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Hey!! Nice chart if you hold some!!
Foster Stockbroking initiates coverage on PVD. Target Price $1.50ish
The way they come up with their share price is very, very conservative based on the actual numbers. 10% COS is used where 30%+ is what D&M have forecast from the seismic. Not to mention that almost every other figure used seems to be much lower than what you'd expect. I suppose playing it super safe is what saves you from having angry investors if things fall short. There is N1 Brewin who are yet to make an upgraded target price.
If the trend continues, then we can expect another jump in the SP when/if their report comes out. The last two reports release times both lined up nicely with the spikes in the SP. Thats just my observation however.
Hartleys Limited - Pura Vida Energy NL said:We believe it is safe to assume that PVD will achieve a farm-out (given the quality of the acreage, size of the prospects, DHIs, multiple play types, increased activity in the region) that will result in drilling within 18 months (possible sooner). Given this, let’s explore the parameters around potential uplift and chance of success. Toubkal has mean potential for 1.5 billion barrels of oil and PVD will conservatively retain a 30% working interest post farm-out. This means that the potential value on success, net to PVD @ $10 per barrel, is $4.5 billion dollars. So, if we assumed that chance of success was 10% (1/3 of the D&M estimate), that would imply that a valuation of $450m ($5 per share) pre-drill would constitute an even money proposition. This is for Toubkal alone.
We have increased our price target from 113cps to 188cps. PVD is a Buy.
That is bewildering - $5. And now it sits at 70-ish cents and already it has doubled. Will it do it again? Are these guys serious or do they write this to sell stock? I guess another couple of months will tell...
Looking at the past four days of action sees some profit taking. No point in questioning whether this was a coincidence with the news releases of course.
Nevertheless the key point of holding this stock if for farm out and then drilling, not for broker reports, and looking ahead for the month should deliver. Volumes show sell down to a more reasonable trajectory without a crash.
Looking for a return of buying and at this stage I am assuming that this selldown/lack of buying is primarily an attempt to accumulate more at a lower price possibly by larger neighbours through various houses.
CTP's response to farm out whispers has already seen 22% - is the deal done ?
ENCOURAGING PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF DROP CORE ANALYSIS
Pura Vida announce that preliminary analysis on the cores acquired by Pura Vida’s drop core program has identified several cores that require further analysis to verify micro seepage. The survey was undertaken by specialist group TDI-Brooks International.
Many of the cores requiring further analysis are clustered around the location of our Amchad prospect as well as our largest prospect, Toubkal, which has an estimated mean resource potential of 1,507 mmbo.
Further analysis, including biomarker analysis for hydrocarbons, will be undertaken by Geomark and Geochemical Solutions International (GSI) in Houston. This analysis enables the origin and typing of hydrocarbons to be determined. These results are expected to be available within 2 months.
Anyone know whether the big storm in the US is likely to cause any delays to the further analysis of the cores? Was Houston affected?
September quarterly said:Planned drilling activity offshore Morocco
As a result of the significant activity occurring around the Mazagan permit, we now expect that at least 6 wells will be drilled in 2013/14 by Pura Vida and our immediate neighbours (Kosmos, Genel and Cairn).
The planned drilling operations represent a substantial and unprecedented investment in exploration offshore Morocco. The heightened level of drilling activity has very positive implications for the Mazagan permit and validates Pura Vida’s early entry into a substantial acreage position offshore Morocco.
New venture opportunities
Consistent with the Company’s strategy to build a diversified portfolio of oil and gas assets, Pura Vida is continuously reviewing new venture opportunities. The Company’s focus is on early entry opportunities onshore and offshore Africa with significant growth potential.
Closed at 69c, down almost 16%. Seems the market is all about buy on rumour and sell on news lately. Look at TPT, suffered the same fate. Lets hope PVD have the same gameplan to fill the gap between now and the drills with more projects or farm-ins.
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