Handbags at 20 paces

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

What people need to realise is that I didn’t just wake up one day and say, “right, I’m going to ditch moving averages and become an Elliott Wave trader”, and later on suddenly decide “wow, I think I’ll use time cycles instead of Elliott Wave”. It was a slow and methodical process, and evolved over time with much trial and error.

I’m pretty sceptical, and I don’t change my thinking lightly. I am inquisitive, and I do investigate, but I’m careful and slow to change until I’m sure about something, and satisfied I have realistically researched it enough to make a rigorous appraisal.

I used to day trade Warrants many years ago, and had some great wins early on, using a moving average oscillator approach. What happened though is that over time I had some spectacular losses which more than negated my wins, when many of my long positions suddenly pulled back hard, and I exited on stop for a significant loss.

I also found that when stocks were trending down that I’d buy false breaks, watch the stock dive, exit, and then watch the damn thing go flying to the stars with me out of it, and with a reduced bank account. Sound familiar?

One day I got the shock of my life when I put up around 80K on a trade, and once long, the stock was put into a trading halt on bad news. I can still remember the sick feeling today, I’m sure my face went white, and I felt like I’d been in a car accident. This called for a major reappraisal about everything I was doing because it wasn’t working in the long run.

I learnt more about risk to reward, position sizing, more about leveraged instruments and how they worked, read every psychology book I could get my hand on. But importantly I recognised the moving average system I had wasn’t working, I’d buy false breaks, overstay positions that were winners only to see them become gaping losses, get out of positions on stop and see the stock rocket to where I would have made a profit…

So, how did I get here?


I discovered pure charting, and read every book on the subject I could find. I did candle stick charts, technical patterns, and started to move ahead slowly again. But even this wasn’t enough. Sure, I got really good at recognising a range of candlestick patterns and interpreting bars and volume by the traditional technical analysis methods, but still these sudden shifts would happen as if from nowhere, and I thought “there must be a better way”. So, I discovered Elliott Wave (EW).

EW really helped since I was using derivatives that had a time component, and one of the biggest problems I suffered from was getting the direction right, and the magnitude, but got the timing wrong, hence lost because I didn’t buy enough time.

So, I got better and better at using wave structure to position from, and sort of began to understand how markets trend in waves. In retrospect this was pretty rudimentary, but it was a marked improvement even while this was driven primarily by the moving average mechanical system.

Then I had a break though. I found a really good trader online, I’d seen his calls, and they were consistently good. In fact they were better than good, they were amazing. He’d call exact dates to enter and exit. He knew which way a stock or index was trading, and when to get in on a pull back if long, or a rally to go short, with such precision, it took my breath away.

Interestingly, this guy took a lot of flak from the naysayers who just couldn’t accept what he was doing, because they didn’t understand his methods, and were trying to promote their own style at the expense of his. I thought, “wow, this guy is really good. It sure beats the pants off what I’m doing. Why don’t I have a look at that and see if I can work out how to do the same thing”.

So I began listening to his suggestions, and he gave me a few pointers. He suggested McLaren, and ditching all the indicators and focusing on straight bar chart and volume. This was hard to do at first, but I did it. The first day I watched that Foundation DVD, my head spun (this was only the first set by the way).

“What was I thinking for all that time trading” I thought. “I know NOTHING.”. That’s when I decided to halt all trading and focus on the new material to the exclusion of all else. I ate drank and breathed that material, poured over charts, took notes, tried to apply the knowledge and paper trade it.

Then suddenly I was doing all sorts of freaky things like working out resistance and support in price sometimes to the cent consistently, so that other traders I knew were impressed and started to take notice too. A couple of guys I knew got in on the act too, and we started to meet regularly to study the material together. Then a lot of pennies dropped, and I started to see counter trends, and patterns that blew my mind.

Later as time went on, I got the time factor DVD, and that changed everything. I had no idea about how important time was. It was a long time digesting all the ideas there (still don’t think I’ve worked all of these out yet either), and I started to accumulate a lot of Gann’s materials, and sought out people using Gann.

Mostly there were a lot of (in my view) flimsy so called “Gann” systems and approaches out there that in no way resembled what I was learning. I still think there is a lot of bunk out there masquerading as “Gann” that either has little to do with it, or used outdated ineffective methods, and the course charges had to be seen to be believed.

So, my little group flourished, and I really got my head around the material, but my mentor kept saying, "you haven’t got it yet". This was incredibly frustrating for a long, long time. But finally, I was able to make some really good trades and suddenly a huge “aha” moment happened when I was able to really see support and resistance in time and price using the time cycles.

Many have seen my work in action, and it’s up to the individual to determine if they think this approach is worthwhile. Just think about this though, I don’t have a course to sell, so there’s no ulterior motive there. The fact that I keep my core IP to myself should tell people something. If I was a dog and pony show course seller, I’d be promoting my site and selling materials and courses etc. But I don’t. My focus is on trading the market as effectively as possible for me. That’s it.

What I have done is to try to return the favour for the support generously given to me for those who need the help. I really don’t have an ego stake in this, I just love the art for itself. I am passionate about it, and love to share this passion with like minds. So, whatever nonsense goes on at the periphery, this is my prime motivation.


Regards



Magdoran

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Now about that ZINC chart.



Thought you missed it!

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

We really should do another thread for this...people are going to miss something really important on the XAO

ASX.G

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

happy to see Moggies XAO chart as well.

But as usual deflection from the question.
Moggie types a lot but really says very little.

Soon as you discuss and question Moggies analysis it becomes a battle.
He's more evasive than a politician.

Moggie the ZINC CHART

Then lets have a look at your XAO chart.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

One thing I have noticed among the Gann practioners in particular Yogi, is that they come up with quite a few dates that are deemed to being significant. My question to them is, how do you know which dates might be significant and which ones are not? How does one go about trading from these dates and how do establish the magnitude of a move following a "key date"?

In my own work throughout the years I have tried very hard to narrow down the possibilities/probabilities and try and stack the cards in my favour for possible trades. Especially with regard to reducing the vast amount of EW alternate scenarios. Have tried to do this a number of ways, and presently looking at another different form of TIME analysis(not Gann related)

With regard to the amount of possible dates in the Gann analysis, I think Glenn Neely summed it up pretty well when he looked at it. He correctly made the point that a method should look at reducing the amount of possibilities not increase them.

By the same token I respect that that it is possible on occasion the make both price and time forecasts using this method and as Mag has demonstrated in the past. Once again how significant a forecast date may be, does not easily seem to be determined by this analysis. That is not to say that it cannot be done using this method though.

Cheers

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

We really should do another thread for this...people are going to miss something really important on the XAO

ASX.G

lol ASX.G!

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

a few 'live-time' traded charts would address most of the questions that are out there Magdoran. can't be that tough, surely.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

a few 'live-time' traded charts would address most of the questions that are out there Magdoran. can't be that tough, surely.

Hello all and Edwood,


It’s this simple: tech/a is hell bent on extracting both wavepicker’s and my IP, and has been at us to divulge what we are doing for a long time. No dice for the duck. He can quack all he wants, but it’ll be a cold day in hell before he gets one modicum of our work.

This is because tech has insulted both wavepicker and I in PMs and has been an ardent trouble maker for years (on other sites – this is not a new attack from him, just a repetition of the tired old cliché’s). At one point I thought we’d reached an accommodation, only to find he was back to his old abusive tricks again.

I will post what I like, when I like, in my own good time.

If people are really interested please read my posts, especially the ones that direct them to both past and current forecasts and examples of my work that I have already posted. There are a host of charts and histories out there if you look for them. This bullying by tech is not new, and he does this all the time with me, and has for years. Sometimes you just get tired of his selective memory on this subject, and every so often he trots this nonsense out for new people who don’t know his belligerent history…

Hence, here is a taste of what is out there. I’ve even made it simple enough for people to just click through the post and thread links, how’s that?

The best case in point as I keep saying is on the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread, where tech was doing exactly the same nonsense, but despite his rudeness I actually put up some charts and ran through the process at a high level. I posted up then as much IP as I’m likely to post. See post 29 below and read on from there:

Hello barney

BHP example:

See the real chart provided with the BHP commentary on the “Potential swing trades” thread where once again tech was even discussing this but conveniently forgets my work yet again with that selective memory of his:

To me this is still bullish, and expect BHP to reach one of the price targets around 23rd Feb ($32, 30.16, 31.07, 29.54).

XAO example:

This is the most salient example of my work so far, and I have even gone to the trouble of setting up links for you:

First post of the projection for the XAO high in the “Zinc the metal for 2006” thread on 22 January 2007

my best shot guess currently for the XAO is a bullish drive of some kind into a top around the 24th of Feb

Actual forecast for the XAO February high 01 February 2007 on the “Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques”

24 February 2007 may be a significant date for the XAO, with 06 February 2007 as a minor increment, and 01 April 2007 as a major increment.

Essentially I’d expect a high on the 24th Feb if the time cycle I see is correct, (but if this is exceeded, may see a blow off into 01 April for a high). So the actual high may be + or – 1 trading day from 23 Feb or 26 Feb (22 – 27), but would expect the high on either the Friday or the Monday.

Price forecast for the XAO top in the ZFX – Zinifex on 17 February 2007:

For the XAO I have 23-24 Feb as a key time point, and suspect we may see a top of some sort come in here. It may be a major or a minor pull back if my cycle analysis holds true (XAO index target is 6025.31, or 6078.40 – in that order) or the next critical time I see is 01 April depending on how the market plays out.

Series of comments warning people of an impending correction:

February 23 2007:

"Ring, RING!"

Key warning 26 February 2007

I’m not a doom and gloom merchant, and I don’t have a crystal ball either. What I do have is the capacity to analyse the patterns of trend, and to imagine the future, and build scenarios and assign probabilities to those possible outcomes. I’m looking for an opportunity to profit substantially from the short side when this market terminates. Knowing the patterns which precede this kind of event, and positioning correctly is the key to taking advantage of this kind of move.

That means taking action when your methods allow you to perceive a pattern that has a probability of being terminal, and determining the most appropriate strategy...

I have commented on various threads recently about the potential danger signs I see technically to this trend...

I see a good probability of a pull back in a lot of stocks in the not too distant future. If it’s a quick pull back, this can still offer great opportunities, both shorting, then entering long if a bullish continuation is signalled. If there is a big correction, those on the short side will clean up very nicely.

P.S. Sceptical? Just have a look at my various posts from well before where I identified Feb 24 as a significant date (Zinc thread, trading the SPI Gann thread, ZFX thread -where I gave 6025 as the target for the 23rd Feb, and many others) Mag.

On the “International Index Trading” thread you can look at the current DAX call (particularly posts 327, 350 ) - you may find this of interest to your recent DAX trade if you look at my posts chronologically with the charts (don’t forget that the actual DAX trading date is one day behind the published dates):

The DAX has reached a key date and found resistance (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).

Assuming the cycle I have been using is correct, this is a point where I would expect at least a halt in the bullish drive here, maybe into the June 08 increment to find support, but may pull back further.

Last night's price action looks to me like the DAX has found some support, and would expect a brief rally from here

Now, I’ll put that more simply in English from the above paragraph – the pattern is to move sharply down (as it’s done), find support, and then trend into 20 July for a high. Currently I’m favouring this as the most probable forecast with the current data.

I haven’t had time to link the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread but the projections there are also relevant.

You may also wish to view the US market calls (post 326 and 418), on the “International Index Trading” thread and the Gold call on the Gold thread which are currently running real time.

This is certainly a turbulent time in the markets, but I still think the US market is bullish despite the marked bearish price action on the Shanghai composite.

The S&P 500 and the Dow both look like they should have a brief and minor pause or pull back (suspect 1-4 trading days), and then I’d expect some kind of bullish rally.

Overall, while these cycles are evident, I remain bullish on the US market. (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).

Current musings on the S&P 500

For past examples have a look back on the “Trading the SPI Gann Technique” thread and you’ll find a series of calls there, the most salient being the XAO call which was made a month out, and the supporting call for the DAX is there too.

There is also a current call on the gold thread too, but again, haven’t had time to do links for this. Also, the Zinc example goes right back through the ZFX thread, hence may be of interest too, but this takes time to set up. Please appreciate that I’m doing all the research that you guys could do if you went back chronologically through threads.

So Edwood, please take the time to go through your own charts in line with my posts, and really examine the work honestly, and see what you think.

Hope that helps…


Mag

P.S. Time for bed, YAWN!

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker---EXACTLY

Moggie.
I have no interest in your IP (Whatever IP is).

The exact point I make about Gann analysis Wavepicker has managed to put into words and I have placed into graphic picures in the ZINC example.

I dont know what it is but all practitioners of Gann avoid direct questions and start attacking the person.
My and Edwood's questions I see as legitimate.The sort of question most would ask who have seen the proponderance of "Pressure points" and the sad lack of trading application of GANN by its exponents.

There is a ZINC chart up there with questions attached---all you do is avoid directly answering it.

This should serve as a warning to anyone considering education in GANN as this is the type of circular,avoidance you will encounter from practitioners.

Again an observation from my own experience when directly questioning GANN practitioners.

I think Moggie has summed it up IN HIS case well.
"I just love the art for itself."--- Its a never ending challenge to refine to a point where you CAN apply it. As you have stated your working continually on the "Time" component. Seems you fully understand my questions---you dont have an answer.

Application isnt a priority----personally Moggie I doubt you trade---well consistently anyway.Which explains the lack of practical application.

Thats fine and NOT a personal attack simply an observation.

To apply the likes of Gann and Elliott timelines I dont think you need to be spot on anyway.Infact to trade profitably you dont need time at all.
Handy yes---a prerequisite to profit NO.

Moggie this ISNT ABOUT YOU.
Its about the APPLICATION of the ANALYSIS.

I'll have a look at your other references.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: XAO Analysis

One thing I have noticed among the Gann practioners in particular Yogi, is that they come up with quite a few dates that are deemed to being significant. My question to them is, how do you know which dates might be significant and which ones are not? How does one go about trading from these dates and how do establish the magnitude of a move following a "key date"?

'picker, this trading stuff is not exactly rocket-science ...
there IS only 3 scenarios ... 3 positions we can take, at ANY point in time:

long, short or standing aside

Significance of the dates varies with the importance of the associated
geometry ... again, very simple stuff.

If we use our astroanalysis to COMPLEMENT our regular TA, then it is
also relatively easy to guage the strength (astro) and extent of move(TA).


In my own work throughout the years I have tried very hard to narrow down the possibilities/probabilities and try and stack the cards in my favour for possible trades. Especially with regard to reducing the vast amount of EW alternate scenarios. Have tried to do this a number of ways, and presently looking at another different form of TIME analysis(not Gann related)

" ... vast amount of EW alternate scenarios" ... and that's
EXACTLY where ew falls down as a reliable trading methodology ... there's
simply TOO MANY alternate scenarios ... so many, in fact, that even the
EW proponents can agree on even WHERE to start, in many instances ... !~!


With regard to the amount of possible dates in the Gann analysis, I think Glenn Neely summed it up pretty well when he looked at it. He correctly made the point that a method should look at reducing the amount of possibilities not increase them.

Using Gann's mechanical analysis of speed lines and such-like
can also throw up as many possibilities, as there is traders (interpretations),
but ASTROANALYSIS requires no such interpretation, instead we are dealing
with NATURAL cycles, that NO MAN CAN CHANGE ... that means, when that
same geometry is repeated, we should see a similar result in the markets.

..... no, we don't get it right EVERY time, but that is our own shortcoming,
in NOT understanding ALL the combinations of aspects (geometry) in the
heavens.

Almost every day, we learn a little more about exactly how this astrostuff
works in our lives ... right now, we are only just scratching the surface !~!

... and those skeptix that criticize such work, WITHOUT having STUDIED
the relevant astronomy/astrology are simply trumpeting their own ignorance
to the world, at large !~!

By the same token I respect that that it is possible on occasion the make both price and time forecasts using this method and as Mag has demonstrated in the past. Once again how significant a forecast date may be, does not easily seem to be determined by this analysis. That is not to say that it cannot be done using this method though.

Cheers

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker---EXACTLY

Moggie.
I have no interest in your IP (Whatever IP is).

The exact point I make about Gann analysis Wavepicker has managed to put into words and I have placed into graphic picures in the ZINC example.

I dont know what it is but all practitioners of Gann avoid direct questions and start attacking the person.
My and Edwood's questions I see as legitimate.The sort of question most would ask who have seen the proponderance of "Pressure points" and the sad lack of trading application of GANN by its exponents.

There is a ZINC chart up there with questions attached---all you do is avoid directly answering it.

This should serve as a warning to anyone considering education in GANN as this is the type of circular,avoidance you will encounter from practitioners.

Again an observation from my own experience when directly questioning GANN practitioners.

I think Moggie has summed it up IN HIS case well.
"I just love the art for itself."--- Its a never ending challenge to refine to a point where you CAN apply it. As you have stated your working continually on the "Time" component. Seems you fully understand my questions---you dont have an answer.

Application isnt a priority----personally Moggie I doubt you trade---well consistently anyway.Which explains the lack of practical application.

Thats fine and NOT a personal attack simply an observation.

To apply the likes of Gann and Elliott timelines I dont think you need to be spot on anyway.Infact to trade profitably you dont need time at all.
Handy yes---a prerequisite to profit NO.

Moggie this ISNT ABOUT YOU.
Its about the APPLICATION of the ANALYSIS.

I'll have a look at your other references.

You see, this is the kind of BS you get with tech. I get so sick of his circular arguments, where he keeps repeating the same argument over and over irrespective of whatever anyone else says. His views are set in concrete, and nothing anyone else says will change his view.

He’s like a stuck record – he attacks your integrity, ignores the logic of your argument, twists what you say, and accuses you of being evasive when you directly address his sophistry head on.

Then he pigeon holes people, just like a racist would in Alabama during the height of the race riots. Once Tech tars someone with a brush, they forever have those warped attributes in his mind, and then he attacks the reality and goes into denial. This is a sick, sick mind here. A complete psychopath in action.

He becomes obsessed with attacking the straw man creations of his, which is why no one can change tech’s mind, because he warps everything into the fantasy world he constructs in his mind. You just can’t have a constructive dialogue with someone who is this far out of touch with reality. I’ve tried to develop a constructive relationship with him, believe me. It is a struggle, and it’s not the responsibility of anyone on ASF to be his wet nurse.

Just see the conversations on the Improving chart analysis thread, and many of the interactions after this, when he slipped back into his tirades. What caused the renewal of hostilities with him sending wavepicker and I abusive PMs? Reality is what did it. I’ll say more in detail in the next post.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker---EXACTLY

Moggie.
I have no interest in your IP (Whatever IP is).

The exact point I make about Gann analysis Wavepicker has managed to put into words and I have placed into graphic picures in the ZINC example.

I dont know what it is but all practitioners of Gann avoid direct questions and start attacking the person.
My and Edwood's questions I see as legitimate.The sort of question most would ask who have seen the proponderance of "Pressure points" and the sad lack of trading application of GANN by its exponents.

There is a ZINC chart up there with questions attached---all you do is avoid directly answering it.

This should serve as a warning to anyone considering education in GANN as this is the type of circular,avoidance you will encounter from practitioners.

Again an observation from my own experience when directly questioning GANN practitioners.

I think Moggie has summed it up IN HIS case well.
"I just love the art for itself."--- Its a never ending challenge to refine to a point where you CAN apply it. As you have stated your working continually on the "Time" component. Seems you fully understand my questions---you dont have an answer.

Application isnt a priority----personally Moggie I doubt you trade---well consistently anyway.Which explains the lack of practical application.

Thats fine and NOT a personal attack simply an observation.

To apply the likes of Gann and Elliott timelines I dont think you need to be spot on anyway.Infact to trade profitably you dont need time at all.
Handy yes---a prerequisite to profit NO.

Moggie this ISNT ABOUT YOU.
Its about the APPLICATION of the ANALYSIS.

I'll have a look at your other references.

You be the judge:

Here’s the facts: For all of tech’s ability as a chartist, he was caught completely by surprise when the corrective move happened from 28 February onwards.

Tech does not accept that I’d figured out a highly probable time and index level point for the XAO to hit a high on February 23 2007. Just look through my published comments around this time to see what I was thinking in post 534 above, get out your own chart of the All Ordinaries index, and follow my comments and make up your own mind.

I have presented my evidence that I was fully aware that a correction in my view was a high probability, and said so. For those who are interested (and if you’re sick of this nonsense, then I can sympathise, I’ve endured this crap from tech for years), please evaluate the evidence and come to your own conclusion on this issue.

This recent tirade of tech’s stems I think from a combination of jealousy, and the need to tear down an alternative way of looking at the market that he doesn’t understand, by any means possible.

He feigns interest, but his real motivation is to attack and destroy, discredit and abuse. If he really was interested in an open and constructive discussion, he’d do as others have done like Lesm for example (see his approach in the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread).

This should serve as a warning to anyone considering education in GANN as this is the type of circular,avoidance you will encounter from practitioners.

Now, how exactly is putting up all the evidence in post 534 avoidance? How is posting up forecasts ahead of time (as tech has consistently been demanding for years) “avoidance”? How is responding with charts and comments in the “Improving Chart Analysis”, and the “Potential swing trades” threads - “Avoidance”?

What does he want? He calls for charts to look at the process of Analysis. When this is done, he switches to saying “how is this applied”. When this is clearly demonstrated by examples of entry and exit rules in post 512 on this thread he reverts to his next piece of sophistry and says:

I dont know what it is but all practitioners of Gann avoid direct questions and start attacking the person.
My and Edwood's questions I see as legitimate.The sort of question most would ask who have seen the proponderance of "Pressure points" and the sad lack of trading application of GANN by its exponents.

Does this not seem a little biased? He has imposed his judgment yet again without even looking at the counter arguments.

The fact that I've posted both charts, forecasts and numerous responses to questions is not recognised, and this is labelled “avoidance”. How would we describe tech’s behaviour? Belligerent? Caustic? Psychopathic? Bigoted? Fanatical? Harassing? Abusive? I’m sure you can think of some more.

This is why debating tech is pointless. He just doesn’t acknowledge anything that doesn’t conform to his narrow views, then twists any other comment and selectively quotes anything to support his false conclusion. Then he uses the tactic of discrediting the other person saying that they are reverting to “personal attacks”, when it has been him all along who has initiated the slur in the first place.

Application isnt a priority----personally Moggie I doubt you trade---well consistently anyway.Which explains the lack of practical application.

Thats fine and NOT a personal attack simply an observation.

This is how he moves to attack the integrity of the person he is debating.

Apparently I don’t trade at all, and if I did, it couldn’t be profitable.

And if it was profitable then there is a lack of application.

And if there isn’t a lack of application, I’m hiding something because I’m not posting up all my IP (that’s Intellectual Property – basically original ideas).

If I post up a chart, then I’m not showing how you’d trade a set up. If I outline how to position in an example, then he reverts to the line about Gann practitioners launching personal attacks – you can’t satisfy him with logic. What he wants is for you to agree with his view. It is just like a religious fanatic – reality has no relevance.

This is his never ending circular approach. But he never actually addresses the inherent logic raised by anyone else if it refutes his inflexible viewpoint. This is why I have concluded that it is pointless discussing anything with tech.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

Zinc Campaign Explained.


This is the full Zinc campaign as it unfolded chronologically, warts and all. It was quite accurate in places, and failed in others in terms of my evolving ability to interpret the time cycles effectively, but interestingly, the cycle remained valid throughout once it was correctly calibrated.

There are two levels that people seem to want to understand: one is about the analysis, the other is how to use this analysis in order to build a trading system with entry and exit rules.

I maintain that in both there is a lot of flexibility depending on the individuals goals, time frame, money management and expectancy choices, choice of instrument, level of risk tolerance, and any other relevant preferences (just like any style of trading).

In later posts I will explain my trading rules for translating the analysis into trades by dividing the posted charts up into scenario sections. This will illustrate an example of how the analysis can be used in order to develop a trading plan. This is because trying to fit everything including all the charts into one post would be too large, hence I’ll deal with the whole campaign in installments.

Below is the chronological order of posts that everyone can access at their leisure, and I’d suggest getting a zinc chart, and following the action with the posts. For the best results, if you have a “training mode” function to wind back the data to the day of the post, this would really help you to put yourself in the position of the analyst without the latter price action. Don’t forget that the post dates are a day ahead of the actual price action because of the trading time for the LME market:


Chronological posts with Zinc charts:

17 February 2007: ZFX – Zinifex thread.

How long will the decline last, how long will the basing last, and how much momentum would a wave 5 have, and for how long? Too early for me to forecast this currently – but I’m working on it.

23 February 2007: ZFX – Zinifex thread.

Latest Update to the Zinc musings chart...

27 February 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Current Zinc chart...

27 February 2007: ZFX – Zinifex

Zinc may be about to turn here. Working on ZFX itself, but think if Zinc does pull back, so will ZFX in line with Zinc.

The 28th Feb +/- one trading day will be a significant time point, and if we get a high here, should see a continuation of the bear drive along the concept in the chart.

It is conceivable that there is a retest of the high around 12 March, or could see a low here. This is a key increment, and will help to verify the scenario outlined in the existing chart.

05 March 2007: ZFX – Zinifex

Key chart!!!

Here’s my current musings on Zinc.
...
Here’s my “each way bet” as the peons would say – this baby is going down

18 April 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Key Chart!!!

The previous forecast for Zinc was invalidated when a strong drive occurred towards the end of the cycle (15 April target). The recent price action finding SUPPORT at a HIGHER LOW near the 15th April may well be very bullish, and suggest a very short sharp bullish drive.

This kind of premature termination in the price action with cycles has happened before. I have been studying these in many markets and different eras for quite a while now, and have built a range of caveats for determining trading probabilities. This pattern indicates a fast move UP, usually into a key time increment and price level. In the chart below I have projected key times and prices using a standard method.

My primary thinking in probability here is a strong drive UP into the price increments I have listed on the right hand side of the chart into 21 May in a blow off kind of move. The key is for multiple higher lows, and the lows around the 15th April should not be broken (although it is possible for this to happen in an exhaustive pattern down, then a strong bullish move to eventuate, but less likely – depends on the pattern).

Typically with this kind of (McLaren) “Jamming up” move after a strong bearish counter trend to the bullish drive in the weekly chart results in a fast exhaustive bullish move up of some kind, and then a retest of the lows once a high is made usually below the major high (my primary suspicion is a retest to find support on the 20 July).

The idea is this may be a response to the struggling bearish move down which failed to obtain a capitulation style bearish exhaustion, which may yield a sudden sharp optimistic bullish move which quickly exhausts (suspect 21 May, or less likely 02 June +/- 1 trading day), retests the lows, then bases in order to resume the secular bullish drive.

18 April 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Key Chart

chart.

02 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Latest Zinc chart.

04 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Latest Zinc Chart

15 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

There is support in time and price as indicated in the attached chart. If this is a reversal as I suspect it is (or near to this level and time), this should yield a strong bullish drive into the 21 May (or beyond – hence have to see how Zinc moves into this date).

17 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Awwww, Frig, Zinc’s taking a bath – down over 4% - Really got the turning point wrong.

Learned something though – If the price action falls through these key points I’ve been working on like it did last night, it’s telling you something – there’s more to come! (in this case downside).

Actually this is quite an exciting breakthrough for me despite royally stuffing up the forecast. I doubt this will rally into the 21 May now, but should in fact turn here if I’ve got the cycle right. Maybe this is where the support comes in.

This totally destroys the pattern I thought I was seeing though. Oh, well, back to the drawing board – but certainly learned something here…

Fun, isn’t it?


Mag (wiping egg from face… Hahaha).

That concludes the chronological links to the actual posts. I will break this campaign into move by move scenarios, and show how to utilise this analysis and apply it to actual trading.

Please understand that doing this is a heavily time consuming activity, and I will update the scenarios as time permits.



Regards,



Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,

I see your point I am using Gann principles in my trading now, not to the same extent as Mag, but the basics i use are helping a lot.

I myself could never study for years then apply that's not me but I do agree with learning a long the way and doing your best. Which from what I have read in your posts and can say about your development you have done that as well.

I am truly amazed at what Mag, does and his knowledge of harmony and time projection. he has raw talent at it. I am a fan of Gann but i am far from the astrological stuff, I prefer to keep it simple. I dont know how easy it would be for Mag to explain it as with Gann from my little knowledge it starts to just click and you can see things, but that's all i can say on that. Mag your thoughts??

I also believe in what you have done with Tech Trader and how you have addaped to the current market situation and done so well in your system development.

You and Mag are like chalk and cheese very differnt but you are both successful that's all what counts in the market. I think people in here have a lot to learn from the both of you and there should be no contest.

No matter which way u choose to trade well known or your own methodology as long as you make a profit and are enjoying the challenge that's what matters.

Good trading.

Hello Trade IT,

I really appreciate your input and support!!!


Mag

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

cheers for the details Magdoran, interesting to track through it, am sure it must've taken a bit of time to pull it together - on a Sunday too!

had a look at one of your first Zinc charts & put a fib extension on wave A, projected to around 4,071 (thereabouts, I can't see the figures very well) on a 1.618 extension into C. Can't tell from the chart but would be interesting to see if there is any fib pattern in the no. of days for each move.

then went down a few of your posts & the C extension target comes up pretty similar to yours. no. of days could help to determine possible days to target & hence a time date.

have to say I don't profess to being an Elliott expert, find the fibs useful tho. out of interest - where did it turn from when it dropped 4%?

thanks again for taking the time to post and apologies to the XAO thread for getting so far off topic

Ed

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

Theres only one way to settle this, post your time and price estimates and a brief explanation behind your methodology..... We can revist in a few weeks and determine who was closer.

Hello steven1234,


You raise an excellent suggestion here.

But tech is unlikely to do this because his main style is based on lagging indicators. While I think he is improving in Elliott Wave, I suspect that he will weigh the odds of him making a better forecast than me, and conclude that the odds aren’t in his favour.

We have to remember that none of us have a crystal ball or the Holy Grail. All we have are methods that aim to achieve a consistently profitable edge.

My style is about trading swings with derivatives. Tech uses margin on shares, and has only recently been looking at CFDs. I’ve been trading all sorts of derivatives for years, and have in the past been contracted to conduct seminars in this area, hence the ground is not “even” between us on this basis.

But as Trade IT correctly says, our styles are chalk and cheese. Ironically, I think that for the type of bull market we’ve had since late 2002, his approach has been very successful and worked well in a nicely trending market. I have on previous occasions saluted his work on Reefcap with techtrader.

He at one point seemed to see some merit in what I was doing on the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread, but has since reverted to attack after I’d called the February 2007 high, and I suspect he’d been caught long with a lot of margin based positions based on his abusive PM he sent over, which triggered a deluge of denial about the call because he missed it and I didn’t.

Funny how some people channel their anger and shoot the messenger/prophet sometimes.

He just doesn’t get it. He still struggles with EW, and doesn’t really understand counter trends. Don’t get me wrong, in some ways he is an excellent technical analyst, he sees some patterns really well, and knows how to trade them. But there are patterns like ending diagonals, and especially time based counter trends he just doesn’t see.

Because he can’t see them, he believes they don’t exist. Over on RC he had a huge bun fight with some (mostly not very good) Gann traders, and since then attacked anyone using even one tiny component of “Gann”. To my knowledge though, he has never researched this area, or thoroughly read any Gann originals, or any of McLaren’s detailed course work (he has followed the commentary on McLaren’s site, but without understanding how it all works).

If I was to blindly attack techtrader, then I’d be guilty of the same flaw as tech, but I recognise the benefits and logic behind it. Personally I can see flaws in it, but realise that technical analysis involves trade offs. Hence I can see the positive elements in his work, and have never criticised his efforts, unlike how he has attacked mine.

He also tried to make out that I’m a “Gannist”, a label I reject. I’m a chartist first, and use elements of analysis from a range of sources, including Gann. But I’ve taken what works for me, and rejected other bits. But what I did was to actually do the research, so I can sort the wheat from the chaff in Gann, Elliott, and anything else that I take the time to study. He won’t do this.

But you can see his reactions to my posts (using the same user name) over on RC, and just read his rude and abusive comments there. I remained polite for a long time before I finally had enough of him.

Because of his personal attacks, this has cemented a personal view. It’s this simple. I have no more time for him.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Moggie re Zinc chart.

Wasnt that hard was it!

Lookforward to whatever else you put up on it.

So basically from the analysis on THIS chart there wasnt a profitable trade.

Eh fair enough.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: XAO Analysis

Apologies for ranting on topic.

Another way is to say it is that a doubling of the index from 1000 to 2000 is represented on the Y-Axis by the same 'length' of price as a doubling from 2000 to 4000 or 4000 to 8000.

On the attached chart you can see that during the greater up move which ran from '82 to '87 the market doubled more than two times. This bull market, by comparison, has barely doubled once in over 4 years. Its the duration (time) of this bull market that makes it significant. That combined with the otherwise benign nature of any pullbacks.

You will see from the chart that the '82-'87 run was significantly interupted by a somewhat deep pullback around Jan-Jun '84. The absense of such a hiccup during this bull market means that its longer in duration than the the one from '84 to '87. But the price moves have not been as aggressive. It's that old time-price interplay which is the favoured space of the Gann analysts.

And it makes a lot of sense too. I don't pretend to believe the world is as balanced as 1 unit of price for every 1 unit of time, because the real world is not...but the simple idea that in this bull market price has travelled less in more time should tell people that this bull market is less aggressive than the '82-'84-'87 move. When price and time are more balanced then in the real world fundamental factors have a greater chance of keeping up eg. productivity gains which translate to earnings (the real reason many buy and sell shares).

To stir the pot further, as an avid follower of technology the time we live in today is teeming with technology driven productivity gains. The limiting factor is the time to adapt and implement them into businesses and our daily lives (7 yrs since dotcom...long enough for use to learn how to say iPod). As an example, think of all the people who still don't use a GPS and drive around and around and around wasting time. The mass-adoption of this single tool alone will increase productivity out of sight.

I think there is more upside potential going forward than what people think.

Yup, TAG,


Good points, and I’m sorry this little “firefight” has interceded on this thread.

I did consider posting on another thread… I did start off on topic, so I hope you don’t mind if I extrapolate some ideas on Zinc as well as the XAO to throw some technical alternative perspectives up.

I figured if I yet again spell this stuff out for those who have missed it in the older threads, it may help them to see the logic for the XAO forecasts.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I responded to the focus on Zinc here by the way... I didn't select it...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello Trade IT,

I really appreciate your input and support!!!


Mag

No worries Magdoran, any time, I don't think you need to buckle to any pushing or shoving.

keep up the great work.

 

[tech/a]

Moggie.
I notice that the Gann grids in this case dont start from a significant low but from the higher low which you placed as a critical low which has so far held.

Surely this would have had a bearing on your time analysis and you could also have selected other significant Lows or Highs to give you timelines,there may have even been some confluence.

Why THAT low?