Gold stocks

[Profitseeker]

Price of gold came back a bit last night so I would expect to see gold share prices down today. In my opinion (*3), this will provide a good buying op before Gold goes on a bigger run.

 

[Caliente]

BDG - I'll take a look, nice little trend present there. ANy reason for the price collapse?

GreatPig- whats the technical name for that curve you drew on the Tanami graph? I've seen that kind of pattern before and it usually works well, god knows why?

 

[GreatPig]

whats the technical name for that curve you drew on the Tanami graph?

I think it's called a saucer.

Take a look at this thread for a discussion about them.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Caliente]

cheers GP!

 

[Caliente]

just spotted another gold stock on the move

WEZ



does that look sort of like a saucer to you GP?

 

[Caliente]

sorry I'm really new to the saucer concept but I want to apply it to some stocks, and gold is my favourite sector right now. Anyone with more knowledge/exp. please feel free to correct me/point out idiot mistakes etc.

Cheers
-Caliente

 

[chicken]

Just some news in re SBM St Barbara Mines....they have been drilling in some of the assets they bought from SWG...and just won a trifecta...I was hoping for that....one of their mines returned up to 85 gms per tone.....so they are even talking about an update of ozs of gold in the ground.....when they start drilling in the Sullivan for Nickel content this one is bound to go higher due to the assets,,,,check www.stbarbara.com.au I am impressed...

 

[chicken]

I checked www.kitcometals.com and GOLD was up US$10 to $443....US....looking at what everyone is saying...all gone long in gold futures

 

[Milk Man]

I checked www.kitcometals.com and GOLD was up US$10 to $443....US....looking at what everyone is saying...all gone long in gold futures

Could this be the beginning of the end for the US economy?

 

[chicken]

Could this be the beginning of the end for the US economy?

The USA economy is doing niecly....the storm will create a lot of work for people...its saying ,the gold up which was expected, that inflation will be up....another words the US $ will come down.....was also expected before the storm.....

 

[dodgers]

Perseverance Corporation (PSV) is another one, similar to BDG

Current 0.34. UBS target 0.47

Good article from aireview here...

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=6&id=2160

 

[tech/a]

Dont know if this one is mentioned.

What you got on this Chicken?

 

[GreatPig]

BSG is one that Daryl Guppy is currently trading in his weekly newsletter.

Cheers,
GP

 

[skin]

Triako Resources (TKR)

Following a report from Westpac Broking:- fyi........


"Forgettable Year - Patience Required

Recommendation: Speculative Buy
Share Price: $0.85
FYE Jun 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A
Reported NPAT $m 4.5 5.4 8.0 -5.6
EPS c 12.8 15.1 23.1 -16.7
P/E x 8.1 9.7 7.4 --
EPS Growth % -33.7 18.0 53.0 -172.3
DPS c 6.0 9.0 9.0 --
Yield % 6.2 6.2 5.2 --
Franking % 100 100 100 --

Event
TKR's recorded a headline FY05 net loss of $5.6m compared to a net profit of $8.0m. Sales revenue fell 43% due to lower production and less favourable smelting terms.

Gold output fell 56% to 25,630oz while copper more than doubled to 2,366t, mainly due to grades. A significantly lower proportion of gold was produced as metal compromising the realised price.

The headline result benefited from a one off $3.4m profit from the sale of the 25% interest in ASX listed Buka Minerals (BKA). The adjusted net loss of $9.0m compared to a net profit of $8.0m in FY04.

Net operating cash outflow of $0.6m compared to an inflow of $15.2m in FY04. At the end of the year TKR held $10.9m in cash and no debt. Cash and listed equities are worth ~40cps.

Hera resources grew to 1.94Mt for 505,000oz gold equivalent. The estimated grade fell from 14.8g/t to 8.1g/t Au eq due to the use of a more conservative calculation method.

Impact
Our valuation falls 6.7% to $1.40 per share due to the reduced resource grades at Hera, however, the new grade estimates may prove conservative.

With the Mineral Hill mine closing imminently, TKR is an exploration and feasibility study play. The prefeasibility study set to finish in December 2005 should provide an indication of project viability. We are relatively confident of a go ahead due to high grades and ore value.

If all goes to plan, a development decision on Hera will be made in 2H06 following the feasibility study results. Production should start in approximately one year later.

Testing to date suggests Hera ore is readily treatable.

Further exploration is planned at Hera and around Mineral Hill.

Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates. Note: Net profit and EPS are pre-goodwill." end quote,

 

[tech/a]

Nice

 

[silence]

I hold TGD (Tasgold).
It's my first go at trading, and it seems to be on a short term uptrend.


Fingers crossed.















Above post is not advice, recommendation, etc.

 

[tech/a]

Silence is golden.

 

[silence]

Indeed, hopefully very much so.

 

[Profitseeker]

BDG is gone up recently. I reckon it has a bit left in it short term and a lot long term.

 

[RichKid]

A great article imo on possible gold takeover targets from that great free mag, Air Review.

More Resources Mergers On The Horizon?
November 10 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)

The ranks of major Australian resource companies have been thinned by takeover in recent years (think MIM Holdings and WMC Resources), and if recent developments in the global gold sector are any indication the numbers may soon decline further.

Barrick has launched a takeover offer for Placer Dome, a move that would create the largest gold mining company in the world, replacing Newmont in the top position.

As both GSJB Were and ABN Amro Morgans note, the takeover offer continues the consolidation among global gold miners, which has been driven by an inability to find new resources and reserves to replace production.
As UBS notes, takeovers have become the easiest way to increase reserves, with Australian stocks among the most attractive given their relatively low costs of production and stable political environment.

The broker suggests this is in contrast to gold companies in South Africa, where there are far more complications given issues such as black empowerment and high production costs, as well as a less favourable currency.

Weres notes the two largest Australian producers, Lihir Gold (LHG) and in particular Newcrest Mining (NCM), both offer large scale, long life assets, which are particularly attractive to the current global gold majors.
The broker estimates Newcrest is on track to lift production from its current 1moz annually to about 1.8moz annually over the next two years, while cash costs should continue to be below US$200/oz.

Also, the broker points out the stock is the most attractive in global terms on the basis of cash margins and life of reserves.

Similarly Lihir is set to increase this year’s production of about 500koz to around 700koz next year, while potential remains to hit the 1moz mark in the next three to four years.

Additionally, as UBS notes Rio Tinto (RIO) has stated its 14% stake in Lihir is a non-core holding, so any potential bidder would have a good starting point if it were to acquire such a stake.
In the broker’s view Lihir is also less likely to attract a counter offer than would be Newcrest.

Adding the production of either company to its annual output would allow Newmont to resume its place as the largest global producer, so making it a potential buyer of assets in the Australian sector.

Another contender is AngloGold Ashanti, as ABN Amro notes the decision by AngloGold to allow its shareholding to be diluted below 50% frees AngloGold Ashanti to use scrip as part of a takeover offer, making corporate transactions more likely.

The question then becomes at what price would a bid be made, and when is it likely to come?

In terms of timing, with both companies currently experiencing some production difficulties an immediate bid is unlikely.

As UBS points out, any potential buyer for Newcrest is more likely to wait for Telfer to achieve full production rates given the ongoing technical problems at the mine, while the company’s hedging position may also warrant further analysis.

Similarly Lihir has seen production curtailed recently by a landslide, with Weres noting the incident adds to its history of suboptimal production, so evidence of improvement would be a significantly reassuring factor.
On valuation grounds, the broker suggests the key variable is the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of the acquirer, as this is the determinant of the value the company can derive from the assets it is buying.
The broker calculates using a 6% WACC, which is above that applied to US stocks, its valuation of Newcrest would increase to $16.50 from $9.40, while for Lihir it would increase to $1.44 from $1.15.

In the broker’s view then a North American producer could afford to pay more than $30.00/share for Newcrest and more than $2.90/share for Lihir, as these prices would represent a similar multiple to the current Barrick bid for Placer Dome, which is priced on 2.1x net present value (NPV).

UBS uses a slightly different NPV in its forecasts but is similarly optimistic, calculating the Barrick bid is pitched at about 3x NPV, which translates to a price for Newcrest of about $28.00/share and Lihir of about $3.50/share.
Focussing on Newcrest, ABN suggests depending on who made the offer and how it was financed, a bid could be value and earnings accretive at between $24.00-$30.00/share.

The broker suggests a price between $21.00-$25.00/share would make the bid earnings accretive for Barrick, Newmont and AngloGold Ashanti now, with this increasing to $27.00-$28.00/share when Telfer reaches full capacity.

http://www.aireview.com/