GTP - Great Southern Plantations

[Jackob]

If it closes around this level today (in the $2.50s), it will have broken below the low of October last year and be looking back to 2004 for support levels.

Maybe Split Enz were wrong, and the history of 2000-2001 will repeat - 50 cents here we come!

GP

GreatPig,

We are in the mid of an avalanche, aren’t we?

Huge volumes today – 5 million shares changed hands so far.

The crucial $2.66 support was broken trough without a hiccup!

If GTP were heading to, as you suggested, $0.50 for support (well, I hope not, but I can't exclude this probability), then this would certainly imply GTP would go under. Last time when GTP was $0.50/s a few years ago, it bore no debt at all, but this time around it has TREES $200m, bank loans $250m plus another $200m bank loan under negotiation – a total of $650m debt, or say $2.10 per share!

 

[Julia]

I haven't visited this thread for some time, having sold out a couple of months ago.

Just wondering if all of you guys who are exchanging views about GTP at present are actually holding the stock, and if so, are you not even considering baling out?

Julia

 

[TheAnalyst]

Hi Julia

I bought $3000 worth of warrants Tuesday and sold them today.

 

[Jackob]

Julia,

I hope none of the forum is still holding GTP... too risky...

... Another 12c plunge today… Huge volume of 6.5m shares… A real avalanche!

The next stop looks like at $2.10-$2.20. If it wouldn’t hold… then goes to under $2…

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Duckman#72]

I haven't visited this thread for some time, having sold out a couple of months ago.

Just wondering if all of you guys who are exchanging views about GTP at present are actually holding the stock, and if so, are you not even considering baling out?

Julia

Hi Julia

Bought some more in my super fund at $2.55 today. Looking forward I think it will be a steal. No profit downgrades. Good management. Sure tax breaks are a grey cloud at the moment but I cannot see why Great Southern is in a worse position (long term) than Gunns or Timbercorp.

I might look a goose in the short term but long term gains will come. And great P/E ratio.

Duckman

 

[bunyip]

I've been following this thread for months now and reading with amusement all the reasons why GTP is such a good buy. Meanwhile the stock keeps heading south, and yet there are people who keep buying it.
Bloody hell......no wonder so many people get hammered in the stockmarket!

I've brought this up before and it's worth repeating......Once stocks start downtrending they usually go down further than anyone thought they'd go. You get a 'bargain' today but next week or next month you see you've paid too much.
Some of them stop going down only when the company goes broke. Meanwhile, you're tying up your money in a deadbeat stock, money that could be invested in a good performer. The lost opportunity cost is killing you more than most of you ever realise.
Right now there are stocks that are going up solidly. Anyone who can't see the benefit of investing in these stocks, rather than in those that are sinking like the Titanic, must have an aversion to making money.

If you think GTP or any other stock has good prospects in the longer term, then it's prudent to hold off investing in it until it shows signs of confirming your view. There's only one way it can do this.....it must start uptrending.

Buying plunging stocks is not investment, it's GAMBLING.

Bunyip

 

[TheAnalyst]

Exactly, you are definitely right on this point Bunyip.....and obviously there is something more dramatic happening here than the whole market is aware of.

 

[michael_selway]

I've been following this thread for months now and reading with amusement all the reasons why GTP is such a good buy. Meanwhile the stock keeps heading south, and yet there are people who keep buying it.
Bloody hell......no wonder so many people get hammered in the stockmarket!

I've brought this up before and it's worth repeating......Once stocks start downtrending they usually go down further than anyone thought they'd go. You get a 'bargain' today but next week or next month you see you've paid too much.
Some of them stop going down only when the company goes broke. Meanwhile, you're tying up your money in a deadbeat stock, money that could be invested in a good performer. The lost opportunity cost is killing you more than most of you ever realise.
Right now there are stocks that are going up solidly. Anyone who can't see the benefit of investing in these stocks, rather than in those that are sinking like the Titanic, must have an aversion to making money.

If you think GTP or any other stock has good prospects in the longer term, then it's prudent to hold off investing in it until it shows signs of confirming your view. There's only one way it can do this.....it must start uptrending.

Buying plunging stocks is not investment, it's GAMBLING.

Bunyip

hehe what "good" stocks do u knwo of atm?

GTP may start uptrending if the full year results are better than expected and the future earnings guidance shows signs of sustained growth and reduced risk, if any

thx

MS

 

[bunyip]

hehe what "good" stocks do u knwo of atm?

GTP may start uptrending if the full year results are better than expected and the future earnings guidance shows signs of sustained growth and reduced risk, if any

thx

MS

Michael,

My scan has come up with more than 30 stocks in the ASX 300 that are in decent uptrends. If I was to look outside the ASX 300 there would obviously be a lot more.
But rather than hand them to you on a plate, I'll let you find them for yourself.
I presume you do know how to recognise uptrending stocks? If not, I'll be happy to recommend some good reading material that will teach you this invaluable skill....I believe you'd find it a worthwhile compliment to your fundamental analysis.

Bunyip

 

[Jackob]

I've been following this thread for months now and reading with amusement all the reasons why GTP is such a good buy. Meanwhile the stock keeps heading south, and yet there are people who keep buying it.
Bloody hell......no wonder so many people get hammered in the stockmarket!

I've brought this up before and it's worth repeating......Once stocks start downtrending they usually go down further than anyone thought they'd go. You get a 'bargain' today but next week or next month you see you've paid too much.
Some of them stop going down only when the company goes broke. Meanwhile, you're tying up your money in a deadbeat stock, money that could be invested in a good performer. The lost opportunity cost is killing you more than most of you ever realise.
Right now there are stocks that are going up solidly. Anyone who can't see the benefit of investing in these stocks, rather than in those that are sinking like the Titanic, must have an aversion to making money.

If you think GTP or any other stock has good prospects in the longer term, then it's prudent to hold off investing in it until it shows signs of confirming your view. There's only one way it can do this.....it must start uptrending.

Buying plunging stocks is not investment, it's GAMBLING.

Bunyip

Michael,

My scan has come up with more than 30 stocks in the ASX 300 that are in decent uptrends. If I was to look outside the ASX 300 there would obviously be a lot more.
But rather than hand them to you on a plate, I'll let you find them for yourself.
I presume you do know how to recognise uptrending stocks? If not, I'll be happy to recommend some good reading material that will teach you this invaluable skill....I believe you'd find it a worthwhile compliment to your fundamental analysis.

Bunyip

Well said, Bunyip. I highly appreciate your comments.

I also would like to know what good reading materials you would recommend for learning how to recognise uptrending stocks.

Many thanks.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Me to brother Bunyip.....Allouakbour

 

[abucs]

Great Southern Plantations

Look guys, anybody can say a stock is no good when it's heading south.

Most of you guys are short term orientated and I don't really see the point in continuuing posting if there is no intelligent comments on the stock.

In five years I've gone from zero to a dividend stream of $150,000 to $200,000 a year with a house thrown in so I am not taking lessons from people like you Bunyip.

I wish you all well but I'm off to live in Asia in a couple of months to live off my investments so will not be posting here anymore.

I'm sticking with my philosophy coz it works. Good luck with all your short term buys.

Lets see if you guys can retire at 35 with your philosophy.

 

[Duckman#72]

I've been following this thread for months now and reading with amusement all the reasons why GTP is such a good buy. Meanwhile the stock keeps heading south, and yet there are people who keep buying it.
Bloody hell......no wonder so many people get hammered in the stockmarket!

I've brought this up before and it's worth repeating......Once stocks start downtrending they usually go down further than anyone thought they'd go. You get a 'bargain' today but next week or next month you see you've paid too much.
Some of them stop going down only when the company goes broke. Meanwhile, you're tying up your money in a deadbeat stock, money that could be invested in a good performer. The lost opportunity cost is killing you more than most of you ever realise.
Right now there are stocks that are going up solidly. Anyone who can't see the benefit of investing in these stocks, rather than in those that are sinking like the Titanic, must have an aversion to making money.

If you think GTP or any other stock has good prospects in the longer term, then it's prudent to hold off investing in it until it shows signs of confirming your view. There's only one way it can do this.....it must start uptrending.

Buying plunging stocks is not investment, it's GAMBLING.

Bunyip

Can we stick to GTP Bunyip.

I think most people agree with your view of falling stocks however this isn't the thread for generalised investment strategies.

We are talking about one stock. How low do you feel that GTP will fall?

 

[michael_selway]

Michael,

My scan has come up with more than 30 stocks in the ASX 300 that are in decent uptrends. If I was to look outside the ASX 300 there would obviously be a lot more.
But rather than hand them to you on a plate, I'll let you find them for yourself.
I presume you do know how to recognise uptrending stocks? If not, I'll be happy to recommend some good reading material that will teach you this invaluable skill....I believe you'd find it a worthwhile compliment to your fundamental analysis.

Bunyip

Hi Bunyip

I know how to pick "uptrending", but can you please name the best ones currently in your opinion, doesnt have to be ASX 300

thx again

MS

 

[bunyip]

Hi Bunyip

I know how to pick "uptrending", but can you please name the best ones currently in your opinion, doesnt have to be ASX 300

thx again

MS

No Michael - you put in the work and pick them yourself. If you do indeed have the ability to pick uptrending stocks, and you have software that can scan for them, and you know what criteria to tell your software to look for, then it'll take you no more than a few minutes to find those 30 odd uptrenders that I mentioned.
If you don't have software that can perform scans, then I suggest you buy some.
PM me if you like and I'll tell you three or four software packages that fit the bill. Also I'll tell you exactly what scan criteria I use to pick the uptrenders.
It really is quite simple if you know what to do.

Bunyip

 

[bunyip]

Can we stick to GTP Bunyip.

I think most people agree with your view of falling stocks however this isn't the thread for generalised investment strategies.

We are talking about one stock. How low do you feel that GTP will fall?

Duckman

Do you have a crystal ball? I don't....neither you nor I have any idea how far GTP will fall.
It could begin a new uptrend on Monday, in which case you'll be smiling all the way to the bank.
But the other possibility is that it could fall a lot further. And therein lies the risk of buying a downtrending stock....it could be many years before you see any return on your money, or in the worst case scenario you could lose your entire investment.
That's why I maintain that no matter how positive you feel about GTP's long term prospects, it would have been more prudent if you'd delayed your buying until the stock confirms your opinion by beginning a new uptrend.

I'm not trying to be critical of you or your investment strategy. Its just that I've 'been there done that'....I've bought downtrending stocks just like you did, then sat around for donkeys years waiting for them to climb back above my purchase price.
There are more efficient ways to invest your hard earned money.

Bunyip

 

[michael_selway]

No Michael - you put in the work and pick them yourself. If you do indeed have the ability to pick uptrending stocks, and you have software that can scan for them, and you know what criteria to tell your software to look for, then it'll take you no more than a few minutes to find those 30 odd uptrenders that I mentioned.
If you don't have software that can perform scans, then I suggest you buy some.
PM me if you like and I'll tell you three or four software packages that fit the bill. Also I'll tell you exactly what scan criteria I use to pick the uptrenders.
It really is quite simple if you know what to do.

Bunyip

Bunyip

Picking "Uptrending Stocks" is the easy part (everyone can look at a chart).

But can you pick uptrending stocks that is going to turn the other way? Thats where the trick is

Or a downtrending stock that will become bullish big time?

If you look at the RIN thread, RIN was one of those "uptrending stocks" that went bad. I thought it was going to because the forecasts were slowing big time compared with last few yrs % wise

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 62.8 106.7 123.0 136.6 149.5
DPS 21.0 78.0 45.2 47.7 51.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 123.0 10.9 15.3%
Year Ending 30-03-08 136.6 9.8 11.1%

But would you have bought it at $19-20 before the downward trend started? Many did unfortunately.

thx

MS

 

[GreatPig]

But can you pick uptrending stocks that is going to turn the other way?

No one can reliably pick stocks that are "going to" do anything - they'd be multi-billionaires by now if they could.

The best anyone can do is guess based on whatever variables they study.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Jackob]

Jackob, I take your point regarding the 35,000 hectares. I was including the GST, but perhaps this isn't included in the announced revenue figures. In which case it will be 35,000 hectares.

Reading the announcement, it says they hope the $200 million facility will be in place by the end of calendar year 2007. So it is not to buy land for this year as all of that land will have already been bought and planted and be well into its first year of growing.

... ...

Abucs,

Your recent post reminds me that I owe you a reply to your above post...

I take your point that the GTP $200m loan facility for the pulpwood projects will only be in place by the end of calendar year '07 according to their announcement. (Sorry I neglected the digits "'07" in their announcement).

However, the problem of money for the 2006 pulpwood is still there… The 2006 pulpwood project need 35,000 ha land, of which only 7,000 ha has been bought before, and the rest 28,000 ha must be bought imperatively by the end of March 2007. These 28,000 ha land needs $6000/ha * 28000ha=$168 m to buy. Where can be the money from?

In the past 3 years as I observed, not a single $1 from the GTP “profit” was used to buy land. The money buying land was all from issuing new shares and hybrids.

Last year around this time, GTP said “no more TREES!” “No TREES-3!”… But just in a few weeks after announcing a $124m annual profit in August, it raised $125m TREES-3 to buy pulpwood land… (and the sp plunged to $2.66 as we all know… )

Thus I suspect that, if GTP can’t get that $200m from bank soon, then ~$200m of TREES-4 has to be on the way! (The other alternative of issuing more shares is less likely)

So, why do we have to have this damn big share price tumble (with 6m+ shares turnover last Friday)? If TREES-4 is not THE answer, I reckon it is likely part of the answer. Just as TheAnalyst said, there must be “something more dramatic happening here than the whole market is aware of”.

Cheers

Jackob

PS: BTW, what’s your investment philosophy to make you so successful?

 

[bunyip]

Bunyip

Picking "Uptrending Stocks" is the easy part (everyone can look at a chart).

But can you pick uptrending stocks that is going to turn the other way? Thats where the trick is

Or a downtrending stock that will become bullish big time?

If you look at the RIN thread, RIN was one of those "uptrending stocks" that went bad. I thought it was going to because the forecasts were slowing big time compared with last few yrs % wise

But would you have bought it at $19-20 before the downward trend started? Many did unfortunately.
thx

MS

Can I pick uptrending stocks that are going to turn the other way?
Can I pick a downtrending stock that will become bullish big time?

Probably not. I've never really tried....I don't need to.
I don't agree with you when you say "That's where the trick is".
For me the trick is not trying to work out in advance when a stock is going to turn the other way.
A far more useful 'trick' in my view is to be able to recognise a new trend shortly after it begins, then be able to identify one or two simple setups that signal an entry into the trend.
And to keep your loss small if the trade doesn't go as planned.

Would I have bought RIN at $19-20 before the downward trend started?

No I wouldn't....I would have bought it months earlier on the first buy signal after it began uptrending.
Even if I did buy in close to the top, my stop loss would have extracted me from the trade with only a small loss if the trade turned against me.

Bunyip