Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HLI - Helia Group

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Rainman said:
They are your words.

The bet is that in 12 months the price of GMA is higher than $2.44. It is simple. Now stop being a pussy and make the bet.
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This is The bet nothing more nothing less.

Before I post a chart

Answer the question

Has your valuation altered
Is the stock still a buy
Hold or sale?

At $2.70 it was undervalued
At $2.44 and lower it was even better buying
Today at $2.70 is it still a buy?
 
tech/a said:
This is The bet nothing more nothing less.

Before I post a chart

Answer the question

Has your valuation altered
Is the stock still a buy
Hold or sale?

At $2.70 it was undervalued
At $2.44 and lower it was even better buying
Today at $2.70 is it still a buy?
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FIGJAM ,The site has been nice and friendly since you left for the 10th time
give it a rest.
 
GMA things that might be of interest fwiw


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sval62 said:
FIGJAM ,The site has been nice and friendly since you left for the 10th time
give it a rest.
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Let me get this right.

Any question related to the way this guy has analyzed GMA is seen as
Confrontational?

He has presented his thinking I'm questioning his current thinking as
He has very clearly decided that he needed to draw a line as he called
It at $3.10

So is GMA still fundamentally undervalued.
Simple non confrontational answer required and expected.

The reaction has been so good I might just hang about.
 
tech/a said:
... He has very clearly decided that he needed to draw a line as he called
It at $3.10
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As I said earlier, tech/a, I am prepared to let the bet play out to the market's close on 25 September 2016. In the interim, I want to watch you squirm.
 
sval62 said:
FIGJAM ,The site has been nice and friendly since you left for the 10th time
give it a rest.
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It's alright, sval62. I only wish that there were more people like tech/a willing to take the other side of my trades.

To adopt and adapt a remark of Kerry Packer's: You only get one tech/a in your life and I have had mine.
 
Rainman said:
GMA is a financial business. The two most important metrics are tangible book value per share and return on equity. I would put earnings and earnings growth a distant third and fourth respectively.
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That is a bit of a contradiction as earnings is obviously a component in calculating return on equity. Without knowing earnings you can't know the return on equity. Also earnings growth if it occurs due to retained earnings adds to future tangible book value per share. So if you are look at what net tangible asset value will be in the future then earnings growth is important. It seems illogical to me to rank the importance of metrics which involve common inputs and effect each other.
 
Value Hunter said:
That is a bit of a contradiction as earnings is obviously a component in calculating return on equity. Without knowing earnings you can't know the return on equity.
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I didn't say earnings was of zero importance. I said it was of lesser importance. There's a difference.

Value Hunter said:
Also earnings growth if it occurs due to retained earnings adds to future tangible book value per share. So if you are look at what net tangible asset value will be in the future then earnings growth is important.
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The income generated by an insurer's investment portfolio will do that anyway. To that extent, an insurer does not need earnings growth for its book value to grow. The income generated by the portfolio and reinvested will do grow book value anyway.

Insurers frequently go into run off, i.e. they cease writing new business and so cease generating premium income, and they are still able to grow their book value for this very reason.
 
This thread is increasingly getting off-topic and personal and there is no need for it to go down that road. So let's get back to discussing GMA please and leave all the insults and provocation behind.

For the record there have been a number of posts by several people removed from this thread and nobody has been specifically targeted. I can only remove over-the-line posts when I see them and sometimes when threads get nasty or go off-topic I don't see it right away, especially on weekends.
 
Joe Blow said:
This thread is increasingly getting off-topic and personal and there is no need for it to go down that road. So let's get back to discussing GMA please and leave all the insults and provocation behind.

For the record there have been a number of posts by several people removed from this thread and nobody has been specifically targeted. I can only remove over-the-line posts when I see them and sometimes when threads get nasty or go off-topic I don't see it right away, especially on weekends.
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Good work Joe. Who says you do not read during weekends. Today is Sunday and tomorrow a public holiday in WA too .:)
I have purchased GMA through IPO and sold out with a good quick profit and do not hold.
Reading some of the nice and not so nice postings and predictive behavior of GMA scrip price, my :2twocents
With previous closing price of $2.8, PE 7.93 and yield more than 9% by comparison it is running excellent IMO.
what we need to consider that there is a change in housing sales and hence mortgages/mortgage insurance. So GMA is driven by industry weakness. Their margin is however very good and with consolidation the share price at current level once again good.
I am watching GMA and DYOR
 
Miner said:
Good work Joe. Who says you do not read during weekends. Today is Sunday and tomorrow a public holiday in WA too .:)
I have purchased GMA through IPO and sold out with a good quick profit and do not hold.
Reading some of the nice and not so nice postings and predictive behavior of GMA scrip price, my :2twocents
With previous closing price of $2.8, PE 7.93 and yield more than 9% by comparison it is running excellent IMO.
what we need to consider that there is a change in housing sales and hence mortgages/mortgage insurance. So GMA is driven by industry weakness. Their margin is however very good and with consolidation the share price at current level once again good.
I am watching GMA and DYOR
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I would just add to this that GMA has a combined ratio below 50%. In the insurance business, that is exceptional.
 
Technical view

Click to expand.

GMA 1.jpg

Back in September.
Unless something of
interest pops up in the
mean time.
 
tech/a said:
Technical view

Click to expand.

View attachment 66992

Back in September.
Unless something of
interest pops up in the
mean time.
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Just to show you how meaningless this chart is: if you had held GMA through September 2015 to now, you'd have earned a 22% return in an environment of 2% bond yields and where the market is down around 3% over the same period.
 
tech/a said:
I need this why?
It will change/changes the T/A?
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As far as I understand - chart reading, is analysing the behaviour of market participants and how they respond to certain levels and patterns. This behaviour is being constructed minute by minute by both fundamental and technical and systematic and mum and pa traders. The fact that certain participants are willing to transact in GMA at a certain level AFTER it has gone through capital return indicates that they are valuing it higher than if they traded at that same level BEFORE the capital return.
Therefore, the stock holding that level shows a higher level of strength IMO.

tech/a said:
Coming from 2 F/A's??
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I think it's pretty obvious that skc is more than an "FA".
 
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