Great day to deploy capital :-)

[xyzedarteerf]

Has anyone noticed that a lot of ASX stocks seem to be forming a descending triangle right now.
Can anyone offer an insight into why apart from that the stock values went up and now have slowly cooled off again?
I am looking to gain an idea of what seems to affecting this and whether there will either be impetus for a sudden move up or down...
I might be getting a little bit too creatively observant, but for example;
PEN
SDL
FMJ
FML
IDC

I wonder what macro stuff is coming that might head us either way. Could be a sign that there is a good change expected, or perhaps things were overpriced and looking at a sharp downwards spike. Is it anticipation of earnings in the US. Just a thought, I personally only trade based on the stocks price action, so this may seem a contradiction....

so you noticed this to huh...yeah I personally was in and out of the few mentioned above, but I just don't feel like buying at the moment. dunno maybe its got something to do with the planets or the current worldly matters.

 

[robusta]

Not long now, soon it will be time to throw everything you have got into the market.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The catching knives thread? There's a good reason why sp's are so 'cheap'. Feel sorry for those leveraged or margined long - playing with fire.........great day to preserve capital?

 

[skc]

The catching knives thread? There's a good reason why sp's are so 'cheap'. Feel sorry for those leveraged or margined long - playing with fire.........great day to preserve capital?

While the direct effects of QE2 ending is unpredictable, the prudent way is definitely capital preservation.

For the Aussie market to fly in the face of such uncertainty is not impossible, but improbable imo.

 

[professor_frink]

The catching knives thread? There's a good reason why sp's are so 'cheap'. Feel sorry for those leveraged or margined long - playing with fire.........great day to preserve capital?

One of my knife catching systems fired off a long signal overnight so I'm long a small lot on the SPY at last night's close with no fixed stop.

I've additional underwear at the ready for when I get up in the morning. Wish me luck

 

[tothemax6]

Not long now, soon it will be time to throw everything you have got into the market.

And when will that be? Any particular signal, or just 'when it feels right'?

People have their eyes on the EU and the US too much. That just who the news agencies are looking at. China is the issue.

 

[mr. jeff]

And when will that be? Any particular signal, or just 'when it feels right'?

People have their eyes on the EU and the US too much. That just who the news agencies are looking at. China is the issue.

it may be a good time to step aside and watch the drama unfold, there is a lot of drama around and the ASX is moving like a drunk, spasming yoyo. If you are trading and losing consistently, sometimes you have to take a break and wait for the timing to be right once again.
There is something very neat and efficient about standing aside and watching the pain of other's trades and waiting for the time when you can re-enter and start watching those repetitive 5% / day moves over weeks at a time.
To relate that to this thread, be ready for the great day to deploy capital, this is a very good time to be researching potentials, noting project dates and having the ammunition all stacked up in rows.

 

[brty]

I have just performed a quick recap of this thread, and indeed the original poster, ROE's thoughts, were a good day to employ capital. I was one of those who thought otherwise and was incorrect on this occassion.

Well done ROE, I hope you made a motza and cashed out.

brty

 

[robusta]

And when will that be? Any particular signal, or just 'when it feels right'?

People have their eyes on the EU and the US too much. That just who the news agencies are looking at. China is the issue.

No particular signal but it felt right today; a screen full of red, everyone saying the market is heading lower and a couple of companies sp falling to a price I am prepared to pay (ZGL @ $0.48 in particular)

 

[tothemax6]

No particular signal but it felt right today; a screen full of red, everyone saying the market is heading lower and a couple of companies sp falling to a price I am prepared to pay (ZGL @ $0.48 in particular)

Well you could be right, I just think there is more bad news coming.

 

[mr. jeff]

No particular signal but it felt right today; a screen full of red, everyone saying the market is heading lower and a couple of companies sp falling to a price I am prepared to pay (ZGL @ $0.48 in particular)

The problem with this is that this is how you feel when you force yourself to detach from the market and then you don't know when to buy except not when everyone says you should be buying. Think back to the carnage that began in 2008. After a very bad week, you could think, "this is good sharp, quick dip to buy into".

then a loss. Then after a few more months, same thing again.
Then everyone was worried that things were never going back to the way they were, so you didn't know whether you would actually be right in buying at all. then after the fact, buy once again, when bailout were done and dusted.
And finally it moved favourably. how much chasing should you do and does anyone have a definition of when to deploy except for when it feels particularly painful?
this is partially a thread for traders feeling pain in my opinion. I've done it myself.

Need a way of identifying a re-entry point, not just a gut feel.
1. Support/resistance must be one.
2. Major change in global issue (debt, US printing, Libya, Fukushima).
3. Return of major volume ? (particularly applicable now)

more?

 

[tothemax6]

Need a way of identifying a re-entry point, not just a gut feel.
1. Support/resistance must be one.
2. Major change in global issue (debt, US printing, Libya, Fukushima).
3. Return of major volume ? (particularly applicable now)

more?

I would say (1) would be useless, during such an event prior prices are irrelevant. (2) sure, (3) maybe. But really, one needs to know when there is danger of a crash. This can only come from insight into current macroeconomics. Seeing credit expansion, housing prices decoupling from rent yields, accross-the-board inflation of asset prices etc.

 

[Halifax]

I would say (1) would be useless, during such an event prior prices are irrelevant.

I wouldn't say that necessarily. The GFC caused our market to retrace back to a previous resistance/support level, and it took a break or bounced at minor support/resistance levels on the way down. I'd say prior prices are always relevant.

 

[robusta]

Maybe not today or tomorrow ..... but soon

 

[ROE]

I sort of open

I have a few naked put options on stock I want to own

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Maybe not today or tomorrow ..... but soon

Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains – New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929 October 29, 1929 – Stock Market Crashes!

 

[robusta]

Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains – New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929 October 29, 1929 – Stock Market Crashes!

Love it! I guess that is why they call it risk.

 

[skyQuake]

So anyone else buying the gap down and into the morning panic ?

 

[tech/a]

No
I think sky diving blindfolded and without a parachute is safer.
Battlefields are littered with dead bodies of hero's.

Remember the DJIA was 6500 and now 11,300
the FTSE 3500 and is now 5600.

The GFC was all about the US.
This is now a combination of Europe debt and US debt.
Far worse.
Short any bounce in my view particularly on low volume.(The bounce)

 

[skc]

So anyone else buying the gap down and into the morning panic ?

I am not that brave... I have a few low balls in on individual stocks that might flash crash (e.g. 30% fall) but otherwise I am sticking to pairs trading this month...