Handbags at 20 paces

[wayneL]

I doubt you could and I don't think that's what the intention is - I might be missing something but you'd always want to check what the price is doing.

if I were using time & price & my price were hit but time was out by a few hours / days / weeks I wouldn't be hanging about waiting

Well that's the way I would look at it. But I often hear this "time is more important than price" quoted. I just don't get it and nobody seems willing to expand on this concept.

Genuine question here.

 

[sails]

Well that's the way I would look at it. But I often hear this "time is more important than price" quoted. I just don't get it and nobody seems willing to expand on this concept.

Genuine question here.

Wayne, I think the problem is that there’s no easy way to answer your question fully without re-writing the text books. Similar complexity to someone asking “what’s an option; what’s volatility, etc?” !! You give the dictionary answer – only to get more questions – in the end it’s easier to refer to text books, web sites, etc.

Another issue in learning about time is that there are so many different methods, and I don’t know where this knowledge can be obtained as freely as options education. Probably Gann’s book “How to Make Profits in Commodities” would help. Might be available from a local library – not an easy read though!

Mag has done a great job giving a lot out for free, obviously spending an enormous amount of time with detailed posts and charts to try and illustrate the use of time – but the sheer complexity of it seems to only add to the confusion of readers. It’s not for everyone, that’s for sure!

..."time is more important than price...

I think this would be better understood if it read “time pressure points” vs. “price pressure points”. My understanding of price pressure points is where support levels cluster. I think one would have to be an extremely skilled technician to find that time works better than price – I only use it as confirmation – and my use of time is much simpler than Mag’s!

Here is a very simplified example of comparing time to price:

Suppose there is a stock that has been steadily climbing with a couple of major pullbacks along the way. The market starts to turn back down again and we want to establish potential support levels. So we apply some fib levels from the high to the extreme low – then again from the same high to the next higher low – then again from the high to the highest low. We see that there is a “cluster” of fib lines at say 38%, 50% and 62% respectively from those last three measurements. We also note that this level lines up with a previous top and possibly one of the lows. I think that most would understand that as being a potential “support level” or sometimes known as a price “pressure point” or “cluster” and could potentially turn the market IF it gets there.

A similar thing can be applied with time. Instead of measuring previous price swings as in the above example, the time between previous tops to tops; lows to lows; highs to lows (ranges); various squares from major highs/lows . These (and fractions of them) are then extended out in time to see where the “clusters” or “time pressure points” fall. Mag’s charts have illustrated the use of some of these types of techniques.

A lot of time (no pun intended!) is required to put it all together and then to interpret it is the difficult part, IMO. I think many traders don’t see the value in putting in so much effort when it still doesn’t guarantee 100% success. But then there are those like Mag and others that thrive on it! Anyway, hope this helps a little – been sitting here typing for too long now – achilles tendon injury still causing some grief – can’t believe how slow it is to recover!

Cheers,

Margaret.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Wayne, I think the problem is that there’s no easy way to answer your question fully without re-writing the text books. Similar complexity to someone asking “what’s an option; what’s volatility, etc?” !! You give the dictionary answer – only to get more questions – in the end it’s easier to refer to text books, web sites, etc.

Another issue in learning about time is that there are so many different methods, and I don’t know where this knowledge can be obtained as freely as options education. Probably Gann’s book “How to Make Profits in Commodities” would help. Might be available from a local library – not an easy read though!

Mag has done a great job giving a lot out for free, obviously spending an enormous amount of time with detailed posts and charts to try and illustrate the use of time – but the sheer complexity of it seems to only add to the confusion of readers. It’s not for everyone, that’s for sure!



I think this would be better understood if it read “time pressure points” vs. “price pressure points”. My understanding of price pressure points is where support levels cluster. I think one would have to be an extremely skilled technician to find that time works better than price – I only use it as confirmation – and my use of time is much simpler than Mag’s!

Here is a very simplified example of comparing time to price:

Suppose there is a stock that has been steadily climbing with a couple of major pullbacks along the way. The market starts to turn back down again and we want to establish potential support levels. So we apply some fib levels from the high to the extreme low – then again from the same high to the next higher low – then again from the high to the highest low. We see that there is a “cluster” of fib lines at say 38%, 50% and 62% respectively from those last three measurements. We also note that this level lines up with a previous top and possibly one of the lows. I think that most would understand that as being a potential “support level” or sometimes known as a price “pressure point” or “cluster” and could potentially turn the market IF it gets there.

A similar thing can be applied with time. Instead of measuring previous price swings as in the above example, the time between previous tops to tops; lows to lows; highs to lows (ranges); various squares from major highs/lows . These (and fractions of them) are then extended out in time to see where the “clusters” or “time pressure points” fall. Mag’s charts have illustrated the use of some of these types of techniques.

A lot of time (no pun intended!) is required to put it all together and then to interpret it is the difficult part, IMO. I think many traders don’t see the value in putting in so much effort when it still doesn’t guarantee 100% success. But then there are those like Mag and others that thrive on it! Anyway, hope this helps a little – been sitting here typing for too long now – achilles tendon injury still causing some grief – can’t believe how slow it is to recover!

Cheers,

Margaret.

Margaret,

Thanks for the very good post.
Take care of your heel as I believe it does take a while.

Regards
Snake

 

[tech/a]

Margaret.

Strong points which I can associate with.
I'm on Wayne's side of the fence.

Both time and price analysis works from significant highs and significant lows.
There are also various timeframes in which these will occur.
Confluence of points in both time and price do bring about an area of confidence.
My point is and always has been to use either as stand alone or both in conjunction as a stand alone trading tool is from what I have seen impossible to apply with enough consistency to claim an edge.

As Wayne says---so many points---- so many what if's.

Is both Time and Price necessary to be profitable.
I dont think so.
Is it a "Handy tool"---- yes.
Do you NEED to be an expert in application of both time and price to be profitable even profitable well above Market performance.---I dont think so.
In conjunction with other analysis fine,and "Handy" Stand alone like trying to drive a car on 2 wheels not 4.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Tech,

You use EW and Aget. Do you use any time elements at all?

 

[tech/a]

No.
Ive been looking at application but cant see anything of practical value.
I'm no expert in E/W either but can see and have applied it with excellent practical value.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

No.
Ive been looking at application but cant see anything of practical value.
I'm no expert in E/W either but can see and have applied it with excellent practical value.

Not even Miner's stuff?

I am still exploring it.

 

[Edwood]

here's an example chaps of fib numbers applying to time in EW (in this case days) for FTSE. got this overnight. next possible time target 27 June. notice how the fib numbers recur on retraces & the impulses. but I'd give the price fibs more weight, personally

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

here's an example chaps of fib numbers applying to time in EW (in this case days) for FTSE. got this overnight. next possible time target 27 June. notice how the fib numbers recur on retraces & the impulses. but I'd give the price fibs more weight, personally

Thank you Edwood.

 

[tech/a]

Edwood.

Thanks for the example.
looking at practical application then we are in a wave 5 of a longer term wave 3.Within the Wave 5 we are looking at possibly being in the corrective wave 4 phase of the internal wave structure.

So I presume your long this chart.
Looking to trade LONG into the 27th of June where we should have a culmination of the Wave 5.

Will watch with interest.
Please post up a chart on or around there.

If this was reliable then you'd be ready with the cash for a buy once the wave 4 completes to trade heavily with confidence into both wave 5 completion and the time line June 27th.

Edwood is that the way youd see it?

 

[Edwood]

Edwood.

Thanks for the example.
looking at practical application then we are in a wave 5 of a longer term wave 3.Within the Wave 5 we are looking at possibly being in the corrective wave 4 phase of the internal wave structure.

So I presume your long this chart.
Looking to trade LONG into the 27th of June where we should have a culmination of the Wave 5.

Will watch with interest.
Please post up a chart on or around there.

If this was reliable then you'd be ready with the cash for a buy once the wave 4 completes to trade heavily with confidence into both wave 5 completion and the time line June 27th.

Edwood is that the way youd see it?

Hi Tech - I don't have a position in FTSE and don't trade daily views - this is just an example that I got in the post today that had time on it so thought I'd share it.

looking at the EW stuff - yes assuming I was long, I'd be looking to hold the long up to the wave 5 fib target. from here I wouldn't look to add - wave 5's can truncate, and we've had the meat of wave iii of 5 so the best part of the move is theoretically over. I'd look to close longs at the wave 5 fib levels, and wait for confirmation for a retrace. or depending on the action at the w5 fib (e.g., selling spike / key reversal day) I might jsut go short there - cos the retraces are usually quick.

the fact that the analyst here has a fib number of days into June 27 is neither here nor there for me, I'll be watching the price action. I know the analyst and I doubt he'd be selling on the 27th if it looked like continuing on up!

would be interesting to see if the Gann crew can pin any time significance to that date as well?

sure thing will post an update around that date

Ed

 

[Edwood]

Edwood.
Looking to trade LONG into the 27th of June where we should have a culmination of the Wave 5.

If this was reliable then you'd be ready with the cash for a buy once the wave 4 completes to trade heavily with confidence into both wave 5 completion and the time line June 27th.

sorry should've said Tech - yes definitely a case for longs off the wave 4 fib targets for day / swing traders so maybe something to check out if you cover FTSE - this report is targeted at 'investment' clients fwiw

 

[tech/a]

yep fine Will watch.

 

[sails]

Margaret.

Strong points which I can associate with.
I'm on Wayne's side of the fence..

Tech/a, no worries! I'm not advocating the use of time as it is not for everyone - just trying to answer Wayne's question with some basic theory.

Both time and price analysis works from significant highs and significant lows.
There are also various timeframes in which these will occur.
Confluence of points in both time and price do bring about an area of confidence.
My point is and always has been to use either as stand alone or both in conjunction as a stand alone trading tool is from what I have seen impossible to apply with enough consistency to claim an edge

From my own experience, I do agree. There may well be a minority that are able to make it work for them as a stand alone, but I assume that most use time in conjunction with other techniques.

As Wayne says---so many points---- so many what if's.

Agree, and one of the reasons it won't suit everyone.

Is both Time and Price necessary to be profitable.
I dont think so.
Is it a "Handy tool"---- yes.
Do you NEED to be an expert in application of both time and price to be profitable even profitable well above Market performance.---I dont think so.
In conjunction with other analysis fine,and "Handy" Stand alone like trying to drive a car on 2 wheels not 4.

Actually, I agree again - must be a small fence!

 

[wayneL]

Margaret,

Thanks for the reply. It really backs up my thoughts on "Time AND Price" rather than "Time is MORE important than Price".

One day I will delve further into this.

Cheers

 

[sails]

Margaret,

Thanks for the very good post.
Take care of your heel as I believe it does take a while.

Regards
Snake

Glad you found the post helpful, Snake. Yes, the heel will take a while yet - but grateful to have at least discarded the crutches and enjoying increasing mobility now.

 

[sails]

Margaret,

Thanks for the reply. It really backs up my thoughts on "Time AND Price" rather than "Time is MORE important than Price".

One day I will delve further into this.

Cheers

Yep, it is fascinating stuff, Wayne! But I can't say the use of time & price has been any more reliable than other methods - at least in my experience. But then I only learned the basic methodology from Safety in the Market - was way too expensive to keep going with all the courses.

 

[tech/a]

Yep, it is fascinating stuff, Wayne! But I can't say the use of time & price has been any more reliable than other methods - at least in my experience.

My point exactly.
Ive never had this proven otherwise by any exponent.

All very interesting but when applied on trade after trade Ive not seen the analysis any more reliable than any other.

Yes used in conjunction with other analysis tools it provides another dimension,but Ive not seen an edge.(Demonstrated).

This is where Gannists get all tied in a knot.
Of course I want a demonstration of its effectiveness.
Just as I wanted one when I investigated systems testing 8 yrs ago.
The result was a profitable method which has well and truely proven to be worth the effort.
Same when Elliott was introduced AGAIN to me a few years ago.
Radge provided that in his FREE news letters prior to him opening the Chartist.
Result being I'm a member of the Chartist and am using/investigating and applying Elliott in my discretionary trading---Profitably and consistently.

Gann Well I keep asking and taking part in discussion just to be howelled down.
My only conclusion is that an consistent edge cannot be demonstrated.
Ive seen the work of a few and NONE have been as successful in ability to demonstrate the worth of further exploration of the topic like Radge in Elliot and Radge/Stevo and others in Systems developement.

I am open to discussion and demonstration.
From those who have posted on this thread I'm NOT ALONE

Thanks to those including Moggie for your efforts so far.

 

[Magdoran]

Time & Price

We all understand trading price. I understand trading time very well in the context of options. (Theta etc) I have a concept of trading time combined with price (whether that concept is the same as Gann's I have no idea, I think not)

Where I am like a mule at a new gate is the concept of trading time exclusively (leaving aside options) on a linear instrument like straight stocks or futures as per Duc's post.

How do you trade time and not price?

Hello Wayne,

“How do you trade time and not price?” – Great question, and one of the first ones I asked when I started looking at this area.

The answer is actually quite involved and yet simple at the same time oddly enough. Margaret is spot on with this observation:

Wayne, I think the problem is that there’s no easy way to answer your question fully without re-writing the text books. Similar complexity to someone asking “what’s an option; what’s volatility, etc?” !! You give the dictionary answer – only to get more questions – in the end it’s easier to refer to text books, web sites, etc.

Given that most people accept that trying to answer such questions in a few lines in depth is not realistic, I will try to outline the core elements here as a starting point.

In simple terms it’s like trading an option with a rule to exit before 30 days to expiry. You know you have to exit on “time”. Imagine that there is a good “time” to enter an option, and a good time to “exit” an option irrespective of the price (think of an arbitrage situation that is time based). It’s kind of like that, but the core is pattern, time and price, in that order. But as you can imagine there is a lot to this…

To do this requires an understanding of several basic building blocks – pattern is at the core, especially the type of trend, determining when a trend is beginning, continuing and terminating is the key. The corollary of this is an understanding of counter trends. McLaren divides time cycles into two categories – cycles that run through all markets at all times, and localised cycles that have a limited life span for a specific sector, index/stock/commodity.

The idea is that if you can recognise these cycles and how they express themselves within the pattern of trend for the underlying, that this can allow you to enter and exit purely on time points, or a combination of time and price, or form a part of a perspective which results in an enhanced edge when trading or investing.

… I often hear this "time is more important than price" quoted. I just don't get it and nobody seems willing to expand on this concept.

Genuine question here.

Again, a really good central question, and exactly what you must answer in order to progress in this discipline. The best exponents deal with exactly this conundrum. What you are asking is very involved ironically, and it is easy to ask, but to answer simply will not do the concept justice. While I don’t have enough time to fully address this poignant question here to your satisfaction, here’s something to think about:

Gann saw time and price as essentially the same thing…

This concept is of course open to interpretation, and has been debated by many revisionists – my guess is that he saw time and price as two sides of a coin, inherently linked, hence if you focus only on price then you are missing half the picture, and if you can trade just on price, then you can trade just on time, if you understand how markets trend (which entails a host of theories covered in his works such as the various “laws” including time cycles).

Essentially you cannot separate time and price, so it is not that price isn’t an element in the process which of course it is, but it is the notion that timing is often more important than the price level in terms of formulating entries and exits.

The point is that once you understand patterns in the market, and recognise time cycles, and how the two relate, sometimes the relevance of price diminishes (it is always relevant though in terms of the profit you make, but I’m not talking about it in this sense, I’m talking about it in terms of pure entry and exit criteria). Personally I can often project time more accurately than price, based on the pattern for example.

At the core of understanding patterns is understanding patterns of trend and especially counter trends, in various time frames (daily, weekly, monthly for example, but you can extend either way – intraday, quarterly, etc), and this is without even considering the geometric techniques let alone time cycles. This is sufficient to trade from in it’s own right, but can be greatly enhanced using the appropriate techniques. So, the time cycle element is all about precision.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

I doubt you could and I don't think that's what the intention is - I might be missing something but you'd always want to check what the price is doing.

if I were using time & price & my price were hit but time was out by a few hours / days / weeks I wouldn't be hanging about waiting

Good point Ed, and you’re right, there are times when price is more compelling than time, quite true – the art is in knowing which to use and when, separately or in tandem. But there are times when time is in my view the dominant factor.

The key above all of this for me though is PATTERN. It is a holistic approach. This is where Yogi and I seem to differ, my understanding is that he trades purely on time (although I am thinking about this viewpoint – I just don’t fully understand it yet).

Cheers

Mag