Gold Price - Where is it heading?

divs4ever said:

that was just one small ( border-line critical mass )device

Russian has THOUSANDS of much bigger warheads and the new hyper-sonic ones don't even seem to need a payload the heat/plasma triggers the reactions in the target area

but since Russia hasn't threatened that , MAYBE they believe the vaults are virtually empty

do they sit around in storage , and are NOT moved from bay to bay to settle major account moves

now i still think the bars are just heavily over-committed , but until the forensic audit .. the rumors and theories will multiply for example how much stolen gold ( from other nations is in there) .. somebody looted Iraq and Libya

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Entirely valid point about modern nukes being far heftier than Little Boy, but still, the gold at Fort Knox is held in a subterranian vault, not just sitting in a building on the surface.

Interesting! I did some quick looking into it. Even if you do bring your gold bars out of the subterranian vault to count them in the sunlight and that's when the Russians nuke you, the radiation will transform the gold197 to gold198, which has a half life of 2.7 days. So it would only be radioactive for about a week.

So much for that built in theft deterrent option.

Sdajii said:

Entirely valid point about modern nukes being far heftier than Little Boy, but still, the gold at Fort Knox is held in a subterranian vault, not just sitting in a building on the surface.

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that can be handled as well deep penetration missiles and nukes in a combination ( increasing the chances the defenses would be overwhelmed , and a better chance of at least partial success )

what it they were just happy with melting it into a huge puddle , although that might be the preference of some local actors

Sdajii said:

Interesting! I did some quick looking into it. Even if you do bring your gold bars out of the subterranian vault to count them in the sunlight and that's when the Russians nuke you, the radiation will transform the gold197 to gold198, which has a half life of 2.7 days. So it would only be radioactive for about a week.

So much for that built in theft deterrent option.

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one would assume each vault would be emptied one at a time and shifted to a different vault after auditing ( one would assume only suspect bars would be drilled/assayed ) you have very accurate scales and other tools to check most bars without invasive examination ( otherwise they would never find mineral deposits deep underground by aerial survey )

surely Fort Knox would still have SOME vacant storage space .

ALSO rumors suggest there is another storage facility in parallel to Fort Knox ( in the US )

Garpal Gumnut said:

.

Also known as a homophone. But let’s not go too much off topic.

gg

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yeah nah, let's..

divs4ever said:

one would assume each vault would be emptied one at a time and shifted to a different vault after auditing ( one would assume only suspect bars would be drilled/assayed ) you have very accurate scales and other tools to check most bars without invasive examination ( otherwise they would never find mineral deposits deep underground by aerial survey )

surely Fort Knox would still have SOME vacant storage space .

ALSO rumors suggest there is another storage facility in parallel to Fort Knox ( in the US )

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If they did succeed in melting it all into a radioactive puddle, you'd have to wait a week or two before safely handling your pretty golden puddle-shaped nugget and remelting it into bars. Not what you wanted to do with your afternoon, but it wouldn't destroy the gold.

I was being a little silly about bringing the gold to the surface for counting, of course they'd do it all underground in the vault, and if for some reason they did bring it to the surface it would only be a little at a time.

I could be wrong but I believe these days they have devices which can reliably assess gold without having to drill, cut or melt it, so you can non invasively confirm that you have a solid gold bar rather than a gold-plated gold-weighing alloy. There are various methods to test the surface is genuine gold, and ultrasonic testing can confirm if the material is homogenous or has been plated or is made of different types of materials. If it was me I'd still want to drill a few random bars though.

A quick web search tells me that while the exact depth is secret for security reasons, it's something around 27 metres below ground level. Assuming that's the case, it would be pretty impressive to get a nuke into it, and also pretty pointless since the gold would still be recoverable.

I would not be in the slightest bit surprised if there's no gold in Fort Knox and the government never had any gold there, the gold was in a secret facility and Fort Knox is used for something entirely different. Given the strict no visitor policy, anything could be going on there.

Lots of silly stuff on x.com re Gold in Fort Knox. Latest picture from inside FK shows it is all scare mongering.



gg

jog on
duc

Sdajii said:

Okay. But the big C&H pattern which broke above its handle last year, has a target of around $3100.

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Just checked back and it was around 20 Feb 2022 we were discussing $2700 ish a bit. So, three years ago. Waited a long time for the handle to break up.

I can see how it could be extended a bit, but it's all just approximate targets I guess.

Looking back it was a good time to be accumulating gold.

Sean K said:

Just checked back and it was around 20 Feb 2022 we were discussing $2700 ish a bit. So, three years ago. Waited a long time for the handle to break up.

I can see how it could be extended a bit, but it's all just approximate targets I guess.

Looking back it was a good time to be accumulating gold.

View attachment 193741

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The standard way to calculate the price target for a cup and handle is to take the difference between the bottom of the cup ($1046.54) and the right edge of the cup ($2075.13) and add that to the right edge of the cup, so, about $1029 + $2075 = $3104.

Of course the outcome and prediction is not exact, but the calculation is, and it's about $3,100 not $2,700.

You've used a less standard method to come up with your calculation. Of course, you could argue that your method or any other is more valid or useful for your own purposes and strategies, and you might be right, and of course the market could potentially do anything, but the price calculated using the standard textbook method could potentially have some relevance to the market, given that we've already well exceeded $2700 anyway and are approaching the standard target. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see $3,000 become a more relevant figure, being so big and round, and once that's broken we may fly straight past $3,100 for multiple reasons; it may not even pose anything of resistance, I wouldn't be at all surprised if hitting $3000 or just close to it is an immediate catalyst for a huge rally well above $3100. I'm just throwing the textbook figure out there for discussion.

I'm not in the camp 'miners' outperform the physical.

This is not your normal cycle. Gold is rising against higher USD and higher 10yr UST. That is very different.


Gold backed ETFs:


Let me be crystal clear and upfront—gold ETFs do not lend their gold.

This includes SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold Mini Shares Trust (GLDM)1 and all the additional US listed gold ETFs.2

Simply put, it is not permitted by the product design, nor is it permitted under the regulatory approval granted to each product. Yet, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve cringed hearing a market professional mischaracterize the market by saying that they borrow gold from gold ETFs or that a gold ETF lends its gold. Nothing could be further from the truth.

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Why US-listed Physically-backed Gold ETFs Cannot Lend Gold​

Gold ETFs hold only one asset: gold. There are three key distinctions that provide assurance the underlying assets are never lent:

• No regulatory approval has been provided to lend any of the underlying assets held by the fund/trust.
• No economic benefits from activities related to securities lending are received by the fund/trust.
• No risk factors are cited related to securities lending as it is not a feature embedded in the structure.

Additionally, if an ETF engages in securities lending, there are required disclosures informing investors that the fund may lend the underlying assets and of the associated risks.3 By contrast, US-listed physically-backed gold ETFs have no such disclosures, and the publicly filed agreements governing the trusts do not allow for securities lending by the trusts.4

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What Happens Instead: Borrowing and Lending ETF Shares​

Now that we are clear that US-listed physically-backed gold ETFs do not lend any gold, let's discuss what is possible once a gold ETF becomes established, liquid and mainstream.

As a gold ETF becomes well-adopted into the market, it often becomes a key component of the capital markets ecosystem around the asset it represents. This is the case with GLD and IAU, for example, which have significant levels of AUM, high volumes on the US equity exchanges, and are regularly available for borrowing and lending in the securities finance markets.

Here’s how it works: Traders and speculators often borrow shares of such a gold ETF through standard securities lending relationships, which involve the gold ETF’s shareholders, and do not involve the London gold lease market, or the trust, itself.

Those looking to access bullion short will use the securities finance market to borrow shares of the gold ETF. These shares are lent by the shareholder, not by the trust. For the borrower to access a short gold position, they need to either short that gold ETF (which carries risk) or redeem the shares for physical gold, which can then be sold in the London market.

Importantly, these transactions are conducted between owners of the gold ETF, the custody bank that maintains a “lending program” for the client who owns the gold ETF and those who are borrowing the shares.

The following are also true:

• All fees, income and risks associated with that transaction are separate and distinct from the activities of the fund or trust;
• The transaction has no bearing on the gold ETF’s ability to perform its role as an appropriate access mechanism to a unit trust that provides the price performance of gold with little or no variance from the reference price (in this case the LBMA Gold Price PM);
• No economics are received by the gold ETF; and
• No risk of recall, no risk of market dislocation and no risk of credit default are taken by the gold ETF.

When it is time for this independent lending transaction to close out, the borrower of the gold ETF will either buy shares in the secondary market to cover their borrow or unwind by purchasing gold in the OTC market. Once the gold is purchased, using the proper channels, they will submit that gold to create gold ETF shares and use those new shares to close out the borrow.

Either way, the borrowing and unwinding of the trade will result in a healthy level of activity in both the primary market (OTC London bullion market) and the secondary market (listed exchange volume in the US), which will match buyers and sellers. Any imbalance again gets handled by creation or redemption with approved authorized participants.

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Market Benefits of Physically-backed Gold ETFs​

This type of activity illustrates how gold ETFs add liquidity to the overall gold market ecosystem. Increased trading volumes and the participation of more market participants lead to tighter bid-offer spreads, reducing costs for investors and improving market efficiency. Additionally, these ETFs make gold a more mainstream investment instrument by eliminating the challenges of trading physical gold, such as storage, transfer, or questions about gold type or authenticity.

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Conclusion​

To summarize: US-listed physically-backed gold ETFs, including GLD and IAU, do not lend their gold. However, their role in the secondary market indirectly contributes to the overall liquidity and sophistication of the gold market, making gold a more accessible and appealing investment option.



jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

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Conclusion​

To summarize: US-listed physically-backed gold ETFs, including GLD and IAU, do not lend their gold. However, their role in the secondary market indirectly contributes to the overall liquidity and sophistication of the gold market, making gold a more accessible and appealing investment option.

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I wonder if Australian-listed Gold ETF's are similarly constrained from lending their Gold.

gg

Gold finishes the week in that narrow band between $2930 and $2950 as I mentioned in an earlier post as being significant. Any move out of this range on volume will need to be watched.

gg

ducati916 said:

Junior gold miners are already up nearly 5% this month, following a 13% rally in January. Momentum is surging into these stocks

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my selection in the monthly comp. is contesting that statement

and not only is it a gold producer but a profitable one

post on 20th of January

Regis Resources (ASX: RRL)​

Morgan Stanley:

• Production / Profitability: Expects gold production 101.3koz (+7% qoq) to beat consensus by 9%, AISC A$2,535/oz (+3% qoq) to be in line with consensus
• Rating and TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $2.65

RBC Capital Markets: “substantial A$149m cash generation”

• Production / Profitability: Expects gold production of 101kt (+7% qoq) to beat consensus by 7%, AISC A$2,414/oz (-3 qoq) to beat consensus by 5%
• Pressure points: A march quarter “lull” could potentially occur, but company is on track for “mid-FY25 gold and cost guidance, with a ~20% FY25-27e FCF yield”
• Rating & TP: OUTPERFORM | $4.00