Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HHR - Hartshead Resources

Jump to new
The way they come up with their share price is very, very conservative based on the actual numbers. 10% COS is used where 30%+ is what D&M have forecast from the seismic. Not to mention that almost every other figure used seems to be much lower than what you'd expect. I suppose playing it super safe is what saves you from having angry investors if things fall short. There is N1 Brewin who are yet to make an upgraded target price.

If the trend continues, then we can expect another jump in the SP when/if their report comes out. The last two reports release times both lined up nicely with the spikes in the SP. Thats just my observation however.
 
Crows said:
The way they come up with their share price is very, very conservative based on the actual numbers. 10% COS is used where 30%+ is what D&M have forecast from the seismic. Not to mention that almost every other figure used seems to be much lower than what you'd expect. I suppose playing it super safe is what saves you from having angry investors if things fall short. There is N1 Brewin who are yet to make an upgraded target price.

If the trend continues, then we can expect another jump in the SP when/if their report comes out. The last two reports release times both lined up nicely with the spikes in the SP. Thats just my observation however.
Click to expand...

Hartleys Limited - Pura Vida Energy NL said:
We believe it is safe to assume that PVD will achieve a farm-out (given the quality of the acreage, size of the prospects, DHIs, multiple play types, increased activity in the region) that will result in drilling within 18 months (possible sooner). Given this, let’s explore the parameters around potential uplift and chance of success. Toubkal has mean potential for 1.5 billion barrels of oil and PVD will conservatively retain a 30% working interest post farm-out. This means that the potential value on success, net to PVD @ $10 per barrel, is $4.5 billion dollars. So, if we assumed that chance of success was 10% (1/3 of the D&M estimate), that would imply that a valuation of $450m ($5 per share) pre-drill would constitute an even money proposition. This is for Toubkal alone.
We have increased our price target from 113cps to 188cps. PVD is a Buy.
Click to expand...

That is bewildering - $5. And now it sits at 70-ish cents and already it has doubled. Will it do it again? Are these guys serious or do they write this to sell stock? I guess another couple of months will tell...
 
mr. jeff said:
That is bewildering - $5. And now it sits at 70-ish cents and already it has doubled. Will it do it again? Are these guys serious or do they write this to sell stock? I guess another couple of months will tell...
Click to expand...

Looking at the past four days of action sees some profit taking. No point in questioning whether this was a coincidence with the news releases of course.

Nevertheless the key point of holding this stock if for farm out and then drilling, not for broker reports, and looking ahead for the month should deliver. Volumes show sell down to a more reasonable trajectory without a crash.

Looking for a return of buying and at this stage I am assuming that this selldown/lack of buying is primarily an attempt to accumulate more at a lower price possibly by larger neighbours through various houses.

CTP's response to farm out whispers has already seen 22% - is the deal done ?
 
mr. jeff said:
Looking at the past four days of action sees some profit taking. No point in questioning whether this was a coincidence with the news releases of course.

Nevertheless the key point of holding this stock if for farm out and then drilling, not for broker reports, and looking ahead for the month should deliver. Volumes show sell down to a more reasonable trajectory without a crash.

Looking for a return of buying and at this stage I am assuming that this selldown/lack of buying is primarily an attempt to accumulate more at a lower price possibly by larger neighbours through various houses.

CTP's response to farm out whispers has already seen 22% - is the deal done ?
Click to expand...

I have been taking a few profits lately, with an entry price of sub 30c. You would be mad not to, no matter what the potential.
If there is one thing I have learnt over the years it is de-risk, de-risk, de-risk!
 
You are most likely right and it is certainly not bad to be banking profit, it is very satisfying.

In this case I was too greedy. And remain so. This may prove to be a big mistake; we will know shortly. I could say how great their prospects were or try to mark the chart favourably, but I would say that PVD is begrudgingly trading up slowly and that shows weakness and risk of a sell off at any bad turn of events which could hurt.

Thanks for the sobering comment, there must always be some balanced contribution; that is why it is good to post here. Watching!
 
Cannot be long before farm out news is out - October is nearly over.

It has not moved much for 2 weeks and as is sitting in wait of some news - nothing forthcoming yet and no hints on the timeframe... chart shows little action and slow sell off of the excited unfaithful. Which I am considering joining, however at this stage it is too close to their announcement and the next phase of drilling to get out now...fear of losing a gain and fear of making a loss!
 
It is shaping up like a coiled snake in my opinion.

24-10-2012 11-06-43 AM.png

I see low volume, a very recent test that has been successful so far and positive action on a negative day.
Looking for a move above light resistance at 70c, then a big jump over 80c for the move up to continue, most likely on the announcement of farm in. Volume very light, which is good and bad - good as there are no sellers jumping ship...
 
ENCOURAGING PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF DROP CORE ANALYSIS

Pura Vida announce that preliminary analysis on the cores acquired by Pura Vida’s drop core program has identified several cores that require further analysis to verify micro seepage. The survey was undertaken by specialist group TDI-Brooks International.
Many of the cores requiring further analysis are clustered around the location of our Amchad prospect as well as our largest prospect, Toubkal, which has an estimated mean resource potential of 1,507 mmbo.
Further analysis, including biomarker analysis for hydrocarbons, will be undertaken by Geomark and Geochemical Solutions International (GSI) in Houston. This analysis enables the origin and typing of hydrocarbons to be determined. These results are expected to be available within 2 months.
 
springhill said:
ENCOURAGING PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF DROP CORE ANALYSIS

Pura Vida announce that preliminary analysis on the cores acquired by Pura Vida’s drop core program has identified several cores that require further analysis to verify micro seepage. The survey was undertaken by specialist group TDI-Brooks International.
Many of the cores requiring further analysis are clustered around the location of our Amchad prospect as well as our largest prospect, Toubkal, which has an estimated mean resource potential of 1,507 mmbo.
Further analysis, including biomarker analysis for hydrocarbons, will be undertaken by Geomark and Geochemical Solutions International (GSI) in Houston. This analysis enables the origin and typing of hydrocarbons to be determined. These results are expected to be available within 2 months.
Click to expand...

Anyone know whether the big storm in the US is likely to cause any delays to the further analysis of the cores? Was Houston affected?
 
MrLearner said:
Anyone know whether the big storm in the US is likely to cause any delays to the further analysis of the cores? Was Houston affected?
Click to expand...

I can't answer that question mate, my suggestion would be give them a call or flick them an email. Any company worth their salt should converse with shareholders promptly.
 
I am quite happy with their communication to date, they are doing well.

September quarterly said:
Planned drilling activity offshore Morocco

As a result of the significant activity occurring around the Mazagan permit, we now expect that at least 6 wells will be drilled in 2013/14 by Pura Vida and our immediate neighbours (Kosmos, Genel and Cairn).
The planned drilling operations represent a substantial and unprecedented investment in exploration offshore Morocco. The heightened level of drilling activity has very positive implications for the Mazagan permit and validates Pura Vida’s early entry into a substantial acreage position offshore Morocco.
New venture opportunities
Consistent with the Company’s strategy to build a diversified portfolio of oil and gas assets, Pura Vida is continuously reviewing new venture opportunities. The Company’s focus is on early entry opportunities onshore and offshore Africa with significant growth potential.
Click to expand...

It seems that they are intending to get pretty serious as soon as they can - the run into the potential 6 wells might be worth it, although it is a while away yet...
 
POSITIVE RESULTS FROM SEISMIC INVERSION MODELLING
Pura Vida Energy NL (“Pura Vida” or the “Company”) (ASX:pVD) is pleased to announce that it has completed inversion modelling of the reprocessed 3D seismic data over its Mazagan permit. The inversion process uses well data from nearby wells to predict the seismic response that best fits with the presence of hydrocarbons.
The results of the inversion study demonstrate an excellent match between the prediction of hydrocarbons from the well data and the actual seismic acquired over the Mazagan permit. By obtaining the same results following different processes, this gives high confidence for the presence of hydrocarbons.

The seismic inversion modelling compliments the various work undertaken by Pura Vida over the last 12 months. Each piece of work has led to further validation of the significant prospectivity of Mazagan, specifically:
• the reprocessing and reinterpretation of 3D seismic which confirmed Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators (DHI’s) over key prospects, including the giant Toubkal prospect which has a mean resource potential of 1,507 mmbo;
• an upgrade to the mean prospective recoverable resources at Mazagan to 5.3 billion barrels (net to Pura Vida);
• the estimation of a one in three chance of success for the prospects in the Miocene play and a one in five chance of success for prospects in the Cretaceous plays; and
• encouraging results from the drop core program, which identified several cores that require further analysis to verify micro seepage of hydrocarbons.
The positive results from the seismic inversion modelling will be included in the data room for the farmout process being managed by EZDataRoom. The positive results obtained from each piece of work undertaken by Pura Vida on the Mazagan permit, together with proximate farmout activities which imply high values and strong industry interest, means that Pura Vida is well placed to farm out Mazagan in the coming months to fund the high impact drilling program.
The farmout will be a transformational event for the Company and is expected to realise significant value for Pura Vida’s shareholders.
 
Moving along very nicely with a push above 80c.
News still to come and things looking solid so far with a decent return of volume. I have built more of a position and am enjoying the ride so far. Today's close at half mast shows a bit of selling which is not very positive.
 
CONFIRMATION OF OIL IN DROP CORES
Pura Vida Energy NL (“Pura Vida” or the “Company”) (ASX:pVD) is pleased to announce that further geochemical analysis on the cores acquired by Pura Vida’s drop core program on its Mazagan permit offshore Morocco, has confirmed several cores contain light oil saturation.
The further analysis has been undertaken by specialist group Geomark & Geochemical Solutions International in Houston. The cores containing oil are located proximate to the Amchad prospect as well as Pura Vida’s largest prospect, Toubkal, which has an estimated mean resource potential of 1,507 mmbo.
The analysis confirms the presence of chemical compounds (biomarkers) indicating the source rock for the oil is the Lower Jurassic, as has been previously proposed by the Company as the main source of hydrocarbons for the Mazagan permit.
Pura Vida’s Technical Director Dave Ormerod says, “This result confirms that oil is migrating through the Mazagan permit and provides encouraging evidence to support that the large structures seen on 3D can be charged.”
With the completion of technical work on Mazagan, Pura Vida is now focused on the farmout and drilling program.
 
Yeah still in there and enjoying the ride
I noticed announcement of a CR, don't yet know the details but have found strength behind it.
Looking good still, and no farm in news yet.
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/px...-offshore-morocco-exploration-play-2013-01-02

HOUSTON, Jan. 2, 2013 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Plains Exploration & Production Company PXP +1.19% ("PXP" or the "Company") today announces it has entered into a definitive agreement to participate in the significant and highly prospective exploration play offshore Morocco. Subject to customary closing conditions including the receipt of Moroccan governmental approvals, PXP will make a cash payment of $15 million to farm-in to Pura Vida Energy's (asx:pVD) ("PVD") 75% working interest in the 2.7 million acre Mazagan permit area offshore Morocco. PXP will earn a 52% working interest and act as operator in exchange for funding 100% of the costs of certain specified exploration activities that will include a commitment to fund and drill two wells, and if agreed, various additional exploration operations subject to a maximum of $215 million. The first exploration well will primarily target the Toubkal prospect and is expected to be drilled in 2014.

The Mazagan permit area lies off the coast of Morocco in the Essaouira Basin and includes numerous Mid Miocene and Lower Cretaceous prospects identified based on recently reprocessed 3D seismic data. An independent resource assessment completed by DeGolyer and MacNaughton in September 2012 estimated the gross unrisked mean prospective recoverable resources at over 7 billion barrels, including the 1.5 billion barrel gross unrisked mean prospective recoverable resource Toubkal Mid Miocene prospect.

PXP is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the activities of acquiring, developing, exploring and producing oil and gas in California, Texas, Louisiana, and the Gulf of Mexico. PXP is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Closed at 69c, down almost 16%. Seems the market is all about buy on rumour and sell on news lately. Look at TPT, suffered the same fate. Lets hope PVD have the same gameplan to fill the gap between now and the drills with more projects or farm-ins.
 
Crows said:
Closed at 69c, down almost 16%. Seems the market is all about buy on rumour and sell on news lately. Look at TPT, suffered the same fate. Lets hope PVD have the same gameplan to fill the gap between now and the drills with more projects or farm-ins.
Click to expand...

Hartleys and Argonaut have issued updated reports and targets for PVD.
http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/130103_-_Hartleys_-_Mazagan_Farmout.pdf
http://www.puravidaenergy.com.au/news_pdf/130103_-_Argonaut_-_Farm-out_Beats_Expectation.pdf

Subject to approvals PVD are now well funded and Damon Neaves has flagged the potential acquisition of further prospective acreage in the African region. No reason to think that this is the end of any high impact news for PVD just because drill date has been set. The Toubkal well is likely to be drilled in 2014. This coincides with forecast rig availability and the drilling programs being planned by the operators of neighbouring blocks.

Acquisition could be a catalyst for another SP increase. PVD management have shown a knack for picking up good land, hopefully the pattern can continue.
 

Similar threads

System
CUS - Copper Search
Replies
6
Views
2K
frugal.rock
frugal.rock
springhill
LOT - Lotus Resources
4 5 6
Replies
100
Views
26K
brerwallabi
brerwallabi
P
RCO - Royalco Resources
2 3
Replies
59
Views
16K
System
System
Top