Guyana

[Dona Ferentes]

Today, we touch on Guyana because the conflict speaks to a bigger issue for investors: the end of the unipolar world.

Guyana, to refresh all our memories, is a tiny country with fewer than a million people on the northeast coast of South America. It shares a border with Venezuela. For over a century Venezuela has maintained that Guyana’s Esequibo region belongs to Venezuela.

At this point, though, the conflict is about oil and gas. In 2015, ExxonMobil made a major oil discovery off Guyana’s coast. Together with Hess and China's CNOOC, it’s been producing oil in Guyana since 2019. (The Esequibo region currently produces around 400,000 bpd, and that figure could top 1 million bpd by 2027.)

This has transformed Guyana into the fastest growing economy in the world. Last year, real GDP shot up 62.4%. It’s no wonder Venezuela wants to grab a slice.

On Sunday, Venezuelans voted to claim Guyana’s Esequibo region for itself. The vote wasn’t binding in any way. It was designed to give a translucent veneer of legitimacy to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s next steps.

Here’s Maduro holding up his new map of Venezuela on Tuesday, with what he’s calling Venezuela’s “new state.”

Source: The Guardian​

The Guyana Defense Force is “on high alert.” But it doesn’t have much weight to throw around. So of course, it’s turned to the US for help.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reaffirmed US support of Guyana’s sovereignty. And the US military planned to conduct flights alongside the Guyana Defense Force yesterday.

The US has good reason to protect the interests of US oil companies like ExxonMobil (and its investors). It doesn’t want Venezuela’s state oil company taking the 11 million barrels of recoverable oil and gas sitting off Guyana’s coast.

 

[Sean K]

Been following this with interest. This is classic deflection from internal political strife with encouragement from seeing Russias invasion without direct intervention from NATO. I think you’ll see an aircraft carrier floating through the Caribbean shortly.

 

[mullokintyre]

Venezuela is sinking into the sort of state that Argentina eventually became.
And in the same way that US oil interests will always overcome any of the bull**** American "Protecting Democracy" propaganda, the US will turn a blind eye.
As always, follow the money.
Money interests trump everything.
from Zero Hedge


The Biden administration says it is currently reviewing its sanctions policy on Maduro's Venezuela, after the country's top court blocked opposition leader María Corina Machado from becoming a presidential candidate. Her formal candidacy was initially banned for backing US sanctions against Caracas and for alleged corruption.

"The United States is currently reviewing our Venezuela sanctions policy, based on this development and the recent political targeting of democratic opposition candidates and civil society," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a fresh Saturday statement in response to the development.

It was only in October that the White House initiated most extensive rollback of Trump-era sanctions on Caracas, after a series of visits of high-level US officials to meet with counterparts in Caracas. The engagement came to fruition against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, which sent the US abroad in search of alternative energy resources.
Biden's easing of the sanctions was supposed to be based on President Nicolás Maduro agreeing to significant democratic reform and an even playing field in the 2024 election.

But as the Associated Press reviews, "Machado won a presidential primary held in October by the faction of the opposition backed by the U.S. She secured more than 90% of the vote despite the Venezuelan government announcing a 15-year ban on her running for office just days after she formally entered the race in June."

Clearly given that Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice has just upheld the ban on Friday, the Biden administration request didn't sink in, and its sanctions-easing gambit appears to have backfired.

Meanwhile, there are signs that Maduro ahead of the presidential election, expected for the latter half of 2024, has launched a new crackdown while accusing alleged conspirators against the government.

As is typical in Maduro's socialist Latin American country, the circumstances are highly bizarre:

Venezuelan authorities have arrested 32 civilians and soldiers after a months-long investigation into their alleged part in a US-backed "conspiracy" to assassinate President Nicolas Maduro, the prosecutor's office said Monday.
All suspects have "confessed and revealed information about the plans," Attorney General Tarek William Saab told reporters in Caracas. He said they had been accused of treason and "convicted" for their crimes.

In addition 11 other arrest warrants were issued, but most of these are reportedly in exile. Interestingly, Caracas authorities say they've known about the conspiracy for months, but they didn't want to derail the high-level talks with the US which appears to be ushering in some kind of slow rapprochement.

Here are the cast of external agencies now being blamed:

Padrino told the same press conference that an operation that started last year to uncover details of the alleged conspiracy was kept secret as it coincided with "talks" between Maduro and the United States that resulted in a prisoner swap.
He blamed the plot on the "far right," as the Maduro government usually refers to the opposition, with "support" of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

And to be expected, opposition candidate Machado is also being accused and has been linked to the conspiracy by police and intelligence. The Maduro government even says it has a video proving it. Machado has dismissed all of this as part of Maduro's "surreal and delirious plots." Without doubt the coming weeks and months are going to be interesting, and especially the reaction of the Biden White House - whether it backtracks are pursues further diplomatic "openings" with Maduro.

And now the Biden admin hypocrisy will be exposed for all to see as he is stuck between a rock of supporting an authoritarian dictator hell-bent on destroying democracy and a hard-place of rising oil prices (if sanctions are reinstated 200-300k less barrels of supply) and rising gasoline prices and that's not an election winner.

Bond investors know that elections always trump ethics and have mostly held onto their bets that the sanctions will remain suspended.

Government notes due in 2027 were quoted late Friday at 21.4 cents, according to indicative pricing compiled by Bloomberg, 2 cents lower than their high earlier this month but still far above the 10-cent range where they traded before the Barbados agreement.
It will be interesting to see how Biden spins the support of democracy-defying dictators overseas (Ukraine first and now Venezuela) while demagoguing the apparent democracy-destroying opposition domestically.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

bravo