Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

According to Kitco, the high last year was at US$720.10

Cheers,
GP

True, but that was during the session, not a closing price. We await what pans out. Interesting times if one takes an interest, otherwise it probably matters little.

Having said that I am sitting bolt upright

 

[explod]

Perhaps I spoke too soon, this break is very significant if it holds till the morning

 

[numbercruncher]

wow if this continues itll be self propelling im thinking just like carry trades as folks fix up there positions - Pretty good stuff really


Great buying still IMHO, 703 peices of worthless green dollars for a whole rock solid ounce of gleaming timeless gold - Bargain!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I had buy orders on gold at 700 they were filled, I have taken profits call me crazy but I want to see a a new higher low before I commit serious money to this break out. I would like to see the price hold above 690-700 for that higher low.

at this point its looking promising

 

[explod]

I had buy orders on gold at 700 they were filled, I have taken profits call me crazy but I want to see a a new higher low before I commit serious money to this break out. I would like to see the price hold above 690-700 for that higher low.

at this point its looking promising

Cooool, I have been a hold since US$ 430, probably masochistic, but dont' like risk. Will sell around $6,000, but if the missus kicks the bucket, a long term hold thanks Joe

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Cooool, I have been a hold since US$ 430, probably masochistic, but dont' like risk. Will sell around $6,000, but if the missus kicks the bucket, a long term hold thanks Joe

6000 now that's a target!

I am looking for any type of consolidation to resumption of trend. a us rate cut will really get this party going! hmm interesting times

 

[explod]

6000 now that's a target!

I am looking for any type of consolidation to resumption of trend. a us rate cut will really get this party going! hmm interesting times

From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900. a ratio of more than 25 to one.

In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260 x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts

 

[>Apocalypto<]

From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900. a ratio of more than 25 to one.

In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260 x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts

very interesting analysis explod.

hmmm wonder if any one is still holding from that 35$ price they must be having a shiny retirement now!

 

[bean]

In all my posts I have always said the gold stocks follow the US markets.
I think that has been proven true.

I always said that eventually POG and gold stocks will break free...
Tonight gives an idea. and last few days.

I still am expecting one final swoon in the gold stocks may start towards end of next week????

But the POG will be strong by the end of the year.

IT is the metal for 2008.
(except POS will be better)

 

[Sean K]

I still am expecting one final swoon in the gold stocks may start towards end of next week????

Why the end of the week bean?

 

[Bush Trader]

6000 now that's a target!

I am looking for any type of consolidation to resumption of trend. a us rate cut will really get this party going! hmm interesting times

I believe that is a Chinise Curse, "May you live in interesting times!"

Cheers


BT

 

[Kauri]

I completely missed this climb in the POG.. .. am now looking for a spot of vertigo and a resultant stumble on the stairs to find a good retracement point to get on..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[bean]

Why the end of the week bean?

Using run Analysis and various patterns. and the system I referred with links on previous occassions. Current run pattern on a couple of the US Gold Indicies is 1 down and two days up (could mark a top but it doesn't because of the size of the rise) 1 down 3 up can be a bullish pattern one down 4 up is bearish and has a 70% probability of a decline.
However 1 down and 5 up can mark a short term high.
Now using the Indicies they are currently breaking into short term (which means it may become overbought) It is also breaking into medium and long term. once they turn postive in another two to three days rise they will be marking a high. Because they are breaking into them it shows that they will continue to rise. I know I am going to get a rise for at least two to three days. That why I am 100% in gold and silver stocks and I will be selling either wednesday or thursday.

POG gold is now up two days in a row run patterns on POG 5 days up in a row may mark a short term top.

So I am/may be getting several confirmations.

But of course that high may be set the next day down then it could rise again after only one day down but I will see what it does once it has a down day.

The DOW may test 13000 mark may bounce so I also expect that to hold for two to three days when it gives its timing will probably be the same time the Gold Indicies are ready to have the down day?

"So when it has that big fall and Gold Indicies as well they may well have a couple of small up days before falling away into the low?? however I just have to watch the run patterns and see what develops"

 

[explod]

Not able to get a handle on you hypothesis Bean.

Seems to me that the movements of gold are now in reverse to that of the Dow. Larger fall on Wall Street last night gold up. In fact on the week gold is up 4% and the Dow is down 2%.

It was a tactic of the Plunge Protection Team, via Wall Street Spin Doctors to convey the idea that gold moves with the Dow, and that has now failed. Some time previously (early this year) they tried the same stunt with the dollar index and gold, worked for awhile and that has failed. Looking at the big picture gold is making a firm break and a close past $715 US with a continued and expected further fall of the US dollar will see the bull run in gold well and truly back underway.

Forget the dips now, it is time to get on and stay on board as the train increases in speed.

Just my humble opinion of course

 

[Bush Trader]

POG gold is now up two days in a row run patterns on POG 5 days up in a row may mark a short term top.

The DOW may test 13000 mark may bounce so I also expect that to hold for two to three days when it gives its timing will probably be the same time the Gold Indicies are ready to have the down day?

"So when it has that big fall and Gold Indicies as well they may well have a couple of small up days before falling away into the low?? however I just have to watch the run patterns and see what develops"

And what would be the fundamental precursor for this fall in the "Gold Indicies"? Is it that Gold positions will be sold in order to cover other positions, margin calls, currency hedges etc? Or will it be the central banks combined with the Plunge protection team, selling down Gold positions?


Cheers


BT

PS I wrote this prior to reading Explod's Post

 

[bean]

And what would be the fundamental precursor for this fall in the "Gold Indicies"? Is it that Gold positions will be sold in order to cover other positions, margin calls, currency hedges etc? Or will it be the central banks combined with the Plunge protection team, selling down Gold positions?


Cheers


BT

PS I wrote this prior to reading Explod's Post

The POG is strong and is breaking out and yes we are starting to see every now and again POG and the US gold Indicies move opposite from the DOW.

From the lows made on the 15Th August the US gold Indicies have advanced 20% and will advance 2-5% over next few days.

When the markets fell last time Gold Indicies went with the market - sellers needing liquidity - In a falling market first stocks some people sell are ones that they have made a profit - they try to keep it - The gold stocks Market CAP wise are small I think the market CAP of all the Gold stocks combined is less than the market CAP of Microsoft.

Last night both the Nasday and S&P 500 fell through the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern more than likely early next week they will try to get back to the neck. If they fail which could be say wednesday or thursday night they they will fall as well and they seem to be alinging with what I am seeing in the gold Indicies topping on wednesday or thursday night and thats why I think the Gold Indicies will be drag back down one more time.

As for the POG It may well be caught in the downdraft but I think we can all see that it is gaining strenght and the FED etc can no longer keep it in place.
And thats why I think this next down leg in the market will be the last for the Gold Indicies and (well POG isnt going to fall US540) POG (might not fall much at all) But the Gold Indicies may well drop back and make a double bottom??


I am a holder of physical Silver
(I believe the Gold/Siver ratio Silver will move more in % wise to Gold and I think it is better value than Gold )

But for Stocks I move in and out - If there is a possibility of a large move to the downside. If I am wrong well I have to buy at a higher price which I do not mind if its going to rise

 

[explod]

Yes, that is a fair rationale in my view Bean.

I am forming a view that the corrections of the past with the gold price are becoming less. It seems to be in line with a view that, I think it was Uncle Fest., drew our attention to last week and that is that the money cartels (the banks) are becoming suspicious or each other's exposure to poorly backed debt. As one of the things drying up liquidity, it initially dropped gold to some extent, but not great. The loss of this liquidity could be making it more difficult to finance big short term buy ins for going long or short to move the market. In the past the big buy in last Thursday would have been met with a fast sell off last night. I had expected that to happen but because it did not I wonder at the view I am forming?

Be pleased to hear others on this.

Has there been a thread on The Plunge Protection Tream/Wall Street Spin, cannot find one, perhaps this could be a good direction of study

cheers explod

 

[So_Cynical]

From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900. a ratio of more than 25 to one.

In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260 x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts

I posted the same figure in another forum and had my post removed.

And i still don't really believe it will get there any time this decade, however
ive been doing some research and found out world production is falling
over all...so every year theres less and less gold coming outa the ground
eventually golds gona get super expensive.

 

[michael_selway]

From 1973 to 1980 gold went from US$35 to $900. a ratio of more than 25 to one.

In recent time gold in 2001 hit a bottom of US$260 x 25 = $6,250 or therabouts

Hi but it didnt last long at $900 back in 1980?

thanks

MS

 

[explod]

Hi but it didnt last long at $900 back in 1980?

thanks

MS

Agreed and I do not suggest that it will play out that way this time. In fact it may go higher or lower, that is the way of the markets.

However the flight from falling values in currencies will start a stampede, and like the Dot.com bubble, the housing bubble et.al. we know that they go beyond the pale before a collapse. It is suggested that with gold we are a long way from that now. The trick is to know when to get in and when it is overbought so as to jump off.

Yes the spike in 1980 was only for a day but for the cooler heads there was a further rally to US $780 six months later.

On the standards of 1980 the propertion of investors today would be many times greater, but the gold pool by comparison is now a very small part of the financial pool. So this dynamic is very much greater.

In todays Melbourne Age Heelna Keers reports

"...Net retail investment in gold rose by 51 per cent in tonnage terms to 132.9 tonnes and 60% in $US terms to $2.9 billion in the last quarter to June.

Meanwhile, global demand hit $US14.5 billion, buoyed by 317 tonnes of demand from India, which was equivalent to half of global gold production for the quarter. Chinese demand also rose 32 per cent to 76 tonnes, while the Middle East rose 20 per cent to 97.5 tonnes compared with the same period in 2006." [end quote]

So gold is a very finite resource and further loss of confidence in currencies, particularly the US dollar will see some very interesting developments