Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GTP - Great Southern Plantations

Great, thanks Porper. The link i just read from Carmo has some good info on Gaps. Identifying the type of gap is as it seems, the most important step before initiating a position. I would be very interested in any other advice you have related to gap trading.

Thank you.
 
CanOz said:
Great, thanks Porper. The link i just read from Carmo has some good info on Gaps. Identifying the type of gap is as it seems, the most important step before initiating a position. I would be very interested in any other advice you have related to gap trading.

Thank you.


Canaussieuck, this link is a good starting point.I am certainly no expert but it is one of the simpler ways to trade (In my opinion).Very rigid rule based system that works well for me up to now.Look for low risk entries and stick to a rigid stop loss.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/gaps.htm
 
So Porper, looking at MRE today, would you say its an exhaustion gap? Very high volume.
 
The following article is copied from
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20086916-664,00.html#

AAco plans for a beefy result

Geoff Easdown

August 11, 2006 12:00am
Article from: Herald-Sun

AUSTRALIA's biggest beef producer says it is on track to report a solid second-half result after disclosing a 27 per rise in first-half profit.
Australian Agricultural Investments, which farms 9.5 million hectares of Northern Territory and Queensland with 528,578 cattle, reported net profit of $8.47 million to June 30 on total pre-tax earnings of $12.2 million.

Figures released to the exchange showed pre-tax revenue was $4.8 million down on the same period last year.

This was due to falling beef prices caused by Japan's decision to end its two-year ban on imports of United States meat.

The company's bottom line was held up by a $4.9 million profit from the sale of Wrotham Park Station, in northern Queensland for $53.5 million.

In a statement to the stock exchange, AAco chief executive Don Mackay said the company was well placed for a solid full-year performance.

"The excellent rainfall during the season extended two months longer than normal, " he said in the statement.

While some revenue generating activities were delayed, the market had also rallied.

The market was told that the indicator price for cattle had lifted 5 per cent since June 30.

"Should cattle prices remain at these levels, then the second half should provide a solid result," Mr MacKay said.

The company had also completed the $100 million acquisitions of Eva Downs and Anthony Lagoon cattle stations in the Northern Territory.

It had also boosted its wholesale beef business by acquiring the balance of Chefs Partner food service business in April.

"With Chefs now being an accredited exporter of beef, strong growth is expected from expansion into Asian and US markets," Mr Mackay said.

The company maintained its interim dividend at 7 a share, unfranked, payable on October 16 for scrip registered by September 20.

AAco shares closed down 2 yesterday at $1.85.

1. GTP saved AAC.

AAC recorded a 27% increase of HY pre-tax profit to $12.2m, which included a $4.9m profit in $53.5m sale of Wrotham Park Station to GTP.

2. How much investors of GTP cattle schemes will get after paying $5,000 for leasing 4 heads of cattle for 7 years?

AAC's 528,578 heads of cattle made $12.2 million earnings in total, so each head made ~$23 in HY (including the profit from Wrotham Park Station!).

So the investors will get ~$23*2*4*7=~$1288 at best for 4 cattle in 7 years. According to the contract, half of the above profit should go to GTP (don't forget GTP bought those cattle farms on bank loans bearing 8% pa interest), so the other half to investors will be only $644, or say 12.88% on their $5000 investment in 7 years. Thus I have no slightest doubt that the GTP cattle scheme investors will lose nearly all of their money in such an investment scam.
 
I know virtually nothing of the fundamentals of GTP, except for what I've read on this thread, and what I heard on Landline last weekend.
The share scheme outlined by Jackob whereby GTP investors invest in 4 cattle, appears to have certain parallels with other agricultural share schemes.
Some that come to mind are Olives, Aloe Vera and Ostriches.
Aloe Vera and Ostriches were disastrous investments that in many cases caused 100% of investors' funds to evaporate into thin air.
Olives.....the jury is still out. As a relatively new industry, the outcome of the olive investment schemes is as yet unknown. Various companies have been offering a certain number of olive trees for purchase or lease on a profit sharing arrangement. The investor of course never owns the land on which the trees grow, he/she makes (or loses) money solely on the ability of the trees to (hopefully) generate a net profit after the considerable production costs are paid.
Needless to say, the people managing the scheme set their management fees at a level that guarantees a healthy profit to themselves, regardless of whether or not the scheme makes money for investors.
These agricultural share schemes have a high failure rate, and I suspect that the olive share schemes will be another casuality. Nor would the GTP cattle scheme inspire my confidence.
After years of getting fleeced by bogus schemes that failed to live up to their promises, perhaps investors are finally starting to wake up to the considerable risks of sinking their capital into shared agricultural ventures. Maybe this gives us some insight into why GTP's share price has almost halved in the last two months.
Whatever the reasons, and irrespective of the fundamentals, GTP's stock price is heading in the wrong direction to make money from it, unless you're trading it short.
If GTP's fundamentals ever change to a degree that once again inspires investor confidence, this will be reflected in the chart changing from downtrend to uptrend.

Bunyip
 
Your first comment was the only one that made sense: you understand nothing about the fundamentals of great southern.

This is great stock to own and trade (on a fundamental basis) because next to no one understands the business and as such the stock moves around due to technical analysis.

This stock is so cheap at the moment it is trading at a massive discount to its cash and land NTA. MIS can finish tomorrow and there is still limited downside.
 
To help you guys out:

1. The financial model for the cattle project means investors will get back more than double their money over the next 7 years (the research estimates the after tax IRR of "up to 24.8%). Cattle businesses are complex so your “profitability per head” ratio using AAG is useless. GTP will not manage their cattle in the same way as AAG (for one thing AAG are expanding their heard which decreases profitability but adds to future growth). Have a look at the independent research on all of their projects if you actually want to know how they work. Try the PDS as well.
2. Bunyip your comment that “After years of getting fleeced by bogus schemes that failed to live up to their promises, perhaps investors are finally starting to wake up to the considerable risks of sinking their capital into shared agricultural ventures. Maybe this gives us some insight into why GTP's share price has almost halved in the last two months” is totally wrong. Did you see their sales figures this year. Massive increases in FUM. The shares have decreased because of speculation about the outcome of the enquiry and then after initial selling the technical analysts have sold it further.
3. The schemes are very profitable for Great Southern (hence it is a good company to own) but the schemes are still very worthwhile if you are paying high amounts of tax and can actually do something with the tax saved.
 
Portfolio said:
To help you guys out:


2. Bunyip your comment that “After years of getting fleeced by bogus schemes that failed to live up to their promises, perhaps investors are finally starting to wake up to the considerable risks of sinking their capital into shared agricultural ventures. Maybe this gives us some insight into why GTP's share price has almost halved in the last two months” is totally wrong. Did you see their sales figures this year. Massive increases in FUM. The shares have decreased because of speculation about the outcome of the enquiry and then after initial selling the technical analysts have sold it further.
3. The schemes are very profitable for Great Southern (hence it is a good company to own) but the schemes are still very worthwhile if you are paying high amounts of tax and can actually do something with the tax saved.

I couldn't care less about their sales figures. If the stock is heading south at a rate of knots, as GTP most certainly is, then all the good sales figures in the world are not going to enable you to make money from it, except for dividends.
If the long term outlook for the stock is as favourable as your comments suggest, then one day the market will recognise this fact by buying up the stock with sufficient enthusiasm to cause a new uptrend.
If or when that happens, I might consider buying it.
But in the meantime I'd sooner make the plunging stock price work to my advantage by shorting GTP, rather than hold a long position and see the value of my investment evaporating week by week while I hold on and hope that one day it'll come good.
Alternatively, I can invest in other stocks that are currently uptrending, or short other stocks that are currently downtrending, rather than invest in something like GTP that might (or might not) start uptrending at some time in the future.

Irrespective of whether GTP's cattle scheme is bogus or legitimate, the bogus agricultural schemes of the past have left something of a sour taste in the mouth of investors. Accordingly, some investors are wary of GTP's cattle scheme.
In the case of GTP, their wariness may be founded or unfounded - I neither know nor care. But such wariness definitely does exist towards agricultural schemes in general, including GTP's scheme, and is not conductive to a buoyant stock price.
Hence we see GTP caught in a savage downtrend, and until the markets perception of GTP changes, the downtrend will continue.

Bunyip
 
Portfolio said:
...The financial model for the cattle project means investors will get back more than double their money over the next 7 years (the research estimates the after tax IRR of "up to 24.8%). ... Have a look at the independent research on all of their projects if you actually want to know how they work. ...

Those "research" reports may not be really "independent" at all. What we don't know was how much GTP have paid for "independent reports". Westpoint also had good "independent" reports and pay a hefty 10% commission to "planners", but nevertheless collapsed.

If cattle could earn 24.8% pa for the investors, then since shearing 50-50 with GTP, the total profit should be 49.6% pa, or say p/e=2. AAC, being a company of p/e=20+, would be a biggest fool in the market to sell that property 10+ time cheaper to GTP. A p/e=2 price is just not possible anywhere in Australia.

Just wait for at most one year and see how much (24.8% pa as you said or a meagre 1-2% pa as I said) the cattle investors would get from GTP.
 
Jackob said:
Those "research" reports may not be really "independent" at all. What we don't know was how much GTP have paid for "independent reports". Westpoint also had good "independent" reports and pay a hefty 10% commission to "planners", but nevertheless collapsed.

If cattle could earn 24.8% pa for the investors, then since shearing 50-50 with GTP, the total profit should be 49.6% pa, or say p/e=2. AAC, being a company of p/e=20+, would be a biggest fool in the market to sell that property 10+ time cheaper to GTP. A p/e=2 price is just not possible anywhere in Australia.

Just wait for at most one year and see how much (24.8% pa as you said or a meagre 1-2% pa as I said) the cattle investors would get from GTP.

In other words, Jackob is telling us that when a company puts out a favourable report about any aspect of its business, prudence should tell us to take the information 'with a grain of salt'.
I certainly agree with him. In my early days of involvement in the stockmarket I was an avid reader of company reports, the Financial Review, the business pages of The Australian, brokers reports, and a bit further down the track, Shares magazine.
Over time I became increasingly dubious about the usefulness of the information presented. In many cases the unfavourable events that unfolded a bit further down the track in relation to a company, were in sharp contrast to the earlier positive reports about that same company.
Companies naturally paint as rosy a picture as possible about their business, even if it means stretching the truth.
Brokers and financial journalists are equally adept at spinning yarns and misrepresenting the facts.
Have the facts been mispreresented with regard to GTP? Time will tell...the chart will tell the story.

Bunyip
 
yeah and thats always good for business!
 
ITC does not offer carbon credits as the wood is eventually used for a disposable purpose, eg making paper, hence any carbon credit gained during growth than has to be paid for in its subsequent use. GTP is no different. It would onnly be a credit if it got locked up and never touched again.
 
Up 4.1% so far today. Anyone have any news as to why or is this just the buyers coming back after it was over-sold?
 
namkey said:
Up 4.1% so far today. Anyone have any news as to why or is this just the buyers coming back after it was over-sold?

Will it surprise with its final result?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 41.7 44.8 54.0 58.7
DPS 14.0 15.0 17.0 18.0


thx

MS
 
namkey said:
Up 4.1% so far today. Anyone have any news as to why or is this just the buyers coming back after it was over-sold?

Why do you say it was over sold ?


Is this from a technical point of view or fundamental ? ;)
 
I was actually just suggesting that buyers were coming back after it was over-sold. No fundamental or technical backing behind that guess of what was happening :p
 
namkey said:
I was actually just suggesting that buyers were coming back after it was over-sold. No fundamental or technical backing behind that guess of what was happening :p

Coming back up pretty well the last week or so. Gives namkey's comment some credence.

Duckman
 
Duckman#72 said:
Coming back up pretty well the last week or so. Gives namkey's comment some credence.

Duckman

was teh annual result above ro belwo expectatiosn u think?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 41.7 48.6 58.1 63.8
DPS 14.0 19.0 24.0 29.0
 
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