Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HHR - Hartshead Resources

Jump to new
mr. jeff said:
Your valuation is wrong.
The fall is to be expected as there is not much happening with PVD at the moment. Come drilling time, things should heat up - the coming well offshore Morocco is very interesting and would be a company maker if all goes well.
It might be an opportunity to get in on the lows and sit on it for a little while...
Click to expand...


Thanks for your comment, when you state the valuation is wrong, what do you mean? The calculation of multiplying the number of barrels by the NPV per barrel, OR the use of conservative estimates of 500 million barrels and NPV of $10? The calculation method and the figures are sourced from the publicily declared documents on the PVD website.

My point regarding the share price is that the PVD and the stockbrokers are indicating the share price of $2.00 reflecting a high probability of success. Yet the PVD share price (using efficient market hypothesis) is suggesting a price of $0.40, suggesting a low likelihood of success. This aligns with your comment that "if" all goes well. There appears to be a lot of selling activity.
 
STOCKMASTER4K said:
Thanks for your comment, when you state the valuation is wrong, what do you mean? The calculation of multiplying the number of barrels by the NPV per barrel, OR the use of conservative estimates of 500 million barrels and NPV of $10? The calculation method and the figures are sourced from the publicily declared documents on the PVD website.

My point regarding the share price is that the PVD and the stockbrokers are indicating the share price of $2.00 reflecting a high probability of success. Yet the PVD share price (using efficient market hypothesis) is suggesting a price of $0.40, suggesting a low likelihood of success. This aligns with your comment that "if" all goes well. There appears to be a lot of selling activity.
Click to expand...

Sorry that may have been a bit abrupt - first I should claim that I know nothing about valuing things like this because there is not much point due to opinions, potential, so many unknowns and so much risk. However, if you were to try, a method could be by making comparisons between other oilers that have been through the same situation with approximately the same risk profile, age of company and proximity to markets.

When finding this wishy washy, you then realize the best way to go is to look at what the stock is doing technically, what the upcoming expectations are, watching for accumulation, drying up of the selling, and then make an entry. On confirmation of an entry (ie. profit of X %), hit it hard. That is my approach and not my advice to anyone; but if you were to look at this method, then there is lots of discussion under "VSA - volume spread analysis" and technical trading threads.

If technicals are not your thing, then you had better strap in and have a strong plan on price to exit, enter and profit % just to make sure that you don't get stuck in a losing trade with no discipline to exit.

Hope this helps. I am watching it and will continue to update if I see anything. The upcoming drill will be very exciting and could be a great play for methods like BESBS'. Search that term if not sure.
 
A look at the chart.

Two levels to watch for. If it breaks below this support then look for a lower level to form.
Basically there should be some volume coming in to it leading up to the drill as seen in the previous run up with my arrow on it. Then watch for large buys and sells and mull them over for what they might mean to your trade.

Hope this helps.

My opinion and often wrong so please make sure you form your own, but please feel free to discuss.

22-05-2013 8-51-27 PM.png
 
mr. jeff said:
Sorry that may have been a bit abrupt - first I should claim that I know nothing about valuing things like this because there is not much point due to opinions, potential, so many unknowns and so much risk. However, if you were to try, a method could be by making comparisons between other oilers that have been through the same situation with approximately the same risk profile, age of company and proximity to markets.

When finding this wishy washy, you then realize the best way to go is to look at what the stock is doing technically, what the upcoming expectations are, watching for accumulation, drying up of the selling, and then make an entry. On confirmation of an entry (ie. profit of X %), hit it hard. That is my approach and not my advice to anyone; but if you were to look at this method, then there is lots of discussion under "VSA - volume spread analysis" and technical trading threads.

If technicals are not your thing, then you had better strap in and have a strong plan on price to exit, enter and profit % just to make sure that you don't get stuck in a losing trade with no discipline to exit.

Hope this helps. I am watching it and will continue to update if I see anything. The upcoming drill will be very exciting and could be a great play for methods like BESBS'. Search that term if not sure.
Click to expand...

Your comments are insightfull. The notion of BESBS may explain to some extent what is being observed in PVD trading. Clearly the stockbrokers are supporting PVD at $0.39 / $0.40 level which is not surprising as the allcoation was at $0.39. The longer term investors are in wait and see (hold mode) BESBS. New investors are waiting and only willing to buy at low price, but are really waiting for information before entering the market, opportunity cost issue - delay investment and receive interest. I do not understand why PVD has not offered shares to existing shareholders?
 
I placed it in a watch list. Technical indicator is turning buy. Nice potential target: 0.718
 
Country Lad said:
Can you tell us which indicator and post a chart please

Cheers
Country Lad
Click to expand...

After re-reading the market update I have found that if the stock can hold above this support level then it could offer a low risk entry point based on the upcoming news and current proximate drilling which if successful could provide a spike to start an sp move. I have entered based on this - a little early but tight stop below support.

Now watching more closely.

Cheers.
 
815 MMBO NET PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES NKEMBE BLOCK

● Initial evaluation has identified substantial resources in the Nkembe block with net prospective resources of 815 mmbo (mean)
● This initial review has confirmed that the Nkembe block contains a range of different play types with four main prospects being evaluated
● The evaluation has confirmed the existence of large pre-salt structures in the Nkembe block
● Farmout process will commence shortly with EZDataRoom, the group that successfully assisted Pura Vida in farming out the Mazagan permit in Morocco

Pura Vida Energy NL (“Pura Vida” or the “Company”) (ASX: PVD) is pleased to announce that it has completed an initial evaluation of the potential resources in the Nkembe block, offshore Gabon, West Africa which has resulted in the recognition of net mean recoverable prospective resources to Pura Vida of 815 mmbo. This resource estimate is based on the first four prospects (outside of the Loba M 1 resource) reviewed so far by Pura Vida on the Nkembe block. Further resource estimates will be provided during the course of the year in relation to the variety of prospects and plays present on Pura Vida’s Nkembe block.

Pura Vida’s Technical Director, Mr David Ormerod, said:
“We were attracted to the Nkembe block because of the range of play types. Earlier in the year we announced a 20 mmbo contingent resource at the Loba M 1 discovery in the post-salt. Today’s resource estimate recognises the significant exploration potential of other plays present in the Nkembe block, particularly the pre-salt which is the main play currently being targeted by the industry in Gabon. This is a pleasing outcome ahead of our planned farmout to fund activities on the block.â
 
One of the endless broker reports on PVD. GMP initiates coverage with target price of $2.60.

Interestingly, this coverage was done before PVD announced a 815MMBO potential resource in Gabon.

Logically GMP's target must now be north of $2.60.

There is also no mention of the land granted in Egypt.

Time for them to upgrade their report already.

http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/GMP_Securities_-_Research_-_PVD_1.pdf
 
springhill said:
One of the endless broker reports on PVD. GMP initiates coverage with target price of $2.60.

Interestingly, this coverage was done before PVD announced a 815MMBO potential resource in Gabon.

Logically GMP's target must now be north of $2.60.

There is also no mention of the land granted in Egypt.

Time for them to upgrade their report already.

http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/GMP_Securities_-_Research_-_PVD_1.pdf
Click to expand...

Got to love the broker reports - who pays for them to be done - $2.60 ? They haven't got anything confirmed yet! Yes Yes they have prospects - but in this market you need something pretty serious to attract more than a passing glance. I note the oil price is really moving up recently - whether we see oilers track this time will tell.
 
LOBA-1 CORE INSPECTION CONFIRMS OIL COLUMN
NKEMBE BLOCK GABON

Highlights
● Initial evaluation of Loba-1 drilling cores has identified coarse sandstone reservoirs consistent with the good quality reservoir reported previously based on log properties.
● The sandstones evaluated in the cores have abundant oil staining consistent with the interpretation previously reported that there is a significant oil column at the Loba-1 location.
● PVD confirms existing contingent resources of 20 mmbo (p50) at the Loba Oil Field which the company plans to appraise and potentially develop for near term production and cash flow.
 
IN PRINCIPLE APPROVAL OF MAZAGAN FARMOUT, OFFSHORE MOROCCO

Pura Vida Energy NL (“Pura Vida” or the “Company”) (ASX: PVD) is pleased to advise that His Excellency Fouad Douiri, Minister for Energy of the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco, has provided in principle approval of the farmout of the Mazagan permit to a subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas LLC (formerly Plains Exploration & Production).
This approval is the key step in finalising the approvals process for completion of the Mazagan farmout, with the remaining steps being administrative in nature. These final steps for Government approval include the signing of an amendment to the Petroleum Agreement to introduce Freeport-MacMoRan Oil & Gas as a partner in the Mazagan permit (the form and content of which has been agreed and is scheduled to be signed by all parties in early August) and finally the signing of joint Ministerial orders.
Pura Vida anticipates completion of the approvals process shortly, with completion under the terms of the farmout agreement to occur immediately thereafter. On completion of the farmout, Pura Vida will receive a cash payment of US$15 million (A$16.2 million) under the terms of the farmout.
 
PVD really making headway - anyone that is following / owning, they only have 9m cash so may come knocking - be ready for it.

Things shaping up nicely so far.
 
mr. jeff said:
PVD really making headway - anyone that is following / owning, they only have 9m cash so may come knocking - be ready for it.

Things shaping up nicely so far.
Click to expand...

It was only 2 weeks ago they raised $7m, can't see them raising again on the back of that - they could have tapped the corporates for far more than $7m if the need was there. Then again this is the stock market we are talking about.

It would be nice if that $15m from the farm-out would find its way into their coffers!

I am only working off memory here but weren't PVD due to farm-out Gabon somewhere towards the end of this year?
 
springhill said:
It was only 2 weeks ago they raised $7m, can't see them raising again on the back of that - they could have tapped the corporates for far more than $7m if the need was there. Then again this is the stock market we are talking about.

It would be nice if that $15m from the farm-out would find its way into their coffers!

I am only working off memory here but weren't PVD due to farm-out Gabon somewhere towards the end of this year?
Click to expand...

Right you are.
Farm out of Gabon still in the works ( they report more money to be spent prior so some work to be completed here first it seems).
Cap raising of 7m completed well oversubscribed after the last financial statement so PVD would have around 9.5m at bank.

Not good if they are still waiting for the 15m Mazagan farmout money which was approved in principal in July...issues there ? May need to use more palm oil!

In summary, I was wrong about a raising - as soon as I see a share price run I naturally expect to see a cap raising announcement.
 
http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/Trading_Halt.pdf

PURA VIDA ENERGY NL (PVD) REQUEST FOR TRADING HALT
Pursuant to Listing Rule 17.1, PVD requests that an immediate trading halt be granted by the Australian Securities Exchange with respect to its securities pending the release of separate announcements to the market in respect of:
● the receipt of Government approval for the farmout of the Mazagan permit; and
● the acquisition of an interest in a new project offshore East Africa.
The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of the announcements or prior to the commencement of trading on Tuesday, 5 November 2013.
PVD is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.

http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/1273505.pdf

MAZAGAN FARMOUT COMPLETES
Pura Vida Energy NL (“Pura Vida” or the “Company”) (ASX: PVD) is pleased to advise that it has received all outstanding Government approvals for the farmout of the Mazagan permit, offshore Morocco, to a subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas LLC (“FM O&G”). Subsequently Pura Vida and FM O&G have now completed the terms of the farmout agreement. A summary of the terms of the farmout can be found in Pura Vida’s announcement of 3 January 2013.

The completion of the farmout is an important milestone for Pura Vida which places the Company in a strong financial position as we enter the drilling phase in the Mazagan permit. Highlights include:
● Pura Vida has received a cash payment of US$15 million from FM O&G, increasing Pura Vida’s cash position to A$22 million.
● The Company is fully funded for a two well drilling program offshore Morocco capped at US$215 million.
● The first well in Morocco will target the Toubkal prospect and its significant resource potential.
● FM O&G is a capable operator and partnering with them adds significant value to the project.
Pura Vida Managing Director, Damon Neaves, says:
“The completion of the Mazagan farmout is a transformational event for Pura Vida and we are now entering the drilling phase to test exciting plays offshore Morocco. The Company was founded with this purpose in mind so this farmout success is a strong endorsement of our strategy.
Thanks must go to our shareholders for their loyalty and support which has allowed us to reach this important milestone. Management will remain focused on continuing to build a diversified portfolio as part of Pura Vida’s next stage of growt.”
 
http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/1273561.pdf

PURA VIDA TO ACQUIRE 50% INTEREST IN AMBILOBE BLOCK, OFFSHORE MADAGASCAR
● Pura Vida makes strategic entry into East Africa through farmin to 50% of the Ambilobe PSC, offshore Madagascar
● Large acreage footprint in a proven oil basin
● Extension of the prolific Permian and Jurassic sourced oil discoveries onshore Madagascar
● New seismic data to be acquired to unlock potential of this salt basin, which makes Ambilobe a natural fit in Pura Vida’s growing exploration portfolio
● Ambilobe is located adjacent, immediately to the north of the Ampasindava block where ExxonMobil is the Operator

Exploration Activity
The Ambilobe PSC is currently in Phase 2 of the exploration period (expiring in September 2015) with no outstanding work commitments in the current phase. If the joint venture elects to enter Phase 3 of the exploration period, an exploration well will be required to be drilled by September 2016.
Under the farmin agreement, Pura Vida will reimburse US$1.25 million in back costs to Sterling and fund the acquisition and processing of 1,000 km of 2D and 1,250 km² of 3D seismic data targeting substantial anticlinal and salt related prospects up to a maximum cost of US$15 million. An opportunity is available to acquire the 2D data in the first half of CY2014 and discussions are underway regarding the use of a vessel with costs anticipated to be in the order of US$2 million. The 3D acquisition will be undertaken separately following a competitive tender and timing will be determined by vessel availability (indicatively second half of CY2014).
The acquisition of new seismic will allow for better imaging of reservoirs in the structures associated with the salt. The technology has been proven to work worldwide and is consistent with the work Pura Vida has undertaken in Gabon and Morocco to better define prospects.
 
PVD is under trading halt for a capital raise.
Broker recommendation it to be highly promising
Not supported by any recommendation to the market prices.

Any one has been following it to share with respect to its peers ?

My portfolio has reduced from the purchase price and after seeing so many surprises from FGE, AAX do not want to get rolled over again.
 
PVD continues to drift along like a cork in the ocean with no real significant news to permeate through from the company.
It seems to be a waiting game until the Gabon farm out is finalised & announced, drilling in plays around its Moroccan tenament due to ramp up soon and PVD's own drilling program still the best part of 9 months away.
I am looking forward to seeing if PVD can secure a favourable deal for Gabon, much as they did for Morocco. Madagascar could also provide that same opportunity with a quoted strategy of farming out for drilling.

PVD have done well to position themselves with 3 quality permits, a guaranteed $215m drilling program in Morocco, only 126m shares on issue (+ 36m unquoted) and to date $27m in the bank. A position that many junior O&G companies would love to have the priviledge of being in.

The question is, if there are those waiting and watching with capital in other investments, how long do those with that kind of sentiment hold out before looking for an entry/re-entry period?

Undoubtedly PVD has much potential, but the drift in share price and the time lag before drill hitting soil in its own projects gives the feeling of a death by 1000 cuts.

The latest investor presentation from March 2014 is here.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140310/pdf/42n8xwb0bl8p4g.pdf

Damon Neaves BRR interview link.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140305/pdf/42n5pjw3y089fd.pdf

Rig secured for 2 wells in Mazagan Permit
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140303/pdf/42n3zp8dkndm4f.pdf

Overview of the significance of nearby drilling
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140205/pdf/42mjxqlqrtbq6w.pdf
 

Similar threads

System
CUS - Copper Search
Replies
6
Views
2K
frugal.rock
frugal.rock
springhill
LOT - Lotus Resources
4 5 6
Replies
100
Views
26K
brerwallabi
brerwallabi
P
RCO - Royalco Resources
2 3
Replies
59
Views
16K
System
System
Top