GOR - Gold Road Resources

[finicky]

Tacked on 2,000 @ 1.95

Still don't have a decisive opinion of where this chart is heading, a short retracement, a solid correction, or pushing on to blue sky. I think there's enough chance of the latter to add shares, but on the other hand I would like to maybe double my holding if there's a sufficient price drop.

Held

Line chart of WEEKLY closing prices

 

[brerwallabi]

I picked GOR last year in the yearly comp so I might as well stick with it.
What I do like about it is gold sales are totally hedge free, the company achieved record production at low cost.
If the gold price surges further this year in a territory above $3000oz in Australian dollars holders .can look forward to a greater profit and a stronger dividend.
GOR also owns almost 20% of De Grey mining.

 

[divs4ever]

Tacked on 2,000 @ 1.95

Still don't have a decisive opinion of where this chart is heading, a short retracement, a solid correction, or pushing on to blue sky. I think there's enough chance of the latter to add shares, but on the other hand I would like to maybe double my holding if there's a sufficient price drop.

Held

Line chart of WEEKLY closing prices
View attachment 167978

if the drop is big enough i would add extra GOR as well , but am not holding my breath my target is an easy 20% lower than the current price

 

[brerwallabi]

if the drop is big enough i would add extra GOR as well , but am not holding my breath my target is an easy 20% lower than the current price

Divs I hope it doesn’t drop as this is one I own, I continued to hold even when it dropped and I was actually down about 15%. I saw $2.00 in this stock so it has achieved my target. I will continue to hold and consider selling half.

 

[divs4ever]

Divs I hope it doesn’t drop as this is one I own, I continued to hold even when it dropped and I was actually down about 15%. I saw $2.00 in this stock so it has achieved my target. I will continue to hold and consider selling half.

i bought in August 2021 @ $1.25 i don't see my reduction target ( around $2.80 ) any time soon , but you never know it took years of averaging down on OZL to get into a very nice place before it was taken over

 

[divs4ever]

GRUYERE PRODUCTION UPDATE

Gold Road Resources Limited (Gold Road or the Company) presents a preliminary production and financial update for the December 2023 quarter.
The Gruyere JV is a 50:50 joint venture with Gruyere Mining Company Pty Ltd, a member of the Gold Fields Ltd group (Gold Fields), who manages and operates the Gruyere gold mine (Gruyere).

Further details will be available in the full December 2023 quarterly report scheduled for release later this month.

2023 Annual Production Delivered to Lower End of Guidance

 2023 Annual Production from Gruyere totalled approximately 321,978 ounces1 (160,989 ounces attributable) meeting the lower end of annual guidance of 320,000 – 350,000 ounces.
 Annual attributable AISC will be provided with the fully reconciled production numbers in the quarterly report later this month. December Quarter Production Impacted by Lower Mining Productivity
 Gruyere produced approximately 74,653 ounces of gold (100% basis) during the December 2023 quarter (September quarter: 88,668 ounces).
 Production was lower quarter on quarter due to disappointing mining performance arising mainly from unexpected labour availability issues during December.
 Gruyere ore tonnes processed totalled 2.2 Mt at a head grade of 1.1 g/t Au and a gold recovery of 93.1% for the quarter2 .

Financial and Corporate
 Gold Road’s gold sales totalled 37,037 ounces at an average sales price of A$3,040 per ounce.

Gold doré and bullion on hand on 31 December 2023 was approximately 1,989 ounces.

Gold Road continues to be unhedged and 100% exposed to the spot gold price.

 Cash and equivalents3 decreased to approximately $149.8 million (September quarter: $209.3 million) with no debt drawn, following investments4 and a dividend payment totalling $74.2 million during the quarter.
 At 31 December 2023, Gold Road held listed investments with a market value of approximately $465 million5 .

This release has been authorised by the Board. For further information, please visit goldroad.com.au or contact:


i hold GOR

hmmm probably won't come down to my 'top up rice

 

[finicky]

Only achieved lower range of estimate for 2023 annual gold production after a poorer Dec Qtr of production. Excuse is an unexpected labour shortage. Doesn't say if this is resolved. I've been trying to find ways to value this if extrapolating on the annual and Dec Qtrly performances. One number I came up with which is likely a bit rubbish is that at today's market capitalisation (marked down 7% from yesterday) you are paying north of A$12,000 enterprise value per oz of annual gold production attributal to GOR if buying GOR today - based on 2023 annual performance. No one should take this seriously unless doing your own sums.
Another 'metric' I came up with is free cash flow yield before tax and I got around 7-8% cash yield for that. But I just annualised Dec Qtrly cash increase after adding back dividends and investments to do it and Dec Qtr will 'hopefully' be improved upon. Again, not to be taken seriously. Put it this way - I am not tempted to buy today and am glad I have some independent advice to support my previous purchase.

Held

 

[finicky]

Yep, didn't think of that. Some elsewhere are darkly hinting that vaccine injury might be impacting the workforce and to look out for the reports of the other miners to see if they have labour problems too. Interesting that GOR doesn't elaborate on their labour issues - neither the cause nor the prospect for improvement

 

[Tyre Kicker]

AISC announcement will possibly provide an opportunity to buy. I’m looking for the 1.60 mark to jump back in.

 

[divs4ever]

AISC announcement will possibly provide an opportunity to buy. I’m looking for the 1.60 mark to jump back in.

i was thinking lower than that .. but i have often been accused as a closet optimist ( but more commonly known as ' the voice of doom )

i do hold GOR and am still willing to add extra if cheap enough ( but shouldn't need a Ca. Raise so am probably dreaming )

 

[brerwallabi]

The last few days have seen it settle a little, buying was strong at yesterday’s close auction.
Until we have news on the labour shortage cant see it going anywhere unless the gold price continues to improve.
Labour shortages in the mining industry look likely to continue through the year with some companies being severely impacted.
You can’t say we were not warned on labour shortages.
Half year reporting might see a dearth of companies not reaching targets and revising for the full year.

 

[finicky]

dearth

Double negative.

Dearth
"a scarcity or lack of something.
"there is a dearth of evidence"

So, "... might see a dearth of companies not reaching targets"

 

[brerwallabi]

Double negative.

Dearth
"a scarcity or lack of something.
"there is a dearth of evidence"

So, "... might see a dearth of companies not reaching targets"

As we say in Thailand “upto you”

 

[finicky]

Yeah well, not a shining Dec Qtrly or cal2024 guidance imo.

I experienced the report as a quite obscure so anything I say should be checked by anyone interested in the company. The results aren't put clearly side by side to compare actual cal2023 with estimated cal2024 and there is the added obscurity of 100% Gruyere results and guidance with the half that is attributable to GOR. Moreover the labour problem is still not spelled out.
But what is clear is that for cal2024 they are anticipating close to the same production of ozs (cal2023 = 162,000 ozs for GOR vs cal2024 = 158,000 ozs for GOR mid range) but at much higher, but still profitable, AISC.
AISC for cal2023 was A$1,662, whereas mid range AISC for cal2024 tipped to be A$1,975. That's a A$313 per oz increase in expected AISC cost for cal2024.

They expect higher waste removal, higher costs and most concerningly the labour shortage of MACA, its mining contractor, is not yet resolved - nor does GOR elaborate as to what is causing the labour issue. Furthermore they imply that guided results will depend on MACA sorting this out.

I bought this on the chance of a chart breakout but don't have the means to intrinsically value it because I need a full year 2023 NPAT result to get a figure for return on equity and from that a guess at 2024 ROE.

Held

 

[finicky]

GOR down 11%, 20 minutes in.

 

[divs4ever]

GOR down 11%, 20 minutes in.

have a top up order in @ $1.23 ( but that is liable to slide lower if i can )

 

[Sean K]

GOR down 11%, 20 minutes in.

What did they miss? AISC too high?

I wonder what they'll do with the DEG holdings. Sell to Goldfields as part of a TO perhaps?

 

[UMike]

Is this because GG is on board?

 

[divs4ever]

What did they miss? AISC too high?

I wonder what they'll do with the DEG holdings. Sell to Goldfields as part of a TO perhaps?

well the ASIC is always liable to trend higher , and staff/skill shortages in a 3rd party are never appealing

maybe they will look to reallocate capital elsewhere

edged that top-up order a little lower

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is this because GG is on board?

Not yet.

gg