Gold Price - Where is it heading?

RichKid · 1 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

brerwallabi said:
Rich your starting to sound like a chartist lol,

If only!! But I hope I'm not going to end up like the majority who aren't very good (stage at which I'm atm), btw, I wonder what a good chartist is?? (no jokes please from you funnymentals ppl)

I seem to be re-learning things all the time, still trying to figure out how to draw simle trend line and what it actually singifies, the simpler it gets the better I sleep at night, it also helps to have strong, clear trends like with these commodities. Now to get more experience/expertise in money and risk mgmt....that's the key.

golddust · 2 December 2005

Gold

I follow Gold shares. Particularly interested in companies listed with interests in the Western Australian Goldfields. Anybody else here do the same?

Dan_ · 2 December 2005

Re: Gold

I do hold a few gold stocks (mining in WA) and am looking to develop my understanding the mining process better, as well as the gold market.

Look forward to your inputs

golddust · 2 December 2005

Gold

Gold currently trading over $500. Yippee

roll on Gold, it's off to the moon we go....
I brought Gold shares 5 years ago.....and up they go :dance:

golddust · 2 December 2005

Gold Price

Gold now 504.95 :bananasmi....come on gold bugs where is the cheers :dance:

wayneL · 2 December 2005

Re: Gold Price

Golddust,

We appreciate your enthusiasm and input.

Just to keep the forum tidy and to ensure continuity, keep all posts related to one topic in one thread.

Thanks

Profitseeker · 2 December 2005

Re: Gold Price

What about joining this discusion to the other gold ones that have been going a while?

<<<Great idea Profitseeker...done >>>

wayneL · 2 December 2005

Re: Gold Price

Golddust,

Though shalt not insult the moderator

RichKid · 3 December 2005

Re: Gold Price

wayneL said:
Golddust,

Though shalt not insult the moderator

Maybe we should have that in the 'code of conduct', but then I'm clearly biased....

A chart of Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX) Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2005.

Is this going to find support above the magic 500 level or not? If not, I reckon retracement as I guessed earlier; if it does, then at least another burst higher before a retest, as often occurs. I really don't know, new territory for most gold traders out there (except the old hands).

RichKid · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Okay so it was just a matter of time before it corrected after that near vertical rise, bearish candles and a classic spike top, increase in trading costs in Japan have dampened speculators too. I wonder what the latest COT charts are telling us overall???

Retracing to that moderately strong area of support at $500, if that level survives this month it can be considered strong support imho- looking for a new short term trend then.

Currently near the upper end of that channel posted in one of my earlier charts, will be back to the drawing board for me soon.

MARKETWAVES · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Here are 2 pictures of Gold's best friend

before and after ........................

MARKETWAVES · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

pg-2 .....................

wayneL · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

RichKid said:
I wonder what the latest COT charts are telling us overall???

Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!

RichKid · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

MARKETWAVES said:
Here are 2 pictures of Gold's best friend

before and after ........................

Haven't the trends disengaged? I haven't looked at a USD/USDGoldprice chart for awhile.....here it is (USD index (DX) and pog in USD).

Looks like the USD is misbehaving, we all know that gold is going to go up in the medium to long term right? So start falling USD, right now! There you go, it should start doing it now....hahaha, damn currencies, sometimes they think they're commodities and vice versa...

This is why you need good money and risk mgmt, even the most symmetrical chart like the one below can get you (you just can't predict these things so consistently, just see how it all went haywire towards the end of the current period.

RichKid · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

wayneL said:
Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!

Thanks Wayne,
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?

For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.

More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm

The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??

Porper · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

RichKid said:
Thanks Wayne,
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?

For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.

More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm

The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??

I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas so as to influence them.

My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.

Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.

I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.

wayneL · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Porper said:
I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas so as to influence them.

My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.

Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.

I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.

I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.

The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.

The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.

Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.

Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks

Cheers

RichKid · 15 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Saw this on Kitco.com about the dynamics of the market, looks like gold focused funds are a new source of physical demand: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2005/15/c0642.html

Porper · 16 December 2005

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

wayneL said:
I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.

The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.

The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.

Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.

Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks

Cheers

I can't disagree with that.The difference is whether you have time to look for E.Wave counts etc.I think if you work full time it can get too time consuming, so your stop loss maybe has to be a bit wider to take the everyday fluctuations.

If I were a professional trader I would certainly be looking at it differently.

Maybe in a year or so

As for drawdown, well as I understand it, tighter stops = less percentage of winners, better win/loss ratio, less drawdown, bigger profits. No lose situation in theory anyway.

MalteseBull · 22 December 2005

Gold Price in 2006

Hi everyone,
I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
Just regarding gold..
I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year..
I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..

Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.

have a merry christmas and a happy new year

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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