.
 
My more aggressive trade would be closed now.
The less aggressive one open.
 
Tech/a, we are still several weeks out from the anniversary of our bet and GMA is up by 25% over the period. If you include the 22% return to shareholders by way of special dividends and capital returns, the return is closer to 50%.

Not bad, wouldn't you say, during a time of very high volatility in equity markets as well as a well-publicised campaign of predictions of an imminent property crash in Australia.
 
After 12 mths

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GMA 4.jpg

Railman's silence indicates a result worse than he would have liked.
This will get him back!
 
tech/a said:
Railman's silence indicates a result worse than he would have liked.
This will get him back!
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Time can be the Fundamentalists best friend or worst enemy. Only time will tell. Fundamentalists might live longer lives. :D
 
tech/a said:
I don't know if the stock price will finish above $2.44 in a year---nor do you.
But Ill bet I don't lose as much and or make more money out of the trade than you do.
That---is my bet.---I can do that by taking a trade today!!!---yeh yeh you can average down.

Come on lets do it.
Name your price.(Bet).
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tech/a said:
Ok I'll play
$1000
it's lower than $2.44 in 12 mths.
If I lose Joe gets a grand.
If you lose you send Joe a grand.

Done?
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Rainman said:
Done.
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Since this date GMA has paid shareholders 79.8cents in capital returns and dividends and 19.6cents in franking credits.

That's a 40.7% return on $2.44

24th was the 12 month anniversary. It closed at $2.71 on the 23rd or $2.68 on the 26th
 
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